I was wrong about Hayden Hurst - I'll take my crow medium rare, plz

[*ochocincos*]

I'd put Hurst about on par with Uzomah.

Hurst had more receptions this year than Uzomah had last year, but Uzomah had over 2 YPR higher.
Had Hurst been able to play 16 games like Uzomah did last year and kept his YPG of 31.8, Hurst would have probably just barely surpassed 500 yards.

As for blocking, Uzomah is better than Hurst.
In all the games Uzomah played last year, he allowed only 1 total pressure, 0 sacks.
Through 13 games so far this season, Hurst has allowed 5 total pressures, 1 of which was a sack.

But then you get to the cost of each guy.
Hurst - 1 year, $3.5 mill
Uzomah - 3 years, $24 mill

Hurst was a far better value contract-wise than Uzomah.
I do expect Hurst to get $5+ mill APY though this offseason, and I think the Bengals would be willing to give it to him.

[Au165]

(01-09-2023, 10:42 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I'd put Hurst about on par with Uzomah.

Hurst had more receptions this year than Uzomah had last year, but Uzomah had over 2 YPR higher.
Had Hurst been able to play 16 games like Uzomah did last year and kept his YPG of 31.8, Hurst would have probably just barely surpassed 500 yards.

As for blocking, Uzomah is better than Hurst.
In all the games Uzomah played last year, he allowed only 1 total pressure, 0 sacks.
Through 13 games so far this season, Hurst has allowed 5 total pressures, 1 of which was a sack.

But then you get to the cost of each guy.
Hurst - 1 year, $3.5 mill
Uzomah - 3 years, $24 mill

Hurst was a far better value contract-wise than Uzomah.
I do expect Hurst to get $5+ mill APY though this offseason, and I think the Bengals would be willing to give it to him.

This is the weird thing, people act like he was some sort of revelation...he was basically CJ.

It did end up being a much better value and if you can get him back cheap go for it. I think was this really shows though is we shouldn't be spending a bunch on the position as we can really run almost anyone out there to play it in this offense right now. I'd really like to look at one in the draft in round 3 or 4.

[leonardfan40]

(01-09-2023, 10:42 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I'd put Hurst about on par with Uzomah.

Hurst had more receptions this year than Uzomah had last year, but Uzomah had over 2 YPR higher.
Had Hurst been able to play 16 games like Uzomah did last year and kept his YPG of 31.8, Hurst would have probably just barely surpassed 500 yards.

As for blocking, Uzomah is better than Hurst.
In all the games Uzomah played last year, he allowed only 1 total pressure, 0 sacks.
Through 13 games so far this season, Hurst has allowed 5 total pressures, 1 of which was a sack.

But then you get to the cost of each guy.
Hurst - 1 year, $3.5 mill
Uzomah - 3 years, $24 mill

Hurst was a far better value contract-wise than Uzomah.
I do expect Hurst to get $5+ mill APY though this offseason, and I think the Bengals would be willing to give it to him.

All you need is the eyeball test. Hurst is the better pass catcher, no contest. Stats don’t tell the whole story. Go watch each one of their catches and tell me it’s close.

Uzomah is a much better blocker though.

People also fell in love with his personality and leadership which were always greater than his contributions to the passing game, but it overrated his skills that last year.

As others have said, we just don’t use the TE that much currently with the 3 headed monster at WR. Once we have to make tough choices their, our TE usage may increase. Until then, it’s better to stick with cheaper options at TE. If Hurst wants over $6 mil per year then we should probably let him walk and find another.

[wanga]

Hope they re-sign the big fella. A great pick up.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 10:04 AM)Synric Wrote: Bengals offense doesn't run through the TE so those are good numbers... Tight Ends are also notoriously difficult to transition from the NFL. So it's either pay way to much for 3rd option in your offense or resign Hayden Hurst while developing a day 2 or early day 3 guy.

Bengals offense doesn't run through the TE because they don't have a great TE. That's kind of chicken and egg there. You get Travis Kelce and suddenly your offense runs through the TE, you have Drew Sample and suddenly your offense doesn't run through the TE.

It is worth noting that before Sample got hurt, the Bengals were starting 2 TEs in both of the first two games of the season. 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Hurst is terrible or that he shouldn't be re-signed on a 1 year deal if it makes financial sense. I'm just saying he's not really a #1 TE and isn't the future and the Bengals should plan/prepare accordingly as next year might realistically be the last year he is decent. He came into the NFL later in his age 25 season and his yards per catch has declined every year he's been in the NFL since, so we might be seeing the very tail end of a short career. There's also a small chance that Higgins is not on the team next year if an extension doesn't happen (and I am not really sure it's feasible to pay Burrow, Chase, AND Tee from a roster construction standpoint). Boyd's catches and yards have decreased 3 straight years now while he's turning 29 this year, and like Tee he's under contract for only 1 more year.

Signing a young veteran or finding a good 3rd round or earlier TE who you can develop in 2023, should be a decent priority this offseason, up there with finding another WR to develop too.

Still don't regret letting CJ leave, as his contract was way too much for the player he was, but they need to start preparing for turnover and Hurst is the easiest one as his receiving stats are more in line with RB production than a TE.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 10:35 AM)BengalsBong Wrote: Catch rate and getting the 1st downs are big. We were not throwing into cover two all year last year so down the field was more open. With our ball control throw underneath the D long drives this year the YPC went down but the 1st downs went up I would guess. Handen hands are much better than CJ as well. But if we got an extra draft pick and the right player is there I am all for getting a better TE prospect to develop.

Actually didn't...

Hayden Hurst 2022
76.5% catch rate
50.0% 1st down rate

CJ Uzomah 2021
77.8% catch rate
63.3% 1st down rate

...that's not an endorsement of Uzomah or trying to make it into a fight between the two. I would still take Hurst at 1yr/$3.5m over Uzomah at 3yr/$24m all 100/100 times, but Hurst is meh.

[SmoothD]

Hurst has stated multiple times that he loves it here and finally feels like he is being used correctly.
Don't see him leaving.
Look for him to sign a 3 year deal in the 10-12 million dollar range.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 11:29 AM)SmoothD Wrote: Hurst has stated multiple times that he loves it here and finally feels like he is being used correctly.
Don't see him leaving.
Look for him to sign a 3 year deal in the 10-12 million dollar range.

Nobody is giving Hurst 3yr/$30-36m, certainly not the Bengals who already probably aren't going to have enough for all three of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

[ezekiel23]

I like the energy that Hurst brings to this team.Very talented TE,and gives 100% on every play.Bengals are fortunate to have this guy,and got him at a bargain price as opposed to Uzomah.

[TheFan]

(01-09-2023, 11:21 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals offense doesn't run through the TE because they don't have a great TE. That's kind of chicken and egg there. You get Travis Kelce and suddenly your offense runs through the TE, you have Drew Sample and suddenly your offense doesn't run through the TE.

It is worth noting that before Sample got hurt, the Bengals were starting 2 TEs in both of the first two games of the season. 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Hurst is terrible or that he shouldn't be re-signed on a 1 year deal if it makes financial sense. I'm just saying he's not really a #1 TE and isn't the future and the Bengals should plan/prepare accordingly as next year might realistically be the last year he is decent. He came into the NFL later in his age 25 season and his yards per catch has declined every year he's been in the NFL since, so we might be seeing the very tail end of a short career. There's also a small chance that Higgins is not on the team next year if an extension doesn't happen (and I am not really sure it's feasible to pay Burrow, Chase, AND Tee from a roster construction standpoint). Boyd's catches and yards have decreased 3 straight years now while he's turning 29 this year, and like Tee he's under contract for only 1 more year.

Signing a young veteran or finding a good 3rd round or earlier TE who you can develop in 2023, should be a decent priority this offseason, up there with finding another WR to develop too.

Still don't regret letting CJ leave, as his contract was way too much for the player he was, but they need to start preparing for turnover and Hurst is the easiest one as his receiving stats are more in line with RB production than a TE.

I think there's some merit to CJ having played with Burrow and in the system for 3 years compared to this being Hursts first. Minimal drop off with it being CJs career year isn't bad. 

I definitely agree we should look at drafting a TE and bring back Hurst or another TE on the cheap. 

[Frank Booth]

Give it a rest. The offense in 2021 was all big play or nothing. 2022 was about consistent ball control and maintaining drives.

It was a different offense this year. Everyone in this offense had less downfield plays.

Hurst was absolutely better this year. Get over your love affair with Uzomah

[Essex Johnson]

(12-01-2022, 09:30 PM)Tomkat Wrote: A few months ago, I was very vocal about how much I thought losing CJ Uzomah had hurt the team, both statistically and "in the locker room" via missing leadership.  I didn't think Hayden Hurst could adequately replace him in either capacity.  I was wrong.

He has really won me over... I'll take my serving of crow... medium rare.

I would also say he has done better blocking than i expected, but the idea he was going to really stretch the field that many felt he would has not materialized which is what i did not think would happen... but he really showed good hands and was a good safety outlets... I am hoping he can be effective more in playoffs especially in middle of field this is where CJ really shined last year for us.. 13 catches and a TD in first two games before getting hurt in KC game playoff game was very important for us

[Frank Booth]

(01-09-2023, 12:21 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I would also say he has done better blocking than i expected, but the idea he was going to really stretch the field that many felt he would has not materialized which is what i did not think would happen... now im hoping that changes in playoffs... this is where CJ really shined last year for us.. 13 catches and a TD in first two games before getting hurt in KC game.  

People who are saying hurst isn’t really an upgrade over CJ are flat out wrong.

Like I said before, the entire offense in 2021 was based off big plays.

Opposing defenses in 2022 play the bengals to prevent the big play. Jamarr and the entire offense in general have had less explosive plays.

And that is fine. The big plays still show up, but this offense is a better and more sustainable

Hurst has been way more consistent than CJ this year.

You have to look at the whole offense before you criticize Hurst for not putting up way better per game numbers than CJ last year. Also, just use your eyes. Hurst is head and shoulders more talented than Uzomah. The way he breaks tackles and gains extra yards is something cj wasn’t nearly as good at.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 12:14 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Give it a rest. The offense in 2021 was all big play or nothing. 2022 was about consistent ball control and maintaining drives.

It was a different offense this year. Everyone in this offense had less downfield plays.

Hurst was absolutely better this year. Get over your love affair with Uzomah

(01-09-2023, 12:28 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: People who are saying hurst isn’t really an upgrade over CJ are flat out wrong.

Like I said before, the entire offense in 2021 was based off big plays.

Opposing defenses in 2022 play the bengals to prevent the big play. Jamarr and the entire offense in general have had less explosive plays.

And that is fine. The big plays still show up, but this offense is a better and more sustainable

Hurst has been way more consistent than CJ this year.

You have to look at the whole offense before you criticize Hurst for not putting up way better per game numbers than CJ last year. Also, just use your eyes. Hurst is head and shoulders more talented than Uzomah. The way he breaks tackles and gains extra yards is something cj wasn’t nearly as good at.

Did Uzomah sleep with your girl or something, man? You seem to be taking this thread personally. It's not that big of a deal.

Hurst is credited with 5 broken tackles for a 10.4 receptions per broken tackle this year, last year Uzomah had 5 broken tackles for a 9.8 receptions per broken tackle. Hurst is average 3.7 yards after the catch, Uzomah averaged 6.1 yards after the catch. Hurst also caught less % of his targets. He DOES have better hands than Uzomah, but he's not doing much with the ball after catching it for a short gain.

Again, I would still take Hurst over Uzomah because of the contract situation, but to pretend Hurst has been anything other than similar to (but a little worse than) 2021 Uzomah is not accepting reality. He's not been an upgrade, but he was much much cheaper, and that was good enough for this year. Next season though, the Bengals can get better at the position and they should at least try to.

[lacesout87]

(01-09-2023, 11:33 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

Nobody is giving Hurst 3yr/$30-36m, certainly not the Bengals who already probably aren't going to have enough for all three of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

My assumption is they meant 3yr 10-12m total, not per year. 10-12m per year would be asinine.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-09-2023, 11:33 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

Nobody is giving Hurst 3yr/$30-36m, certainly not the Bengals who already probably aren't going to have enough for all three of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

I'm 95% sure he meant 3-4 mil AAV...

[Frank Booth]

(01-09-2023, 12:48 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Did Uzomah sleep with your girl or something, man? You seem to be taking this thread personally. It's not that big of a deal.

Hurst is credited with 5 broken tackles for a 10.4 receptions per broken tackle this year, last year Uzomah had 5 broken tackles for a 9.8 receptions per broken tackle. Hurst is average 3.7 yards after the catch, Uzomah averaged 6.1 yards after the catch. Hurst also caught less % of his targets. He DOES have better hands than Uzomah, but he's not doing much with the ball after catching it for a short gain.

Again, I would still take Hurst over Uzomah because of the contract situation, but to pretend Hurst has been anything other than similar to (but a little worse than) 2021 Uzomah is not accepting reality. He's not been an upgrade, but he was much much cheaper, and that was good enough for this year. Next season though, the Bengals can get better at the position and they should at least try to.

You have to look at the offense as a whole, like I said. The 2022 offense is about sustaining drives. The offense last year was about the big play. Of course Uzomah had bigger plays. He would also disappear for most of the year

Hurst played in 3 Less games than cj, and also left the chiefs game early, and still had more receptions than Uzomah did. He was more reliable and consistent than Uzomah.

Tight ends aren’t supposed to be these big yards per reception guys. They’re there to make 7-8 yard catches and move the chains. Hurst has been more reliable on a game to game basis.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 12:50 PM)lacesout87 Wrote: My assumption is they meant 3yr 10-12m total, not per year. 10-12m per year would be asinine.

(01-09-2023, 12:51 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I'm 95% sure he meant 3-4 mil AAV...

That'd certainly make more sense. 

[higgy100]

(01-09-2023, 12:57 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: You have to look at the offense as a whole, like I said. The 2022 offense is about sustaining drives. The offense last year was about the big play. Of course Uzomah had bigger plays. He would also disappear for most of the year

Hurst played in 3 Less games than cj, and also left the chiefs game early, and still had more receptions than Uzomah did. He was more reliable and consistent than Uzomah.

Tight ends aren’t supposed to be these big yards per reception guys. They’re there to make 7-8 yard catches and move the chains. Hurst has been more reliable on a game to game basis.

You need to answer his first question.lol.

[Frank Booth]

(01-09-2023, 01:05 PM)higgy100 Wrote: You need to answer his first question.lol.

hahha