2023 DL Draft Prospects Group Assessment

[*psychdoctor*]

Isaac Curtis The Real #85 Should start the first response to this thread. He will start each thread of all group assessments for 2023 draft prospects. He will post numbers, caps, players very helpful information. After Isaac post his numbers, then and only then can any board member list there prospect and synopsis of a players strengths, weaknesses, and why you feel he would fit this Bengal team.

I think it would help to project round, player they would replace, strengths and weakness.

[*psychdoctor*]

I am just going to through this out there. Keeanu Benton looks like a Bengal Player. He is NT/1 tech. 315 pounds of quickness. He is a former Wrestler so he knows leverage. Incredibly powerful. Keep an eye on him.

[WVUHomer]

(02-03-2023, 07:56 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I am just going to through this out there.  Keeanu Benton looks like a Bengal Player.  He is NT/1 tech.  315 pounds of quickness.  He is a former Wrestler so he knows leverage.  Incredibly powerful.  Keep an eye on him.

Another potential target could be Zach's old partner in crime Gervon Dexter Sr. from Florida. Could be a nice developing NT prospect in the 3rd.

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-03-2023, 08:10 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Another potential target could be Zach's old partner in crime Gervon Dexter Sr. from Florida. Could be a nice developing NT prospect in the 3rd.

Dexter is a great fit for Bengals.  Either one would work.  

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Gonna apologize for being late on this. Just posting to bump. Will do analysis first this time.

FWIW, all 10 DL on the roster last year are signed this. While we could always use more pass rush, and were poor in terms of sacks, we rated well on pressures. Ossai & Carter really played better later on. Perhaps upgrading Gunter as the 5th DE could happen. Or a stud NT to develop behind Reader, though Tupou is an adequate backup.

With Hendrickson/Hubbard/Ossai I think DE is just fine. Sample as a DE/DT hybrid was fine in my view. Gunter (despite the FG block) would be the only real upgrade possibility. Via draft or a vet FA signing.

On the interior. Reader/Hill are locked in starters. DJ is a stud. Hill is adequate and at $10 mil, a low key candidate to get replaced when the price crunch hits. But we are not there yet. Carter was awful early but was better late. I don't think we give up on him yet. We like to play 3 DTs sometimes, so we usually carry 3 NT/DT types. Which means only room for Carter & Hill as DTs if we carry 5 NT/DT types. For that reason, I think a NT type is much more likely than a DT type like Kancey. Though we could carry 11 if we trimmed elsewhere (LB/TE). Or we think the DT can hold up for some snaps 8nside in short yardage.

[NATI BENGALS]

I liked Raymond Johnson III and Domenique Davis in the preseason last year. They stuck around on the PS all year and will be back too.

Unless there is a clear by far best player available scenario sometime during the draft I'm going into the draft without enough picks to add a DL. I feel it's a luxury pick this year. We have some major holes to fill. The position group losing nobody isn't one of them.

[casear2727]

(02-03-2023, 08:10 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Another potential target could be Zach's old partner in crime Gervon Dexter Sr. from Florida. Could be a nice developing NT prospect in the 3rd.

(02-03-2023, 08:11 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Dexter is a great fit for Bengals.  Either one would work.  

Dextor's pass rush grades are not good at all.  Clancey, Maxi and Benton are the 3 guys Im looking to take Reader's spot eventually, but also provide better pass rush up the middle. 

[casear2727]

(02-24-2023, 03:49 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I liked Raymond Johnson III and Domenique Davis in the preseason last year. They stuck around on the PS all year and will be back too.

Unless there is a clear by far best player available scenario sometime during the draft I'm going into the draft without enough picks to add a DL. I feel it's a luxury pick this year. We have some major holes to fill. The position group losing nobody isn't one of them.

DJ Reader is on the last year of his contract, having his replacement this season would not necessarily be a luxury, more of a necessity, 3 tech I would agree.

[WVUHomer]

(02-24-2023, 08:17 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Dextor's pass rush grades are not good at all.  Clancey, Maxi and Benton are the 3 guys Im looking to take Reader's spot eventually, but also provide better pass rush up the middle. 

Calijah Kancey would get destroyed in Readers spot. Dude is well under 300 lbs.

Reader is primarily a run stuffer so thats why I could be sold on Dexter in 3. Later pick to develop.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-24-2023, 08:19 AM)casear2727 Wrote: DJ Reader is on the last year of his contract, having his replacement this season would not necessarily be a luxury, more of a necessity, 3 tech I would agree.

The Bengals don't HAVE to have someone waiting in the wings for a year (or two) before taking over if a FA departs.
I would argue 1T is a position that a rookie could fill potentially easier than many other positions and do well.
Aside from that, there are typically cheaper vets who can play 1T just fine.

Remember, the Bengals already have both Reader and Tupou on the roster.
Is there (or should there be) room for a 3rd 1T?
I would argue no, as the rest of the roster spots are needed for pass rushers.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, incoming general stuff I post in each thread of this type.

2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 7
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

With 42 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,889,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $183,508,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,498,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,608,659 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks. With the exception of Ben Brown, no PS squad guys are included in that 42.

And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).


II. Looming Cap Issues

And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.

2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa

Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways before the FA year if the salary is high, but the perfromance & Dead Cap number is low.

It certainly behooves us to line up possible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I am going to break DL up i nto two parts, DE and DT/NT. Though we often let DEs rush inside on passing downs and some guys are true hybrids (Cam Sample).

Position Group #8: Defensive End/Edge

I. 2022 Roster Status
Currently on 53 = 5
Currently on IR = 0
Currently on PS = 1
-------------------
Current starters: Hendrickson, Hubbard
Rosyeted Reserves: Ossai, C. Sample, Gunter
IR/PUP: None
Practice Squad: Raymond Johnson III
------------------------

II. 2023 Roster Status

A. Signed = 6. Cap Hit: Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1. T. Hendrickson (DE#1): $15,476,460; $5,000,000; 2025 UFA
2. S. Hubbard (DE#3): $9,970,588; $6,000,000; 2026 UFA
3. J. Ossai (DE#3): $1,416,168; $568,224; 2025 UFA
4. C. Sample (DE#4/DT#3): $1,137,036; $394,072; 2025 UFA
5. J. Gunter (DE#5): $889,510; $58,530; 2026 UFA
--------------
6. R. Johnson III (PS DE): $870,0000; $0;

B. Unsigned = 0. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Position Group #9: Nose Tackle/Defensive Tackle

I. 2022 Roster Status
Currently on 53 = 5
Currently on IR = 0
Currently on PS = 1
-------------------
Current starters: Reader, BJ Hill
Rosyeted Reserves: Tupou, Carter, Tufele
IR/PUP: None
Practice Squad: D. Davis
------------------------

II. 2023 Roster Status

A. Signed = 6. Cap Hit: Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1. DJ Reader (NT#1): $15,521,324; $4,062,500; 2024 UFA
2. BJ Hill (DT#1): $10,833,333; $6,666,667; 2025 UFA
3. J. Tupou (NT#2): $1,570,888; $150,000; 2024 UFA
4. Z. Carter (DT#2): $1,154,531; $655,875; 2026 UFA
5. J. Tufele (NT#3): $940,000; $0; 2025 UFA
----------------
6. D. Davis (PS NT/DT): $750,000; $0; 2024 UFA

B. Unsigned = 0. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

[casear2727]

(02-24-2023, 10:19 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: Calijah Kancey would get destroyed in Readers spot. Dude is well under 300 lbs.

Reader is primarily a run stuffer so thats why I could be sold on Dexter in 3. Later pick to develop.

I dont disagree on run downs, Im referring to pass rush up the middle.  To be honest Im still concerned that he comes to the combine even shorter and lighter.  Im more of a Mazi, Benton guy.

[casear2727]

(02-24-2023, 11:10 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The Bengals don't HAVE to have someone waiting in the wings for a year (or two) before taking over if a FA departs.
I would argue 1T is a position that a rookie could fill potentially easier than many other positions and do well.
Aside from that, there are typically cheaper vets who can play 1T just fine.

Remember, the Bengals already have both Reader and Tupou on the roster.
Is there (or should there be) room for a 3rd 1T?
I would argue no, as the rest of the roster spots are needed for pass rushers.

I think Tuefele has some promise as well.  The issue with DJ and Josh is the lack of pass rush in the middle.  Im fine with sliding a 3T over if he can get a good push. 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

III. Analysis: DE/Edge & NT/DT

More than any other position group, reserve DL play regularly, absent injury. TE2 & RB2 play a lot, but not much beyond that. In the DL, 8 of these guys play even when we are healthy.

All 10 rostered guys are signed for 2023, as are the 2 PS guys. 3 of 4 starters are signed theu 2024 (or longer), and the exception (Reader) is a guy you re-sign, not replace. In my view, Reader & Hendrickson are to the D what Burrow & Chase are to the O: foundational cornerstones you build around. They are going nowhere.

While some national analysts will look at the meager sack to we had last year and conclude that we need a pass rusher, this overlooks the fact that our pressure rate is VERY good. Reader (87.3) and Hendrickson (85.0) are otherwordly according to PFF & their pressure rates. While Hubbard (72.4) and BJ Hill (65.8) are more than solid. There are no "holes" to fill here in terms of starters. And the starters are a significant upgrade from the reserves. And we don't really save a ton of $$ by waiving Sam or BJ. They are going nowhere, too

In terms of backups, Ossai was coming off a lost rookie year due to injury and really picked it up late. He was our best pass rusher vs KC, especially late. Sample is more of a hybrid DE/DT whi is stout on the edge vs the run. More like Hubbard. He played more snaps and rated out higher than Ossai via pff (58.0 to 55.3). Neither guy was gangbusters, but both are young and improving and cheap. I'd be stunned if both are not back.

After that, it is a little more dubious. Gunter hardly played, and if a good edge prospect is available, and it is a pretty deep class (Van Ness, Foskey) I could see an upgrade at DE. But there are other areas in MYCH mire yegent need of attention at the moment (TE, CB, S, OT, WR/IOL depth). We have good starters and decent depth at DE.

The story at NT/DT is similar. Though I am not quite as convinced on the depth. Tupou is a decent backup ( 57.0 & 56.4 the last two years), but he was 73.8 in 2019 before sitting out 2020. Tufele was signed off the street this year when Reader & Tupou got hurt and played admirably (49.8) as the #3 NT. Carter started off horribly but improved enough at the end that I do not think we give up on him yet despite the poor PFF score as Hill's backup (32.1).

The guys most oikely to get replaced are Gunter and Tufele. I doubt we give up on Carter yet, which means there is not really room for a DT type (Kancey) unless we carry 11 DL (possible) or decide to carry 3 DTs and 2 NTs in the 53 rather than the other way around. I also doubt that happens, since we use DE's inside on throwing downs a lot for inside pass rush.

A hybrid DE/DT who takes Gunter's spot on the roster would be my best bet for a draft pick at this position group early (Van Ness, Keion White, Tuli Tuipulotu, etc). I could also see at NT type to upgrade from Tufele (Ika, Benton, Dexter). Mazi Smith had some off firld stuff I don't like but is also a decent prospect. And again, I like Kancey but I just don't see it unless we carry 11 or change roster philosophies or pull the plug on Carter.

Overall, it is gonna need to be really good value to use an early pick on the DL, and there are other needs that seem MUCH more pressing. Once you get to round 4 & beyond, is the guy really gonna be better than what we have?

Next to QB, LS, and PK, I'd rate the need here as least urgent. Tupou is a FA in 2024. So is Reader, who is must keep in my book. Everyone else inked until 2025 or longer.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(02-24-2023, 02:23 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I think Tuefele has some promise as well.  The issue with DJ and Josh is the lack of pass rush in the middle.  Im fine with sliding a 3T over if he can get a good push. 

Reader actually had a pretty good pressure rate this year. 

He gets good push most times. 

[casear2727]

(02-24-2023, 02:49 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Reader actually had a pretty good pressure rate this year. 

He gets good push most times. 

I think so as well, but him playing 3 downs isnt good, and he is on his last year.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(02-25-2023, 05:20 AM)casear2727 Wrote: I think so as well, but him playing 3 downs isnt good, and he is on his last year.

For me, Reader is a foundational piece. We pay him, period. 

1. Burrow. 
2. Chase. 
3. Reader. 
4. Hendrickson. 

Those are my cornerstones. If we have to make hard decisions, it will be elsewhere. I am certainly not opposed to upgrading Tufele, Tupou, or Carter, however. 

[casear2727]

(02-25-2023, 12:55 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: For me, Reader is a foundational piece. We pay him, period. 

1. Burrow. 
2. Chase. 
3. Reader. 
4. Hendrickson. 

Those are my cornerstones. If we have to make hard decisions, it will be elsewhere. I am certainly not opposed to upgrading Tufele, Tupou, or Carter, however. 

I hope we keep DJ as long as possible, know him personally, great guy and terrific player.