How good can Tee Higgins be?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-12-2021, 11:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: I included Pro Day times in my sub 4.5 statement.  You're the one that tried to change the criteria to only guys who ran sub 4.5 at the combine.  Either way you slice it, all the guys you mentioned ran faster than Tee except the guy with the bad knee.

Acceleration is a big part of running the 40, though.  You accelerate out of your breaks.  You also have to maintain that separation out of your breaks by running in a straight line, which is where you need that speed to maintain separation.  There's a reason why NFL GM's take it seriously.  Chad was drafted 20 years ago.  The game has changed a lot since then.

Tee is not a great route runner, yet.  He is good at contested catches, but he wasn't even in the top 100 in Separation per Next Gen Stats.  There's a reason he disappeared when Burrow went down.  Allen can't thread the needle to him when he's covered like Burrow can.  

I heard all last off-season how speed is overrated in all those Auden Tate threads last year. 

We get it....you hate the ACC....

[BayTiger]

Tee Higgins will be a solid number 1 receiver at worst. He won't be a top 10 elite burner. He won't be the next AJ Green. What he will do is get open and make tough catches. He looks slower than Tyler Boyd but he makes more plays down field. Higgins' deceptive speed makes him an underrated deep threat.

Average separation doesn't matter in the real world. Tee Higgins plays on a football field, not a spreadsheet. Low separation probably means he's good at making contested catches and jump balls that guy's like John Ross can't make.

The only stats that matter are receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Tee put up 67/908/6 with a rookie and two backups throwing to him. Based on that he's one of the most productive rookie receivers we've ever had.

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 02:21 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I don’t really see how it’s a “joke.” It’s pretty concrete and scientific stuff...

Everytime a receiver has to slow down for an underthrown pass it makes his seperation number look bad.

Every intentional "back shoulder" throw will have low separation.

And, finally, if you look at all the downfield receivers there is really not much correlation between separation numbers and production.  Justin Jefferson has the same separation number as Higgins but I guarantee you Viking fans aren't arguing abour his ability to be an effective #1 WR.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-13-2021, 11:02 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Everytime a receiver has to slow down for an underthrown pass it makes his seperation number look bad.

Every intentional "back shoulder" throw will have low separation.

And, finally, if you look at all the downfield receivers there is really not much correlation between separation numbers and production.  Justin Jefferson has the same separation number as Higgins but I guarantee you Viking fans aren't arguing abour his ability to be an effective #1 WR.

So basically, like anything else, there are several variables and it’s not an end all be all stat. Still doesn’t make it a “joke.” Every team in the league looks at this stuff, so it obviously has value.

And ofc Minnesota fans view Jefferson as a true #1. He was part of the best college offense of all time, was a highly touted 1st round pick (who should have went even higher had he not been wrongly labeled as just a slot guy), and he put up 1400 yards as a rookie and broke franchise records held by Randy Moss.

[PDub80]

(04-13-2021, 11:02 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Everytime a receiver has to slow down for an underthrown pass it makes his seperation number look bad.

Every intentional "back shoulder" throw will have low separation.

And, finally, if you look at all the downfield receivers there is really not much correlation between separation numbers and production.  Justin Jefferson has the same separation number as Higgins but I guarantee you Viking fans aren't arguing abour his ability to be an effective #1 WR.

This would be evened out with zone defenses where guys are wide open sitting in space as well as screens. All much more common than deep passes and bock shoulder stuff.

If WR SEP didn't matter it wouldn't be tracked statistically or discussed. I don't understand the idea you have that all WRs are the same in terms of creating or generating space for themselves. They time things like short space cone & shuttle drills for a reason.

In the game of inches, .1 yards of separation matters. Higgins is at 2.5 & Jefferson 2.6.

Also, Adam Thielen is the Vikings #1 WR. And, before you quote his 2020 2.7 SEP numbers as you did in another post, he was dinged up much of 2020. 2019 his Sep was 3.0 & 2018 he was at 2.9

[BayTiger]

(04-13-2021, 11:21 AM)PDub80 Wrote: This would be evened out with zone defenses where guys are wide open sitting in space as well as screens. All much more common than deep passes and bock shoulder stuff.

If WR SEP didn't matter it wouldn't be tracked statistically or discussed. I don't understand the idea you have that all WRs are the same in terms of creating or generating space for themselves. They time things like short space cone & shuttle drills for a reason.

In the game of inches, .1 yards of separation matters.

Is WR separation discussed outside the internet and the media? I find it hard to believe that coaches gameplan around a stat that ranks Cole Beasley as the fifth best receiver in the NFL. If you go by average separation Tee Higgins is as good as Amari Cooper. Danny Amendola has higher average separation than DeAndre Hopkins, Stefan Diggs, and Davante Adams. Tyler Boyd gets more separation than DK Metcalf.

The best receivers are middle of the pack in separation because they don't need 3 yards of separation to be open. You don't throw to Alex Erickson when you need to complete a jump ball on the sideline to move the chains. You throw to Tee Higgins. Erickson doesn't catch the ball unless he's wide open with 3+ yards of separation. 

[PDub80]

(04-13-2021, 11:17 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So basically, like anything else, there are several variables and it’s not an end all be all stat. Still doesn’t make it a “joke.” Every team in the league looks at this stuff, so it obviously has value.

And ofc Minnesota fans view Jefferson as a true #1. He was part of the best college offense of all time, was a highly touted 1st round pick (who should have went even higher had he not been wrongly labeled as just a slot guy), and he put up 1400 yards as a rookie and broke franchise records held by Randy Moss.

Their #1 WR was hurt off and on all season and drew a ton of coverage. I'm not sure Jefferson puts those numbers up again with a healthy Adam Thielen and teams rolling more coverage his way.

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 11:21 AM)PDub80 Wrote: This would be evened out with zone defenses where guys are wide open sitting in space as well as screens. All much more common than deep passes and bock shoulder stuff

Thosr do not "even out" anthing. All they do is make this stat even MORE inaccrate.

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 11:21 AM)PDub80 Wrote: In the game of inches, .1 yards of separation matters. Higgins is at 2.5 & Jefferson 2.6.

This stat can not possibly be measured in "yards". Not even the greatest receiver in the league is open by an average of 3 yards on every catch.

[Whatever]

(04-13-2021, 01:30 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: No. Stop it with the damn separation argument again...

Some guys come out of the gate quick, some guys build speed. A 40 time is not one-size-fits-all. And a 40 time doesn't say anything about acceleration out of a break. 

You know, you're right.  I best the separation/speed drum to death last off-season with a large group of members that told me it didn't matter and Auden Tate was anywhere from a high end #2 to #3 WR and was going to blow up this past year.  We all know how that turned out.  

I agree to disagree rather than go down that rabbit hole again.  If Tee turns out to be a high end WR1, feel free to call me out on it and I'll gladly eat my crow.  

[*rfaulk34*]

Has anyone ever noticed that NFL teams draft players called cornerbacks, and they usually want them to be pretty fast and be able to stay with a receiver? And believe it or not, sometimes a team plays more or less zone coverage, giving WRs much more room to operate in space...

The point is, it's a statistic that too open to many variables that will skew the results. WRs don't have the same short area quickness, they don't have the same accleration out of breaks, they don't run routes the same, they're not the same with contested catches, their feet and hands are different (athletic-wise). Stats have variables. A stat like "separation" has too many variables to make it anything to hang your hat on. 

It's something to look at and rank players with but it's not anything that correlates to whether a WR is good or bad. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-13-2021, 11:43 AM)Whatever Wrote: You know, you're right.  I best the separation/speed drum to death last off-season with a large group of members that told me it didn't matter and Auden Tate was anywhere from a high end #2 to #3 WR and was going to blow up this past year.  We all know how that turned out.  

I agree to disagree rather than go down that rabbit hole again.  If Tee turns out to be a high end WR1, feel free to call me out on it and I'll gladly eat my crow.  

Re: Tate. A player has no control over his usage and targets. It's what they do while they're out there. I haven't given up on him yet. There's ways he can be used by a coach that's smarter than your average potato. 

I wouldn't call Tee a high end #1. More like a mid to lower-mid #1. 

[sandwedge]

(04-13-2021, 11:44 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Has anyone ever noticed that NFL teams draft players called cornerbacks, and they usually want them to be pretty fast and be able to stay with a receiver? And believe it or not, sometimes a team plays more or less zone coverage, giving WRs much more room to operate in space...

The point is, it's a statistic that too open to many variables that will skew the results. WRs don't have the same short area quickness, they don't have the same accleration out of breaks, they don't run routes the same, they're not the same with contested catches, their feet and hands are different (athletic-wise). Stats have variables. A stat like "separation" has too many variables to make it anything to hang your hat on. 

It's something to look at and rank players with but it's not anything that correlates to whether a WR is good or bad. 

Yet here we are again.....

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 11:43 AM)Whatever Wrote: You know, you're right.  I best the separation/speed drum to death last off-season with a large group of members that told me it didn't matter and Auden Tate was anywhere from a high end #2 to #3 WR and was going to blow up this past year.  We all know how that turned out.  

I agree to disagree rather than go down that rabbit hole again.  If Tee turns out to be a high end WR1, feel free to call me out on it and I'll gladly eat my crow.  

Well as long as you are consistent. 

For example are you really high on Drew Sample since he has the 6th highest separation in the entire league?

Because you can't claim a stat is an effective measure on some players then turn around and claim it is meaningless when it doesn't support your opinion.

[*Synric*]

(04-13-2021, 11:47 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Re: Tate. A player has no control over his usage and targets. It's what they do while they're out there. I haven't given up on him yet. There's ways he can be used by a coach that's smarter than your average potato. 

I wouldn't call Tee a high end #1. More like a mid to lower-mid #1. 

Auden Tate needs to be a more physical route runner. A guy his size you'd expect him to be but he's not... 

[PDub80]

(04-13-2021, 11:36 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thosr do not "even out" anthing. All they do is make this stat even MORE inaccrate.

(04-13-2021, 11:39 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This stat can not possibly be measured in "yards". Not even the greatest receiver in the league is open by an average of 3 yards on every catch.

So, now you know more than Nextgen Football? So, now you know more than fivethirtyeight? https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-metric-shows-how-good-nfl-receivers-are-at-creating-separation/amp/

So, now you know more than the entire NFL who puts GPS trackers on players in practice and on game day to track these exact same things?

Now I see where you're coming from... Some, Fingers In Your Ears La La Land mixed in with some lofty arrogance. The self esteem you have is incredible, and that's coming from me, who's been at 10 on the self esteem scale since I was 4. Thanks, mom.

You can directly correlate the fivethirtyeight article about SOE & NextGen. It isn't hard or some super mystery. The Bengals have NO ONE ON THE ROSTER who can take the top off of a defense. John Ross was their best hope (2.9 SEP, btw), but all he could do was run.

There is more to being a great WR than SEP/SOE, of course. No one ever said there isn't.  Or even that it's most important. It's just one stat/metric, but it can help illustrate what the Bengals are maybe missing in terms of skill set from what's on the roster. I'm sorry, but the Bengals 2 best guys are below the best guys from the rest of the league by a fair amount. In an offense designed for quick short & medium strikes with YAC tacked on, this isn't good.

Which adds another wrinkle.... SCHEME. How is ZT's scheme at breaking guys free? LSU seemed to be able to do it just fine and the Bengals have brought elements if that in. I would love to see differences between LSU based stuff & ZT stuff to compare and contrast.

[Whatever]

(04-13-2021, 12:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Well as long as you are consistent. 

For example are you really high on Drew Sample since he has the 6th highest separation in the entire league?

Because you can't claim a stat is an effective measure on some players then turn around and claim it is meaningless when it doesn't support your opinion.

I'm not as down on Sample as most.  He's not bad, just mediocre and overdrafted.  If you look at his Next Gen Stats, pretty much everything is average.  You also have to look at usage when discussing separation. Sample has a big separation because he's often a safety valve out in the flat, running TE screens, etc. Sample is basically the guy who will make the catches he's supposed to make and get the yards he's supposed to get out of them, but won't give you anything extra. On the other side, you'll have WR1's that don't have high separation numbers because they're doubled consistently and/or drawing the other team's #1 CB. 

The bigger issue is Burrow threw the 3rd highest % of passed to targets with a defender within 1 yard of them and the 5th worst expected completion % last year.  When you compare that to the numbers of playoff QB's, it quickly becomes apparent that having your QB try to repeatedly force throws in to covered targets isn't a recipe for winning football.  Beyond any individual player, the Bengals need to get dramatically better as a team in this area.

[PDub80]

(04-13-2021, 11:35 AM)BayTiger Wrote: Is WR separation discussed outside the internet and the media? I find it hard to believe that coaches gameplan around a stat that ranks Cole Beasley as the fifth best receiver in the NFL. If you go by average separation Tee Higgins is as good as Amari Cooper. Danny Amendola has higher average separation than DeAndre Hopkins, Stefan Diggs, and Davante Adams. Tyler Boyd gets more separation than DK Metcalf.

The best receivers are middle of the pack in separation because they don't need 3 yards of separation to be open. You don't throw to Alex Erickson when you need to complete a jump ball on the sideline to move the chains. You throw to Tee Higgins. Erickson doesn't catch the ball unless he's wide open with 3+ yards of separation. 

The NFL has GPS trackers on every player during games tracking this stuff. So, yes.

And the quick slot guys are going to have better SEO/SOE numbers. So are tight ends. I linked an article in response to another post regarding this all being broken down. It's really interesting and they touch on what you are asking as well as correlate a lot of things. I will leave it here as well: https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-metric-shows-how-good-nfl-receivers-are-at-creating-separation/amp/

Someone brought up Drew Sample having high SEP. That is good! But, to compare that to Deandre Hopkins makes no sense since they run routes and match up against different guys. Hopkins, fir example, is covered by the other team's best CBs while TEs get LBs, nickle guys, etc. and they are finding holes in zone coverages as well. Different routes, different guys coving routes, etc.

This is why AJ Green's 1.7 SEP number vs Hopkins 3.0 last year shows what a dumpster fire the Bengals have at WR as a group. This all came about at people clutching at their pearls, appalled that the Bengals may go WR at 5 in the draft with 1 guy, Chase, clearly the best guy... while, in contrast, there are something like, 19 or 13 or 16 or whatever O linemen rated in the top 50 prospects this year.

[Whatever]

(04-13-2021, 10:13 AM)Wyche Wrote: We get it....you hate the ACC....

Well, I love Etienne, but there's no way we can take him unless he body checks a pregnant woman in a school crosswalk and falls into the 3rd.

[*bfine32*]

If it wasn't for this board I'd never be able to fully evaluate a WR by using things such as "separation rate".

I'd have to rely on production on the field. With these new tools I can now understand why good production doesn't always count. Higgins was #3 in receiving yards by rookies last year and this was with Brandon Allen throwing to him half the year. Before I would have thought that was very good. But now I can determine he's really more more middle of the pack because of separation.