Nugent will cost us at least 1 game this year

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(08-15-2016, 10:47 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Cool Truck, thanks for bringing me back. I was just trying to remember and i was mistaken.

No problemo!

People were really infatuated with Sharp, just because he was an alternative to Nuge. And because he could punt.

But, as usual if these guys were at all good enough, other teams would be knocking on the door, but they haven't gotten jobs anywhere.

I like Nuge', but I'm excited to see a new, young kicker come in soon, that we can develop and groom. 2010 was the OSU love (Pettrey), who wasn't even that good to begin with, then Clint Stitser, who could make a 40 yardarm but not a PAT.

A new guy, starting out fresh, will be a different story.

[*Go Cards*]

In the last 4 years Nugent has averaged ranking 23rd in league in FG %.

If it were Dalton ranking 23rd people would be calling for his head.

Plus he does not try that many long ones that may be helping his FG % as well.

Think he is replaceable.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-15-2016, 12:12 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So basically Nugent is almost never in the bottom ten in FG% yet you think that we can just plug in anyone and he would be better.

If there are so many unemployed kickers better than Nugent then why haven't all of those teams with kickers worse than Nugent signed them?

Since 2010 there are 35 kicker with at least 80 FG attempts and Nugent ranks 23 among them.  Not great, but far from the bottom of the barrel that many of you claim he is. 

I have no problem with the Bengals bringing in other kickers to compete for the job.  I would also like to have a top ten kicker.  But to claim we should just cut a guy when nhe is consistently better than lots of other kickers in the league is just silly.

So basically, the extent of your argument FOR a guy is "at least he is almost never among the 10 worst people at his job."

That's supposed to be convincing?

The guy is perennially a significantly sub-average kicker. Never claimed he was the worst, but he sure as hell isn't good enough to keep around without ever honestly trying to upgrade.

Heck, the only thing keeping him from being even worse is that the Bengals understand his leg limitations and only have him try a 50+ very rarely, and then generally only in favorable conditions.

[fredtoast]

This is what happens a lot around here. We have a player who is middle of the pack, but far from the worst in the league, ana certain group starts claiming that he has to be cut immediately. They claim that although the player is not close to the worst in the league he can easily be replaced. This is just not how the NFL works.

I am not saying that Nugent is great. I also wish we had a consistent top 10 kicker. But it is absurd to make claims like "It is unacceptable to have Nugent on the roster." or "He will be here forever no bad how he plays." or "No other kicker would miss a 45 yard FG." So I am not so much defending Nugent as I am pointing out that the extremist around here have no idea what they are talking about. Hell, one guy even complained that when Nugent does make a kick it is not always right down the middle.

The average NFL team attempted 31 FGs last year. And when you look at the FG percentages in the middle of the pack just one miss can move a guy down 10 places in the standings. The differences between the guys in the low 20's and the guys just outside the top 10 is negligible.

So while we all wish for an All Pro kicker we also have to remember that Nugent is not the only guy that misses FGs. There were 153 missed FG last year and Nugent only had 5 of them. And last year Nugent was above the league average at both 50+ and 40-50.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-15-2016, 11:45 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: No problemo!

People were really infatuated with Sharp, just because he was an alternative to Nuge. And because he could punt.

But, as usual if these guys were at all good enough, other teams would be knocking on the door, but they haven't gotten jobs anywhere.

I like Nuge', but I'm excited to see a new, young kicker come in soon, that we can develop and groom. 2010 was the OSU love (Pettrey), who wasn't even that good to begin with, then Clint Stitser, who could make a 40 yardarm but not a PAT.

A new guy, starting out fresh, will be a different story.

Sounds like the way we will be going. The right way.

Don't need to cut ties with Nuge for who is out there right now.

[XenoMorph]

(08-13-2016, 01:18 PM)zygrot24 Wrote: I really don't understand how mike still has a job with us. It has been proven time and time again that you can't count on him. Case in point last night. Now before anyone says " but it's preseason, it doesn't really matter", exactly. Nugent comes in to the first preseason game, absolutely no pressure. and Of course he blows it, and we lose the (albeit preseason) game by a point.

What has to happen for marvin and company to finally move on.

he will win some games for us too...  1 missed kick in the preseason doesn't worry me... especially the first attempt of the year.

as long as he hits the ones that really matter... (end of the game to win or tie)  ill forgive the occansional miss.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-16-2016, 08:58 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This is what happens a lot around here.  We have a player who is middle of the pack, but far from the worst in the league, ana certain group starts claiming that he has to be cut immediately.  They claim that although the player is not close to the worst in the league he can easily be replaced.  This is just not how the NFL works.

I am not saying that Nugent is great.  I also wish we had a consistent top 10 kicker.  But it is absurd to make claims like "It is unacceptable to have Nugent on the roster." or "He will be here forever no bad how he plays." or "No other kicker would miss a 45 yard FG."   So I am not so much defending Nugent as I am pointing out that the extremist around here have no idea what they are talking about.  Hell, one guy even complained that when Nugent does make a kick it is not always right down the middle.

The average NFL team attempted 31 FGs last year. And when you look at the FG percentages in the middle of the pack just one miss can move a guy down 10 places in the standings.  The differences between the guys in the low 20's and the guys just outside the top 10 is negligible.

So while we all wish for an All Pro kicker we also have to remember that Nugent is not the only guy that misses FGs.  There were 153 missed FG last year and Nugent only had 5 of them.  And last year Nugent was above the league average at both 50+ and 40-50.

Mid to low 20s out of 32 is not "middle of the road".....it's the bottom percentile.  Math are hard.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(08-17-2016, 06:21 AM)Wyche Wrote: Mid to low 20s out of 32 is not "middle of the road".....it's the bottom percentile.  Math are hard.

In Fred's defense, he's right: there aren't 32 kickers every year, about 40-45 actually go out there, so him saying that 20-23 is middle of the pack, is correct.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-17-2016, 08:16 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: In Fred's defense, he's right: there aren't 32 kickers every year, about 40-45 actually go out there, so him saying that 20-23 is middle of the pack, is correct.

Yes.....but surely a certain amount of attempts are considered when ranking them. I'm not on a witch hunt....but we missed the boat on Brown, and we need to be trying other options out at the very least to see if we can find a better one.

[fredtoast]

(08-17-2016, 06:21 AM)Wyche Wrote: Mid to low 20s out of 32 is not "middle of the road".....it's the bottom percentile.  Math are hard.

Math are hard for you.

How big is a "percentile"?

Here is the deal.  Nugent does not always rank in the mid to low 20's.  And with the difference between FG% being do small and the average NFL team attempting 31 FGs the difference between #20 and #10 is about one miss.  Nugent is solidly in the middle of the pack.

[BleedNOrange]

(08-17-2016, 09:17 AM)Wyche Wrote: Yes.....but surely a certain amount of attempts are considered when ranking them.  I'm not on a witch hunt....but we missed the boat on Brown, and we need to be trying other options out at the very least to see if we can find a better one.

You are correct according to Elias Sports Bureau.  They define kickers as "Qualified" as, "To qualify, a player must have at least 1 attempt per team's games played".  Using this, here is how Nuge ranks the past 5 years with the Bengals.

Ranking/Total # of players who Qualified.

2015 - 23rd/32
2014 - 27th/31
2013 - 23rd/32
2012 - 20th/31
2011 - 8th/31

He has been a career below-average kicker.

A lot of the issue people have around here is that it seems that Nuge's job is a lock every year.  It doesn't seem like the Bengals bring in serious competition.

[Sled21]

(08-17-2016, 10:10 AM)BleedNOrange Wrote: You are correct according to Elias Sports Bureau.  They define kickers as "Qualified" as, "To qualify, a player must have at least 1 attempt per team's games played".  Using this, here is how Nuge ranks the past 5 years with the Bengals.

Ranking/Total # of players who Qualified.

2015 - 23rd/32
2014 - 27th/31
2013 - 23rd/32
2012 - 20th/31
2011 - 8th/31

He has been a career below-average kicker.

A lot of the issue people have around here is that it seems that Nuge's job is a lock every year.  It doesn't seem like the Bengals bring in serious competition.

All those figures can be tossed right out the window, because they are apples and oranges comparisons. To accurately rank Nugent among his peers, you have to compare him almost strictly to AFCN kickers. Comparing his average to kickers for teams that play in warm weather or especially in a dome, let alone in Denver, is ludicrous. If Nugent kicked in 80 degree weather or inside all the time like some of these other kickers, his percentage would skyrocket. Kicking in the AFCN off of frozen or wet turf, in cold weather and in swirling winds is a brutal profession.

[OrlandoBengal]

(08-17-2016, 10:49 AM)Sled21 Wrote: All those figures can be tossed right out the window, because they are apples and oranges comparisons. To accurately rank Nugent among his peers, you have to compare him almost strictly to AFCN kickers. Comparing his average to kickers for teams that play in warm weather or especially in a dome, let alone in Denver, is ludicrous. If Nugent kicked in 80 degree weather or inside all the time like some of these other kickers, his percentage would skyrocket. Kicking in the AFCN off of frozen or wet turf, in cold weather and in swirling winds is a brutal profession.

How often is the field at PBS frozen?  Yes, it happens, but it is rare.  A kicker in a dome or warm weather still plays half his games on the road... Miami plays at Buffalo, New England, and New York every year.  You compare him to other NFL kickers, because that is what he is.

[BleedNOrange]

(08-17-2016, 10:49 AM)Sled21 Wrote: All those figures can be tossed right out the window, because they are apples and oranges comparisons. To accurately rank Nugent among his peers, you have to compare him almost strictly to AFCN kickers. Comparing his average to kickers for teams that play in warm weather or especially in a dome, let alone in Denver, is ludicrous. If Nugent kicked in 80 degree weather or inside all the time like some of these other kickers, his percentage would skyrocket. Kicking in the AFCN off of frozen or wet turf, in cold weather and in swirling winds is a brutal profession.

Ok, here you go.  FG% ranks.

Year    BAL  PIT   CLE  CIN
2015   21   7       11    23
2014   16   5       30    27
2013   T6   5       25    23
2012   T6   7       T2    20
2011   28   31     T17  8

So FG% in the AFCN, Nuge has finished 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, & 1st.  Yay.

[*PhilHos*]

One thing you can say about Nugent: he's forced Marvin to go for it more when between the other team's 30-40 yard lines.

[Sled21]

(08-17-2016, 11:21 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: How often is the field at PBS frozen?  Yes, it happens, but it is rare.  A kicker in a dome or warm weather still plays half his games on the road... Miami plays at Buffalo, New England, and New York every year.  You compare him to other NFL kickers, because that is what he is.

A dome team kicker gets at least 8 games minimum inside. A warm weather team gets at least 8 games in warm weather. An AFCN kicker gets no home games inside and is guaranteed to have 3 more games played in open AFCN stadiums. That's 11 of 16 games. No way does a dome team or a team like San Diego or Denver not have a kicking advantage when it comes to ranking kickers.

[Sled21]

(08-17-2016, 11:25 AM)BleedNOrange Wrote: Ok, here you go.  FG% ranks.

Year    BAL  PIT   CLE  CIN
2015   21   7       11    23
2014   16   5       30    27
2013   T6   5       25    23
2012   T6   7       T2    20
2011   28   31      T17  8

So FG% in the AFCN, Nuge has finished 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, & 1st.  Yay.

That may be, but it does not negate the point.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-17-2016, 09:26 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Math are hard for you.

How big is a "percentile"?

Here is the deal.  Nugent does not always rank in the mid to low 20's.  And with the difference between FG% being do small and the average NFL team attempting 31 FGs the difference between #20 and #10 is about one miss.  Nugent is solidly in the middle of the pack.

(08-17-2016, 10:10 AM)BleedNOrange Wrote: You are correct according to Elias Sports Bureau.  They define kickers as "Qualified" as, "To qualify, a player must have at least 1 attempt per team's games played".  Using this, here is how Nuge ranks the past 5 years with the Bengals.

Ranking/Total # of players who Qualified.

2015 - 23rd/32
2014 - 27th/31
2013 - 23rd/32
2012 - 20th/31
2011 - 8th/31

He has been a career below-average kicker.

A lot of the issue people have around here is that it seems that Nuge's job is a lock every year.  It doesn't seem like the Bengals bring in serious competition.

*ahem* oh freddy.....

.....and sorry for the grammatical error, but you got the gist.


As to the bolded, yes BleedNOrange, that is the issue at hand.

[XenoMorph]

(08-17-2016, 11:21 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: How often is the field at PBS frozen?  Yes, it happens, but it is rare.  A kicker in a dome or warm weather still plays half his games on the road... Miami plays at Buffalo, New England, and New York every year.  You compare him to other NFL kickers, because that is what he is.

I do believe the actual field itself is heated.

[Sled21]

(08-17-2016, 03:43 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: I do believe the actual field itself is heated.

But the balls aren't.....