Trade Candidates?

[Au165]

Here is the thing. If you rip it down to rebuild, I am talking try to sell off everything, why keep Frazier? By the time they are good again he will be coming out of his prime and will probably be on the back end off a big contract he isn't living up to. At this point they need to trade anything they can get value for and try to rebuild for 3 or 4 years down the line. The opportunity to win now is gone.

[*michaelsean*]

Nobody wants to lose Frazier, but nobody is going to trade us prospects for the likes of Negron. You have to trade good players to get good players. I figure you then staff your team with a mix of older cheaper players and youth, and suck it up for a couple of years.

[kevin]

but...here is the problem with this idea of blow the whole thing up, get rid of everybody, suck it up a few years and rebuild.....You are then raping your minor league system....You have to bring the minor league players to the majors at just the right time, it is an art. .....Players rushed from the minors to the majors often get blown away, shell shocked, and often possible careers are ruined by bringing minor league talent along to fast. ....You build for the future with the farm system, in the farm system. In places like Dayton and Louisville. ...You do NOT rush the minor league youth to the majors......and if you do, it not only doesn't help the major league Reds, but by raping your minors you are now way behind the 8 ball and it will take 5 years at least to rebuild the whole mess from Single A on up. .....This is why you don't fire scouts, this is why you don't gut your farm teams by dumping all your vets and rushing up your youth way to fast. .....and this is why you don't dump all the Reds roster and put all the Louisville Bats in Reds uniforms. ...The rebuilding job from such a bonehead move would take 5 years or more to recover from as they have to rebuild the farm system from the ground up......The real future of the Reds may indeed be in the farm system now, but bring them along right. When they are ready. When it is time. Don't be stupid about the farm system. ....So Reds can not get rid of all the veteran players, it would just kill the farm teams and any chance of winning in the upcoming years as people wish.....Yes, there will be players like Cueto traded no doubt....but the idea that if we can trade everybody, do it, that is just not a good move. Bringing all the players in the minors up a level across the board would ruin our farm system for at least 5 years. You rush these prospects and you ruin most of them and destroy the rebuilding instead of help it. The Reds have already had to rush a bunch of rookies into the starting rotation due to injuries to veterans. I hope they can handle it because I've seen a lot of careers ruined over players brought to the Bigs to fast and to soon.....The real future lies in bringing the farm system players along at the right time, only when they are ready.

and that is a huge difference than Bengals because NFL has no farm system.....a whole different game.....baseball needs the farm systems. Most players must be developed over years in the minors....and why we can't unload all our vets if possible. Pete Rose and the 1975 Reds gave a lot of the credit to the quality coaches and scouts in the Reds farm system that brought them along right. So who is to say when a minor league player is ready for the Bigs ? The quality coaches and scouts working in the minors are the best to say if a player is ready to move from A to Double A or Double A to Triple A or the huge jump to the Bigs....It's nothing you rush in a blow it all up youth movement.

Frazier could be the Reds third baseman for the next 5 to 10 years, and I see no great need to rush him out the door as an OLD 30 as they did Frank Robinson as an OLD 30.....as Reds got Pappas and a lot of cash,cash, cash.... and Frank Robinson won the Triple Crown in Baltimore and it was almost fitting he helped beat the Reds in the 1970 World Series. ....You would think Frank Robinson is enough for Cincinnati to throw out the OLD 30 SO TRADE HIM idea. .....Frazier could and should be our third baseman into his late 30's.....Any trade involving Frazier should include one of the TOP 5 Prospects in baseball by the other team, and even then, I feel like we are getting the short end of the deal.

[Paul from Dayton]

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(06-17-2015, 12:11 PM)kevin Wrote: Frazier could be the Reds third baseman for the next 5 to 10 years, and I see no great need to rush him out the door as an OLD 30 as they did Frank Robinson as an OLD 30.....as Reds got Pappas and a lot of cash,cash, cash.... and Frank Robinson won the Triple Crown in Baltimore and it was almost fitting he helped beat the Reds in the 1970 World Series. ....You would think Frank Robinson is enough for Cincinnati to throw out the OLD 30 SO TRADE HIM idea. .....Frazier could and should be our third baseman into his late 30's.....Any trade involving Frazier should include one of the TOP 5 Prospects in baseball by the other team, and even then, I feel like we are getting the short end of the deal.

We aren't the type of organization that should have 37 year old 3rd baseman. We need to constantly be churning out older players for newer/younger players. That's how we got into this mess. We had no business giving BP that contract. Todd would be the same thing. By the time we had a team around him that could actually compete, he'd be 34-35 and on the decline.

It sucks and I like Todd as much as any Reds fan, but it's time to take our medicine and really try to get back to the small market philosophy.

[Goalpost]

(06-17-2015, 12:11 PM)kevin Wrote: but...here is the problem with this idea of blow the whole thing up, get rid of everybody, suck it up a few years and rebuild.....You are then raping your minor league system....You have to bring the minor league players to the majors at just the right time, it is an art. .....Players rushed from the minors to the majors often get blown away, shell shocked, and often possible careers are ruined by bringing minor league talent along to fast. ....You build for the future with the farm system, in the farm system. In places like Dayton and Louisville. ...You do NOT rush the minor league youth to the majors......and if you do, it not only doesn't help the major league Reds, but by raping your minors you are now way behind the 8 ball and it will take 5 years at least to rebuild the whole mess from Single A on up. .....

Not necessarily.  Look at a guy like DeSclafani(sp) who the Reds got for Latos.  No minor league players had to be rushed.  We've acquired a player who has pitched well at the major league level...8 quality starts so far. 

[*michaelsean*]

Kevin that's why you mix cheaper vets with young guys that are ready to come up. And we still have Cozart, Votto, and Mez for sure. Probably Bruce. A Marlon Byrd. Some of the youth you trade for can be on the verge of coming up.

[hotweales]

Here is the deal and I think what some of you are missing. The Cincinnati Reds showed a profit of 2.2 million in 2014. There simply is not any room to continue to keep guys with some of the contracts we are currently stuck with. I don't see anyone willing to take Votto's contract, or Bruce's contract and maybe not Brandon's contract, so you are between a rock and a hard place. you only signed Frazier to a 2 year deal and that is at only like 6 million. Where is the money going to come from? Okay, so you are going to let Cueto go, that frees a little cash, but not enough to rebuild a pitching staff and bull pen. Castellini has said he is okay with break even, but not much money left with current player salaries. Votto's salary jumps 6 million next season and Bruce's goes up as well. So someone please tell my have you keep Frazier? I like him as a player and would hate to see him go, but I just don't think the money is available to keep him and rebuild.

[kevin]

(06-17-2015, 01:25 PM)Paul from Dayton Wrote: We
We aren't the type of organization that should have 37 year old 3rd baseman.  We need to constantly be churning out older players for newer/younger players. That's how we got into this mess. We had no business giving BP that contract.  Todd would be the same thing.  By the time we had a team around him that could actually compete, he'd be 34-35 and on the decline.

It sucks and I like Todd as much as any Reds fan, but it's time to take our medicine and really try to get back to the small market philosophy.

If the Reds become so small market that they constantly get rid of veteran players for young players and as those young players start to become veterans the Reds churn them out for more young players, then the Reds won't be worth watching, period.....The Reds will have become the Little Sisters Of The Poor, basically a version of a minor league team between triple A and MLB....The Reds would break in these young players so they can become veterans with Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets and other teams.....If baseball becomes the teams that can afford teams and teams that can't, and the Reds fall into the teams that can't, then I will just stop watching baseball all together. I hate the Yankees. I do not want to be the team that scouts and coaches up high school players and just as they start becoming good we sell them to teams like the Yankees.  I am a Reds fan and the Reds should not be where minor league kids break in before going to the rich teams. ....Also, the Reds now have money from Fox Ohio TV and are making much more TV money than before.  The Cincinnati should be just as quality a team as St Louis.  St Louis isn't into the small market philosophy and Cincinnati should not be either. 

If Reds ever become so small market they are just a step up from triple A ball but not a real major league team, then baseball will no longer be worth watching.  This is why I like the NFL and the shared TV revenue and salary cap making parity. .....but the Reds have a pretty good TV deal now and they are not The Little Sisters Of The Poor as some of you make out. ....You people are so worried where the money will come from, and the Reds probably are making more money than you know. It's not just the ticket sales, they have a very good TV contract these days. 

[kevin]

(06-19-2015, 01:41 AM)hotweales Wrote: Here is the deal and I think what some of you are missing.  The Cincinnati Reds showed a profit of 2.2 million in 2014.  There simply is not any room to continue to keep guys with some of the contracts we are currently stuck with.  I don't see anyone willing to take Votto's contract, or Bruce's contract and maybe not Brandon's contract, so you are between a rock and a hard place.  you only signed Frazier to a 2 year deal and that is at only like 6 million.  Where is the money going to come from?  Okay, so you are going to let Cueto go, that frees a little cash, but not enough to rebuild a pitching staff and bull pen.  Castellini has said he is okay with break even, but not much money left with current player salaries.  Votto's salary jumps 6 million next season and Bruce's goes up as well.  So someone please tell my have you keep Frazier?  I like him as a player and would hate to see him go, but I just don't think the money is available to keep him and rebuild.

You make it sound like Frazier contract is something Reds CAN afford, so we should keep him then. We need as good third baseman and he is a good third baseman. .....As with Frank Robinson, I'm not buying this song and dance that he is an old 30. 

[Hoofhearted]

(06-17-2015, 01:25 PM)Paul from Dayton Wrote: We
We aren't the type of organization that should have 37 year old 3rd baseman.  We need to constantly be churning out older players for newer/younger players. That's how we got into this mess. We had no business giving BP that contract.  Todd would be the same thing.  By the time we had a team around him that could actually compete, he'd be 34-35 and on the decline.

It sucks and I like Todd as much as any Reds fan, but it's time to take our medicine and really try to get back to the small market philosophy.

The problem with this Paul is you almost HAVE to be right about your prospect; you simply cannot afford to miss on little to any prospects to be a WS caliber team. With that being said, this team doesn't have what it needs in place to do that: an advanced analytic department. Look up what the Cards, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and all those organizations put into their analytics. They dump millions into developing formulas to decipher what hitter has a better chance vs a pitcher and vice versa. The Reds are still stuck in "the old school way" of experience. Problem with that is people are human and usually cant remember that Votto - for example - bats .189 vs a certain pitcher. Maybe we should sit him vs that pitcher? Old school method would say no - he's our best player and anything can happen.

And most of all, you need a face of your franchise for at least SOME people to come watch. I know I would still come watch them, but there are ALOT that would likely stop coming if we turned into a glorified AAA team. Gotta spend money to make money.

[Hoofhearted]

(06-19-2015, 01:41 AM)hotweales Wrote: Here is the deal and I think what some of you are missing.  The Cincinnati Reds showed a profit of 2.2 million in 2014.  There simply is not any room to continue to keep guys with some of the contracts we are currently stuck with.  I don't see anyone willing to take Votto's contract, or Bruce's contract and maybe not Brandon's contract, so you are between a rock and a hard place.  you only signed Frazier to a 2 year deal and that is at only like 6 million.  Where is the money going to come from?  Okay, so you are going to let Cueto go, that frees a little cash, but not enough to rebuild a pitching staff and bull pen.  Castellini has said he is okay with break even, but not much money left with current player salaries.  Votto's salary jumps 6 million next season and Bruce's goes up as well.  So someone please tell my have you keep Frazier?  I like him as a player and would hate to see him go, but I just don't think the money is available to keep him and rebuild.

They are getting a new TV contact pretty soon, which would be around a 30 million bump. After getting rid of Cueto, Chapy and probably a few others, we will have more than enough money to spend. I find it interesting when trying to balance being a good, rebuilding team and a full rebuild team. Walt is going on 70. I am sure he wants to build a winner before he passes the torch to whoever in the next 10 years or so, so I believe he will try to have a good club while also rebuilding. The issue then becomes your draft spots and talent available at those spots. If you're picking in the 15-25 range, a Mike Trout type player is likely not available (unless you are the Cards and get lucky as heck). 

[fredtoast]

You can't trade all of your proven players for prospects and then expect 100% of your prospects to become stars. Not all prospects become major league stars. That is why you have to keep some good players when you finally get them. We have to keep some of the younger guys like Bruce and Frazier.

If you trade all of your good players then you are always going to be in rebuilding mode. That is why all of the really good teams have a mixture of young players and older vets.

[fredtoast]

And I still don't get all the hate at Jay Bruce. He is top 25 in the NL in RBI and top 30 in OPS.

There are 15 teams in the NL. That means he is going to be one of the top 2 or 3 offensive players on the average NL team, and you guys are acting like he is a scrub that we should trade for a bag of balls.

[*psychdoctor*]

I think Cueto, Chapman, Leake are gone.  Hoover, to much surprise could be the closer of the future.  Frazier would garner the most value but I think he will be a superstar.  Frazier, Voto, Bruce, Hamilton, and a healthy Mes would be a nice core.  They need a LF, and young arms for relief and eventual starters.  Bailey should come back healthy but one never knows. 

[hotweales]

I just think that the Reds have some tough decisions to make. They have put themselves in a tough spot financially with little flexibility. They need help in the starting rotation and in the pen. The team needs some more guys that put the ball in play regularly. Atlanta tore it down this year and are starting to look pretty good. Atlanta's GM recently made the comment that the organization wanted to move away from all the high strikeout players. This sounds like analytics to me, but I have heard that the Reds and Walt in particular are not big on analytics. I hope they consider all trade options in an effort to improve.

[*michaelsean*]

It's looking less and less like we will get a lot for Cueto. I really wish they had traded him at the deadline last year, but not much you can do about it now. I wonder if teams will shy away from him in the free agent market because of injury, and make him more affordable. Probably would still be too much to invest in him long term though.

[*michaelsean*]

(06-23-2015, 12:36 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You can't trade all of your proven players for prospects and then expect 100% of your prospects to become stars.  Not all prospects become major league stars.  That is why you have to keep some good players when you finally get them.  We have to keep some of the younger guys like Bruce and Frazier.

If you trade all of your good players then you are always going to be in rebuilding mode.  That is why all of the really good teams have a mixture of young players and older vets.

The Braves got rid of a lot of people, and they are doing pretty well.  You don't get rid of all your players, but you can't pay giant money to guys in their 30s.

[*michaelsean*]

I was just listening to Lance, and he said the Reds could make Cueto some sort of 1 year offer for a certain amount of money, which will be rejected, but then they get a compensation pick after the end of the first round, so that's not terrible.

[kevin]

I write this on Saturday July 25th, not knowing if any trades have been made yet. I'm sure some are coming. Still, I think we have to ask if this is a rebuilding job to have a team above .500 in 2016, or a a rebuilding job of losing teams for a few years and not expecting a team above .500 until 2020. If this franchise expects wins in 2016, then it can not trade off the entire team, only one or two players.

The biggest salaries to dump would be Votto and Bruce, but do any teams in the play-off hunt feel either could help them to a World Series ????

So Cueto was often mentioned by media before the season started, as was Chapman. I still say Chapman is young and if we intend to be above .500 in 2016 we should not trade the All-Star closer. Chapman is like Rivera or Sutter and way above most closers in baseball history. I would hate to lose Chapman because they paid Votto and Bruce too much.

I could see Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Byrd, Cueto names open for trade and Leake has been mentioned.....I would like to see back in 2016 the names, Frazier, Hamilton and Chapman. The Home Run Derby man, the All-Star closer and the young NL stolen base leader who plays great center field. When in doubt, go with youth. Don't trade the good young players. We can build on these young quality players.

The Reds have broken my heart over the years in trading Frank Robinson, Tony Perez, firing Sparky Anderson. In a week I will see if they have broken my heart again. I hope Chapman, Frazier and Hamilton are still here after the trade deadline, something to build on in 2016 other than fielding the 2015 Louisville Bats and Dayton Dragons in Reds uniforms in 2016.

[fredtoast]

(06-24-2015, 04:55 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I was just listening to Lance, and he said the Reds could make Cueto some sort of 1 year offer for a certain amount of money, which will be rejected, but then they get a compensation pick after the end of the first round, so that's not terrible.

A compensation pick is a lot bigger gamble than a guy who has proven he can play professional baseball.