Reds August 2023 thread

[cinci4life]

Salvaged game 2 and also win the series!

[guyofthetiger]

I'm going to the game on Wednesday evening. I wish we were still in first. I look for a 2 game sweep of the Guardians this week. Might as well root for the battle of Ohio.

[CJD]

Honestly, pretty surprised we pulled that last one out.

Poor Elly was robbed by that dastardly foe, Bryan Reynolds.

[Goalpost]

3 and 1/2 out of first, and 1/2 game out of the wild card. I know we lost the tie breaker with the Brewers but not sure where we stand with the Giants, Diamondbacks, and Cubs.

edit...I guess I left out Marlins in this also

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-13-2023, 07:55 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: This is so dumb. 22nd start of a 7era pitcher who will go 3-4 innings and kill the bullpen some more.

Does he have compromising photos of Krall and Bell?

It makes no sense !  The guy is tied for 5th in all of MLB for HR's allowed, there's a bunch of guys at 25 and 24 where Weaver is. And among those guys at 24 HR's and above Weaver has the worst ERA 6.87 and highest WHIP 1.64 

In 97 innings he's allowed 125 hits. Opponents are batting .306 against him. And they just keep sending him out there. 

I'm convinced his real name is Luke Bell.

[CJD]

Last night Elly De La Cruz hit his 10th career homerun.

He currently has 17 stolen bases.

In MLB history, only one player has reached 10 HR and 15 SB faster: Barry Bonds. And he did it in just one fewer games.

Elly has played 58 games in his career.

Another record coming up, last season Julio Rodriguez became the fastest player in MLB history to reach 15 HR and 20 SBs. It took him 81 games.

So if Elly can hit 5 HR and steal 3 bases in the next 22 games, he will have broken that record.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/08/14/elly-de-la-cruz-joins-barry-bonds-with-incredible-rookie-feat

I know some of these records feel arbitrary and nonsensical ("the first player to hit for the cycle while playing on a Friday in their home stadium when it's over 80 degrees Fahrenheit and the moon is just starting to peak out from behind the clouds...") but I think milestones in power + speed are relevant because they really highlight how rare it is to be both a power hitter AND a SB threat. Most players are either/or (or neither).

Elly has 30/30 or even 40/40 potential (There are only 4 players in MLB history who have stolen 40 bases and hit 40 HR in the same season).

If you stretch Elly's 58 games into a full 162 game season, he'd have:
123 Runs scored
176 hits
28 doubles
11 triples
28 HR
45 BB
249 SO (which would be a record)
50 stolen bases and 14 Caught Stealing
3.1 WAR

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-14-2023, 09:12 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Last night Elly De La Cruz hit his 10th career homerun.

He currently has 17 stolen bases.

In MLB history, only one player has reached 10 HR and 15 SB faster: Barry Bonds. And he did it in just one fewer games.

Elly has played 58 games in his career.

Another record coming up, last season Julio Rodriguez became the fastest player in MLB history to reach 15 HR and 20 SBs. It took him 81 games.

So if Elly can hit 5 HR and steal 3 bases in the next 22 games, he will have broken that record.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/08/14/elly-de-la-cruz-joins-barry-bonds-with-incredible-rookie-feat

I know some of these records feel arbitrary and nonsensical ("the first player to hit for the cycle while playing on a Friday in their home stadium when it's over 80 degrees Fahrenheit and the moon is just starting to peak out from behind the clouds...") but I think milestones in power + speed are relevant because they really highlight how rare it is to be both a power hitter AND a SB threat. Most players are either/or (or neither).

Elly has 30/30 or even 40/40 potential (There are only 4 players in MLB history who have stolen 40 bases and hit 40 HR in the same season).

If you stretch Elly's 58 games into a full 162 game season, he'd have:
123 Runs scored
176 hits
28 doubles
11 triples
28 HR
45 BB
249 SO (which would be a record)
50 stolen bases and 14 Caught Stealing
3.1 WAR

Yeah, I don't think we've even scratched the surface of Elly's potential yet. The guy just has freakish ability. His left handed swing is just pure power. When he learns he doesn't have to give it that extra umphh and learns to lay off the curve balls in the dirt. It's going to be a real show. Then you add in the speed and I can easily see him rewriting the record books and fast.

He just needs to develop some more polish and discipline at the plate.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-13-2023, 10:46 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Salvaged game 2 and also win the series!

Weaver just can't pitch deep enough into games. It's such a detriment to the BP.
In the past 5 games he's pitched, he's only gone beyond 4.0 innings once.

Reds are going to have a tough time pushing for the postseason if they can only get decent starts out of Abbott, Williamson, and Ashcraft.

They still have a few weeks before the AAA season ends and the Sept call-ups happen, at least another week before Greene can return, and even longer until Lodolo returns.

I'd like to see Greene boot out Weaver from the rotation once he returns, but I think it will be Richardson's spot. They might choose to go with the young upside of Richardson though over Weaver's continuous poor outings.
Then Lively and Lodolo (and maybe Phillips once called up in Sept?) can battle it out for that 5th rotational spot.

My worry is though that by the time the Reds get these guys back, how far back will they be?
They are 3.5 games out of the division lead and just outside of the WC.

WC teams:
Phillies - 65-54 (.546)
Giants - 63-55 (.534)
Marlins - 62-57 (.521)

Reds and Cubs a half game behind the Marlins for the final WC spot.

This season feels a lot like 2021. The Reds were at one point 12 games above .500 as late as Aug 27 (71-59), but they ended up floundering the last month of the season finishing 83-79.
For this season, they were at multiple points in July 10 games over .500. As of today, they are just 4 games above .500.

[CJD]

(08-14-2023, 10:24 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Weaver just can't pitch deep enough into games. It's such a detriment to the BP.
In the past 5 games he's pitched, he's only gone beyond 4.0 innings once.

Reds are going to have a tough time pushing for the postseason if they can only get decent starts out of Abbott, Williamson, and Ashcraft.

They still have a few weeks before the AAA season ends and the Sept call-ups happen, at least another week before Greene can return, and even longer until Lodolo returns.

I'd like to see Greene boot out Weaver from the rotation once he returns, but I think it will be Richardson's spot. They might choose to go with the young upside of Richardson though over Weaver's continuous poor outings.
Then Lively and Lodolo (and maybe Phillips once called up in Sept?) can battle it out for that 5th rotational spot.

My worry is though that by the time the Reds get these guys back, how far back will they be?
They are 3.5 games out of the division lead and just outside of the WC.

WC teams:
Phillies - 65-54 (.546)
Giants - 63-55 (.534)
Marlins - 62-57 (.521)

Reds and Cubs a half game behind the Marlins for the final WC spot.

This season feels a lot like 2021. The Reds were at one point 12 games above .500 as late as Aug 27 (71-59), but they ended up floundering the last month of the season finishing 83-79.
For this season, they were at multiple points in July 10 games over .500. As of today, they are just 4 games above .500.

The major difference between the 2021 roster and the 2023 roster is 2021 had a "this is your last chance" feel to it. 6 of 8 regular starters (Barnhart, Votto, Farmer, Suarez, Naquin, Castellanos) were 29 or older. Winker, Votto and Castellanos each had resurgent seasons but we still fell short.

They had just lost Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley, Anthony Desclafani, and Curt Casali (the first time) in the previous off season, and were going to lose Lorenzen and Castellanos the next off season. Castillo's control was coming due, Sonny Gray's bargain of a deal was a few years from coming due and there was just this feeling of time running out. 

2020 and 2021 were two competitive seasons in which it felt like we were on the verge of a collapse. When we missed the playoffs at the end of the 2021 season, it felt like that was the last straw and we needed to tear it down and build from scratch.

Which we did.

And that's where we are now. Even if we miss the playoffs this season (which, for the record, I think we likely do, unless Greene comes in and gives us a major shot in the arm), we know that the vast majority of this offense is rookies and 2nd year players who will continue to improve. This isn't the end of a window of opportunity. This is the beginning of that window.

And that makes me feel like we'll be okay regardless of how this season ends up.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-14-2023, 11:00 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The major difference between the 2021 roster and the 2023 roster is 2021 had a "this is your last chance" feel to it. 6 of 8 regular starters (Barnhart, Votto, Farmer, Suarez, Naquin, Castellanos) were 29 or older. Winker, Votto and Castellanos each had resurgent seasons but we still fell short.

They had just lost Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley, Anthony Desclafani, and Curt Casali (the first time) in the previous off season, and were going to lose Lorenzen and Castellanos the next off season. Castillo's control was coming due, Sonny Gray's bargain of a deal was a few years from coming due and there was just this feeling of time running out. 

2020 and 2021 were two competitive seasons in which it felt like we were on the verge of a collapse. When we missed the playoffs at the end of the 2021 season, it felt like that was the last straw and we needed to tear it down and build from scratch.

Which we did.

And that's where we are now. Even if we miss the playoffs this season (which, for the record, I think we likely do, unless Greene comes in and gives us a major shot in the arm), we know that the vast majority of this offense is rookies and 2nd year players who will continue to improve. This isn't the end of a window of opportunity. This is the beginning of that window.

And that makes me feel like we'll be okay regardless of how this season ends up.

For sure.
I wasn't meaning to imply it's this season or back to a rebuild.
This is probably the best young roster the Reds have had for the past 10+ years.
They have the opportunity to really bring in a couple good FAs (within reason) and compete for the next few years...if ownership wants to.

With all that said, I still would be sad to see the Reds miss the playoffs this year.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-14-2023, 11:20 AM)ochocincos Wrote: For sure.
I wasn't meaning to imply it's this season or back to a rebuild.
This is probably the best young roster the Reds have had for the past 10+ years.
They have the opportunity to really bring in a couple good FAs (within reason) and compete for the next few years...if ownership wants to.

With all that said, I still would be sad to see the Reds miss the playoffs this year.

For sure

I wouldn't totally rule us out this season. But. like crazydog says it's very questionable. If Greene comes back strong, we might have a shot? If not, I'd say we'll have to get some pretty big breaks from other teams.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-14-2023, 11:38 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: For sure

I wouldn't totally rule us out this season. But. like crazydog says it's very questionable. If Greene comes back strong, we might have a shot? If not, I'd say we'll have to get some pretty big breaks from other teams.

I don't think we'll see an improvement in the bullpen, unless maybe Antone's return and possibly the guy(s) who gets bumped out from the rotation can help eat some innings to give these guys a break.
Weaver is who he is at this point. He might be ok to pitch a couple innings as a middle reliever, but he can't pitch more than once through a rotation.
Ashcraft, Abbott, and Williamson seem reliable still.
Bats have cooled down since the ASB, which is to be expected for all these young guys.
The magic is starting to wear off and pitchers are starting to find out how to better attack them.

[*ochocincos*]

Something interesting I just noticed about Connor Phillips's recent days pitching for LOU...
Yesterday was the first day this season that Phillips pitched a game and didn't start.
Phillips was actually brought in as the 3rd reliever, getting the save.

This is making me think they are getting him ready for a September call-up in which he'll be put in the bullpen.

Side note - Lively started yesterday's LOU game, getting tagged for 6 runs and removed in the 1st inning.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-14-2023, 12:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't think we'll see an improvement in the bullpen, unless maybe Antone's return and possibly the guy(s) who gets bumped out from the rotation can help eat some innings to give these guys a break.
Weaver is who he is at this point. He might be ok to pitch a couple innings as a middle reliever, but he can't pitch more than once through a rotation.
Ashcraft, Abbott, and Williamson seem reliable still.
Bats have cooled down since the ASB, which is to be expected for all these young guys.
The magic is starting to wear off and pitchers are starting to find out how to better attack them.

Bingo

They've figured out DLC is a sucker for curve balls in the dirt. Don't even have to throw him strikes. CES seems to be slowly getting better at not swinging at junk. McClain, as good as he's been, still has at bats where he is a good bit of a free swinger. Steer seems to be the best of the bunch at not swinging at junk. 

[guyofthetiger]

The Reds, Brewers, and Cubs all off tonight. No gain or loss in the standings. Not sure if the Marlins played and the Wild Card status. Reds need to sweep the Guardians this week and get on the right track. Feel good about the starting pitching for these games. Go Reds!

[*ochocincos*]

(08-15-2023, 12:38 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: The Reds, Brewers, and Cubs all off tonight. No gain or loss in the standings. Not sure if the Marlins played and the Wild Card status. Reds need to sweep the Guardians this week and get on the right track. Feel good about the starting pitching for these games. Go Reds!

Right now, Reds and Cubs are 1.0 game back in the WC race. Philly, SF, and Miami hold the spots.

Brewers get the elite Dodgers for a 3-game series starting today, so that could help getting closer to the division lead.
Cubs have the White Sox though for a 2-game series, who only have 47 wins currently. Cubs then get the lowly Royals for a 3-game series this coming weekend while the Reds have the Blue Jays and the Brewers have the Rangers.
It's very possible after this weekend that the Cubs are leading the division.

[*ochocincos*]

Is it better to let Luke Maile be the primary catcher the rest of this year?
Maile is hitting better, and some (many?) believe the clavicle break for Stephenson is still affecting him.
By letting Maile be the primary catcher this year, it would allow Stephenson more time to rest.
It would also allow the Reds to have the current better hitter in the lineup more often to try to help push for the postseason.

[*bengalfan74*]

I just want to give another shout out to Spencer Steer. He kinda flies under the radar on the Reds hype train. And he's been as awesome or even more awesome than the rest.

He's in 2nd place on the team for runs scored with 56, only behind India's 68. He leads the team in hits 116, doubles 27, HR's 18, and RBI's 66. He's got decent speed - 10 stolen bases. He's batting .272 and that's with the most at bats on the team - 427. He has the highest OPS among guys with enough at bats .823 and that's good enough for 4th place overall. Benson = .902 McClain = .866 Votto = .832 only McClain is close to his at bats - 317

In summary Steer has been a very big part of the surge this year but you don't hear his name near enough.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-15-2023, 10:33 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Is it better to let Luke Maile be the primary catcher the rest of this year?
Maile is hitting better, and some (many?) believe the clavicle break for Stephenson is still affecting him.
By letting Maile be the primary catcher this year, it would allow Stephenson more time to rest.
It would also allow the Reds to have the current better hitter in the lineup more often to try to help push for the postseason.

Oh yes fully agree

Stephenson has been falling off BAD these last 30 games or so. He's batting .120 for the month of August

[CJD]

(08-15-2023, 10:33 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I just want to give another shout out to Spencer Steer. He kinda flies under the radar on the Reds hype train. And he's been as awesome or even more awesome than the rest.

He's in 2nd place on the team for runs scored with 56, only behind India's 68. He leads the team in hits 116, doubles 27, HR's 18, and RBI's 66. He's got decent speed - 10 stolen bases. He's batting .272 and that's with the most at bats on the team - 427. He has the highest OPS among guys with enough at bats .823 and that's good enough for 4th place overall. Benson = .902 McClain = .866 Votto = .832 only McClain is close to his at bats - 317

In summary Steer has been a very big part of the surge this year but you don't hear his name near enough.

The most impressive thing about Steer to me is that he's a right handed hitter who can hit right handed pitching. He's obviously better against lefties, as nearly all right handers are, but he is still hitting .259/.348/.428/.776 against righties, which is why he's an every day player. 

It's a weird situation being a right handed position player in the MLB because you're typically really good at hitting left handed pitching, which is still fairly rare in starting pitchers. In 2019, only 29% of starts were played by left handed hitters.

So, if you want to be a regular player as a right handed hitter, you need to be able to hit righties, with the ball arcing away from you. And Steer, despite only being a second year player, is already good enough at it to justify keeping him in the lineup regardless of who is pitching.

The same can be said of McLain, who is batting .285/.355/.464/.819 against righties (his stat line against lefties is borderline absurd, .333/.381/.628/1.009).

"left handed pitching specialists" like Nick Senzel and Kevin Newman are only hitting .175/.251/.281/.533 and .234/.282/.289/.571, respectively, against right handed pitching. That's what makes them LHP specialists haha. If they were any good at hitting righties, they'd be playing every day like Steer and McLain do.


This is a side note, but I looked up every right handed hitter on our team when writing this up and I think I've identified what is so frustrating about Johnathan India.

Despite being a right handed hitter, he is only batting .216/.306/.361/.667 against left handed pitchers. His line against right handers is actually much better, .263/.345/.424/.769. 

It's a small sample size, with only 97 ABs against lefties this season, and in previous seasons his splits are more reflective of what a right handed hitter should be, but that may be what feels off about India this season.

Right handed hitters kind of rely on those left handed match ups to bolster their Batting Avg because they are so favored in the match up but, for whatever reason, India has not been able to capitalize on those ABs. So he's struggling against righties, which nearly every right handed hitter does to some degree, but then he's also struggling against lefties. That is a combination that results in a struggling season all around.