Green is great-but is he really ELITE?

[Beaker]

(12-30-2015, 02:56 AM)3wt Wrote: Pretty much every elite receiver has had bad plays.  Randy Moss and TO had numerous bad drops.  The failure to keep running was a case of bad judgement.  He has some improvement to make, but I do think he's in an elite class.

Having drops and giving up on plays are two entirely different things in terms of ability. Dropping the ball is getting where you are supposed to be, going all out to make the catch, and some factor intervenes to prevent it. The only factor that intervenes when you give up on a play is your desire. And that desire is also a factor in making contested catches. You know those other guys were really good at going up and taking the ball....the desire that it was theirs whether they were covered or not. That seems to be the only thing keeping AJ from being considered elite. Once he finds that, he will be unstoppable.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-30-2015, 12:08 PM)Beaker Wrote: Having drops and giving up on plays are two entirely different things in terms of ability. Dropping the ball is getting where you are supposed to be, going all out to make the catch, and some factor intervenes to prevent it. The only factor that intervenes when you give up on a play is your desire. And that desire is also a factor in making contested catches. You know those other guys were really good at going up and taking the ball....the desire that it was theirs whether they were covered or not. That seems to be the only thing keeping AJ from being considered elite. Once he finds that, he will be unstoppable.

I agree....and he has improved his blocking, but it could use a little more.  

[fredtoast]

(12-30-2015, 02:17 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote:  Now add in the fact that he isn't clutch in "big games" at all and him and elite aren't in the same sentence.

You can't add that because it is not true.  Green has had multiple clutch performances in "big games".

The only people who think Green is nnot elite are people who never watch any other NFL WRs play except in highlights.  These people just do not realize that other WRs who they call "elite" also hyave drops and get shut down from time to time.

[Beaker]

(01-02-2016, 01:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The only people who think Green is nnot elite are people who never watch any other NFL WRs play except in highlights.

Wrong again fred.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-02-2016, 01:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You can't add that because it is not true.  Green has had multiple clutch performances in "big games".

The only people who think Green is nnot elite are people who never watch any other NFL WRs play except in highlights.  These people just do not realize that other WRs who they call "elite" also hyave drops and get shut down from time to time.

Here comes the "if you don't agree with me, you don't know anything about football" wrath of Fred.

What might be so frustrating about Green is his ability to make an incredible catch that showcases his ability, but you only see that AJ from time to time.  His inconsistency is maddening.  The same could be said about Dalton in prior years, but not this year.  Dalton was money every game.  AJ has not reached that point yet.  

[fredtoast]

(01-02-2016, 02:01 PM)Beaker Wrote: Wrong again fred.

You are right.

Some people just don't know what they are talking about even if they have seen other WRs play.

[fredtoast]

(01-02-2016, 02:08 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Here comes the "if you don't agree with me, you don't know anything about football" wrath of Fred.

No, if you had actually read what I have posted in this thread you would understand.  I have not posted "opinion".  I have posted stats to back up every thing I have said.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-30-2015, 02:17 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Which AJ isn't !

Michael Irvin summed him up well like midseason. "AJ is an excellent athlete and an awesome Wr, but he isn't physical enough to be truly elite". 

Words to that effect. Now add in the fact that he isn't clutch in "big games" at all and him and elite aren't in the same sentence.

All this, plus he has zero 100 reception years and zero 1,500 yard years. 

2012 and 2013 he was right on the verge, then the injury plagued last year happened. He should be close to the '12 and '13 numbers, but those put him just outside of elite level.

Very good. Not elite.

[*rfaulk34*]

A. 405 receptions 6,052 yards 14.9 average 34 tds 8 fumbles 4 lost
B. 411 receptions 6,137 yards 14.9 average 44 tds 8 fumbles 4 lost

A. 63 games
B. 75 games


A. Julio Jones
B. AJ Green

[Beaker]

(01-02-2016, 03:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are right.

Some people just don't know what they are talking about even if they have seen other WRs play.

There ya go. You're a little closer with that one.

[CincyProduct]

(09-14-2015, 11:11 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Eh

I wouldn't put him at top five, but I can see an argument that he's #5

Antonio Brown
Dez Bryant
Calvin Johnson
Demaryius Thomas
Jordy Nelson
A.J. Green
Brandon Marshal
Julio Jones

Nelson is on IR.....didn't know rankings gave a pass to injuries. Can't make the club in the tub...IMO he is better than Jordy and Demaryius. I wonder why these guys above him don't have the record for first 5 seasons in the league....

[Shake n Blake]

(01-03-2016, 12:26 AM)CincyProduct Wrote: Nelson is on IR.....didn't know rankings gave a pass to injuries. Can't make the club in the tub...IMO he is better than Jordy and Demaryius. I wonder why these guys above him don't have the record for first 5 seasons in the league....

While I do think AJ Green is a top 5ish WR, I will say this. He and Dalton have all those "first 5 years" records because they actually played as rookies and hit the ground running. 

Many QBs and WRs sit and learn or are slowly worked in, so they didn't make an impact initially. That doesn't necessarily mean that AJ Green is better than Calvin Johnson or that Dalton is better than Joe Montana. 

That's why it kills me when people knock Chad Johnson for only having 329 yards as a rookie. I guess people aren't old enough to remember that he barely played as a rookie. This doesn't mean he sucked. It just means he needed some seasoning before reaching his true potential. AJ Green was NFL ready, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's better than all the WRs who weren't.

Btw, it also helps that AJ Green and Dalton have stayed mostly healthy in their first 5 years.

[CJD]

AJ Green is, in my opinion, either #5 or #6, depending on how you look at the receivers.

Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown are, in my opinion, better than him. Then you have Deandre Hopkins that does more with less than any other receiver in the game. It makes you curious what he'd do if he had a competent QB throwing to him.

Then, in my mind, you have AJ who is better than Hopkins, but also has way more talent around him that Hopkins, so it's hard to judge them.


This conversation about Green comes up every time he makes a bad play or drops a critical pass, but the truth is no receiver is perfect.

You don't make the pro bowl in every single year you're in the NFL if you aren't elite. I know it's a popularity contest, but he's popular for a reason.

[Wes Mantooth]

To be truly great don't you need to be elite? It seems like we're splitting hairs here.

I often wonder of some of you confuse the word "elite" with the word "perfect". Because AJ Green is not perfect, there is no doubt about that. But I would argue that is elite. Quite easily I might add. But whether or not you'd agree depends on your definition of the word.

I don't think an elite group of players needs to be an exact amount. While they're could be, say, 5 elite QB's, they're might only be 3 elite cornerbacks. And they're might be 7 elite running backs, and 8 elite receivers. (These are just examples, the numbers aren't important)

To me an elite grouping of players is simply a group that is a class above everyone else, even the good players. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees. Those are elite quarterbacks. Peyton Manning until this season was most definitely in this group. Cam Newton is playing his way into this group. Not only are these guys producing well above average numbers, but they're proven too. It's not just a flash in the pan type of performance. (Hence, why I'm somewhat reluctant to include Cam Newton just yet)

So which receivers are elite and why? Personally, I still think you start with Calvin Johnson. Physically he's superior to everyone else. He may have tailed off somewhat but I think his numbers have more to do with the trainwreck that is that team. Then I think you have to have Antonio Bryant and Julio Jones. And I think you round out the group with AJ Green, Dez Bryant, and O'dell Beckham. That's your elite receivers. You can argue some are better than others, just like you can argue Tom Brady is better than Brees. But these guys are to receivers what other elite players are to their positions.

Does AJ Green make mistakes? Yes. But so does Dez Bryant. So does O'dell Beckham. Calvin Johnson had 2 cacthes for about 40 yards in a recent two game stretch. O'dell Beckham dropped a sure-fire TD against the Panthers and proceeded to let Norman rattle him. They all have their moments.

Not to mention, this isn't even bringing up their intangibles. I think most would agree that AJ Green is more of stable and likely better teammate than Dez Bryant, right? And O'dell Beckham. That's got to count for something does it not?

He's been healthier than Julio Jones. He's been more consistent in terms of numbers than more than a few of these guys.

To recap: He has "elite numbers", he's a relatively model teammate, he's been as healthy as any of these guys, he's been more consistent than most, and every single one of these guys makes mistakes. So what leaves him out for those who argue against his worthiness. Because if you don't consider him to be elite than I really hope your list is no more than 3 deep.

There is no way you can convince me that AJ Green is not elite but Dez Bryant somehow is. There is no way you can convince me that a guy like Demayrius Thomas leap frogs AJ Green. There is no way you can include a name like Deandre Hopkins after 1 big year, when he's their only weapon.

Personally, I think people get frustrated with AJ Green because they have greater expectations for him than any other offensive weapon. And I think they apply a set of standards to him they they either don't apply to other receivers, or they simply don't watch other receivers play. That, or they only think there's 3 elite receivers. I would love for someone to give their group that has AJ out of it, and explain exactly what the criteria is.

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-02-2016, 04:20 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: A. 405 receptions 6,052 yards 14.9 average 34 tds 8 fumbles 4 lost
B. 411 receptions 6,137 yards 14.9 average 44 tds 8 fumbles 4 lost

A. 63 games
B. 75 games


A. Julio Jones
B. AJ Green

Player B has more receptions, more yards, the same exact YPC average and turnover statistics, and a whopping 30% more TD's.  Oh, and his team has won more games. (Wait, are wins only a Dalton statistic?)

Are we really penalizing AJ for staying healthy?  And let us not forget that Julio Jones enjoyed at or near his prime Roddy White his first two or three seasons lining up on the other side, and a perhaps the greatest Tight End to ever play as well.  And he had a better QB in years 1-4 as well.  Could that not all add up to the idea that he drew less coverage and say better thrown balls for much of this time?

Is it easy to argue that Julio Jones has been better as of late?  Sure.  But I'm not so sure it's as simple as throwing up a 1,700 yard stat line vs an 1,100.  Julio Jones is just seeing an insane amount of targets.  Most in the NFL.  He's been targeted 70 more times than Green.  And a lot of that has to do with team being really good, and having to throw less, because they sit on leads and the other team being pretty bad and having to throw more because they're often playing from behind or are in a shootout. Not to mention AJ has been paired with a backup and ulta conservative offense this last month.

I get where you're going with this, which is obviously the averages.  But pointing at the fact, that as far proven numbers, what actually happened, AJ Green has outperformed Julio Jones thus far in their careers, is only going to convince me more that he deserves to be in that group.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-03-2016, 01:40 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Player B has more receptions, more yards, the same exact YPC average and turnover statistics, and a whopping 30% more TD's.  Oh, and his team has won more games. (Wait, are wins only a Dalton statistic?)

Are we really penalizing AJ for staying healthy?  And let us not forget that Julio Jones enjoyed at or near his prime Roddy White his first two or three seasons lining up on the other side, and a perhaps the greatest Tight End to ever play as well.  And he had a better QB in years 1-4 as well.  Could that not all add up to the idea that he drew less coverage and say better thrown balls for much of this time?

Is it easy to argue that Julio Jones has been better as of late?  Sure.  But I'm not so sure it's as simple as throwing up a 1,700 yard stat line vs an 1,100.  Julio Jones is just seeing an insane amount of targets.  Most in the NFL.  He's been targeted 70 more times than Green.  And a lot of that has to do with team being really good, and having to throw less, because they sit on leads and the other team being pretty bad and having to throw more because they're often playing from behind or are in a shootout.  Not to mention AJ has been paired with a backup and ulta conservative offense this last month.

I get where you're going with this, which is obviously the averages.  But pointing at the fact, that as far proven numbers, what actually happened, AJ Green has outperformed Julio Jones thus far in their careers, is only going to convince me more that he deserves to be in that group.

If you could have the optimal QB and be guaranteed the health of the QB and WR for the entire season, what order would you take these receivers?

A.J. Green
Julio Jones
Antonio Brown

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-03-2016, 01:54 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If you could have the optimal QB and be guaranteed the health of the QB and WR for the entire season, what order would you take these receivers?

A.J. Green
Julio Jones
Antonio Brown

I would take Julio Jones first, then it's a toss up.  Part of me leans towards Antonio Brown based on sheer production but part of me wants the 6'4 receiver over the 5'10 receiver, that currently enjoys playing with, in my opinion, the 2nd best QB in the league.

But let's just say I'm ranking them right now, it's 1.) Jones 2.) Brown 3. Green.  No question.

I have no problem admitting that a good number are going to have AJ Green 3rd on that list right now.  But that doesn't do anything to change my mind.  I again point to the fact the many of us must view a different numbers of players actually worthy of that label.  I would tag somewhere around 5-8 guys with the an elite value, at the WR position.  And Green most certainly falls into that category for me.

Lastly, guaranteed healthy is one mighty hypothetical. The fact is, not only is Julio Jones more injury prone, but he's sustained multiple injuries to the same area.  He broke the same foot again in 2013 that he did in the combine, which resulted him needing screws put in and was so bad that he missed almost the entire season.  I don't know that has anything to do with determining his value right now but is a little concerning.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-02-2016, 04:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No, if you had actually read what I have posted in this thread you would understand.  I have not posted "opinion".  I have posted stats to back up every thing I have said.

Stats that back up your position are as easy to generate as stats that back up my position.  If you have missed upon the point that in his biggest games, AJ has been a non-factor in more of them than he has been a positive impact then you haven't been watching many games.

For a player paid nearly what our QB is paid, I expect more.  

[*bfine32*]

(01-02-2016, 04:20 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: A. 405 receptions 6,052 yards 14.9 average 34 tds 8 fumbles 4 lost
B. 411 receptions 6,137 yards 14.9 average 44 tds 8 fumbles 4 lost

A. 63 games
B. 75 games


A. Julio Jones
B. AJ Green

Player B seems like a better player from the given stats. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-03-2016, 02:10 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I would take Julio Jones first, then it's a toss up.  Part of me leans towards Antonio Brown based on sheer production but part of me wants the 6'4 receiver over the 5'10 receiver, that currently enjoys playing with, in my opinion, the 2nd best QB in the league.

But let's just say I'm ranking them right now, it's 1.) Jones 2.) Brown 3. Green.  No question.

I have no problem admitting that a good number are going to have AJ Green 3rd on that list right now.  But that doesn't do anything to change my mind.  I again point to the fact the many of us must view a different numbers of players actually worthy of that label.  I would tag somewhere around 5-8 guys with the an elite value, at the WR position.  And Green most certainly falls into that category for me.

Lastly, guaranteed healthy is one mighty hypothetical. The fact is, not only is Julio Jones more injury prone, but he's sustained multiple injuries to the same area.  He broke the same foot again in 2013 that he did in the combine, which resulted him needing screws put in and was so bad that he missed almost the entire season.  I don't know that has anything to do with determining his value right now but is a little concerning.

I agree that he falls into that range, and probably closer to 5 than 8. I would just probably cut down my list to, at most, 4.

If we're talking #1 receivers, that's 32 in the NFL. Four is more than 10% and that's about the limit i would consider for anything elite.