AD better deep ball than u think

[*PhilHos*]

(05-03-2018, 05:01 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The qb rating should measure how good a qb is at making deep throws. 

That's not what it's designed for. It's designed to measure the efficiency of a QB over the course of a season.

[wolverine515151]

(05-03-2018, 05:32 PM)PhilHos Wrote: The point IS simple, but I'm not the one missing it. 2 throws, same distance. 1 results in a TD, 1 doesn't. The one that scores points is more effective because it led directly to a score, ergo, it's "worth" more.

Why you can't grasp that simple point is beyond me.

EDIT: even more mind-numbing is why you think they should be worth the same.

I just showed a scenario that if each play were run  100 times the difference in points produced is very small yet the qb rating difference is very large.  

I didn't say they should be worth the same. The qb rating difference should be to show how effective the two differ in producing points. In this scenario since they produce only 0.1 points difference in 100 drives they should differ by maybe 1 point in rating not 40 points.

Are you actually saying that a deep throw that sets up the ball at the one shouldn't be counted as being instrumental in a team scoring the td. 100% of the drive that allowed the td to be scored would have been because of that deep throw.

Just because the ball was run in from the one doesn't mean they scored because some running back made a spectacular run from the one yard line. It was scored because of the deep throw setting them up at the one yard line!!!

How you cannot grasp that is unbelievable.  Just go away and troll someone else. I cannot explain it any more clearly. If you cannot grasp the concept then go take logic classes.

[wolverine515151]

(05-03-2018, 05:29 PM)PhilHos Wrote: What're you, 5?


First off, no. 

The QB forumla counts completions per attempt, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt and INTs per attempt. Each of those has a separate calculation which are then compiled into a larger formula. Each calculation can only have a maximum value of 2.375. The TD portion can only have a maximum value of 2.375. The yards per attempt portion can only have a maximum value of 2.375. Ergo, no, the QB rating formula does NOT put a weight on TDs or on ANY of the other elements of the formula.


The reason I didn't understand has nothing to do with my comprehension skills. It's because your scenario makes no sense. Show me 1 game in all of NFL history where 1 of the teams launched a deep ball every time they got to midfield. You can't so your scenario is a nonsensical one and has no bearing on the discussion.

It makes perfect sense because its very likely that a deep throw will occur on third down as opposed to the other downs. I also gave the team optimum field position of midfield , which isn't always the case because not every drive even gets to midfield. Even using these idealized conditions for the offense, it would produce very few points. 

Who cares if it isn't a scenario that ever happens , if a qb rating is used to measure a throw as 106 then teams should use that highly rated throw to score points.

If the qb rating that measure the effectiveness of deep throws is to be trusted, it should be able to be trusted in all situations including this scenario I have outlined. In fact, if it is so trustworthy then nfl teams should use this strategy when at midfield.

The fact that it uses a max 2.375 value is subjective weight. Are you going to be playing word games by saying that is not a weight . That is what is called a weight on the formula. It means certain parameters have been assigned values called weights!!! Weight is another word for value since you probably have a limited vocabulary. 

It isn't like gravity that is measured by scientists, it is a weight derived by humans which is subjective.  You have no concept of what a weighted formulas are or what subjective even means. You are a classic dunning krueger. You argue about things you know very little about

[wolverine515151]

(05-03-2018, 05:38 PM)PhilHos Wrote: That's not what it's designed for. It's designed to measure the efficiency of a QB over the course of a season.

The qb rating, if it is to be used to measure how good a qb is at throwing the deep ball, should be accurate in how those deep throws produce points. It does a very bad job of that as I have outlined with numerous examples that you simply cannot comprehend.

[wolverine515151]

Another method to fix the qb ratings would be to build a probability table for the td based on the chances of scoring from where the ball is spotted.

In the example I used the first throw produces a td every time and therefore gets a 1 for probability. I looked it up and the second throw produces td's 90% of the time from the one yard line.The other 10% a fg would be scored. That works out to 6.7 points on average first and goal from the 1.

Using this the qb rating on that deep throw to the one yard line should be 6.7/7 x 158 or 152

Now that is a believable rating. A small difference but not a huge monstrous difference like 40 points that does't show the effectiveness of the throw to produce points.

http://phdfootball.blogspot.ca/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

[fredtoast]

(05-03-2018, 05:27 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I sure can tell you the difference; I would stop the film right before the ball arrives and measure the distance between the defender and the wide receiver.  You could even use some kind of software to measure precisely. I'm sure even something as primitive as a ruler would give  very good accuracy. 

I'm certain that when this guy did his calculation he put small differences in calculation when it was wide open or very open.  He probably gave a slightly lower rating if the qb completed a deep ball to someone wide open as opposed to very open.  Even if he said it was wide open as opposed to very open the difference in points would be very small and would not effect the overall grades he assigns.

The main point is that a huge difference would be calculated if the wide receiver was wide open as opposed to blanketed. A throw made to a wide open receiver is way easier than completing a ball where you have a few inches of error to make the throw.  

He would probably put more air under it if the receiver was closer to the wide receiver, as opposed to farther away, to keep it away from the defender. This would mean more touch and accuracy is needed. Furthermore, even if he made the same throw both times, an inaccurate throw to an open wide receiver  would most likely be a completion while to a tightly covered wide receiver an in completion.

I gave a sketch of what kind of formula I would use.  I have stated it very clearly. I'd calculate the the qb's completion % for all throws over 30 yards and rank them every year for the pass 7 years. Then I would adjust for offensive line and weapons. 

So a QB makes the exact same throwto an open receiver and a covered receiver but gets more credit for one than the other?

I thought you were concerned about measuring how the QB throws the ball, but now you say that doesn't matter instead a QB ranking depends on how open the receivers are.  the exact same throw can get more points based on how well the opposing DB is playing.

[fredtoast]

(05-03-2018, 07:07 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It isn't like gravity that is measured by scientists, it is a weight derived by humans which is subjective.  You have no concept of what a weighted formulas are or what subjective even means. You are a classic dunning krueger. You argue about things you know very little about

And you still do not understand the difference between having subjective weights in a formula (applied 100% the same to every QB) and have subjective inputs (varies from QB to QB based on the beliefs of the person inputing the info)

You can disagree with the weigths in a formula, but the formula is still objective because it applies the same formula to the same objective information for every QB.  No QB can claim he was rated lower because of subjective human bias.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-03-2018, 07:16 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The qb rating,  if it is to be used to measure how good a qb is at throwing the deep ball, should be accurate in how those deep throws produce points.  It does a very bad job of that as I have outlined with numerous examples that you simply cannot comprehend.

I've been on these boards just a few days in on the mother ship back in 2005 and I must say your entire argument here is the biggest grasp at straws in order to degrade a players performance I've ever read.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(05-03-2018, 04:26 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: You're the one who doesn't understand subjective or objective.  When the qb rating is constructed it put a weight on the td, that is subjective,  not objective. That weight is based on what some human thinks should be the weight.  Any time a human comes up with something like a weight on something then that is the definition of subjective.

Who cares if it is applied the same to every qb. A flawed rating  applied to everyone produces a flawed result.  They could have put a billion points weight on the td and even someone like you would see how subjective that weight would be.  

Its very simple to understand.  I'll dumb it down for you to understand. If a team has 8 drives per game and launches a deep ball every time they get to midfield, they would connect on exactly 1 out of 8 for a td. 16 /2 is 8, in case you haven't taken elementary school math. 

The other completion would not produce a td so I gave it a field goal. That means 17 points in two games or 8.5 a game.

This shows that it is not effective to launch a deep ball from midfield with that low of a connection rate and it will produce very few points using that strategy. It is very ineffective at producing points when it still got a 106 rating. So no it does not measure effectiveness.

This is a scenario that is not unlikely because third down is the most likely passing down, out of all the downs in football, and I'm giving the offense an optimum advantage of throwing that deep ball from midfield, which isn't always the case.  Some throws might be not thrown from midfield, but even with ideal conditions for the offense it still doesn't produce many points and yet gets a very high rating.

So, when a human comes up with the go to QB rating....it's subjective.  When a human comes up with blackballblitz.com ratings it's objective.  Got it. :andy:

[*PhilHos*]

(05-03-2018, 07:00 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I just showed a scenario that if each play were run  100 times the difference in points produced is very small yet the qb rating difference is very large.  

I didn't say they should be worth the same. The qb rating difference should be to show how effective the two differ in producing points. In this scenario since they produce only 0.1 points difference in 100 drives they should differ by maybe 1 point in rating not 40 points.

Are you actually saying that a deep throw that sets up the ball at the one  shouldn't be counted as being instrumental in a team scoring the td. 100% of the drive that allowed the td to be scored would have been because of that deep throw.

Just because the ball was run in from the one doesn't mean they scored because some running back made a spectacular run from the one yard line. It was scored because of the deep throw setting them up at the  one yard line!!!

How you cannot grasp that is unbelievable.  Just go away and troll someone else. I cannot explain it any more clearly. If you cannot grasp the concept then go take logic classes.

I am not the troll. You clearly are, but I am entertained by teaching trolls a thing or two, hence why I am one of the only ones still responding to you.

The QB rating doesn't measure 'what ifs'. It doesn't measure where a pass was thrown or where it was caught. It measures a QBs performance over the course of a season in terms of measurable stats per attempts. The QB rating doesn't take into account what happens on the play AFTER a pass (unless it's another pass). It only takes into account the pass. 

BTW, I just checked. If a QB throws a 50 yard pass to the one and then throwns a 1 yard TD pass, he gets the exact same rating as a QB that throws a 50 yard TD pass.

[*PhilHos*]

(05-03-2018, 07:07 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Who cares if it isn't a scenario that ever happens , if a qb rating is used to measure a throw as 106 then teams should use that highly rated throw to score points.

The QB rating isn't used to meausre a throw.

(05-03-2018, 07:07 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: If the qb rating that measure the effectiveness  of deep throws is to be trusted, it should be able to be trusted in all situations including this scenario I have outlined.  In fact, if it is so trustworthy then nfl teams should use this strategy  when at midfield. 

The QB rating isn't used to meausre the effectiveness of deep throws, short throws, long throws, wide throws, backward throws, forward throws, sideways throws, etc. The QB rating is used to measure the efficiency of a player - the QB - hence its name. 
In the case of the OP, it was not used to measure the effictiveness of deep throws, it was used to show which QBs are the more efficient or effective deep ball throwers. 

(05-03-2018, 07:07 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The fact that it uses a max 2.375 value is subjective weight. Are you going to be playing word games by saying that is not a weight . That is what is called a weight on the formula. It means certain parameters have been assigned values called weights!!! Weight is another word for value since you probably have a limited vocabulary. 

Just so you're aware, whenever you resort to personal attacks, you've lost the argument. But, do whatever you got to do instead of admitting you were wrong that the TD was weighted more than the other stats. 

(05-03-2018, 07:07 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It isn't like gravity that is measured by scientists, it is a weight derived by humans which is subjective.  You have no concept of what a weighted formulas are or what subjective even means. You are a classic dunning krueger. You argue about things you know very little about

Now THIS is comedy right here. Oh, please please please PLEASE continue on. This is hilarious!

[*PhilHos*]

(05-03-2018, 07:16 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The qb rating,  if it is to be used to measure how good a qb is at throwing the deep ball, should be accurate in how those deep throws produce points.  It does a very bad job of that as I have outlined with numerous examples that you simply cannot comprehend.

Yes, it does do a bad job of that BECAUSE IT'S DESIGNED TO MEASURE A QB'S EFFICIENCY. It's NOT designed to measure throws of any kind. That's why it's called the QB RATING not the THROWING rating.

[Shake n Blake]

Just a friendly reminder to keep it civil. We can disagree without questioning someone's intelligence or calling each other trolls.

[*bengalfan74*]

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/5/31/17411014/andy-dalton-among-nfls-most-accurate-quarterbacks-on-certain-throws

hmmmmm

[Shake n Blake]

(05-31-2018, 05:16 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/5/31/17411014/andy-dalton-among-nfls-most-accurate-quarterbacks-on-certain-throws

hmmmmm

Quote:PFF’s Steve Palazzolo called Dalton “one of the best seam throwers in the NFL” when talking about the rankings.

We threw a lot more passes down the seams in 2015, it seemed like. Of course, Hue emphasized playing to Dalton's strengths that year.

Imagine that. A coach that molds his system around the QB's strengths.

[bengalguy71]

What amazes me, is that he's in his 8th season and there are STILL folks trying to analyze and dissect this guy????????

[Stonyhands]

(04-05-2018, 12:37 PM)WychesWarrior Wrote: Also.....AJ Green missed substantial time in 2014....the year he specifically mentioned.  Marvin Jones was out too.  Mo Sanu was our #1 WR for several games, IIRC.

Exactly...when AJ isn’t on the field Andy’s deep throw stats drop way off. AJ will undoubtedly go down as the Bengals best WR ever. There’s no way in Hell Andy is anywhere near as good without Green as his Wr.

[BengalsRocker]

(10-19-2018, 05:26 AM)Stonyhands Wrote: Exactly...when AJ isn’t on the field Andy’s deep throw stats drop way off.  AJ  will undoubtedly go down as the Bengals best WR ever.  There’s no way in Hell Andy is anywhere near as good without Green as his Wr.

Well yeah.  Only Tom Brady the GOAT could make do with those other WRs.

Most QBS don't do as well if you take away the best offensive weapon on the team.

It's only obvious.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(10-19-2018, 05:26 AM)Stonyhands Wrote: Exactly...when AJ isn’t on the field Andy’s deep throw stats drop way off.  AJ  will undoubtedly go down as the Bengals best WR ever.  There’s no way in Hell Andy is anywhere near as good without Green as his Wr.

Agree on AJ, but the point was his TWO best weapons missed significant time that year.  I mean, when Mo Sanu is your #1, and Rex Burkhead is your #2....what do you expect?  He's hit Tyler Boyd deep, Eifert deep, John Ross.....even Cody Core, but the latter can't hang on to the ball.

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-19-2018, 05:26 AM)Stonyhands Wrote: Exactly...when AJ isn’t on the field Andy’s deep throw stats drop way off.  AJ  will undoubtedly go down as the Bengals best WR ever.  There’s no way in Hell Andy is anywhere near as good without Green as his Wr.

So if we take Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice, Odell Beckham, Chris Carter, Dez Bryant, or whomever you want to name off the field. Corresponding QB's deep numbers will go up ?