Posts: 2,981
Threads: 27
Reputation:
16737
Joined: Jan 2022
ESPN released their simulation for the last three weeks of the season, a simulation that they said in 2022 predicted correctly the 7 AFC playoff teams. They did 10,000 simulations, with the result of the Bengals ending up out of the playoffs.
They presented simulation number 5,639 as an example. In this one: The Bengals lose to the Steelers 24-23, lose to the Chiefs 19-9, and lose to the Browns 23-16.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39155267/simulation-nfl-2023-season-last-three-weeks-playoffs-super-bowl-draft
Posts: 3,615
Threads: 20
Reputation:
11382
Joined: Apr 2021
(12-21-2023, 07:15 PM)Nepa Wrote: ESPN released their simulation for the last three weeks of the season, a simulation that they said in 2022 predicted correctly the 7 AFC playoff teams. They did 10,000 simulations, with the result of the Bengals ending up out of the playoffs.
They presented simulation number 5,639 as an example. In this one: The Bengals lose to the Steelers 24-23, lose to the Chiefs 19-9, and lose to the Browns 23-16.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39155267/simulation-nfl-2023-season-last-three-weeks-playoffs-super-bowl-draft
I could definitely see us going 1-2 over the next 3. If we lose to the Steelers it will be very disappointing and hopefully we go back to more of the offense we were calling against Jax and Indy and not so much the Vikings.
I also think we needed Dallas to beat Buffalo last week. I don't really see us making the playoffs but we'll see what the week brings.
Posts: 2,981
Threads: 27
Reputation:
16737
Joined: Jan 2022
(12-21-2023, 07:27 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I could definitely see us going 1-2 over the next 3. If we lose to the Steelers it will be very disappointing and hopefully we go back to more of the offense we were calling against Jax and Indy and not so much the Vikings.
I also think we needed Dallas to beat Buffalo last week. I don't really see us making the playoffs but we'll see what the week brings.
Certainly little margin for error. Unfortunately, running into a Steelers team that thought they were destined for the playoffs when they were 7-4 just three weeks ago. They and their fans will be going all out to save their season. It's going to be intense, with both teams needing the victory. Maybe being discounted since Burrow went down -- ESPN didn't even list the Bengals among their playoff contenders just two weeks ago -- will push the Bengals to new heights on Saturday.
Posts: 36,296
Threads: 49
Reputation:
234784
Joined: May 2015
Location: Star Valley, Wyoming
Hope espn is wrong. They are a lot and I take what they do at all times with a grain of salt. Only a couple people on there I respect.
If this was CBS Sports or NFL Network I would take it more seriously.
We are playing better than the stealers, the Chiefs and the Stains right now. Browning should take this next game personally as it was
the one game he didn't play very well in and we still barely lost.
1
Posts: 15,756
Threads: 164
Reputation:
23151
Joined: May 2015
(12-21-2023, 09:32 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Hope espn is wrong. They are a lot and I take what they do at all times with a grain of salt. Only a couple people on there I respect.
If this was CBS Sports or NFL Network I would take it more seriously.
We are playing better than the stealers, the Chiefs and the Stains right now. Browning should take this next game personally as it was
the one game he didn't play very well in and we still barely lost.
What you're saying is you don't trust their simulation software though as it's not a single person's opinion on the result. It's definitely not an uncertainty we lose the next 3 games, losing to the Steelers would be a deflator for sure, going into KC and playing the Browns anywhere is no guarantee.
Posts: 36,296
Threads: 49
Reputation:
234784
Joined: May 2015
Location: Star Valley, Wyoming
(12-21-2023, 09:35 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: What you're saying is you don't trust their simulation software though as it's not a single person's opinion on the result. It's definitely not an uncertainty we lose the next 3 games, losing to the Steelers would be a deflator for sure, going into KC and playing the Browns anywhere is no guarantee.
Yeah, that is what I am saying. I could be wrong though and their simulation is gospel, just doubt it. I like how our team is playing right now.
Tons of fight and we don't give up.
Posts: 15,756
Threads: 164
Reputation:
23151
Joined: May 2015
(12-21-2023, 09:39 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, that is what I am saying. I could be wrong though and their simulation is gospel, just doubt it. I like how our team is playing right now.
Tons of fight and we don't give up.
I think we'd deflate if we lose in PITT, their defense is good. It would be hard to make the playoffs if we lost there, but I don't think the simulator takes into account emotions lol.
Posts: 5,689
Threads: 4
Reputation:
21990
Joined: Dec 2018
F ESPN. That's enough letters.
Like a teenage girl driving a Ferrari.
Posts: 6,071
Threads: 873
Reputation:
15300
Joined: May 2015
(12-21-2023, 07:15 PM)Nepa Wrote: ESPN released their simulation for the last three weeks of the season, a simulation that they said in 2022 predicted correctly the 7 AFC playoff teams. They did 10,000 simulations, with the result of the Bengals ending up out of the playoffs.
They presented simulation number 5,639 as an example. In this one: The Bengals lose to the Steelers 24-23, lose to the Chiefs 19-9, and lose to the Browns 23-16.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39155267/simulation-nfl-2023-season-last-three-weeks-playoffs-super-bowl-draft
As Paul Brown once said. " These so called media experts every year say who will win each game and who will win The Super Bowl. It makes you wonder why we even play the games. However since these media people are more wrong than they are right, then I say lets go ahead and play the games. ".
GO BENGALS
1968 Bengal Fan
Posts: 7,831
Threads: 3
Reputation:
13213
Joined: Sep 2016
Location: BurningArizona
its equally fun if we do spoilers...
Posts: 19,116
Threads: 235
Reputation:
177811
Joined: May 2015
(12-21-2023, 09:32 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Hope espn is wrong.
They are. ESPN is worth their weight in shit!
Posts: 3,152
Threads: 258
Reputation:
5159
Joined: May 2015
I don't believe these so called simulations. The game is played on the field. I hope we win all 3 remaining games and go 11-6. That will get us in the playoffs for sure.
Who Dey!
Posts: 6,552
Threads: 88
Reputation:
45451
Joined: Apr 2017
(12-21-2023, 09:52 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: I think we'd deflate if we lose in PITT, their defense is good. It would be hard to make the playoffs if we lost there, but I don't think the simulator takes into account emotions lol.
Steelers are 20th in total D
Vikings are 13th in total D
1
1
Posts: 7,775
Threads: 854
Reputation:
127786
Joined: May 2015
Location: Ohio
Their simulations had the Saints beating the Rams tonight...
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media0.giphy.com/media/3ohzdYJK1wAdPWVk88/giphy.gif)
Posts: 20,787
Threads: 99
Reputation:
193499
Joined: May 2015
Location: Bluegrass Region
(12-21-2023, 10:33 PM)kevin Wrote: As Paul Brown once said. " These so called media experts every year say who will win each game and who will win The Super Bowl. It makes you wonder why we even play the games. However since these media people are more wrong than they are right, then I say lets go ahead and play the games. ".
GO BENGALS
ESPN's SEC suckasses certainly don't believe the games matter. Neither does the CFP. I give two shits about what ESPN says.
"Better send those refunds..."
Posts: 6,071
Threads: 873
Reputation:
15300
Joined: May 2015
(12-22-2023, 02:21 AM)Wyche Wrote: ESPN's SEC suckasses certainly don't believe the games matter. Neither does the CFP. I give two shits about what ESPN says.
I just want to make it clear that when Paul Brown said this around 1970, he was not talking about computer games or simulated games. He was saying lets go ahead and play the game on the field and see what really happens. He was saying that if the media was right, there would be no reason to play any games, but since the media is wrong most of the time, let's go ahead and play the actual games on the field.
1968 Bengal Fan
Posts: 16,414
Threads: 151
Reputation:
61627
Joined: May 2015
(12-21-2023, 07:15 PM)Nepa Wrote: ESPN released their simulation for the last three weeks of the season, a simulation that they said in 2022 predicted correctly the 7 AFC playoff teams. They did 10,000 simulations, with the result of the Bengals ending up out of the playoffs.
They presented simulation number 5,639 as an example. In this one: The Bengals lose to the Steelers 24-23, lose to the Chiefs 19-9, and lose to the Browns 23-16.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39155267/simulation-nfl-2023-season-last-three-weeks-playoffs-super-bowl-draft
when you run 10,000 simulations 1 is bound to be close
Posts: 16,786
Threads: 417
Reputation:
95963
Joined: May 2015
Well it's ESPN.... so....
It's not like they are a sports network anymore.
Posts: 15,756
Threads: 164
Reputation:
23151
Joined: May 2015
I still think you guys are talking about media heads at ESPN and not software. I don't think those media heads are smart enough to provide any input on the algorithms used for prediction. I'm not saying they are right or wrong but Vegas is using algorithms to screw most people out of money, there isn't any talking head involved.
OP's first sentence said: "2022 predicted correctly the 7 AFC playoff teams.". Could just be beginner's luck lol, but the 2022 season's last 3 weeks was probably not as cluttered as the 2023 season.
It also doesn't have enough data on Jake Browning to predict properly, probably. And it definitely has no data on Browning without Ja'marr.
Does anyone have any simulation software they do trust? Who else is simulating games other than Vegas? If Vegas didn't trust their simulations would they even exist as a gambling institution? Lol. I guess the purpose of simulation is to err on the side of 51% or higher in being correct. If we could predict, I'd be Biff Tannen.
Posts: 15,756
Threads: 164
Reputation:
23151
Joined: May 2015
(12-21-2023, 11:27 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Steelers are 20th in total D
Vikings are 13th in total D
Steelers O winning them all those games. 
|
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
