What's Tee Higgins value

[*jason*]

(06-15-2022, 10:01 PM)pally Wrote: It may not all come to money for Tee.  A receiver of his talents wants to be THE GUY which he will never be in Cincinnati as long as Chase is around.  Unlike TJ who was a prototypical slot guy and was overreaching to think he could be #1WR, Tee does have the skills and talents to be the WR1 on most teams. He was drafted here to replace AJ Green.  The team never expected to be in the position to get a player like Chase the next year.  I do not expect Tee to be a Bengal after his rookie contract.  If he is, I'll be shocked and thrilled.  He will go on to another team and finally get the recognition he deserves

Eh... I think being "the guy" is pretty synonymous with money in sports. Tee gets his targets regardless of Ja'Marr. This isn't as complicated as some are making it either. They don't have to pay Ja'Marr for a minute IF they can't afford both (they can). Worst case scenario, they pay Tee now, and let Ja'Marr finish his rookie deal. Then pay Ja'Marr and let Tee walk on the 3rd contract.

[*jason*]

(06-15-2022, 06:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Tee Higgins had the 17th most receiving yards last year.
Take out the TEs and he's 15th.
So I'd say right now he deserves to be paid as the 10th-20th WR in the league. That would put him firmly in the $15-20 mill APY range.

He did that playing injured for most of the year as well. The dude can play, and he should be a priority moving forward.

[Ell Prez]

He’s gonna get paid. No doubt. I’m pretty confident MB will pay him to keep him. He loves WR, and Higgins is everything you want. Good kid and massive talent.

This is exactly why I think they should and will let Bates walk next year. We drafted a S in the first round to replace him. They will find a way to keep Burrow, Chase, Higgins.

[Frank Booth]

(06-15-2022, 11:17 PM)jason Wrote: He did that playing injured for most of the year as well. The dude can play, and he should be a priority moving forward.

Yea he missed like 3/4 games I believe?

[CJD]

I think he'll sign for around what AJ Brown did (25MM AAV). Especially if he has a true break out year in 2022.

I think his absolute bottom is 20 MM AAV, which is what both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams makes.

[Bengal Dude]

Unless it's an extreme amount, I see the FO aggressively pursuing Tee. The Bengals were willing to make AJ and Marvin Jones the highest paid 1-2 combo after the 2015 season.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-15-2022, 06:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Tee Higgins had the 17th most receiving yards last year.
Take out the TEs and he's 15th.
So I'd say right now he deserves to be paid as the 10th-20th WR in the league. That would put him firmly in the $15-20 mill APY range.

Problem with that $15-20 range you give is that some of those guys are grouping him with are playing on old contracts, and for other guys is the age when they got those contracts.

Brandin Cooks at 12th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Michael Thomas at 13th signed his deal in 2019.
Tyler Lockett at 16th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Mike Evans at 17th signed his deal in 2018.
Robert Woods at 18th was both 28 years old when he signed his deal, and signed his deal in 2020.

There's probably a couple other examples there, but that's enough to give a good picture of the problem. If Tee Higgins signed an extension in 2023, he will be heading into his age 24 season and it will be 3, 4, or even 5 years removed from some of those other guys deals, making them a completely useless comparison. In 2018 when Mike Evans signed his extension the cap was ~$51m lower than it will be in 2023. That's not even touching the recent explosion in WR contracts this offseason. 

I think DJ Moore is about as good of a statistical and age comparison point to Tee Higgins as you'll get right now. He just signed a $20.6m/yr extension, and the cap is expected to go up $20m (or more) from this year to next with the new TV kicking in starting in 2023.

Tee probably isn't getting signed for less than $22m/yr, or more depending on how he does in 2022.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-15-2022, 03:57 PM)J24 Wrote: How much  do you think the Bengals are willing to pay him next off season? His contract is due after 2023!

I voted 20-25 million, not saying that the Bengals would be willing to pay that, but that is where is see his worth projecting another stellar season and postseason.

Would I pay it?  I would sure like to, as he is a model teammate and has a dimension not many WRs can offer while still having the downfield speed.  If I did spend it, it would likely mean I couldn't extend Boyd and might have to look hard at Mixon's deal.  That being said, I feel Tee is that much more important to the team than Boyd or Mixon.  Maybe we go "cheap" at TE?  Either way, I hope Chase and Higgins are with Joe for a very long time. 

[Ell Prez]

(06-16-2022, 06:04 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Problem with that $15-20 range you give is that some of those guys are grouping him with are playing on old contracts, and for other guys is the age when they got those contracts.

Brandin Cooks at 12th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Michael Thomas at 13th signed his deal in 2019.
Tyler Lockett at 16th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Mike Evans at 17th signed his deal in 2018.
Robert Woods at 18th was both 28 years old when he signed his deal, and signed his deal in 2020.

There's probably a couple other examples there, but that's enough to give a good picture of the problem. If Tee Higgins signed an extension in 2023, he will be heading into his age 24 season and it will be 3, 4, or even 5 years removed from some of those other guys deals, making them a completely useless comparison. In 2018 when Mike Evans signed his extension the cap was ~$51m lower than it will be in 2023. That's not even touching the recent explosion in WR contracts this offseason. 

I think DJ Moore is about as good of a statistical and age comparison point to Tee Higgins as you'll get right now. He just signed a $20.6m/yr extension, and the cap is expected to go up $20m (or more) from this year to next with the new TV kicking in starting in 2023.

Tee probably isn't getting signed for less than $22m/yr, or more depending on how he does in 2022.

Spot on my man. Everything you said is absolutely true. And taking about the cap going up- everyone always says oh we can afford so and so plus so and so because the cap is going up. The cap going up doesn’t meant we can sign more players. It means players just get more money.

But I agree Higgins will be in the 22-25M range. Chase will be 30M by the time he signs, and Burrow will be $50M.


The window is now! Because our D will suck once we sign these guys. Which we will. Maybe that’s why we drafted all these defensive players to get young cheap talent….hmmmmm??

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-16-2022, 08:48 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: Spot on my man. Everything you said is absolutely true. And taking about the cap going up- everyone always says oh we can afford so and so plus so and so because the cap is going up. The cap going up doesn’t meant we can sign more players. It means players just get more money.

But I agree Higgins will be in the 22-25M range. Chase will be 30M by the time he signs, and Burrow will be $50M.


The window is now! Because our D will suck once we sign these guys. Which we will. Maybe that’s why we drafted all these defensive players to get young cheap talent….hmmmmm??

Almost certainly more if they both continue to play at 2021 levels (or better).

Chase can't get an extension until before the 2024 season at the earliest. Justin Jefferson is going to absolutely obliterate the top tier WR market heading into 2023, so Chase will likely again be higher than that. Keep in mind that Tyreek Hill just got $30m/yr at age 28 and Davante Adams got $28m/yr at age 30.

As for Burrow, Rodgers just got $50.6m/yr and Watson just got $46m/yr. Mahomes got $45m/yr in 2020. Burrow, Herbert, and Murray are about to be the next wave of market setting contracts, with potentially Lamar Jackson added to that group if he stops constantly catching COVID and pooping himself.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Chase and Burrow don't combine for $90-100m/yr on average for their deals. That's why I agree with you the Bengals have about a 2 year window now where they need to just go for it because there'll be some changes to how the roster can be constructed after that.

[Whatever]

(06-16-2022, 06:04 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Problem with that $15-20 range you give is that some of those guys are grouping him with are playing on old contracts, and for other guys is the age when they got those contracts.

Brandin Cooks at 12th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Michael Thomas at 13th signed his deal in 2019.
Tyler Lockett at 16th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Mike Evans at 17th signed his deal in 2018.
Robert Woods at 18th was both 28 years old when he signed his deal, and signed his deal in 2020.

There's probably a couple other examples there, but that's enough to give a good picture of the problem. If Tee Higgins signed an extension in 2023, he will be heading into his age 24 season and it will be 3, 4, or even 5 years removed from some of those other guys deals, making them a completely useless comparison. In 2018 when Mike Evans signed his extension the cap was ~$51m lower than it will be in 2023. That's not even touching the recent explosion in WR contracts this offseason. 

I think DJ Moore is about as good of a statistical and age comparison point to Tee Higgins as you'll get right now. He just signed a $20.6m/yr extension, and the cap is expected to go up $20m (or more) from this year to next with the new TV kicking in starting in 2023.

Tee probably isn't getting signed for less than $22m/yr, or more depending on how he does in 2022.

$15-20 mil actually seems about right for the current high end WR2/1b market.  Mike Williams got $20 mil APY.  Williams also gets defended more like a WR1 than Tee due to his home run ability and Allen's lack of deep speed. 

[WeezyBengal]

The Tee Higgins situation has Marvin Jones written all over it. At the time we had AJ who was our #1 - kind of like Chase.

Sadly, I think Tee is as good as gone. It's just going to be too pricey especially when you have so many other guys coming up for new deals.

Maybe you can get creative by cutting/trading Boyd and freeing up that money somehow - but that is going to be tough.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-16-2022, 06:04 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Problem with that $15-20 range you give is that some of those guys are grouping him with are playing on old contracts, and for other guys is the age when they got those contracts.

Brandin Cooks at 12th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Michael Thomas at 13th signed his deal in 2019.
Tyler Lockett at 16th was 29 years old when he signed his extension.
Mike Evans at 17th signed his deal in 2018.
Robert Woods at 18th was both 28 years old when he signed his deal, and signed his deal in 2020.

There's probably a couple other examples there, but that's enough to give a good picture of the problem. If Tee Higgins signed an extension in 2023, he will be heading into his age 24 season and it will be 3, 4, or even 5 years removed from some of those other guys deals, making them a completely useless comparison. In 2018 when Mike Evans signed his extension the cap was ~$51m lower than it will be in 2023. That's not even touching the recent explosion in WR contracts this offseason. 

I think DJ Moore is about as good of a statistical and age comparison point to Tee Higgins as you'll get right now. He just signed a $20.6m/yr extension, and the cap is expected to go up $20m (or more) from this year to next with the new TV kicking in starting in 2023.

Tee probably isn't getting signed for less than $22m/yr, or more depending on how he does in 2022.

Yes, some of those guys in that range were signed a few years ago, the cap is going up, and teams are paying more for WRs now. A team very well could pay him $20+ mill. But I personally would put him in the $15-20 mill range based on what he contributes to the Bengals with Chase opposite him. If a team wants to make him their top WR, that's up to them and I understand.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-15-2022, 10:01 PM)pally Wrote: It may not all come to money for Tee.  A receiver of his talents wants to be THE GUY which he will never be in Cincinnati as long as Chase is around.  Unlike TJ who was a prototypical slot guy and was overreaching to think he could be #1WR, Tee does have the skills and talents to be the WR1 on most teams. He was drafted here to replace AJ Green.  The team never expected to be in the position to get a player like Chase the next year.  I do not expect Tee to be a Bengal after his rookie contract.  If he is, I'll be shocked and thrilled.  He will go on to another team and finally get the recognition he deserves

Good points Pally, but Tee being a Bengals fan all his life and being on a SuperBowl contender every year could also play into it...

Tee will get his. Chase won't always be healthy pretty damn sure.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-15-2022, 11:15 PM)jason Wrote: Eh... I think being "the guy" is pretty synonymous with money in sports. Tee gets his targets regardless of Ja'Marr. This isn't as complicated as some are making it either. They don't have to pay Ja'Marr for a minute IF they can't afford both (they can). Worst case scenario, they pay Tee now, and let Ja'Marr finish his rookie deal. Then pay Ja'Marr and let Tee walk on the 3rd contract.

Truth from Jason here...

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-16-2022, 10:28 AM)Whatever Wrote: $15-20 mil actually seems about right for the current high end WR2/1b market.  Mike Williams got $20 mil APY.  Williams also gets defended more like a WR1 than Tee due to his home run ability and Allen's lack of deep speed. 

Mike Williams is also heading into his age 28 season.

More importantly, Mike Williams signed his extension on March 8th, right before the WR market exploded and changed. Then....
Christian Kirk signed March 14th
Davante Adams signed March 17th
DJ Moore signed March 18th
Tyreek Hill signed March 23rd
Stefon Diggs signed April 6th
AJ Brown signed April 28th
Cooper Kupp signed June 8th

If Mike Williams signed an extension literally just 11 days later than he did, he would have likely gotten more. Bad luck/timing for him, great luck/timing for the Chargers.

Also Tee Higgins has 1,999 receiving yards at an age before Mike Williams was even in the NFL. He only needs 1,663 yards in the next 5 years to match Williams' total at age 27. If you want to go by years in the NFL rather than age, he still has 3 years to get that 1,663 yards. 

(06-16-2022, 10:59 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Yes, some of those guys in that range were signed a few years ago, the cap is going up, and teams are paying more for WRs now. A team very well could pay him $20+ mill. But I personally would put him in the $15-20 mill range based on what he contributes to the Bengals with Chase opposite him. If a team wants to make him their top WR, that's up to them and I understand.

Oh yeah, I wasn't saying that the $22m+ would be what I would pay him, but more what his actual worth would be. I don't think there's much of a chance that he gets extended here. There's probably no way the Bengals can sign Burrow, Chase, AND Higgins while still keeping a team around them. 

I think the only two teams who have two WRs making $15m/yr or more each are the Chargers and the Bucs. The Chargers have a QB on a rookie contract and by the time Herbert starts getting paid cap-wise, Allen will likely be done at age 33. The Bucs have Tom Brady on a ridiculous cap manipulation contract where he had an $11.9m cap hit this year on a deal that has 4 void years after that, which doesn't really work for a scenario where Joe Burrow would need paid as he wouldn't have what is essentially a 1 year deal.

[Housh]

I can easily see a team giving him 4 years 80 mill if he has a great year this season

[Joelist]

May be time for the Bengals to talk to Burrow and Chase strategically - take them into the inner circle and lay out the cap scenarios and look into deals for both that don't destroy the cap with the commitment that the team is using the money to keep the roster stocked with quality. Shades of what Tom Brady and the Pats did for years with team friendly deals that let New England keep a solid roster around him.

[ezekiel23]

With all the other obligations the Bengals will be challenged with at around that same time frame,they may have to let him go.Of course,I believe his performance this coming season will have a big impact.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-16-2022, 09:21 PM)Joelist Wrote: May be time for the Bengals to talk to Burrow and Chase strategically - take them into the inner circle and lay out the cap scenarios and look into deals for both that don't destroy the cap with the commitment that the team is using the money to keep the roster stocked with quality. Shades of what Tom Brady and the Pats did for years with team friendly deals that let New England keep a solid roster around him.

I like this thought.