DJ Reader estimated extension value (per Sportrac)

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-08-2023, 08:42 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: Great post and I would say these past two years, there’s a strong argument that Reader was more important and better than Higgins. However, I don’t agree the statement holds true going forward in 2024 and on. Reader is coming off back to back injured years and will be 30 next contract. There’s a steep decline after 30.

I’d put my money into Higgins and draft/sign/trade to replace reader.

The injuries and age actually might make Reader more affordable honestly. I would still extend him or at the very least Tag him after 
this season. DJ will not be easily replaced by a Draft pick or in a trade or FA. With Tee, he will command a ton of money being so young
and we added a talented WR in Iosivas who might be able to be a stud in a couple years. Bottom line, we need to keep Chase more 
than Tee if we want to afford all the guys we have after the Burrow contract.

As Sunset said, we should look to extend our best OL in Cappa and Karras in a couple years too. Took us forever to get a stud RG and
a damn good Center and leader. Keep these guys around.

One reason we could extend both Tee and Chase is their contracts would offset as they would be different years, but I don't want us to
do it unless we can still keep the trenches stacked. That is where you win games, in the trenches.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-08-2023, 12:49 PM)Whatever Wrote: If injuries kept us out of the SB, then why change our team design?  Stick with what works until it doesn't.  

Injuries, compounded by lack of quality depth on OL.  They addressed that issue by signing Brown, now we are going to have at least one, possibly two starting quality Tackles as depth players.  They are working as hard as they can, while keeping an eye on budget, to keep a strong defense.  Re-signing Pratt was huge, but they went huge on the secondary in the draft, for the second year in a row.  

[Sled21]

(06-08-2023, 02:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Injuries, compounded by lack of quality depth on OL.  They addressed that issue by signing Brown, now we are going to have at least one, possibly two starting quality Tackles as depth players.  They are working as hard as they can, while keeping an eye on budget, to keep a strong defense.  Re-signing Pratt was huge, but they went huge on the secondary in the draft, for the second year in a row.  

I think we are pretty well off with depth this year. Regardless of who gets the starting gigs, Williams, Carman, Brown Jr, Collins, and Ford are way better than what we had last year at tackle depth.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-08-2023, 02:23 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I think we are pretty well off with depth this year. Regardless of who gets the starting gigs, Williams, Carman, Brown Jr, Collins, and Ford are way better than what we had last year at tackle depth.

For sure I feel much better about our trenches on both sides with our depth going into this year. Keep it up is all I ask.

Love Tee, but not at the expense of the trenches.

[casear2727]

(06-07-2023, 01:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Remember how many (including probably some/most of us) thought the Chiefs would drop off once Hill was gone because Mahomes had just Kelce at that point?
They find a way to make it work with some budget FAs and draft guys because Mahomes and Kelce are that good.
Burrow and just Chase or Higgins and the same approach the Chiefs took last year I think would be fine.

(06-07-2023, 01:59 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Several times I have mentioned that when you have a franchise QB of the level of a Joe Burrow, he gets one superstar weapon and will have to elevate the play of other cost effective skill players, because you need an OL to protect your QB and a stout defense to keep your team from having to score 35 pts/game.

KC received a haul for Hill, I do not disagree that Burrow should be good enough to win us games without Tee but I certainly hope we can get something more than a comp pick if we cannot extended Higgins.

[casear2727]

(06-07-2023, 07:15 PM)ElkValleyBengal Wrote: Read where Ed Oliver re-upped with the Bills for 4 years and $68 million (17 per).  He's a guy who was highly touted coming out of Houston (college) who really hasn't lived up to his pre-draft billing.  I realize he's younger, but I don't believe there are many who would choose him over Reader today for the next couple years or so.  Reader is going to get paid, and it's not going to be in Cincy if they re-sign both Chase and Higgins- unless they essentially have a roster of first and second year players outside of a chosen few.

Oliver is 25 and plays a different position.  Daquan Jones is the Bills NT.   DT3's that can rush the passer are getting big money, run stuffers not so much, yet.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-09-2023, 05:40 AM)casear2727 Wrote: KC received a haul for Hill, I do not disagree that Burrow should be good enough to win us games without Tee but I certainly hope we can get something more than a comp pick if we cannot extended Higgins.

Yep the trade compensation for Hill was 29th overall plus the Dolphins' 2nd and 4th rounder in 2022, and also a 4th and 6th rounder in 2023.

While that's a great get, Higgins hasn't had nearly the same accolades as Hill was by the time Hill got traded.
I agree though, if Higgins were to depart, it'd be nice to be something more than the following year's 3rd round comp pick at best.

[Whatever]

(06-08-2023, 02:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Injuries, compounded by lack of quality depth on OL.  They addressed that issue by signing Brown, now we are going to have at least one, possibly two starting quality Tackles as depth players.  They are working as hard as they can, while keeping an eye on budget, to keep a strong defense.  Re-signing Pratt was huge, but they went huge on the secondary in the draft, for the second year in a row.  

Being fair, any position group is going to struggle with three starters out in a conference championship game.  It isn't like we were the Bills and had zero pass rush when one guy went down.

[*jason*]

(06-07-2023, 07:18 PM)Whatever Wrote: I don't necessarily believe we'll stop winning if Higgins isn't resigned.  In fact, I've advocated for awhile that we should be looking to draft a replacement.  However, I definitely get trepidation regarding letting him go.  The Bengals are a legitimate SB contender with a stacked WR corps.  We've done the "good OL, good defense, 1 superstar WR" formula.  We had success, but 6 one and dones were all we had to show for it. It's a formula that works in the regular season, but falls short in the playoffs.  We all know we can put Joe Burrow behind a trash OL with Chase and Higgins and make it to the SB, because we've all seen it.  We don't know if we we can with a change in personnel priorities.

Ultimately, though, it doesn't matter what we think.  Joe is going to structure his deal to keep his guys, so that's what's going to happen.

We've never seen Joe Burrow be successful for a full season without 2 stud WRs either. I'm not saying it can't happen, but 17 games plus the playoffs is a lot different than successfully treading water til Ja'Marr got back last season.

[ElkValleyBengal]

(06-09-2023, 05:58 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Oliver is 25 and plays a different position.  Daquan Jones is the Bills NT.   DT3's that can rush the passer are getting big money, run stuffers not so much, yet.

That's true.  The reason I brought it up, though, is Oliver has 14.5 sacks in 4 seasons.  He had only 2.5 last season.  I'm not all that familiar with his injury history, or if there is one.  But that's a lot of jack for that production.  Don't think that will be lost on other players and agents.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

DJ Reader will be in his age 30 season when he hits FA, and he's played in 30/49 games. As a Bengal he has played...
24.4%
52.5%
38.2%
...of the defensive snaps. It's already a tough sell on that much money for a guy who plays only 1/2 of the snaps when there's going to be big money going elsewhere. If he's playing 1/3rd or 1/4th, it's just insanity regardless of how good that 1/3rd or 1/4th is.

Need for him to put in a healthy and productive season this year before I would ever consider giving him more money and even then you have to remind yourself you would be paying for his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons with a 3 year extension.

[Whatever]

(06-09-2023, 02:05 PM)jason Wrote: We've never seen Joe Burrow be successful for a full season without 2 stud WRs either. I'm not saying it can't happen, but 17 games plus the playoffs is a lot different than successfully treading water til Ja'Marr got back last season.

I don't think that many people realize that despite the fact Joe had 86 more passing attempts in '22, his passing yards, completion %, and passer rating all went down from where they were in '21.  That's with a better OL.  A big reason is Chase, Higgins, and Boyd all missed time with various injuries.  

[Housh]

(06-10-2023, 01:28 AM)Whatever Wrote: I don't think that many people realize that despite the fact Joe had 86 more passing attempts in '22, his passing yards, completion %, and passer rating all went down from where they were in '21.  That's with a better OL.  A big reason is Chase, Higgins, and Boyd all missed time with various injuries.  

Crazy how stats don’t tell a full story


I didn’t know these stats.

But it just felt like Burrow was a better QB last year, than he was in 2021. He cut out damn near ALL the head scratcher picks and he really only got picked off when his passes got tipped. He has a really really bad one against the Chiefs in the AFCG that he has to answer for but for the most part when guys picked him off it wasn’t his fault.

I feel like he checked down waaay more and it helped the offense. I feel like he chose his scrambles PERFECTLY. I even feel like he went away from his 2021 mindset of sacks in certain situations not being that bad to take. Seems like he really tried protecting the ball last year better than he did in 2021 despite what numbers say. His ball placement became elite in 2022. He even became better at avoidance my sacks and he was ALREADY really good at that in 2021.

These stats honestly surprised me.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-09-2023, 11:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: DJ Reader will be in his age 30 season when he hits FA, and he's played in 30/49 games. As a Bengal he has played...
24.4%
52.5%
38.2%
...of the defensive snaps. It's already a tough sell on that much money for a guy who plays only 1/2 of the snaps when there's going to be big money going elsewhere. If he's playing 1/3rd or 1/4th, it's just insanity regardless of how good that 1/3rd or 1/4th is.

Need for him to put in a healthy and productive season this year before I would ever consider giving him more money and even then you have to remind yourself you would be paying for his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons with a 3 year extension.

You have to take into consideration the value of the snaps he did play though. Do we shut down King Henry without DJ Reader?

I think not. With what you say because it is all true, he should be more affordable. He isn't a pass rushing 3-tech like Aaron Donald or
anything, he is a dominant run stopper when we need him to be, and we need him to be. Keep him around at least for a couple years.

[Soonerpeace]

Thank you @bengals defensive line for having your dinner party tonight ⁦@TheRealJeffRuby⁩ Steakhouse in Cincinnati, USA pic.twitter.com/pAXydHpM9o

— Jeff Ruby (@TheRealJeffRuby) June 10, 2023

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-10-2023, 01:57 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: You have to take into consideration the value of the snaps he did play though. Do we shut down King Henry without DJ Reader?

I think not. With what you say because it is all true, he should be more affordable. He isn't a pass rushing 3-tech like Aaron Donald or
anything, he is a dominant run stopper when we need him to be, and we need him to be. Keep him around at least for a couple years.

Oh he absolutely brings values when he plays. When he IS on the field, he's great, and you can afford to pay good money to a part-time run-stuffing DT when you have rookie contract QB and WRs as they have.

Honestly as much as his injuries, playing time, and age are factors for me, I think the greatest factor is less about Reader himself and more about allocation of cap space at that point. He's probably a guy who will just have to be a casualty to the Bengals wanting to keep both Chase and Higgins. You can't pay everyone. I think Wilson has a chance to also end up falling into this category as they roll with a cheaper Pratt as their paid LB. Also probably the cost of signing Orlando, but if that's the case I am good with it.


- - - - - -
Derrick Henry is interesting last year. He had 9 games of 100+ yards and all his stats are great, but it was pretty much exclusively at the expense of his absolutely terrible division as 6 of those 9 came in his 6 divisional games....
AFCS: 6 games, 817 yards (136.2 ypg/5.3 ypc)
Rest: 10 games, 721 yards (72.1 ypg/3.7 ypc)

Before the Bengals game he rushed for 3.1 ypc against the Packers and after the Bengals game he rushed for 2.7 ypc against the Eagles. As I said, a really weird season because if you just look at his stats as a whole you're like "woah, great season"..

[casear2727]

(06-10-2023, 02:15 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote:

Thank you @bengals defensive line for having your dinner party tonight ⁦@TheRealJeffRuby⁩ Steakhouse in Cincinnati, USA pic.twitter.com/pAXydHpM9o

— Jeff Ruby (@TheRealJeffRuby) June 10, 2023

Wonder if this is the rookie meal that Murphy had to pay for...?  Looks expensive....

I am extremely biased towards keeping DJ, he and my son have been friends since college and they hang out all the time now.

[Soonerpeace]

(06-10-2023, 03:58 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Wonder if this is the rookie meal that Murphy had to pay for...?  Looks expensive....

I am extremely biased towards keeping DJ, he and my son have been friends since college and they hang out all the time now.

I wondered too. I’m sure his performance looms large this season. And your son picked one the best persons ( not just player) that he possibly could have picked to hang with

[Housh]

(06-10-2023, 03:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Oh he absolutely brings values when he plays. When he IS on the field, he's great, and you can afford to pay good money to a part-time run-stuffing DT when you have rookie contract QB and WRs as they have.

Honestly as much as his injuries, playing time, and age are factors for me, I think the greatest factor is less about Reader himself and more about allocation of cap space at that point. He's probably a guy who will just have to be a casualty to the Bengals wanting to keep both Chase and Higgins. You can't pay everyone. I think Wilson has a chance to also end up falling into this category as they roll with a cheaper Pratt as their paid LB. Also probably the cost of signing Orlando, but if that's the case I am good with it.


- - - - - -
Derrick Henry is interesting last year. He had 9 games of 100+ yards and all his stats are great, but it was pretty much exclusively at the expense of his absolutely terrible division as 6 of those 9 came in his 6 divisional games....
AFCS: 6 games, 817 yards (136.2 ypg/5.3 ypc)
Rest: 10 games, 721 yards (72.1 ypg/3.7 ypc)

Before the Bengals game he rushed for 3.1 ypc against the Packers and after the Bengals game he rushed for 2.7 ypc against the Eagles. As I said, a really weird season because if you just look at his stats as a whole you're like "woah, great season"..

I’d give Reader 15+M even knowing at best he’ll play 60% of the snaps.

Also at that price his ass would be an every down guy idc. I’d tell his ass eat 2 blockers on pass plays and you’ve earned your money.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-10-2023, 05:15 PM)Housh Wrote: I’d give Reader 15+M even knowing at best he’ll play 60% of the snaps.

Also at that price his ass would be an every down guy idc. I’d tell his ass eat 2 blockers on pass plays and you’ve earned your money.

False, as you would have him to be getting over fatigued and subject to pointless injury.