Dre Kirkpatrick stock is rising

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-12-2016, 04:50 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This guy is turning into a shut down corner and has thrived this year. Ive been as hard on him as anyone, but man has he played well this year.

We need to give him an extension in the off season. He is improving every year and is about to peak.

He has definately shut me up this year. I was a hater on the guy and he has made me eat crow.

All for bringing Kirkpatrick back.

[fredtoast]

(12-15-2016, 04:31 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Like I said before the only stats you can say he was average in is stop rate and yards per play.  Both of them drop to below average when penalties are factored in.When you want to factor penalties in, he was actually below average in every category.

No they do not.  Every CB commits penalties.  And as I have already shown the best CBs usually end up drawing the most penalties.  So there is no proof that when you penalize all cbs for all penalties that he will drop at all in the ratings.


You also keep claiming that 32 is "average".  What makes you say that?  Do you think every CB below #32 is "garbage"?

[wolverine515151]

(12-15-2016, 05:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No they do not.  Every CB commits penalties.  And as I have already shown the best CBs usually end up drawing the most penalties.  So there is no proof that when you penalize all cbs for all penalties that he will drop at all in the ratings.


You also keep claiming that 32 is "average".  What makes you say that?  Do you think every CB below #32 is "garbage"?

Your a joke to not include penalties into stop rate and yards per play.  I have just clearly illustrated why they should be included.

I actually did look up corners average penalties over the last 3 years. Two corners who are known for getting a lot of penalties, Talib averaged 7 penalties per year, Sherman averaged 7 penalties per year. A corner not know for penalties Hall averaged 2 penalties per year.

I can now say definitively that the average starting corner got something in between these individuals. Using the mean value theorem I can confidently estimate that the average corner got 4 penalties per year.

That means Kirkpatrick got 11 penalties above the average. This means when factoring penalties into the equation for ALL OF THE TOP 100 CORNERS he most definitely was below average in both stop rate and yards per play.

[BengalsRocker]

(12-15-2016, 04:39 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: He has definately shut me up this year. I was a hater on the guy and he has made me eat crow.

All for bringing Kirkpatrick back.

I too was someone who was not a fan.

I made a thread last year and most like myself did not feel like Dre was playing up to his expectations.

http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Thoughts-on-Dre-K

However I did not fully trash him because he showed some positive signs.

Just the fact that the consensus on the boards these days is to keep him should be telling.

If some poster wants to read several pages of debate or rehash more "cherry picked" stats by Fred...  feel free to peruse.

Been there.  Done that.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-15-2016, 07:12 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: I too was someone who was not a fan.

I made a thread last year and most like myself did not feel like Dre was playing up to his expectations.

http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Thoughts-on-Dre-K

However I did not fully trash him because he showed some positive signs.

Just the fact that the consensus on the boards these days is to keep him should be telling.

If some poster wants to read several pages of debate or rehash more "cherry picked" stats by Fred...  feel free to peruse.

Been there.  Done that.

Good stuff, yeah he had a bad year last year. He was our weak link in the Secondary.

This year it has been Adam. Dre is still young so i would bring him back for the right price.

I remember that thread, i just don't want to go through 12 pages or so to find what i said back then.

I am sure i agreed with you and the others who thought he was the weak link.

Happy he has turned it around.

[*jason*]

(12-16-2016, 01:14 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Good stuff, yeah he had a bad year last year. He was our weak link in the Secondary.

This year it has been Adam. Dre is still young so i would bring him back for the right price.

I remember that thread, i just don't want to go through 12 pages or so to find what i said back then.

I am sure i agreed with you and the others who thought he was the weak link.

Happy he has turned it around.

You probably did. Fred was on an island in supporting Dre. He's been pretty good about not rubbing it in this year.[emoji1]

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-16-2016, 03:09 PM)jason Wrote: You probably did. Fred was on an island in supporting Dre. He's been pretty good about not rubbing it in this year.[emoji1]

Yeah, at the time people were right to call out Dre. He was the guy Offenses were targeting more than any other.

This year he has improved immensely and has even got a couple picks. Also has improved on the penalties.

[bambino5130]

(12-12-2016, 08:27 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Know myself and Shady were against picking Kirkpatrick and wanting Jenkins instead.

That being said, Dre and Zeitler are both must signs in off season in my book.

I totally agree. You can take a big long look at Fisher and Ogbuehi too see good to average Olineman are not exactly that easy find in the draft and take time to develop. If you thought the Oline looked bad this year, just think what it would look like if Zeitler isnt signed? I know Kevin has had probably his worst year, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt in saying some of those issues might be because there is no consistency next to him at RT. I do think Zietler is a top 5 RG in this league and should be paid like one. Think of the alternative if he is not signed.......... Needing a RT, then a new RG, and really a new Center because Bodine is absolute garbage.......... that situation isnt really a situation you can put a band aid over if all three of those spots are weak to below average. Pittsburgh resigned their RG in DeCastro, we should do the same.

On the other hand resigning Dre is important but I dont think AS import as Zeitler. I think a situation will occur like Joseph and Hall happend awhile back, but this time with Kirkpatrick and Dennard. While they can only keep one of them, at this point I would choose Dre over Dennard.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-16-2016, 03:58 PM)bambino5130 Wrote: I totally agree. You can take a big long look at Fisher and Ogbuehi too see good to average Olineman are not exactly that easy find in the draft and take time to develop. If you thought the Oline looked bad this year, just think what it would look like if Zeitler isnt signed? I know Kevin has had probably his worst year, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt in saying some of those issues might be because there is no consistency next to him at RT. I do think Zietler is a top 5 RG in this league and should be paid like one. Think of the alternative if he is not signed.......... Needing a RT, then a new RG, and really a new Center because Bodine is absolute garbage.......... that situation isnt really a situation you can put a band aid over if all three of those spots are weak to below average. Pittsburgh resigned their RG in DeCastro, we should do the same.

On the other hand resigning Dre is important but I dont think AS import as Zeitler. I think a situation will occur like Joseph and Hall happend awhile back, but this time with Kirkpatrick and Dennard. While they can only keep one of them, at this point I would choose Dre over Dennard.

We still have Westerman if Zeit leaves who i think will be very good in the NFL.

I am not against re-signing Zeit of course but Jim O alluded to it not being a sure thing.

Westerman could be very good and you are right it has been Zeitler's worst season. He has been bad at times
all on his own, not just cause of the guys on either side of him. Granted they sure as hell didn't help the guy out.

[bambino5130]

(12-16-2016, 04:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: We still have Westerman if Zeit leaves who i think will be very good in the NFL.

I am not against re-signing Zeit of course but Jim O alluded to it not being a sure thing.

Westerman could be very good and you are right it has been Zeitler's worst season. He has been bad at times
all on his own, not just cause of the guys on either side of him. Granted they sure as hell didn't help the guy out.

Excellent Point, I totally forgot about him. I would have thought being out of the playoff picture pretty much, would allow them to get some of the younger guys some playing time. Maybe they will actually let Westerman dress for a game this season, but that might be wishful thinking. He is a complete unknown, and my expectations with Bengal late round drafted olinemen arent exactly very high. I mean with Whit having what one year left, maybe two at LT, a serviceable LG with Boling, I am just really nervous about having to essentially replace 3-4 Oline spots in the next year or two when they cant even find a RT solution. I would love to have some kind of idea on future plans for the Oline, but really have none. I would have figured at least one out of Fisher or Ced panning out, but those guys arent exactly flashing talent of anything right now

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-16-2016, 05:02 PM)bambino5130 Wrote: Excellent Point, I totally forgot about him. I would have thought being out of the playoff picture pretty much, would allow them to get some of the younger guys some playing time. Maybe they will actually let Westerman dress for a game this season, but that might be wishful thinking. He is a complete unknown, and my expectations with Bengal late round drafted olinemen arent exactly very high. I mean with Whit having what one year left, maybe two at LT, a serviceable LG with Boling, I am just really nervous about having to essentially replace 3-4 Oline spots in the next year or two when they cant even find a RT solution. I would love to have some kind of idea on future plans for the Oline, but really have none. I would have figured at least one out of Fisher or Ced panning out, but those guys arent exactly flashing talent of anything right now

First thing i would do is let PA go and get a good O-line coach.

Get a veteran FA to play RT for us next year and draft a Center in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Of course bring back Whit for another year or even a couple. Still playing great.

Zeit might command too much money so coach up Westerman to play RG.

With a good O-line coach Fisher and even Og might still have something you never know.

[Socal Bengals fan]

Wtf. Westerman might be good? Based on what? What have you guys seen that I haven't. Do you really want to do this all over again like what we did with Andre Smith. Because oggieboggie worked out so well. Pay the man. Do not risk it again. He has Bodine n #70 to left n right of him. Poor guy. Pay Zeitler

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-16-2016, 06:13 PM)Socal Bengals fan Wrote: Wtf.  Westerman might be good?  Based on what? What have you guys seen that I haven't.  Do you really want to do this all over again like what we did with Andre Smith.  Because oggieboggie worked out so well.  Pay the man.  Do not risk it again.  He has Bodine n #70 to left n right of him.  Poor guy.  Pay Zeitler

Just going off of what Jim O said. He said we most likely are not going to re-sign Zeitler.

Would i like to re-sign him? Of course. But i do like Westerman if we don't, he is a versatile strong Guard.

Zeitler also has not played like himself this year even if he had Og and Bodine around him.

How much are you willing to pay Zeitler Socal? As much as DeCastro? Cause that is pry what it will take.

Get a decent O-line coach and i guarantee things will be much better. Get a Free Agent RT and draft a Center early.

[Derrick]

(12-15-2016, 04:31 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: First prove that teams don't use pff individual stats before you make that claim.You have proven nothing.

The point I made was that they pulled him off of brown for his bad play on that drive. I never said anything about him being pulled for the td. Now your just making things up.

If he was giving blanket coverage they would not have targeted second most in the league. They would have gone to hall's guy or picked on one of the linebackers more often. Jones is not the only option to throw the ball to.

If a QB goes through his progression he has slot wideouts and tight ends to throw the ball to. If he saw Kirkpatrick and Jones with blanket coverage he would simply go to the tight ends, slot wideouts or throw the ball away.  

High amount of targets , which might be higher because of pacman jones, still shouldn't be second in the league. Jones probably increased his targets by about 20 . That means if he was giving blanket coverage it would be 70 not 112 .  

Yards per play should be much worse if you include penalties into that. He gave up 118 yards in penalties . Probably more like 300 yards if you count hidden yards in those penalties because when a corner gets a penalty it's an automatic first down. 

This year in new england we had them 3rd and 15 . Kirkpatrick gets holding call 7 yards past line of scrimmage. Automatic first. They drive 70 yards for the score. That's 70 hidden yards.  So yes penalties do factor into yards per play.

If these yards are included then his yards per play jumps to probably 11 yards per play and drops him into the bottom of the league in yards per play.

Stop rate also needs to factor in penalties.  If a guy gets beat he grabs his guy. That means Kirkpatrick should have 15 more times he was beaten added to his stop rate, which would plummet his stop rate to below average.

I'll use a extreme example to illustrate to a novice like yourself. If a guy stop his guy 2 out of 2 times then he has a 100% stop rate according to football outsiders. What if he gets beaten 10 times during the same game, grabs him, and gets 10 penalties. Do you actually think his stop rate should be 100%? If you do stop watching nfl football.  His stop rate is actually 2/12 which is 17%.

So you think corners shouldn't give a crap about run defense. Go tell that to the bengals coaches.

How about his zero interceptions and zero forced fumbles. You think good corners get zero interceptions and zero forced fumbles. Your a joke

Stop rate and success rate have to be very similar stats. That's why  I only used stop rate.  If you give up 2 catches out of 10 you stopped him 80% of the time.

Like I said before the only stats you can say he was average in is stop rate and yards per play.  Both of them drop to below average when penalties are factored in. This means he was actually below average in every category.

Geeze, Fred, Please get your own message board and argue with yourself on there. Thanks.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-14-2016, 10:32 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: PFF is a service used by 19 out of the 32 NFL teams and analyzes every player on every play of every game to aid in game research. So you think 60% of the nfl teams are a joke. You would be the one who is a joke

He ranked 104 out of 112 corners they ranked on PFF.

Most-targeted NFL cornerbacks in coverage last season: 1. Marcus Peters, KC (137) 2. Dre Kirkpatrick, CIN (112) 3. Antwon Blake, PIT (110)

The fact that he was targeted second most last season proves he was letting his guy get open.  
             
2015 CIN CB 75 33 14 7.8 28 44% 34 15% 59.0 17.0 29%

Football outsiders had him ranked 34 in pass coverage, which is below average.

2015 CIN CB 11 3 0 14.0 100 27% 78 27%

Football outsiders had him ranked 100 in run defense which is WAY below average.

You combine his way below ranking on the PFF last season, his below average ranking pass coverage on football outsiders, his way below average run defense on football outsiders,  his ZERO INTERCEPTIONS, as well as one of the league leaders in MISSED TACKLES proves that last season Kirkpatrick was bad by anyone's standard.

These are great stats and show that Dre was not necessarily worthy of #1 CB money, but although he got burned a lot, he learned a lot and has developed to a very good cover corner.  This, despite less of a pass rush than just about any team in the league.  He is still reluctant to stick his head in on some run support plays, but he has covered very well this year and I think they have to extend him.  Dennard is the future in the nickel and WJIII is likely the future on the outside because of his length and speed.

Not to hijack the thread, but I think Josh Shaw should be the starting safety next to Iloka.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-14-2016, 11:13 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Stock is rising indicates a start point and finish point. How would anyone know if hes rising this year if we didn't know how he played last year. Whats he rising from? His dogs asshole? Hes rising compared to what he did last season.

His dogs asshole?  This had me spit coffee all over the keyboard.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-16-2016, 06:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Just going off of what Jim O said. He said we most likely are not going to re-sign Zeitler.

Would i like to re-sign him? Of course. But i do like Westerman if we don't, he is a versatile strong Guard.

Zeitler also has not played like himself this year even if he had Og and Bodine around him.

How much are you willing to pay Zeitler Socal? As much as DeCastro? Cause that is pry what it will take.

Get a decent O-line coach and i guarantee things will be much better. Get a Free Agent RT and draft a Center early.

I know this is going to sound like it is coming from Left Field...or under the grass out in Left Field, but here goes:  Zeitler didn't want to be the "fat lineman" and transformed his body to be more lean, gain mobility, and be generally better conditioned.  Ok, so did that help him at RT?  No.  He has not played as well as before his "transformation" and I don't blame it entirely on his RT as he played some of last year with him as well.  

My question is, can he play RT?  I'm guessing no, as his arms aren't long enough at just under 33".  

The Bengals need to calculate the potential pay scale they are willing to go to for Zeitler and let him explore the market.  They have a lot of extra picks this year, and could package a few to move up and get another OG to compete with Westerman for the replacement at OG.  

I think re-signing Whit is MUCH more vital to this team's success than signing Zeiter.  Kirkpatrick is a no-brainer to re-sign.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-16-2016, 06:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Just going off of what Jim O said. He said we most likely are not going to re-sign Zeitler.

Would i like to re-sign him? Of course. But i do like Westerman if we don't, he is a versatile strong Guard.

Zeitler also has not played like himself this year even if he had Og and Bodine around him.

How much are you willing to pay Zeitler Socal? As much as DeCastro? Cause that is pry what it will take.

Get a decent O-line coach and i guarantee things will be much better. Get a Free Agent RT and draft a Center early.

I don't think I would re-sign Zeitler.  I like Westerman, and if they draft another guard to compete with him, one of the two will earn the job.  I wouldn't be opposed to flipping Boling, who has been a pleasant surprise, and having Whit line up at LG as Ced O transitions back to the left side.  

As much improvement as we saw from Whit in his early career, I am not willing to give up on Ced yet and I think a full camp (which he has yet to have one) will be huge for him...but he MUST come back bigger and stronger.  Looks like a TE out there...

Here is Westerman's combine review:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/christian-westerman?id=2555131

[Goalpost]

Zeitler is a durable player. That is what you lose if you don't re-sign him. I'd like to keep him but not at the expected 50 mil his agent is going to ask for. He is probably a shop around type free agent. Maybe leave an offer on the table slightly better than what we pay Boling.

[Derrick]

(12-16-2016, 03:15 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, at the time people were right to call out Dre. He was the guy Offenses were targeting more than any other.

This year he has improved immensely and has even got a couple picks. Also has improved on the penalties.

Does DreK actually have two picks this season??? I suspect the Stoolers will target him until he proves he can do his job. Sadly, I don't have confidence that he will play within himself resulting in missed tackles, penalties, etc.  I hope for better, but am not at all confident.