How good can Tee Higgins be?

[Murdock2420]

In an effort to find new Bengal topics to discuss as well as being a Clemson homer myself, wanted to have a real discussion about just how good Higgins can become.

Let's remember the stats from year 1:

67 rec 908 yards 13.6 yards per rec 6 TDs

Historically, WRs take the first year to adjust and then start to improve, there have been exceptions such as Justin Jefferson last season, and even A.J. in his first year.

But normally, you see a rookie WR start a little slow as they adjust to the game speed and then things start to click mid season and into year two.

For example, compare Higgins stat line to this. 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TDs. Those are the numbers of DK Metcalf in his first year before he went off for 1300 yards this year.

Things to consider in Higgins favor:

Burrow wasn't here all season for him and he still had a 900 yard season.

He didn't play week one and had only a single target in the season finale. So, 67 and 908 was in 14 games.


Things that are cause for concern:

While he ran a 4.43 40 at this Pro Day, he didn't show break away speed on the field last season.

Route running still needs to improve.


So, what are your expectations for Tee? What is his ceiling?

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 07:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: In an effort to find new Bengal topics to discuss as well as being a Clemson homer myself, wanted to have a real discussion about just how good Higgins can become.

Let's remember the stats from year 1:

67 rec 908 yards 13.6 yards per rec 6 TDs

Historically, WRs take the first year to adjust and then start to improve, there have been exceptions such as Justin Jefferson last season, and even A.J. in his first year.

But normally, you see a rookie WR start a little slow as they adjust to the game speed and then things start to click mid season and into year two.

For example, compare Higgins stat line to this. 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TDs. Those are the numbers of DK Metcalf in his first year before he went off for 1300 yards this year.

Things to consider in Higgins favor:

Burrow wasn't here all season for him and he still had a 900 yard season.

He didn't play week one and had only a single target in the season finale. So, 67 and 908 was in 14 games.


Things that are cause for concern:

While he ran a 4.43 40 at this Pro Day, he didn't show break away speed on the field last season.

Route running still needs to improve.


So, what are your expectations for Tee? What is his ceiling?

Tee ran an official 4.54 at his Pro Day.  I think the 4.43 was someone's bad hand time.

He also played 15 snaps on offense in week 1, so he did play.

He has great hands and is good with contested catches, but struggles to get separation.  That's the big reason why he fell off after Burrow went down, as Allen simply doesn't have the ability to thread the needle like Burrow can.  He's also good at generating some extra yards after the catch.  He's not a guy that's going to make a bunch of guys miss and take it to the house, but he'll get you 4-5 yards of YAC consistently, which can be the difference between moving the chains or sending in the punter.  He's agile, especially for his size, but lacks burst.  He will really need to become a great technical route runner to generate separation given his lack of speed and burst.  Ball security is an issue, though.

At the end of the day, I think his best fit is as a high end #2.  I'll catch heat for that, but his lack of burst and top end speed are going to keep him from being a high end #1.  The only Top 10 WR from this last year to not officially clock in the sub 4.5 range was Davonte Adams at 4.51, which is right on the edge.  If he polishes up his route running, I think he will dominate CB2's in single coverage, but I don't see him being able to win against the consistent double teams and/or top CB's he'll see as a WR1.

[J24]

He is worthy of being #1 WR on a team and will only get better from here on out. He looks a lot faster than the 4.6 he ran at the combine last year. The sky is the limit for him Burrow as a QB WR duo.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-12-2021, 07:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Things that are cause for concern:

While he ran a 4.43 40 at this Pro Day, he didn't show break away speed on the field last season.

Route running still needs to improve.


So, what are your expectations for Tee? What is his ceiling?

I agree with all the good, so I’ll just touch on some of the “concerns.” There seems to be some discrepancy on what he actually ran at his pro day. I’ve mostly seen his two 40’s at 4.54 and 4.56.

https://theclemsoninsider.com/2020/03/12/higgins-surprised-he-impressed-so-many-at-pro-day/

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tee-higgins-testing-numbers-only-confirm-what-we-knew/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-evaluating-on-field-speed-for-henry-ruggs-and-other-top-wide-receiver-prospects/

The only place I can find with a claim of 4.43 is a single tweet from PFF, but I’m guessing that’s wrong. Not the biggest deal or anything, but 4.43 would make him faster than AJ at the 2011 combine (4.48), and both my eyes and everything I can find (outside that one tweet) tell me AJ was a bit faster coming out.

He also had more drops last year than I would have liked, but not enough for me to question his hands. I think he can clean that up.

One thing I don’t see brought up much is that despite being awful, AJ was still in fact drawing some CB1’s in at least a few games. I know the Browns had Ward on him, and Philly with Slay off the top off my head. If we don’t go WR at 5, it will be interesting to see how Tee does as “the guy” in an offense for entire season. In a perfect world Mixon is a huge factor, but we all know how Taylor likes to run his offense.

[NATI BENGALS]

He is set to be the leading receiver in the AFC North for the next few years.

[schroomytunes]

I think he can be a top 20 WR, regardless of #1/2. No he doesn't have game breaking speed but he has alot of everything else, and with a healthy JB I can see him posting yearly lines of 80 catches, 1200yds, 9TD's 15 yds/rec.

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 07:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Tee ran an official 4.54 at his Pro Day.  I think the 4.43 was someone's bad hand time.

He also played 15 snaps on offense in week 1, so he did play.

He has great hands and is good with contested catches, but struggles to get separation.  That's the big reason why he fell off after Burrow went down, as Allen simply doesn't have the ability to thread the needle like Burrow can.  He's also good at generating some extra yards after the catch.  He's not a guy that's going to make a bunch of guys miss and take it to the house, but he'll get you 4-5 yards of YAC consistently, which can be the difference between moving the chains or sending in the punter.  He's agile, especially for his size, but lacks burst.  He will really need to become a great technical route runner to generate separation given his lack of speed and burst.  Ball security is an issue, though.

At the end of the day, I think his best fit is as a high end #2.  I'll catch heat for that, but his lack of burst and top end speed are going to keep him from being a high end #1.  The only Top 10 WR from this last year to not officially clock in the sub 4.5 range was Davonte Adams at 4.51, which is right on the edge.  If he polishes up his route running, I think he will dominate CB2's in single coverage, but I don't see him being able to win against the consistent double teams and/or top CB's he'll see as a WR1.

Fair on the 40 time, I just did a quick google search to see what it was and the 40 was from a PFF tweet Nico mentions below. I didn't really dig any deeper because on the field, he certainly didn't have that break away speed.

I have to agree with the lack of speed being cause for concern, unless he gets his route running polished up the way Housh used to do it. Then you don't have to be super fast, more that instant quickness and change of direction that allows you a chance to get open.

(04-12-2021, 07:56 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I agree with all the good, so I’ll just touch on some of the “concerns.” There seems to be some discrepancy on what he actually ran at his pro day. I’ve mostly seen his two 40’s at 4.54 and 4.56.

https://theclemsoninsider.com/2020/03/12/higgins-surprised-he-impressed-so-many-at-pro-day/

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tee-higgins-testing-numbers-only-confirm-what-we-knew/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-evaluating-on-field-speed-for-henry-ruggs-and-other-top-wide-receiver-prospects/

The only place I can find with a claim of 4.43 is a single tweet from PFF, but I’m guessing that’s wrong. Not the biggest deal or anything, but 4.43 would make him faster than AJ at the 2011 combine (4.48), and both my eyes and everything I can find (outside that one tweet) tell me AJ was a bit faster coming out.

He also had more drops last year than I would have liked, but not enough for me to question his hands. I think he can clean that up.

One thing I don’t see brought up much is that despite being awful, AJ was still in fact drawing some CB1’s in at least a few games. I know the Browns had Ward on him, and Philly with Slay off the top off my head. If we don’t go WR at 5, it will be interesting to see how Tee does as “the guy” in an offense for entire season. In a perfect world Mixon is a huge factor, but we all know how Taylor likes to run his offense.

You are 100% right about the PFF tweet. When I googled the 40 time, it was the first one I saw and I was like... really, he didn't look that fast on the field.

The one thing he may have going for him against top CBs is that he is good with contested catches. He did well at Clemson using his body to shield off defenders and make tough catches, just need to see that translate more to the NFL.

I think the drops will decrease as he gets more reps and more comfortable. 

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 07:57 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: He is set to be the leading receiver in the AFC North for the next few years.

Even if OBJ stays in Cleveland? 

I love Higgins, but Landry and OBJ is a pain in the ass for defenses.

[Shake n Blake]

Anquan Boldin ran a 4.7 and was a #1 for years. 4.4 speed isn't necessary to being a #1 WR.

We need speed in our WR core, but it isn't necessary for a guy to post WR1 production.

Chad Johnson was a 4.58 guy...but we had Chris Henry as another guy who could burn secondaries.

FYI...this is just going to be a Chase/Sewell thread in disguise, because the people who are more sold on Higgins are going to be Sewell guys, and vice versa.

[Tony]

Guy has star power... He's a definite #1

[*bfine32*]

Depends....

Do you want Chase at #5OA?

[Tony]

(04-12-2021, 08:18 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Even if OBJ stays in Cleveland? 

I love Higgins, but Landry and OBJ is a pain in the ass for defenses.

OBJ has been a failure in Cleveland... He had 1 really good game against WJ3 and that's about it..

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 08:28 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Anquan Boldin ran a 4.7 and was a #1 for years. 4.4 speed isn't necessary to being a #1 WR.

We need speed in our WR core, but it isn't necessary for a guy to post WR1 production.

Chad Johnson was a 4.58 guy...but we had Chris Henry as another guy who could burn secondaries.

FYI...this is just going to be a Chase/Sewell thread in disguise, because the people who are more sold on Higgins are going to be Sewell guys, and vice versa.

No no no no!!!! 

This is a place to hide from that debate.

You bring up a great point with Boldin though. He was a threat with great routes and using his body well.

(04-12-2021, 08:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Depends....

Do you want Chase at #5OA?

No no no... not the topic!

Higgins development makes this team better no matter who they draft. The question is can he develop into a real number 1 target or will he be more of the Housh type of WR?

[lone bengal]

I think Higgins can be a great #2 and has the potential to be a good number 1. When you think about it Higgins put up 900 yards and 6 TD’s with Joe Burrow missing half the season and guys like Brandon Allen were throwing him the ball. I think if Burrow played the whole year Higgins would have had 1’000 yards receiving and more than 6 TD’s.

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 08:33 PM)Tony Wrote: OBJ has been a failure in Cleveland... He had 1 really good game against WJ3 and that's about it..

Certainly wasn't as on pace with his Giants days but his first season he went over 1000 yards with Baker looking hit or miss.

Last season when Baker seemed less streaky we will call it, OBJ was hurt.

Just figure if Baker plays like he did last year and OBJ is healthy and Landry is there, he might rebound. He is still super talented.

[SunsetBengal]

Higgins will be every bit as good as the OL will allow him to be.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-12-2021, 08:33 PM)Tony Wrote: OBJ has been a failure in Cleveland... He had 1 really good game against WJ3 and that's about it..

So how you perform against WJ3 is the measuring stick? Lol I guess prime AB was a bum then...

[*jason*]

I think Tee Higgins resembled a rookie DK Metcalf lady year. He's slower, and maybe not as strong, but it's close. I think he's a future top 10 guy at his position.

[Gdale_Bengal]

I feel like he is Marvin Jones all over again.

He isn’t really a #1 WR, but he will give you a few games that will make him look like a #1.

He is going to improve each of his first few years in the league, but his speed really is a problem because he won’t separate well or CBS will catch up to him from behind more frequently.

I’d call him a fringe #1, but lacks the separation to really be elite.

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 08:37 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: No no no no!!!! 

This is a place to hide from that debate.

You bring up a great point with Boldin though. He was a threat with great routes and using his body well.


No no no... not the topic!

Higgins development makes this team better no matter who they draft. The question is can he develop into a real number 1 target or will he be more of the Housh type of WR?

Boldin has been a great #2 or the best of a bad WR corps, though.

He was #2 behind Fitzgerald all but one year in Arizona.  He never had a 1000 yard season in Baltimore.  He had a couple of 1000 yard seasons in SF, but was nowhere near being a top WR1.