The QB position

[fredtoast]

(05-10-2018, 07:41 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Since you guys hate the QBR because it makes Andy Dalton look bad I decided to go with QB rating. Again he was average to below average every season with the exception of 2015 the last 5 seasons.

2013-15th
2014-25th
2015-2nd 12 games only
2016-17th
2017-17th

I am coming up with slightly different ratings, and I don't know why you don't include his entire career.

'11....20th
'12....13th
'13....15th
'14....25th
'15..... 2nd
'16.....15th
'17.....18th

So top half of the league 4 of 7 years with one elite season.  That is above average.  Without the #2 ranking in '15 you could call him just average, but no matter how much you want to, you can't make '15 disappear.  So he is an above average QB.

You talk about others ignoring facts, but you are the one trying to pretend that the 2015 season is not a "fact".

Also, "passer rating" is just one element.  As I have already pointed out Dalton is elite (top 5) in multiple catagories (Rushing Tds, Fumble Percentage, 4th Quarter Comebacks, 4th Quarter Game Winning Drives) that make him a "good" QB.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(05-09-2018, 05:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In the last decade only 5 QBs have had a season with multiple sub 30 passer rating games.  Dalton was one of those last year when he posted a 28.4 in the opener against the Ravens and a 27.3 against the Vikings.  In his other 14 starts he put up a 94.6 rating which would have been 11th in the league.

That should not happen.  A guy who is good enough to be close to the top 10 for 14 of his starts should not post 2 games with a sub 30 rating.

Here are the passer ratings for the other 4 QBs in the last decade to have had more than one sub 30 passing game in a season

Mark Sanchez '09.......63.0
Geno Smith '13..........66.5
Matt Cassell '09..........69.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick '16....69.6
Dalton '17..................86.6


Totally OT trivia question.  Over the last 20 years Michael Vick has the second most sub 30 games with 5.  Four other QBs are right behind him with 4, but the guy with the most has twice as many (10) as Vick.  He was a starter every season of his ten year career going to the playoffs four times and the Pro Bowl once.

Wow....when you look at those overall numbers, it really paints a picture on how far Dalton's swings can go.  Those other cats' numbers jive with bad to mediocre games all year long.  Dalton, on the other hand, goes from great to wtf.

[*PhilHos*]

(05-09-2018, 04:21 PM)bfine32 Wrote: You can consider top 42% really good if you want. I will consider it average.

It's not average, though. Average would be 50%. 42% is HIGHER than 50%. Ergo, it's ABOVE average. For someone who criticizes others for not using "real facts", you sure don't seem to care about using them yourself.

(05-09-2018, 04:21 PM)bfine32 Wrote: You can consider top 42% really good if you want. I will consider it average. I am sure more on here will agree with it being really good

I'm sure more people would agree that a top 10 QB is NOT average.

[cooper]

(04-29-2018, 02:01 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: We have the least need for a QB in the entire division eh?

1. Steelers-Regardless of Ben's age, he is currently by far the best QB in the entire division. For all we know he could play another 3-4 years and perform at an elite level.  I can completely understand why they'd draft a QB as they did in this draft since their backup is questionable and at some point, Ben needs a replacement.

2. Browns-I'd bet many would argue that Tyrod Taylor and now Baker Mayfield is a much better duo than Andy Dalton and Barkely.  Most astute observers would take the Browns pair over ours. Mayfield has a world of potential and Taylor is a serviceable QB.

3. Ravens- Flacco is inconsistent and has mediocre regular season stats, but let's be real. He's a superowl MVP and nobody can take that away from him. I'd agree that over the last few years he has declined quite a bit, but I'd argue that Dalton has declined as well. Even if you want to argue that Flacco has declined more than Dalton the bottom line is now they have a guy with tremendous upside in Lamar Jackson. I'd take the pair of Flacco and Jackson any day of the week over Dalton and Barkely moving forward.

All three teams in our division now have at least 2 QBs that have value. We are the only one with one QB, and you could make the case that by seasons end we will have the worst starting QB in the division. Time will tell.

lol@ many would argue that Taylor and Mayfield is much better..thats just silly..dalton is a good quarterback that has not had an offensive line the past 2 years..Stick your buddy Ben behind the very same line,..he looks worse than dalton

[cooper]

no reason that Dalton cant play at a high level the next 5 -7 years..his line has stunk the past few years......stick..brady, ben aaron,etc/....... behind the very same line..they would have looked as bad or worse

[cooper]

(05-09-2018, 04:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Well I think this has been beaten to death again.  So I will post the stats that I try to end with.  I think these say more About Dalton than any thing else.

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating over 125 than Dalton's 14 (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan)

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating under 60 than Dalton's 13.

When he is good he is better than a lot of people want to admit.  At his best he is among the very best.

But when he is bad he is total crap.

Dalton does not need to get a lot better.  He just needs to get more consistent.  Stop laying so many eggs.  A team can overcome a QB having a below average game (70's) but its tough when your QBs passer rating is in the 50's.

Dalton has a .646 win percentage with a rating over 60 (61-33-2) but only .153 (2-11) under 60.

needs a good offensive line..he will be fine and can play another 5-7 years

[cooper]

(05-09-2018, 09:52 AM)Socal Bengals fan Wrote: Dalton still sucks can we move on.  unless he has a perfect supporting staff, he is a below average quarterback who shrinks in the spot light

his record indicates otherwise

[*PhilHos*]

(05-10-2018, 07:41 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Since you guys hate the QBR because it makes Andy Dalton look bad I decided to go with QB rating. Again he was average to below average every season with the exception of 2015 the last 5 seasons.

2013-15th
2014-25th
2015-2nd 12 games only
2016-17th
2017-17th

Essentially, if you take out a 10 game stretch in 2015, many can conclude that he has been an average to below average QB based upon even the rating systems such as QBR and QB rating.  If you include the 10 game stretch which you should, it leads almost everyone to believe that he's been average.

You want to argue go right ahead......but facts are facts.

Now can anyone in their right mind answer this question for me objectively. Why is it that almost everybody in the world rates Andy Dalton at the "Average" level outside of Cincinnati?  Is it because everyone hates Andy Dalton? Is it because the Bengals are in a small market team?  Hmm....but then why do players like Atkins and AJ Green get the earned recognition?  Again, some of you are not being objective when it comes to Andy Dalton......it is what it is.

Strawman (bolded) aside, you're finally starting to use actual facts to back up your claim (though you still throw in non-facts like "everybody in the world's" opinion, but at least you're starting to focus on a legitimate stat to back up your claim, so kudos for doing so.

However, both fred and Shake have addressed that the reason most view Dalton higher than you is not because of one stat. It's a culmination of things. Here, they both said it very well:

(05-09-2018, 04:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Well I think this has been beaten to death again.  So I will post the stats that I try to end with.  I think these say more About Dalton than any thing else.

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating over 125 than Dalton's 14 (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan)

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating under 60 than Dalton's 13.

When he is good he is better than a lot of people want to admit.  At his best he is among the very best.

But when he is bad he is total crap.

Dalton does not need to get a lot better.  He just needs to get more consistent.  Stop laying so many eggs.  A team can overcome a QB having a below average game (70's) but its tough when your QBs passer rating is in the 50's.

Dalton has a .646 win percentage with a rating over 60 (61-33-2) but only .153 (2-11) under 60.

Fred is exactly right. Dalton's biggest problem isn't that he's bad or that he's average. It's that he is prone to inconsistency and when he's bad, he can be REALLY bad. It's a testament to how good he is that his stats level out to average-to-above-average considering how bad his bad games are.

And here's Shake with the knock-out punch:

(05-09-2018, 05:41 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't form my opinion on Dalton solely on that season though. 

- I look at 2012, when he posted 31 total TD's and had the 13th best passer rating.
- I look at 2013, when he broke Bengals records for yards (4293) and passing TDs (33) with 35 total.
- I look at 2014, when despite poor overall season numbers (due to the 2.0 game and a flu game), he led the team to a sweep of the Ravens and a 3-1-1 record without AJ Green.
- I look at 2016, when he went for 4000 and a 91.8 rating despite getting battered. 
- I look at the 63-44-2 record as starter.
- I look at 4 seasons where he was 15th in passer rating or better (always among 35-40+ passers, not 32 as people mistakenly assume)
- I look at his career rating being among the better in the league, regardless of how you want to slice it up.
- I look at his low fumble/turnover rate.
- I look at his impressive deep ball numbers. 
- I look at how he turned around his own prime-time performance, but we're still losing.
- I look at how 3 other QB's have all been terrible in their playoff games and come away feeling Dalton (like so many others) has been wasted.

[sandwedge]

(05-10-2018, 10:57 AM)PhilHos Wrote: It's not average, though. Average would be 50%. 42% is HIGHER than 50%. Ergo, it's ABOVE average. For someone who criticizes others for not using "real facts", you sure don't seem to care about using them yourself.


I'm sure more people would agree that a top 10 QB is NOT average.

Thanks for pointing that out. I kept looking at those percentages and was thinking, that's above average. I didn't want to get into this stupid debate, so I said nothing.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-10-2018, 11:05 AM)cooper Wrote: no reason that Dalton cant play at a high level the next 5 -7 years..his line has stunk the past few years......stick..brady, ben aaron,etc/....... behind the very same line..they would have looked as bad or worse

Brady maybe, but Ben and Rodgers make plays happen when their lines break down. Both would do far better than Dalton in that regard.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(05-10-2018, 11:18 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Brady maybe, but Ben and Rodgers make plays happen when their lines break down. Both would do far better than Dalton in that regard.

Agreed....and I think Brady would have done at least a little better as well.

[*PhilHos*]

(05-10-2018, 11:21 AM)Wyche Wrote: Agreed....and I think Brady would have done at least a little better as well.

I dunno. That's always been the most successful strategy in stopping or slowing Brady is to hit him early and often. I think Belichick would come up with a plan to work around the weaknesses of the line more than Brady doing anything specific. But, add me as one who could see Ben and Rogers overcoming any crappy OL.

[fredtoast]

(05-10-2018, 11:18 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Brady maybe, but Ben and Rodgers make plays happen when their lines break down. Both would do far better than Dalton in that regard.

Rodgers and Roethlisberger are not just good at it.  They are two of the best in the history of the game at making plays when blocking breaks down (but Ben is also great at making the O-line look bad because he takes so many sacks trying to make plays).  They are both Hall of Famers.

There are lots of "good" QBs who struggle to make plays with poor pass protection.  And even the best under pressure, like Ben and Rodgers, see their numbers drop when they are under pressure.  So even though they can make more plays they are not completely immune from the effect of poor pass protection.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(05-10-2018, 11:28 AM)PhilHos Wrote: I dunno. That's always been the most successful strategy in stopping or slowing Brady is to hit him early and often. I think Belichick would come up with a plan to work around the weaknesses of the line more than Brady doing anything specific. But, add me as one who could see Ben and Rogers overcoming any crappy OL.

I agree with the premise....and you're right....it's just that Brady is more seasoned and is a cool customer, hence why I said he would do a little better in my opinion.

[J24]

(05-10-2018, 07:41 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Since you guys hate the QBR because it makes Andy Dalton look bad I decided to go with QB rating. Again he was average to below average every season with the exception of 2015 the last 5 seasons.

2013-15th
2014-25th
2015-2nd 12 games only
2016-17th
2017-17th

Essentially, if you take out a 10 game stretch in 2015, many can conclude that he has been an average to below average QB based upon even the rating systems such as QBR and QB rating.  If you include the 10 game stretch which you should, it leads almost everyone to believe that he's been average.

You want to argue go right ahead......but facts are facts.

Now can anyone in their right mind answer this question for me objectively. Why is it that almost everybody in the world rates Andy Dalton at the "Average" level outside of Cincinnati?  Is it because everyone hates Andy Dalton? Is it because the Bengals are in a small market team?  Hmm....but then why do players like Atkins and AJ Green get the earned recognition?  Again, some of you are not being objective when it comes to Andy Dalton......it is what it is.

He was 15th in 16 and 13th in 2012.

[Joelist]

Miscellaneous things...

1) The reason why we (and pretty much all credible football fans) dislike QBR is not because of how it makes Andy look. It is because it produces bizarre results and is a joke pretty much everywhere except ESPN. If it made Andy look like Tom Brady II I would still dislike it.

2) When looking at career stats, keep in mind that 2015 was the first (and so far only) season where we had:
a) More than just AJ as a credible WR threat
b) An actual threat at TE
c) Hue as OC - he was demanding and had a cogent scheme

3) In none of the years did we have competent Center play or any sort of legitimate running game. And pocket passers suffer a lot from poor Center play as it results in not being able to step into the pocket - and thus into throws.

Which all leads into...

Quarterbacks play as a part of an offensive team that uses an offensive system. It all flows together. Could he be more consistent? Sure. But he is PDG (Pretty Darned Good) as is.

[*bfine32*]

I think this thread shows how defensive some folks can get. Go back and read the OP; he gives Andy credit. It went sideways when I challenged someone that said "back up QB doesn't matter,if you lose your starter you are done". I made the mistake of suggesting we could win without Andy and did come quite close (closer than ever). That morphed quickly into "oh no you didn't just disrespect Andy".

[CornerBlitz]

(05-10-2018, 06:29 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think this thread shows how defensive some folks can get. Go back and read the OP; he gives Andy credit. It went sideways when I challenged someone that said "back up QB doesn't matter,if you lose your starter you are done". I made the mistake of suggesting we could win without Andy and did come quite close (closer than ever). That morphed quickly into "oh no you didn't just disrespect Andy".

And unfortunately I got suckered in even though i kept saying I wouldn't do it......just goes to show you the Dalton army is still as strong as ever here. 

I'll end with this. If you are a fan of Dalton then there is no reason why you shouldn't be a fan of Marvin Lewis. Both are average at at their respective positions which is why we end up in the overall scheme of things just an average up and down team that can't get the job done when it counts the most and when you need your coach and QB to step it up.

There is a reason why a handful of teams are always making a run for the Lombardi....it's because they either have a rock solid system in place or they have a very good QB that hides the teams weaknesses. We have neither.

[fredtoast]

(05-11-2018, 03:19 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: There is a reason why a handful of teams are always making a run for the Lombardi....it's because they either have a rock solid system in place or they have a very good QB that hides the teams weaknesses. We have neither.

And there is a reason you said nothing about the Eagles winning the Super Bowl before last year.

Because you are not as perfect at recognizing a Super Bowl coach/QB as you claim you are.

[t3r3e3]

(05-11-2018, 08:59 AM)fredtoast Wrote: And there is a reason you said nothing about the Eagles winning the Super Bowl before last year.

Because you are not as perfect at recognizing a Super Bowl coach/QB as you claim you are.

In all fairness, Doug Peterson was a new head coach, Wentz was a second year QB, and other than 2014 (or 15, can’t remember), Nick Foles has never sustained play at that level. Kind of hard to look a few years back and predict an Eagles title in 2017 given the turnover at HC, QB, and the Foles wildcard. I’m not backing CB per se, but literally no one picked the Eagles to win a title in 2017, experts included.

And, the point about Andy and Marvin was valid. Combine an average to slightly above average QB to a middling coach and it likely doesn’t get a team a Lombardi. The NFL has proven this many times over. When we look back at the average-ish QB’s with Super Bowl wins in the last 30 years (Flacco, Doug Williams, Eli, Dilfer, now Foles, etc.), the common denominator is all had very good head coaches (and defenses). Marvin is not on the level of Billick, Gibbs, Coughlin, Harbaugh, Peterson. Lewis’s perpetual mismanagement of clock, game flow, and strategic play will continue to doom this team.