Potential Reason for AJM Trade

[*SHRacerX*]

That title may mislead folks, and that was not my intention, but I was trying to understand why the trade had not happened at this point. The answer I came up with was: Why should it?

I mean, why make the trade today without knowing of the value of pick #33 for the Bengals? Also, why would the Jets or someone (Texans?) offer a pick without knowing what QB they will have a shot at in the 2nd round or if they can trade back in the first to get a Kizer or Mahonnes.

What I am hoping for (for more reasons than just an AJM trade) is that there is a run on QBs in Rd 1. No one saw Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker going as early as they did in Dalton's draft class. Teams will talk themselves in to a QB. Then, if the Browns are left without a QB. Say, SF surprises and takes Trubisky, and the Browns wait and another team takes Watson, that #33 pick might be offered for AJM.

My hope would be a player that can compete at LT, but could also be a very good prospect at Guard, would be there target at #33. The only two players I can think of that fit that prospect are Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson. Most see Lamp as a guard anyways, but he has a lot of LT experience and he actually held up very well against Alabama's defensive talent.

The more I think about it, the more I believe the Bengals are better off waiting with AJM until draft day and see what happens elsewhere. His value could actually go up.

[*Go Cards*]

Agree with why.

Have brought this up before but will repeat it. In Espn's draft simulation show the Browns were offered several trades at #1 but declined. Considered taking Trubisky and Garrett ultimately taking Garrett and deciding they could trade up with Tennessee in front of Jets and still get their QB.

It failed and somebody traded up in front of that (think the Jets) and took Trubisky so they held pat at #12.

Then when #12 arrived Browns immediately phoned the Bengals and offered pick #33 for AJM. Bengals declined though.

So they actually seen it play out the way you see it. Yet because they predicted it it probably will not happen that way.

Hope where they were wrong is that the Bengals except. But there are several scenarios that could help us get a decent offer and hope one arises.

We will not know exactly who we could get at #33 but that is the catbird seat sitting at pick #1 on day two. There will be nice options available.

[Marlon23]

Andy Dalton might be getting a little heavy and can't seem to keep in football shape during the off season. Or in the parameters. He might been eating and drinking a bit to heavily. Perhaps as of February he has added an extra 2 and half inches of love handles which are protruding over his belt loops.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-16-2017, 04:34 PM)Marlon23 Wrote: Andy Dalton might be getting a little heavy and can't seem to keep in football shape during the off season.  Or in the parameters.  He might been eating and drinking a bit to heavily.  Perhaps as of February he has added an extra 2 and half inches of love handles which are protruding over his belt loops.

Too many tuna on rye sandwiches.

[wolfkaosaun]

(04-16-2017, 08:40 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: That title may mislead folks, and that was not my intention, but I was trying to understand why the trade had not happened at this point.  The answer I came up with was:  Why should it?

I mean, why make the trade today without knowing of the value of pick #33 for the Bengals?  Also, why would the Jets or someone (Texans?) offer a pick without knowing what QB they will have a shot at in the 2nd round or if they can trade back in the first to get a Kizer or Mahonnes.  

What I am hoping for (for more reasons than just an AJM trade) is that there is a run on QBs in Rd 1.  No one saw Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker going as early as they did in Dalton's draft class.  Teams will talk themselves in to a QB.  Then, if the Browns are left without a QB.  Say, SF surprises and takes Trubisky, and the Browns wait and another team takes Watson, that #33 pick might be offered for AJM.

My hope would be a player that can compete at LT, but could also be a very good prospect at Guard, would be there target at #33.  The only two players I can think of that fit that prospect are Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson.  Most see Lamp as a guard anyways, but he has a lot of LT experience and he actually held up very well against Alabama's defensive talent.  

The more I think about it, the more I believe the Bengals are better off waiting with AJM until draft day and see what happens elsewhere.  His value could actually go up.

It also comes down to value as well. People tend to over-hype McCarron around here, but you have to think about it this way.

If you're the Browns, would you rather draft Mahomes, Tribusky, Watson, Webb, Kizer; or trade a pick for AJ McCarron who has one year left?
Same with the other QB needy teams, which actually aren't as many as people believe.

Browns need a QB, 49ers need a QB, Texans need a QB, Jets may need a QB (no idea what they want to do), Chargers and Cardinals need a QB for the future. Sure, there's other wildcards, but there's no real desperation at QB this year.
Plus, if you miss out on a QB, you still have players like Cutler and Kaepernick who are free agents.

I honestly don't see McCarron going anywhere this year. I'd like to trade him, but I honestly don't think it'll happen.

[Luvnit2]

(04-17-2017, 01:46 AM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: It also comes down to value as well. People tend to over-hype McCarron around here, but you have to think about it this way.

If you're the Browns, would you rather draft Mahomes, Tribusky, Watson, Webb, Kizer; or trade a pick for AJ McCarron who has one year left?
Same with the other QB needy teams, which actually aren't as many as people believe.

Browns need a QB, 49ers need a QB, Texans need a QB, Jets may need a QB (no idea what they want to do), Chargers and Cardinals need a QB for the future. Sure, there's other wildcards, but there's no real desperation at QB this year.
Plus, if you miss out on a QB, you still have players like Cutler and Kaepernick who are free agents.

I honestly don't see McCarron going anywhere this year. I'd like to trade him, but I honestly don't think it'll happen.

No doubt it comes down to value on behalf of both teams.
Acquiring team - is AJM their 2017 starting QB and possible franchise QB?

Bengals - Who do we replace a solid back up with and how much will he cost us to have a guy we know can step in and win if AD goes down.

I know most fans don't care about economics and think that is a MB only issue, but with cap constraints to me it is huge to have a Back up making only 700 K a year or so as a 3 million dollar back up means one or 2 better quality back ups at other positions

[wolfkaosaun]

(04-17-2017, 02:14 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: No doubt it comes down to value on behalf of both teams.
Acquiring team - is AJM their 2017 starting QB and possible franchise QB?

Bengals - Who do we replace a solid back up with and how much will he cost us to have a guy we know can step in and win if AD goes down.

I know most fans don't care about economics and think that is a MB only issue, but with cap constraints to me it is huge to have a Back up making only 700 K a year or so as a 3 million dollar back up means one or 2 better quality back ups at other positions

That's a big question. Teams have to ask to themselves if they view a guy with only 4 real starts that will be turning 27 in September and has 1 year left on his contract as a franchise QB. At least with a rookie QB, you have them signed for longer. McCarron? Becomes a RFA in 2018. Which has it's benefits and downfalls.

I just don't see him going anywhere in all honesty.

[BengalsBong]

The Bengals will not give AJM up to a division rival for a second round pick and I would not either. The Browns have all kinds of money to extend AJM if he works out for them.

[BigSeph]

The Bengals haven't traded AJM because the Bengals don't want to trade AJM.

There's not a better backup QB in the NFL. They aren't paying him much. They also don't have to play against him if he's on the squad.

There is literally zero reason to trade a cheap, reliable backup with starting NFL QB potential when you're the team that owns his rights. The only reason to trade him would be if you were offered a package that would result in at least one instant starter and multiple other potential starters. AJM's not going to see the field unless there's an injury, so he's not going to help unless something bad happens. Starters on either side of the ball would help no matter what.

So until the Bengals get an offer that provides them with a player who can help on every play on either side of the ball and an extra pick to attempt to replace what AJM was for the team, they have zero motivation or reason to move him.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-17-2017, 06:29 AM)BigSeph Wrote: The Bengals haven't traded AJM because the Bengals don't want to trade AJM.

There's not a better backup QB in the NFL.  They aren't paying him much.  They also don't have to play against him if he's on the squad.

There is literally zero reason to trade a cheap, reliable backup with starting NFL QB potential when you're the team that owns his rights.  The only reason to trade him would be if you were offered a package that would result in at least one instant starter and multiple other potential starters.  AJM's not going to see the field unless there's an injury, so he's not going to help unless something bad happens.  Starters on either side of the ball would help no matter what.

So until the Bengals get an offer that provides them with a player who can help on every play on either side of the ball and an extra pick to attempt to replace what AJM was for the team, they have zero motivation or reason to move him.

The reason I offered is a potential STARTING LT prospect would be there at #33.  If that happened, do you think the Bengals would cling to McCarron over attempting to trade him for that pick?  When they kept Driscoll for the entire 2016 on the roster?  I would say the odds of Lamp or Robinson being there (Garcia?) are long, but my point was that instead of trading him now for whatever player is best at #33, if one of the LT prospects slides to that spot I would certainly be calling the Browns.

You can say you don't think the Bengals would do that, but would you?

[XenoMorph]

(04-16-2017, 08:40 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: That title may mislead folks, and that was not my intention, but I was trying to understand why the trade had not happened at this point.  The answer I came up with was:  Why should it?

I mean, why make the trade today without knowing of the value of pick #33 for the Bengals?  Also, why would the Jets or someone (Texans?) offer a pick without knowing what QB they will have a shot at in the 2nd round or if they can trade back in the first to get a Kizer or Mahonnes.  

What I am hoping for (for more reasons than just an AJM trade) is that there is a run on QBs in Rd 1.  No one saw Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker going as early as they did in Dalton's draft class.  Teams will talk themselves in to a QB.  Then, if the Browns are left without a QB.  Say, SF surprises and takes Trubisky, and the Browns wait and another team takes Watson, that #33 pick might be offered for AJM.

My hope would be a player that can compete at LT, but could also be a very good prospect at Guard, would be there target at #33.  The only two players I can think of that fit that prospect are Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson.  Most see Lamp as a guard anyways, but he has a lot of LT experience and he actually held up very well against Alabama's defensive talent.  

The more I think about it, the more I believe the Bengals are better off waiting with AJM until draft day and see what happens elsewhere.  His value could actually go up.

Yeah it will definitely be a draft day trade. if it happens

we know the bengals have been doing their homework on the QBs in the draft this year probly just in case

[Luvnit2]

(04-17-2017, 06:29 AM)BigSeph Wrote: The Bengals haven't traded AJM because the Bengals don't want to trade AJM.

There's not a better backup QB in the NFL. They aren't paying him much. They also don't have to play against him if he's on the squad.

There is literally zero reason to trade a cheap, reliable backup with starting NFL QB potential when you're the team that owns his rights. The only reason to trade him would be if you were offered a package that would result in at least one instant starter and multiple other potential starters. AJM's not going to see the field unless there's an injury, so he's not going to help unless something bad happens. Starters on either side of the ball would help no matter what.

So until the Bengals get an offer that provides them with a player who can help on every play on either side of the ball and an extra pick to attempt to replace what AJM was for the team, they have zero motivation or reason to move him.

I agree
Any team trading for AJM sees him as their starting QB for the price they would have to pay. I would argue a starting NFL QB has more value than a starting any other position also

Again goes back to the value question for us and them

[Luvnit2]

(04-17-2017, 08:19 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: The reason I offered is a potential STARTING LT prospect would be there at #33.  If that happened, do you think the Bengals would cling to McCarron over attempting to trade him for that pick?  When they kept Driscoll for the entire 2016 on the roster?  I would say the odds of Lamp or Robinson being there (Garcia?) are long, but my point was that instead of trading him now for whatever player is best at #33, if one of the LT prospects slides to that spot I would certainly be calling the Browns.

You can say you don't think the Bengals would do that, but would you?

I think pick 33 is sufficient if right guys are available to start immediately

[*ochocincos*]

(04-16-2017, 08:40 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: That title may mislead folks, and that was not my intention, but I was trying to understand why the trade had not happened at this point.  The answer I came up with was:  Why should it?

I mean, why make the trade today without knowing of the value of pick #33 for the Bengals?  Also, why would the Jets or someone (Texans?) offer a pick without knowing what QB they will have a shot at in the 2nd round or if they can trade back in the first to get a Kizer or Mahonnes.  

What I am hoping for (for more reasons than just an AJM trade) is that there is a run on QBs in Rd 1.  No one saw Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker going as early as they did in Dalton's draft class.  Teams will talk themselves in to a QB.  Then, if the Browns are left without a QB.  Say, SF surprises and takes Trubisky, and the Browns wait and another team takes Watson, that #33 pick might be offered for AJM.

My hope would be a player that can compete at LT, but could also be a very good prospect at Guard, would be there target at #33.  The only two players I can think of that fit that prospect are Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson.  Most see Lamp as a guard anyways, but he has a lot of LT experience and he actually held up very well against Alabama's defensive talent.  

The more I think about it, the more I believe the Bengals are better off waiting with AJM until draft day and see what happens elsewhere.  His value could actually go up.

I'm not so sure the Bengals consider Robinson as a LT prospect. He has length, but he's not the most athletic OL, and we know the Bengals put a premium on athletes for LT.
I think a player like Garett Bolles would be more appealing to the Bengals over Robinson when looking at LT prospects.
Lamp has the needed athleticism, but he doesn't have the ideal OT arm length. If they are fine with the short arms, he could be a very good selection.

[Marlon23]

(04-16-2017, 05:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Too many tuna on rye sandwiches.

LOL No offense to the OP he is cool guy but how many AJ McCarron threads are there now?  LOL.  I just have to have a bit of fun with it..  

[wolfkaosaun]

Here's something I promise GMs have thought about.

Say you trade for McCarron, and he has a very good season. Say around 25-30 TDs, good yards, makes the playoffs.

He's a RFA, but he's probably going to want to hold out for a long term deal. So you're stuck in a position for resigning a guy who had success in one year, but may have to break bank on him.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-17-2017, 01:46 AM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: It also comes down to value as well. People tend to over-hype McCarron around here, but you have to think about it this way.

If you're the Browns, would you rather draft Mahomes, Tribusky, Watson, Webb, Kizer; or trade a pick for AJ McCarron who has one year left?
Same with the other QB needy teams, which actually aren't as many as people believe.

Browns need a QB, 49ers need a QB, Texans need a QB, Jets may need a QB (no idea what they want to do), Chargers and Cardinals need a QB for the future. Sure, there's other wildcards, but there's no real desperation at QB this year.
Plus, if you miss out on a QB, you still have players like Cutler and Kaepernick who are free agents.

I honestly don't see McCarron going anywhere this year. I'd like to trade him, but I honestly don't think it'll happen.

Agree on the over hype for sure ! I've heard people talking about Browns trading their number 12 pick for him. I'd be totally floored if that happened. And I agree on the not going anywhere, I'd be pretty shocked if we got offered anything above a late, late 2nd or 3rd for him, if even that ?

[Shake n Blake]

(04-17-2017, 06:29 AM)BigSeph Wrote: The Bengals haven't traded AJM because the Bengals don't want to trade AJM.

There's not a better backup QB in the NFL.  They aren't paying him much.  They also don't have to play against him if he's on the squad.

There is literally zero reason to trade a cheap, reliable backup with starting NFL QB potential when you're the team that owns his rights.  The only reason to trade him would be if you were offered a package that would result in at least one instant starter and multiple other potential starters.  AJM's not going to see the field unless there's an injury, so he's not going to help unless something bad happens.  Starters on either side of the ball would help no matter what.

So until the Bengals get an offer that provides them with a player who can help on every play on either side of the ball and an extra pick to attempt to replace what AJM was for the team, they have zero motivation or reason to move him.

If one of the 10 or so teams in need of a QB felt that McCarron were a viable option, they would've offered up such a pick or "package" last year. Or maybe even this year. The Bengals don't need an extra "throw in" type of pick to replace McCarron. They already have 11 picks...12 picks if they trade Mac...plus there are some excellent backup options currently available in FA. Either way, if teams believed in Mac as much as you do, he would've been gone a long time ago.

Mike Brown traded Palmer for a late 1st and a 2nd round pick. At the time, it was said that Mike would have to be absolutely floored in order to consider a trade. Now Palmer was a proven franchise QB...so I imagine the price tag on McCarron is substantially less. Say a 2nd rounder would probably get it done. Why has McCarron not even been part of any rumored trades for going on 2 full offseasons? 

Either (a) you think the price tag is substantially higher than a 2nd round pick...which doesn't seem likely, or (b) you think teams aren't willing to cough up a 2nd round pick for a supposedly flawless prospect (you still haven't mentioned a single flaw for Mac). Which is it?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-16-2017, 08:40 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: That title may mislead folks, and that was not my intention, but I was trying to understand why the trade had not happened at this point.  The answer I came up with was:  Why should it?

I mean, why make the trade today without knowing of the value of pick #33 for the Bengals?  Also, why would the Jets or someone (Texans?) offer a pick without knowing what QB they will have a shot at in the 2nd round or if they can trade back in the first to get a Kizer or Mahonnes.  

What I am hoping for (for more reasons than just an AJM trade) is that there is a run on QBs in Rd 1.  No one saw Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker going as early as they did in Dalton's draft class.  Teams will talk themselves in to a QB.  Then, if the Browns are left without a QB.  Say, SF surprises and takes Trubisky, and the Browns wait and another team takes Watson, that #33 pick might be offered for AJM.

My hope would be a player that can compete at LT, but could also be a very good prospect at Guard, would be there target at #33.  The only two players I can think of that fit that prospect are Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson.  Most see Lamp as a guard anyways, but he has a lot of LT experience and he actually held up very well against Alabama's defensive talent.  

The more I think about it, the more I believe the Bengals are better off waiting with AJM until draft day and see what happens elsewhere.  His value could actually go up.

You are correct. I have only argued with the people that say the #33 pick is not worth it for AJM.

To me that is crazy. He is a 5th round pick that holds onto the ball too long. Get something for him while he has value.

I know i sound like a broken record.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-18-2017, 02:01 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: If one of the 10 or so teams in need of a QB felt that McCarron were a viable option, they would've offered up such a pick or "package" last year. Or maybe even this year. The Bengals don't need an extra "throw in" type of pick to replace McCarron. They already have 11 picks...12 picks if they trade Mac...plus there are some excellent backup options currently available in FA. Either way, if teams believed in Mac as much as you do, he would've been gone a long time ago.

Mike Brown traded Palmer for a late 1st and a 2nd round pick. At the time, it was said that Mike would have to be absolutely floored in order to consider a trade. Now Palmer was a proven franchise QB...so I imagine the price tag on McCarron is substantially less. Say a 2nd rounder would probably get it done. Why has McCarron not even been part of any rumored trades for going on 2 full offseasons? 

Either (a) you think the price tag is substantially higher than a 2nd round pick...which doesn't seem likely, or (b) you think teams aren't willing to cough up a 2nd round pick for a supposedly flawless prospect (you still haven't mentioned a single flaw for Mac). Which is it?

Kind of going backwards, but to first address what you said about me not mentioning a single flaw for AJM:  He isn't flawless.  He doesn't run very well.  He may be a bit too conservative (although he is EXACTLY what Houston needs).  All that being said, AJM has started in the NFL for more games than Garoppolo and had more success in college.  How many Patriots go elsewhere and look very average?  If the Browns are really considering offering the Pats #12 for him, AND giving Garoppolo a multi-year, huge deal, they are crazy.  

The real reason I think nothing has happened is two-fold:  One, the reason I already mentioned.  The Bengals can wait and see who is there at #33.  My guess is the Browns and Bengals have already had this conversation.  The other, is that there is not a greater value in the NFL than a QB on their rookie deal.  They get paid a fraction of what average starting QBs are paid and unless they are drafted very high, it is a huge potential savings for multiple years.  Look at how Seattle fared when they had a low-dollar QB.  Ditto SF for a short while.  I believe teams like the Browns, Bears, Jets, 49ers, etc are going to sit back and wait and see who goes QB first, then there will be a scramble.  None of this year's prospects look like year 1 starters anyways.  McCarron could come in to almost any team and be the leader, the stabilizing force at QB for next to nothing. If he looks great, you sign him long term.  If he doesn't you can draft one of the QBs coming out of USC and UCLA next year...they are really highly rated prospects.   

I am a Browns fan #2 (a distant second) and I would love to see it for Cleveland.  You may think less of me now, but I only say that so you know I am not trying to one-sided the trade.