Bengals Winning Formula on Offense this Year

[TecmoBengals]

(12-20-2021, 06:37 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: No it doesn't.

There are a million things that go on during the games that dictate the outcome. You could find a common stat between any number of wins and make the same claim you are about how the run needs to be our identity. 

I saw Lance Mcalister post that we have like 6 wins where Joe Burrow has under 200 yards passing. Like what are these correlations that people are trying to make? It doesn't make any sense. 

Agreed, they are at best interesting tidbits of information but the causality might just be a stretch.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-20-2021, 06:37 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: No it doesn't.

There are a million things that go on during the games that dictate the outcome. You could find a common stat between any number of wins and make the same claim you are about how the run needs to be our identity. 

I saw Lance Mcalister post that we have like 6 wins where Joe Burrow has under 200 yards passing. Like what are these correlations that people are trying to make? It doesn't make any sense. 

Last year we threw the ball all over the place and did not run or run effectively and lost majority of time , part of that was our defense but I like the change in Taylor, he is running the ball through out the game and the balance has worked and yes the stats so that.. I will take 11 to 2 ints v 10-9 anyday and 6 wins.. who dey to that.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-20-2021, 01:18 PM)sandwedge Wrote: It would be great to smoke teams from beginning to end, but we aren't there yet. I will gladly take wins like this game. Tough, hard fought games, not sexy but shows this team can find ways to win. Personally, I think this helps the teams grow in the future.

Totally agree , we adjust to the game Oman, last year ZT got available abused for throwing too much, but we win with balance and people are upset,  makes no sense

[Interceptor]

(12-20-2021, 04:51 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Oh goodness, using BASIC for this one? 

No habla Assembler.

[KillerGoose]

(12-21-2021, 07:17 PM)Interceptor Wrote: No habla Assembler.

Eso es Assembler? Me parece BASIC pero de verdad no se mucho sobre lenguajes viajes lol

[Shake n Blake]

Normally I'd be more in favor of slinging it around, but with Chase in a giant slump and the line being subpar at best, I think balance is important.

Also, people seem to be adjusting their opinions based on wanting to see a fun pass offense with all these weapons, but I'll again say this: how many times has a team from this division dominated while throwing it 600+ times?

Maybe Pittsburgh a couple times? Maybe once with Flacco? But those years where they slung it around didn't end all that well for the most part. We're one of the only cold weather divisions with no domes.

I'm not saying we should be averaging less than 30 pass attempts. Keyword here is balance. Especially this year with the issues we've had throwing the ball lately (over the last 7 games).

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 07:30 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Eso es Assembler? Me parece BASIC pero de verdad no se mucho sobre lenguajes viajes lol

No hable espanol. Uno cerveza por favor.

[N_B]

(12-20-2021, 11:02 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: We now stand 6-0 I believe when we rush over 24 or more times and pass for less than 30. we have 11 passing tds and 2 Ints in those 6 wins, when we have thrown for 30 or more attempts we have 5 losses, in those losses i believe we have 10 Tds passing and 9 ints.

Many pointed out last year we were just throwing too much and I agree.. this year a balance offense so far is the formula for success, hope ZT keeps that formula going with tough defenses of Baltimore and Cleveland ahead.

This reminds me of a take from an ex football player in like 2003. Bravo

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-21-2021, 07:35 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Normally I'd be more in favor of slinging it around, but with Chase in a giant slump and the line being subpar at best, I think balance is important.

Also, people seem to be adjusting their opinions based on wanting to see a fun pass offense with all these weapons, but I'll again say this: how many times has a team from this division dominated while throwing it 600+ times?

Maybe Pittsburgh a couple times? Maybe once with Flacco? But those years where they slung it around didn't end all that well for the most part. We're one of the only cold weather divisions with no domes.

I'm not saying we should be averaging less than 30 pass attempts. Keyword here is balance. Especially this year with the issues we've had throwing the ball lately (over the last 7 games).

Truth, all about balance. It keeps Defenses honest and we are much less predictable when we are balanced. Plus it helps 
out Burrow when we aren't passing all the time. Can't just have D's expecting pass so they can just pin their ears back and
go after him all the time, this would be a recipe for disaster.

(12-21-2021, 07:39 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: No hable espanol. Uno cerveza por favor.

Uno cerveza el bartendro por favor...   Me like.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-20-2021, 07:16 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Last year we threw the ball all over the place and did not run or run effectively and lost majority of time , part of that was our defense but I like the change in Taylor, he is running the ball through out the game and the balance has worked and yes the stats so that.. I will take 11 to 2 ints v 10-9 anyday and 6 wins.. who dey to that.

2020: 18th in rushing attempts
2021: 15th in rushing attempts

They are rushing just 1.3 times more per game this year.

[N_B]

A non snarky take:

Take a look at our schedule in terms of total wins and losses. Then look at our record if the games ended at halftime or at the end of the third quarter. My guess is the correlation is high, especially given Zacs bad record when entering 4Q trailing.

Then, look at how we got those first half leads. Aka, what was the run/pass disparity? Were we more run or pass heavy when the game was on even footing? What was Burrows interception rate in those games? How did our YPR change? Looking at simple correlations here, while not equal to causation, at least paints a better picture than saying, “hey look, we ran more in wins. We should be running more.” Frankly, that analysis wouldn’t pass the smell test for even a junior high student

[N_B]

My guess is that it has nothing to do with how much we are running vs passing, but it’s simply a function of turnovers and burrows decision making in the flow of the game

[grampahol]

They're not perfect beings. People inherently make mistakes be it our team or the other and conversely sometimes opposing players just make great plays too. They're all paid to do this stuff even an 0-17 team. I think so much is just dumb luck. Hell, just flipping cards the odds of getting 21 every time is close to really bad if not really bad.. Even a guy who comes off the bench after sitting for half the season sometimes plays lights out and sometimes gets scorched. It's just too hard to predict without specific knowledge about said player. Kind of like the .300 hitter in baseball..over 2/3rds of the time they make an out..
All that said, some are just better athletes and most of the time the team with the better athletes is going to win. We as mere mortal fans? We just hope and guess then get pissed when it doesn't go the way we want.. 

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(12-21-2021, 06:34 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Totally agree , we adjust to the game Oman, last year ZT got available abused for throwing too much, but we win with balance and people are upset,  makes no sense

A balanced offense makes lots of sense but here’s why people are upset: Joe Burrow.

People expected Joe Burrow to pass on every play. It’s true. It’s stupid as a box of rocks but it’s true. Adding Ja’Marr Chase to the lineup promulgated this harebrained idea on steroids.

The truth is in the numbers. At LSU Joe had his best passing ratings when he threw the ball 25-35 times per game; no more. Let’s not forget LSU had Clyde Edwards-Helaire running the ball effectively too; LSU under Joe Brady was a balanced offense.

It is unrealistic for Joe Burrow to throw the ball 40+ times in the NFL. It’s not how the game works even in the pass-happy 2020s. The NFC West may be more amenable to passing every week but the Bengals play in the AFC North where the run game becomes critical late in the season.

Joe Burrow is going to be very good, maybe even elite. He has all the right characteristics to attain that level of play. Let’s understand there are times when the Bengals will have to play smash mouth football and passing will necessarily take a back seat to the run.

[Earendil]

(12-20-2021, 04:51 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Oh goodness, using BASIC for this one? 

IKR? I thought I went back in time to 1979.  Kind of like when I had to use Golang a couple of years ago. "I have to use pointers in 2019??"

Apologies if you aren't a developer and have no idea what this means...

[*ochocincos*]

(12-22-2021, 02:03 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: A balanced offense makes lots of sense but here’s why people are upset:  Joe Burrow.

People expected Joe Burrow to pass on every play.  It’s true.  It’s stupid as a box of rocks but it’s true.  Adding Ja’Marr Chase to the lineup promulgated this harebrained idea on steroids.  

The truth is in the numbers.  At LSU Joe had his best passing ratings when he threw the ball 25-35 times per game; no more.  Let’s not forget LSU had Clyde Edwards-Helaire running the ball effectively too; LSU under Joe Brady was a balanced offense.

It is unrealistic for Joe Burrow to throw the ball 40+ times in the NFL.  It’s not how the game works even in the pass-happy 2020s.  The NFC West may be more amenable to passing every week but the Bengals play in the AFC North where the run game becomes critical late in the season.

Joe Burrow is going to be very good, maybe even elite.  He has all the right characteristics to attain that level of play.  Let’s understand there are times when the Bengals will have to play smash mouth football and passing will necessarily take a back seat to the run.

I think people expected that if so much was going to be invested in the passing game (specifically with drafting Chase after drafting Higgins the year before), the team would pass more than they do.
Burrow is 15th in pass attempts at 435. Brady is at 602. Mahomes at 549. Herbert 542.

I'm not opposed to being balanced, and I like when the running game works, but I don't know if I would have drafted another WR so early if I wasn't planning to be pass-heavy.

[KillerGoose]

(12-22-2021, 05:52 PM)Earendil Wrote: IKR? I thought I went back in time to 1979.  Kind of like when I had to use Golang a couple of years ago. "I have to use pointers in 2019??"

Apologies if you aren't a developer and have no idea what this means...

Hahaha not a developer but I am a systems analyst that develops things - familiar with C#, Javascript and Python. Strongest by far is SQL, so a database guy for sure. 

[Essex Johnson]

(12-21-2021, 08:49 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 2020: 18th in rushing attempts
2021: 15th in rushing attempts

They are rushing just 1.3 times more per game this year.

The point was balance,  under Burrow last year we had one game under 30 passes, this year we have flipped that and balanced passing and rushing which has resulted in wins but has nor sacrificed points as a whole either.

[N_B]

(12-22-2021, 06:55 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: The point was balance,  under Burrow last year we had one game under 30 passes, this year we have flipped that and balanced passing and rushing which has resulted in wins but has nor sacrificed points as a whole either.

You should take the L, or just do more research

[*ochocincos*]

(12-22-2021, 06:55 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: The point was balance,  under Burrow last year we had one game under 30 passes, this year we have flipped that and balanced passing and rushing which has resulted in wins but has nor sacrificed points as a whole either.

Burrow is throwing fewer passes because the team is getting ahead more often. 11th in Points Allowed this year compared to 22nd in Points Allowed past year.

Bengals were 17th in rushing attempts last year, with 411. 25.6875 attempts per game.
This year, Bengals are 16th in rushing attempts, with 378. 27 attempts per game.