How good can Tee Higgins be?

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 10:57 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I never brought up Tee’s 40 time. I said he was plenty fast enough and then gave a few examples of top WRs who ran a 4.5 because you said there weren’t many. That is where the forty came from.

The difference between a 4.54 and 4.48 is absolutely not huge. If it was, John Ross would have been a god. Pure speed, and especially forty times are incredibly overrated. What matters is short area quickness, footwork and route running. You can’t maintain your top speed in and out of breaks. Chad ran a 4.57, but he was elite. Chad had incredible footwork, route running and quickness.

If you want to make a complaint on Tee about him not being very quick then that’s fine. Tee has other attributes that make him valuable, like his strength and route running. However, his speed is plenty fast enough and acting like a .06 second difference in a forty is huge is just silly. Tee has the prototypical frame to play X in this league, and a successful one at that. Saying otherwise because there is some imaginary speed threshold is silly.

I included Pro Day times in my sub 4.5 statement.  You're the one that tried to change the criteria to only guys who ran sub 4.5 at the combine.  Either way you slice it, all the guys you mentioned ran faster than Tee except the guy with the bad knee.

Acceleration is a big part of running the 40, though.  You accelerate out of your breaks.  You also have to maintain that separation out of your breaks by running in a straight line, which is where you need that speed to maintain separation.  There's a reason why NFL GM's take it seriously.  Chad was drafted 20 years ago.  The game has changed a lot since then.

Tee is not a great route runner, yet.  He is good at contested catches, but he wasn't even in the top 100 in Separation per Next Gen Stats.  There's a reason he disappeared when Burrow went down.  Allen can't thread the needle to him when he's covered like Burrow can.  

I heard all last off-season how speed is overrated in all those Auden Tate threads last year. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-12-2021, 07:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: In an effort to find new Bengal topics to discuss as well as being a Clemson homer myself, wanted to have a real discussion about just how good Higgins can become.

Let's remember the stats from year 1:

67 rec 908 yards 13.6 yards per rec 6 TDs

Historically, WRs take the first year to adjust and then start to improve, there have been exceptions such as Justin Jefferson last season, and even A.J. in his first year.

But normally, you see a rookie WR start a little slow as they adjust to the game speed and then things start to click mid season and into year two.

For example, compare Higgins stat line to this. 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TDs. Those are the numbers of DK Metcalf in his first year before he went off for 1300 yards this year.

Things to consider in Higgins favor:

Burrow wasn't here all season for him and he still had a 900 yard season.

He didn't play week one and had only a single target in the season finale. So, 67 and 908 was in 14 games.


Things that are cause for concern:

While he ran a 4.43 40 at this Pro Day, he didn't show break away speed on the field last season.

Route running still needs to improve.


So, what are your expectations for Tee? What is his ceiling?

Yesterday, i cued up all of Higgins pass plays on gamepass and there's more than a few where he "broke away" from the defender and his route running was actually really good. 

Not just picking on your post. He has the look of a solid #1 and if he's still improving, there's really no questions about him. 

If you look at his games with Burrow from game #2 to #9, when he started to be targeted more, he was 603 yds and 4 tds in those games. I don't see any reason he couldn't improve and be a 1200+ yd, 10(ish) td receiver for the next several years. 

He had a bit of an issue with the dropsies on some easy passes but i think that should improve with experience. I don't think it was as much a 'hand size' issue as it was concentration. 

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 11:07 PM)bengaloo Wrote: Well I would definitely believe Bill Walsh over the guys on the NFL network, which is where I heard the 4.7 time once. I remember one of them saying he ran a 4.7 at some point. But the thing is, I bet every WR could run a different time on any given day. We all have our good days and bad even elite athletes, and just another reason I dont put too much stock in 40 times for WR's unless its insanely slow or they dont have Auden Tate's size, hands and reach. 

It's a tool.  Some guys play faster than they time.  Some play slower.  In Tee's case, his 40 looks about like the speed he plays at, a little below average.  It's important for evaluation because there's a lot of college DB's that will make a 4.55 guy look like a burner on film.

The other part is that there's a good deal of training that goes into it, because it can drastically impact a guy's draft stock.  So, you can get get an idea of work ethic and coachability from it. 

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 11:47 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yesterday, i cued up all of Higgins pass plays on gamepass and there's more than a few where he "broke away" from the defender and his route running was actually really good. 

Not just picking on your post. He has the look of a solid #1 and if he's still improving, there's really no questions about him. 

If you look at his games with Burrow from game #2 to #9, when he started to be targeted more, he was 603 yds and 4 tds in those games. I don't see any reason he couldn't improve and be a 1200+ yd, 10(ish) td receiver for the next several years. 

He had a bit of an issue with the dropsies on some easy passes but i think that should improve with experience. I don't think it was as much a 'hand size' issue as it was concentration. 

Trust me, as a Clemson fan I want nothing more then to see Tee be a legit number one and be awesome for us. Just wanted to give us something new to talk about for awhile around here and wanted to be fair that his 40 time and some of his route running wasn't near the top tier. 

However, great WRs come in all shapes and sizes. I really believe that the thing that separates the greatest from the next level below them isn't some freakish ability (all these guys have legit skills), it is a willingness to put in the work, have that high football IQ, and then get the right coaching. Tee has a chance to be special as I think the longer he and Burrow are together the more of a rhythm they will get into and it should help both of them. 

Wes Welker was never the fastest, or strongest WR in the league but that dude had Brady tossing him the ball, in a great offensive scheme and he worked his ass off. Tee has the QB, I think he has the work ethic (we will see) and weirdly enough, the Bengals have done well coaching up WRs not named John Ross.

[*bfine32*]

(04-12-2021, 11:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: I included Pro Day times in my sub 4.5 statement.  You're the one that tried to change the criteria to only guys who ran sub 4.5 at the combine.  Either way you slice it, all the guys you mentioned ran faster than Tee except the guy with the bad knee.

Acceleration is a big part of running the 40, though.  You accelerate out of your breaks.  You also have to maintain that separation out of your breaks by running in a straight line, which is where you need that speed to maintain separation.  There's a reason why NFL GM's take it seriously.  Chad was drafted 20 years ago.  The game has changed a lot since then.

Tee is not a great route runner, yet.  He is good at contested catches, but he wasn't even in the top 100 in Separation per Next Gen Stats.  There's a reason he disappeared when Burrow went down.  Allen can't thread the needle to him when he's covered like Burrow can.  

I heard all last off-season how speed is overrated in all those Auden Tate threads last year. 

Is it the same reason Boyd disappeared?

[NATI BENGALS]

(04-12-2021, 11:47 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yesterday, i cued up all of Higgins pass plays on gamepass and there's more than a few where he "broke away" from the defender and his route running was actually really good. 

Not just picking on your post. He has the look of a solid #1 and if he's still improving, there's really no questions about him. 

If you look at his games with Burrow from game #2 to #9, when he started to be targeted more, he was 603 yds and 4 tds in those games. I don't see any reason he couldn't improve and be a 1200+ yd, 10(ish) td receiver for the next several years. 

He had a bit of an issue with the dropsies on some easy passes but i think that should improve with experience. I don't think it was as much a 'hand size' issue as it was concentration. 

It’s laughable that people trying to say he can’t be a #1 because he isn’t 0.06 seconds faster and didn’t make Brandon Allen look like Joe Burrow.

The type of production he had for a second round rookie WR was absolutely outstanding and things should only get better.

[sandwedge]

Tee will only be as good as he wants to be. He has all the tools to be a superstar in this league, just needs to work at it.

[fredtoast]

(04-12-2021, 10:46 PM)Whatever Wrote:  The 4.48 guy has the speed to maintain separation out of his break against an average CB.  The 4.54 guy will get caught by the average CB's make up speed, meaning the QB has a much tighter window to get the ball out.

Elapsed time has nothing to do with top speed.  Any fan of drag racing knows this.  That is why tall WRs often have deceptively slow 40 times.  They are a little slower at the start but much faster at top speed.  Justin Gatlin used to beat Usain Bolt through the first forty yards of the hundred yard dash but Bolt had more top end speed and would blow past him over the final 60.

I have been saying this for years.  Top speed is MUCH more important than elapsed time for WRs.  At drag races they give you both numbers for a car running the 1/4 mile, i.e. "elapsed time" and "trap speed" which is the the cars top speed when crossing the finish line.  The combine should list "top speed" for WRs instead of elapsed 40 times.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-12-2021, 10:46 PM)Whatever Wrote: So we're going to compare Tee's 40 time from his Pro Day to other guys' combine times even though everyone knows most players run faster at their Pro Day?  Since we only have Tee's 40 from his Pro Day, the only fair comparison is other Pro Day times.  

4.5 is considered average for WR's and CB's.  The difference between 4.48 and 4.54 is huge.  The 4.48 guy has the speed to maintain separation out of his break against an average CB.  The 4.54 guy will get caught by the average CB's make up speed, meaning the QB has a much tighter window to get the ball out.

No. Stop it with the damn separation argument again...

Some guys come out of the gate quick, some guys build speed. A 40 time is not one-size-fits-all. And a 40 time doesn't say anything about acceleration out of a break. 

[fredtoast]

(04-12-2021, 11:39 PM)Whatever Wrote:  he wasn't even in the top 100 in Separation per Next Gen Stats. 

That stat is a joke,

Drew Sample had the 6th highest separation stat in the entire league last year (3.9) which was better than every All-Pro WR.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-13-2021, 12:01 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: It’s laughable that people trying to say he can’t be a #1 because he isn’t 0.06 seconds faster and didn’t make Brandon Allen look like Joe Burrow.

The type of production he had for a second round rookie WR was absolutely outstanding and things should only get better.

Yup.

I was going to have this in another post that i decided against, so i might as well throw it in here.

Out of 49 qualifiers (50% of max snaps), he placed; (Rookies (7); Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Brandon Aiyuk)


27th most targeted (4th among rookies)
36th catch% 63.8 (5th among rookies)
19th qb rating 106.4 (3rd among rookies)
11th(most) in contested catches--tied with JJ, JJSS and Diggs, less than Hopkins and Metcalf (1st (T) among rookies)
42nd contested catch% 34.3 (3rd among rookies)
27th in YAC (4th among rookies)
16th in Y/rec (4th among rookies)
19th in TDs (3rd among rookies)
26th in yards (3rd among rookies)
29th in rec (3rd among rookies)
25th in yards per route run (3rd among rookies)
16th in average depth of target (3rd among rookies)

That comes out to a 24.4 average placement (overall) and 3.2 among the 7 rookies that qualified. A rookie receiver, playing almost half the year with Allen and Finley and he's pretty much "average" among all the rest. 

I'll take it, with room to grow.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-13-2021, 01:31 AM)fredtoast Wrote: That stat is a joke,

Drew Sample had the 6th highest separation stat in the entire league last year (3.9) which was better than every All-Pro WR.

Probably because he was a check down, and most of his routes were less than 10 yards.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Explanation from Nextgenstats

Average Separation (SEP)
The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.

That’s why there’s a bunch of TE’s at the top of the list. Just means they were check downs and didn’t have anyone covering them in close proximity.

I’d say it’s more useful to look at for WR’s who are running longer routes, and trying to separate coming out of breaks. Not so much for a guy like Sample who basically just turned around after about 5-8 yards to make most of his catches.

I don’t really see how it’s a “joke.” It’s pretty concrete and scientific stuff...

20–30 ultra-wide band receivers
2–3 radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags installed into the players’ shoulder pads
RFID tags on officials, pylons, sticks, chains, and in the ball

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-12-2021, 08:28 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: FYI...this is just going to be a Chase/Sewell thread in disguise, because the people who are more sold on Higgins are going to be Sewell guys, and vice versa.

Nah, I am not sold on Higgins as a #1, but I still think Sewell has to be the pick if he's here. Protect Burrow.

(04-12-2021, 09:04 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: I feel like he is Marvin Jones all over again.

Marvin Jones, but Higgins came in more polished with an initial higher floor (hence why he was a 2nd rounder rather than a 5th).

But yeah, for the most part I think they're both the "real good #2, not good enough #1" type guys. I do wonder about the fact that Higgins didn't reach 80 yards in any game the Bengals allowed less than 30 points in.

(04-12-2021, 11:31 PM)bfine32 Wrote: He's a piece. He's never going to be a Top 10, but he's going to give Joe a reliable target.

Agreed. He'll be a good WR, and should be good piece for at least a second contract, doesn't meant you shouldn't look for that #1 sometime in the future, though.

[PDub80]

I don't know if anyone outside of the Higgins household was yelling at the TV for the Bengals to take Tee when the draft reopened on day 2 last year. I was in genuine shock when the Bengals did it. LOVED the pick and I am thrilled with how he played as a rookie.

A lot of mock drafts had Tee all over the map, but I thought he was the 1st or 2nd best guy, right there with Justin Jefferson, which is who I had hoped would fall.

How good can Tee Higgins be? Wildly good. I think Tee Higgins' game would translate to any offense in the NFL and keep him on the field. He is THAT good. I think he would make for an awesome piece of a WR tandem. He has long speed. I think wayyyyy too much has been made about his 40 time. And the SEP numbers, while I think are interesting, don't tell the entire story. Things need to be taken into consideration with that: Type of offense being run, routes being run, etc.

I'm not sure if Higgins has the quickness or suddenness to be the #1 in the offense the Bengals are running right now, which seems to be a hybrid of LSU's offense mixed with the Rams. It is NOT conventional, but they can do it because if Burrow. Be is why I say that...

In watching film studies of LSU's offense and what the Bengals did last year, specifically, a tremendous amount of the pass plays are run off of quick QB decisions/reads and queues based on declaring the defense and then pulling the trigger on a throw based on where 1 or 2 defensive pieces move in reaction to the routes.

The offense is literally:
- Use motion to force the D to declare man or zone.
- Reset/check into the correct play/configure routes based off of that.
- Watch X or Y positional reaction to route.
- Throw to spot bases on that.
- Rinse & Repeat

^ THIS IS WHY BURROW IS AMAZING. He is so smart that he can just call the offense himself on the fly, completely move the pieces of the offense around, and then reconstruct the plays as desired on literally EVERY SINGLE PLAY. It's as if ZT draws a concept on an etch a sketch and puts the personnel on the field for Joe to work with. Joe draws on the etch a sketch and then, based on how the defense reacts, he can run that exact play, check into a different play with that same look.... or he shakes the thing up, erases it, and redraws the right play... all before the play clock expires. This is why you see so many pieces moving ore snap and Burrow moving guys around and talking to them. He is just drawing the play he wants right before our eyes in real time.

Uzomah eluded to this last camp when he talked about Burrow checking the offense into things he didn't know were possible from different formations... in real time on the fly. He literally sounded astounded by how it actually worked in an interview after their first live scrimmage in camp. Until then, he hadn't experienced that.

Due to Burrow being wildly intelligent, quck & confident to make a decisuon, and super accurate, this is why he was (if I recall) the best QB in the league (or top 3 or something) in throws under 20 yards while healthy. This type of offense with Burrow is virtually impossible to just flat out stop without the Bengals or Burrow being the ones to make a mistake: Fumble, sack, missed throw, or a drop. Rarely can teams react fast enough... or just guess... to be able to reliable shut that down. Downside is that not just any QB can run that offense. At least not well.

Back to Higgins: There is a role for him in THAT type of scheme, but he is never going to be the featured guy. Looking at LSUs roster makeup, it's easy to see what role a long striding, longer player would have and what role the quicker short space guys would have.

- Boyd will always do extremely will in this type of offense due to short space quickness, smarts, and hands. He has the Justin Jefferson role. I see them as similar players.

- Higgins would be the Terrace Marshall role in the routes, which are longer stretch routes, outlets, etc. If you watch the tape breakdowns explaining the offense and how it works  you can kind of see how the different pieces and player types fit. They are interchangeable, yet kind of specific to each skill set.

- The Bengals do not have a guy on the roster to reliably take medium range passes and turn them into long passes by making the first defender miss or hitting a really quick slant through traffic and bursting through for a long gain while blocks are happening all around them - out running people in/through traffic. That is NOT Tee Higgins' game. That is NOT Tyler Boyd's game... although both are good with the ball in their hands.

I think they asked AJ Green to do that job last year and he HATED it. Nor did he have the burst or soeed for it any more. A lot of short/medium pass and run to space. Lap & Hoard discussed that on the Bengals Booth podcast. AJ Green hated that role in that system, was bored, felt like it wasn't for him and kind of half assed it a bit (paraphrasing, but pretty close to that).

BTW, the offensive line not giving much time really had to be tough with this. However, Joe processes so quickly, this all worked ok. But, with a little time, could be wildly productive.

I don't see Higgins talent being wasted at all in this offense. He is going to catch a lot of balls for a lot of yards and get into the end zone, but he is going to do that by beating up on opposing teams who choose to roll off to another guy who the opposing DC deems more dangerous or who choose to take away another player 1st post snap after the above offense is executed.

Personally, I find offenses like that really fun to watch. Tee Higgins is a tough kid and I think his physicality and willingness to help the team in that way are grossly underrated.

Side Note: I would LOVE to see a big time TE in this type of offense. I still think a light will come on for Sample, who at times has flashed. But I wouldn't be upset with a true TE who can black AND catch the football, make a move, and turn up field.

[TJ528]

(04-12-2021, 07:56 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I agree with all the good, so I’ll just touch on some of the “concerns.” There seems to be some discrepancy on what he actually ran at his pro day. I’ve mostly seen his two 40’s at 4.54 and 4.56.

https://theclemsoninsider.com/2020/03/12/higgins-surprised-he-impressed-so-many-at-pro-day/

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tee-higgins-testing-numbers-only-confirm-what-we-knew/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-evaluating-on-field-speed-for-henry-ruggs-and-other-top-wide-receiver-prospects/

The only place I can find with a claim of 4.43 is a single tweet from PFF, but I’m guessing that’s wrong. Not the biggest deal or anything, but 4.43 would make him faster than AJ at the 2011 combine (4.48), and both my eyes and everything I can find (outside that one tweet) tell me AJ was a bit faster coming out.

He also had more drops last year than I would have liked, but not enough for me to question his hands. I think he can clean that up.

One thing I don’t see brought up much is that despite being awful, AJ was still in fact drawing some CB1’s in at least a few games. I know the Browns had Ward on him, and Philly with Slay off the top off my head. If we don’t go WR at 5, it will be interesting to see how Tee does as “the guy” in an offense for entire season. In a perfect world Mixon is a huge factor, but we all know how Taylor likes to run his offense.

You make a lot of great points.  My personal opinion is that between him and AJ their rookie years AJ by far had the more stellar rookie year.  AJ could separate from the DB's, AJ also by the 2nd half of the season started drawing the best CB to cover him.  I've said all along this team needs a 1WR.  They currently have no one that can spread the field with speed.  No one who's a home run threat.   Tyler and Tee both are 2WR IMO.  I said that before.   

Thats my biggest issue with this upcoming draft.  If you take Sewell then my best guess is you'll probably end up with another top end 2WR.  We sure as hell aren't going to spend the money on a 1WR in free agency.  So does 3 2WR work in a Zac Taylor offense?  or does a Zac Taylor offense work in general lol...sorry...

[KillerGoose]

(04-12-2021, 11:18 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: I love Tee, but you seriously comparing the two right now is what is silly. I can’t even take you seriously now. Just put him in the HOF already if you feel that way. I’m sure I can find plenty of catches where CJ took it to the house after a long bomb or open field in front of him. So far Tee has 0 of those. Sorry, for not crowning the dude the next Jerry Rice.

Your reading comprehension needs work, bud. I’m not comparing Tee to Calvin. Tee is nowhere near Calvin. I’m pointing out how absolutely ludicrous what you said is. You said the difference between him being a great #1 or otherwise is that he has gotten caught from behind.

I’m saying that is stupid, Calvin was caught from behind too. If your criteria for being great is to be really fast and not get caught from behind, then that’s your criteria. I’m arguing that this isn’t what is necessary to be a great football player.

[Big_Ern]

(04-13-2021, 01:31 AM)fredtoast Wrote: That stat is a joke,

Drew Sample had the 6th highest separation stat in the entire league last year (3.9) which was better than every All-Pro WR.

Maybe they don't bother guarding him...

[KillerGoose]

(04-12-2021, 11:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: I included Pro Day times in my sub 4.5 statement.  You're the one that tried to change the criteria to only guys who ran sub 4.5 at the combine.  Either way you slice it, all the guys you mentioned ran faster than Tee except the guy with the bad knee.

Acceleration is a big part of running the 40, though.  You accelerate out of your breaks.  You also have to maintain that separation out of your breaks by running in a straight line, which is where you need that speed to maintain separation.  There's a reason why NFL GM's take it seriously.  Chad was drafted 20 years ago.  The game has changed a lot since then.

Tee is not a great route runner, yet.  He is good at contested catches, but he wasn't even in the top 100 in Separation per Next Gen Stats.  There's a reason he disappeared when Burrow went down.  Allen can't thread the needle to him when he's covered like Burrow can.  

I heard all last off-season how speed is overrated in all those Auden Tate threads last year. 

You mentioned Tee’s Pro Day at the very beginning. In your sub 4.5 comment, all you said was that Davante Adams was the only top WR to officially run a 4.51.

The official numbers that are used are typically the combine numbers. They’re laser timed and much more accurate. They are also ran at the official NFL event. I was pointing that out.

At the end of the day, Tee is likely penciled in as the starter at the X. He may not have the prototypical speed of an X, but he has several of the other qualities and will (hopefully) continue developing. He is certainly fast enough, which he has already displayed. His rookie season gave plenty of reasons to be excited.

[XenoMorph]

that depends on coaching and health of the QB