Final Regular Season QB rankings

[*bfine32*]

(01-08-2017, 01:53 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yet you think someone capable such a season in 2 of the last 3 years (Cam ranked 26th in 2014) is somehow clearly better than Andy? I tell you one thing, we never have to worry that Dalton will have a season that ugly. If Dalton has a game where he completed 53% or has a 75 rating some on here already have pitchforks out. Imagine an entire season of that.

Fwiw, the rushing difference wasn't even that big this year. Cam rushed for 350 and 5 TDs. Andy rushed for 184 and 4 TDs.

Actually post 92 explains why I think Cam is better than Andy (you can save the "clearly" for Fred). 

Of course there are folks here that slam Andy; as there are folks that exalt him. I've always been of the mind that he is an average NFL QB with the added bonus of being a great guy. 

[Shake n Blake]

(01-08-2017, 02:10 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Actually post 92 explains why I think Cam is better than Andy (you can save the "clearly" for Fred). 

Of course there are folks here that slam Andy; as there are folks that exalt him. I've always been of the mind that he is an average NFL QB with the added bonus of being a great guy. 

Obviously neither of us is going to change any minds, but I don't think an average QB has the kind season Andy just had with the offense literally falling apart around him. League's worst rated RT and C. One of the league's worst run games. 20 games worth of missed time between 3 of his top targets. New rookie OC.

Through all that, Andy has 4200 yards, only 8 picks, 22 total TDs and a very respectable passer rating. Many QBs would've fallen apart and justifiably so. Not our guy though, and that's even more reason why I believe he's somewhere above "average".

Btw...I used the word "clearly" because you're acting like it's totally silly that anyone would think Andy > Cam. Therefore I assume you think Cam is "clearly" or significantly better. If you think Cam is only marginally better, why take such a huge issue with those who think Andy is marginally better?

[Brownshoe]

(01-07-2017, 08:30 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Of course I could dispute Dalton being a better QB that Andy Dalton; however, it would be similar to disputing with a child the reality of Santa Claus.

Since they have came into the league Cam has more total yards, more TDs, fewer turnovers, has won a NFL MVP, has been to the Superbowl. won Rookie of the Year, and has been named first team All-Pro. While Andy has been one of the worst big-game performers in the league

I could point to that and more, but it would just lead to the "Other QBs only seem better than Andy, because they play bad defenses, have great support, experts are biased, have better coaches, ect......"

Cam actually has just as many turnovers as Dalton. He has 3 less INTs, but 3 more fumbles. Why do you judge Dalton on his passer rating, but when you want to talk about Cam vs Dalton you have to have what some people call "volume numbers". It seems like you are just picking and choosing which stats you want to judge a QB with on the situation. Oh, Dalton has a lot of TDs and yards? Well his passer rating is average. Oh, Dalton has a really high passer rating? Well his TD and yards isn't very good. It just makes you seem very bias against Dalton. Especially when you have to say personal insults.

I could say that Dalton has much better accuracy (58.4% completion vs 62.7% completion), more 40+ yard passes (49 vs 68) which indicate better deep balls, better passer rating, a better winning %, more passing TDs, more passing yards, a lower INT % to passes, quicker release time, and is able to read defenses better. I don't have to bring up popularity contests like league MVP (when half of his year he didn't even play well), RotY, and first team All-Pro either.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-07-2017, 08:30 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Of course I could dispute Dalton being a better QB that Andy Dalton; however, it would be similar to disputing with a child the reality of Santa Claus.

Since they have came into the league Cam has more total yards, more TDs, fewer turnovers, has won a NFL MVP, has been to the Superbowl. won Rookie of the Year, and has been named first team All-Pro. While Andy has been one of the worst big-game performers in the league

I could point to that and more, but it would just lead to the "Other QBs only seem better than Andy, because they play bad defenses, have great support, experts are biased, have better coaches, ect......"

So, what happened to Cam this year?  His division foes improved a bit, but he lost a few key pieces on the defense and suddenly he's average if you go by just the numbers.  

The bottom line is:  every QB, even Sir Tom Brady, needs a supporting cast.  Some QBs have had really good supporting casts or defenses that get them great field position, turnovers, etc.  Some QBs have had average supporting casts.  I just think Dalton deserves a little credit for what he did this year with his third OC, a porous offensive line, no running game, and (at least early in the season) a crappy defense (though they really turned it on down the stretch).  

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-08-2017, 01:34 AM)bfine32 Wrote: If you want to use this year's passer rating as the determination then I have no problem saying Andy is the 15th best QB in the NFL. Even though this year one or two I'd put Andy ahead of had a better passer rating and a couple had worse. That's about where I put him. Mid-Tier, serviceable starter. Glad we could reach common ground. 

I would be curious to know which QBs you think could have duplicated Andy's season on this team.  Provide examples of when there team was decimated and they didn't take a huge impact on their numbers.  It wasn't long ago that Brady had oline problems, lost Gronk, and turned in a very middle-of-the-road performance.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-07-2017, 04:58 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I don't understand why Bfine likes Cam Newton so much.

The guy is a diva on top of all the facts presented here about his play.

He was blessed with a Lebron James type body and underachieves.

And pouts like a whiny St. Louis Cardinal (according to Brandon Phillips) when things don't go his way.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-08-2017, 11:03 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: And pouts like a whiny St. Louis Cardinal (according to Brandon Phillips) when things don't go his way.  

Yeah, the exact type of athletes i don't like.

Complete opposite of a class act like Andy Dalton who is mentally strong.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-07-2017, 08:34 PM)bfine32 Wrote: If thinking he has been a better NFL QB to date than Andy Dalton; as does 99.9% of the population, then I am guilty of liking him so much. 

Cam wasn't better this year, Dalton was much better and they were neck and neck last year when Cam won the MVP.

Dalton just got hurt.

99.9% of the population huh? You sure pulled that out of your ass.

[*bfine32*]

(01-08-2017, 11:03 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: And pouts like a whiny St. Louis Cardinal (according to Brandon Phillips) when things don't go his way.  

I never said who had the better attitude.

[Rhinocero23]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-this-season/

Pro Football focus rankings.

Bfine seems to be much more on target, rational and objective than many on here.

Man you take a lot of the lumps for having a sound argument. lol.

For the record I would agree Andy is a mid-tier NFL QB. If all the stars align he can have a top 10 year but is total body of work will be middle of the pack and nothing extraordinary.

[Shake n Blake]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Dalton ranked 13th (out of 34 qualifiers) in Pro Football Outsiders DVOA which is a system that rates QB value.

He finished just behind Andrew Luck and ahead of the following QBs that bfine and others would take over Andy:

Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Phillip Rivers
Cam Newton
Alex Smith
Carson Palmer
Eli Manning
Joe Flacco
Ryan Tannehill

Now if Dalton is "mid-tier" (again...A very broad and vague term), what are these guys that graded below him?

Of course, only PFF and bfine agree with OP are reasonable, so I'm sure we can dismiss PFO.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-12-2017, 01:13 PM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-this-season/

Pro Football focus rankings.

Bfine seems to be much more on target, rational and objective than many on here.

Man you take a lot of the lumps for having a sound argument. lol.

For the record I would agree Andy is a mid-tier (average) NFL QB. If all the stars align he can have a top 10 year but is total body of work will be middle of the pack and nothing extraordinary.

Interesting that Dalton had a higher PFF grade than 4 guys that were listed ahead of him, and they mention o-line struggles as an excuse for Rivers, Luck and Bradford, yet curiously make no mention that Dalton dealt with one of the worst o-lines in football.

I just don't see how an average QB would post his "normal" average numbers while facing all the adversity Dalton faced this season. An average QB would post bad numbers in such a situation. A good QB would post average numbers.
_________________

Serious question for you: if Dalton will go down as a "mid tier" QB, how is his career passer rating ranked 10th among active players?

[Rhinocero23]

(01-12-2017, 02:10 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Interesting that Dalton had a higher PFF grade than 4 guys that were listed ahead of him, and they mention o-line struggles as an excuse for Rivers, Luck and Bradford, yet curiously make no mention that Dalton dealt with one of the worst o-lines in football.

That is a fair question. Here is an excerpt from an SI article - 

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/12/20/nfl-quarterback-situation-supporting-cast-rankings

"The offensive line, which is usually one of the best in the league, has taken a huge step back, and that’s trickled down to everything else. The defense is getting older and is no longer capable of holding opponents down. And losing A.J. Green to injury in the middle of the season has been a big problem.

QBR ranking: 17. MV-QB ranking: 17. Without a good supporting cast, Andy Dalton is average. Which is what most of us thought."


There is mention of the O-line regressing and that having a negative effect on everything else. The point is many (outside of a few loyalist here) view Dalton as a product of his surroundings. 


He will do well when everything is in place...the problem is that almost never happens in the NFL over the course of  a full season. He does not elevate the players around him...in effect he played to the level of his supporting cast. In other words he is capable of accomplishing what any average professional at is level could do. 


Andy Dalton is like betting on the Horse in the derby that if luck would have it and all the best horses scratched or broke their legs he could beat the other half of the field. That is not a good bet. 


He lacks the skill set, leadership and will to have a bad situation and make it better. Several of you have said had a great year (for Andy Dalton) this year. How many wins did that amount to? It was a terrible year for the team. Andy needed to be a gunslinger and try to hit big plays and take risks. Instead he checked down and protected the ball, had some pretty stats that amounted to a joke of a season. 


We disagree on this apparently. I would rather have a QB thow 20+ ints trying to win in a tough year and deal with the fallout than have a guy have a good year and result in the same amount of wins. Andy did not press the team to be better...he relied on them to win the game and he just not loose it. A winner, or a leader plays with reckless abandonment in the face of a dire situation. Andy plays scared...weak leadership and it shows.


Pete Rose said what made him great was "I went to the plat to get a hit, not trying to NOT MAKE AN OUT.


Andy's mentality is the latter...average. 

[Shake n Blake]

^ Conjecture and narrative influenced opinions. You say Dalton constantly checked down and didn't drive the ball down the field, yet he ranked 12th in YPA, only 1 spot behind Ben (and 0.03 less on average). Ben is known for airing it out, yet you want to paint Dalton as some check down artist. I didn't see it, and the numbers disprove it.

What I saw was a good QB who did push the ball downfield as much as possible with an abysmal o-line and an injury ravaged receiving core that - for a big chunk of the season - featured a cheap FA pickup and a rookie. The top 2 targets were never on the field together. You guys want to use this season as proof of the narrative that Dalton is only as good as his supporting cast, but here's the problem with that: Dalton's supporting cast wasn't even average this year. It was flat out awful. So why wasn't Dalton awful?

I'll ask one more time. If Dalton is mid-tier (code for average), then how is he ranked 10th in career passer rating? I'd also be interested to see a full list of QBs you guys consider top tier, mid tier and bottom tier.

[Brownshoe]

(01-12-2017, 02:30 PM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: That is a fair question. Here is an excerpt from an SI article - 

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/12/20/nfl-quarterback-situation-supporting-cast-rankings

"The offensive line, which is usually one of the best in the league, has taken a huge step back, and that’s trickled down to everything else. The defense is getting older and is no longer capable of holding opponents down. And losing A.J. Green to injury in the middle of the season has been a big problem.

QBR ranking: 17. MV-QB ranking: 17. Without a good supporting cast, Andy Dalton is average. Which is what most of us thought."


There is mention of the O-line regressing and that having a negative effect on everything else. The point is many (outside of a few loyalist here) view Dalton as a product of his surroundings. 


He will do well when everything is in place...the problem is that almost never happens in the NFL over the course of  a full season. He does not elevate the players around him...in effect he played to the level of his supporting cast. In other words he is capable of accomplishing what any average professional at is level could do. 


Andy Dalton is like betting on the Horse in the derby that if luck would have it and all the best horses scratched or broke their legs he could beat the other half of the field. That is not a good bet. 


He lacks the skill set, leadership and will to have a bad situation and make it better. Several of you have said had a great year (for Andy Dalton) this year. How many wins did that amount to? It was a terrible year for the team. Andy needed to be a gunslinger and try to hit big plays and take risks. Instead he checked down and protected the ball, had some pretty stats that amounted to a joke of a season. 


We disagree on this apparently. I would rather have a QB thow 20+ ints trying to win in a tough year and deal with the fallout than have a guy have a good year and result in the same amount of wins. Andy did not press the team to be better...he relied on them to win the game and he just not loose it. A winner, or a leader plays with reckless abandonment in the face of a dire situation. Andy plays scared...weak leadership and it shows.


Pete Rose said what made him great was "I went to the plat to get a hit, not trying to NOT MAKE AN OUT.


Andy's mentality is the latter...average. 

Wait... That was the exact opposite argument you had in 2013. Plus that SI article goes by the joke of a stat QBR

[Rhinocero23]

(01-12-2017, 05:53 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Wait... That was the exact opposite argument you had in 2013.

Not me. 
I personally like a gunslinger QB. 
Many do not and I appreciate that. Just different styles of offense for different fans. 

I don't like a lot of int's ever. But there is a huge difference in throwing a long int (basically a punt) to try to flip the script of a game that needs something amazing to happen vs throwing a short pass that is a turnover. 

I know you did not make this claim in this post but you have been one to point to yards per attempt or number of passes of 40 yards

Andy is rated 23rd in QB air yars. His % of yards through the air are 16th out of qualifying QB.s.

He gets a ton of yards from SMART check downs to the open guy with room to run. lol...That IS NOT the same as pushing the ball down the field regularly. 

He is smart he takes his shots when the receiver is open and he has pulled the DB's up due to constant check downs. There is a huge difference in completing an THROUGH THE AIR pass of 41 yards (high school arm) and one 60 yard through the air (gunslinger)...they both count a passes of 40 BTW. 

He plays well and with-in his skill set. It is baffling that his biggest supporters on this board continue to in effect to admit really how much they do not appreciate his play by pretending he is something he is not. 

He DOES NOT HAVE A BIG ARM, HE CAN NOT MAKE ALL THE THROWS. However his is good at what HE CAN DO. Manage the game and protect the ball. 

The issue is he need to have a stacked healthy team to be a contender. Just like any average QB. The argument that all QB's need their team to be intact and healthy during the playoff run is the weakest defense of a game manager. Of course that helps but there are QB's that need less...Andy is not one of them. He needs to be supported...big time. He has had opportunity with a healthy team and a talented roster in the post season. He has not produced a win during the tourney. 

Done the least with the most opportunity ='s  Andy Dalton 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/

[Shake n Blake]

^ On the list you provided, Dalton ranked 9th in air yards. When it comes to averages and percentages, they list every QB that played at all this year (ex: Romo and Landry Jones etc were all listed). Among QBs with at least 1000 air yards (all QBs that actually played for an extended period this season), Dalton ranked 14th in both air yards per attempt and % of yards through the air.

Therefore your list still doesn't help your case that Dalton is a noodle armed, game managing check down artist. Just look at some of the strong armed QBs that were behind Dalton in air yards and air yards %. Including Roethlisberger. Is Ben a check down artist or game manager?

That's not even getting into Dalton's rankings in previous years, particularly 2015.

[Shake n Blake]

I don't necessarily think short passing with lots of YAC is even a bad thing. Montana made a HOF career out of it. Brady was low on the air yard % list a few different years. I just think some folks exaggerate how many short throws Dalton makes and how much he relies on "playmakers" as a means of making Andy seem like a very limited (and therefore) average QB. It's also a means for explaining away any success Dalton has.

I wish people could just appreciate the fact that we have a good QB, and stop trying to diminish what he's capable of doing. No QB is going to post great numbers while being sacked 40+ times, dealing with a totally ineffective run game, and 20 games worth of missed time from top receivers. I'd love to see someone prove me wrong with multiple examples.

[*bfine32*]

(01-12-2017, 01:13 PM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-this-season/

Pro Football focus rankings.

Bfine seems to be much more on target, rational and objective than many on here.

Man you take a lot of the lumps for having a sound argument. lol.

For the record I would agree Andy is a mid-tier NFL QB. If all the stars align he can have a top 10 year but is total body of work will be middle of the pack and nothing extraordinary.

Hog Wash! Everybody knows the DVOA from Football Outsiders is the true measure. When the debate turns to who is the better QB I always point to DVOA from football outsiders and folks usually have to concede the point. 

After all Football Outsiders works closely with ESPN and who could cite them; yet disagree with where a QB rank under their QBR?

Andy Dalton has proven to be a mid-tier QB to date; however, I've heard the 7th year is where QBs start to truly shine. 

[Shake n Blake]

(01-12-2017, 08:46 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Hog Wash! Everybody knows the DVOA from Football Outsiders is the true measure. When the debate turns to who is the better QB I always point to DVOA from football outsiders and folks usually have to concede the point. 

After all Football Outsiders works closely with ESPN and who could cite them; yet disagree with where a QB rank under their QBR?

Andy Dalton has proven to be a mid-tier QB to date; however, I've heard the 7th year is where QBs start to truly shine. 

5th grade level snark aside, I wasn't suggesting DVOA as an end-all grading system even though PFO is a well respected site. Just providing an example that counters what PFF says. And let's be honest, if PFF ranked him lower than PFO, you'd be directing your snide remarks at PFF.

Still waiting on your groupings for high, mid and low tier QBs, btw.