Player Bias

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have posted stats to prove my point.  It is impossible for him to have been used for nothing but deep routes when he has an average target of 14.



I got that stat from NextGen.  https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#yards.  

Just more proof of how clueless you are.




Yep.  That is what happens when you run the wrong route or give up on a route.  If the receiver is not where he is supposed to be that makes the pass uncatchable.

If it was the QBs fault then all our receivers would be ranked that low, but they are not.

This is an assumption you are making. You have no way to provide proof that that is fact.

Also, I never said he only ran deep routes. I've said he's run a majority of routes outside of the red zone as deeper routes. There's a difference. One is an absolute, the other is not.

[BengalChris]

(08-09-2019, 02:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: He ran a lot of short routes in the red zone and was highly effective.  You still haven't been able to explain how he can be running similar routes between the 20's as the redzone, but the #'s are so disparate.

Ross gets lost in the open field and ends up in the wrong spot. That's what happens with him. In the endzone he has the goal line and the back line to help him judge his location. Running along the back of the endzone is simple. If you watch him playing in game you will see all of this.

[fredtoast]

(08-09-2019, 05:07 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This is an assumption you are making. You have no way to provide proof that that is fact.

I can't think of any other reason for one WR to have such a low catchable rate from the same QB that throws catchable balls to all his other receivers?

What is your explanation?

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I can't think of any other reason for one WR to have such a low catchable rate from the same QB that throws catchable balls to all his other receivers?

What is your explanation?

My explanation is that the receiver with the much lower catchable rate is being thrown the ball on much deeper routes than the ones who have a much higher catchable rate.

[fredtoast]

(08-09-2019, 05:14 PM)ochocincos Wrote: My explanation is that the receiver with the much lower catchable rate is being thrown the ball on much deeper routes than the ones who have a much higher catchable rate.

Except Green had a catchable rate of 78% and his average target (12.7) was not that much shorter than Ross's (14.0).


BTW even when you look at catch percentage on JUST the catchable targets Ross still sucks (#109 ranking).*






* stat courtesy of ochocinco link 

[*Synric*]

(08-09-2019, 05:14 PM)ochocincos Wrote: My explanation is that the receiver with the much lower catchable rate is being thrown the ball on much deeper routes than the ones who have a much higher catchable rate.

Ross ran his share of shorter routes he was just rarely the primary target.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-09-2019, 01:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am saying that if his success in the red zone was due to "quickness in short space" then he would also use it between the 20's instead of just in the red zone.

Kind of have to run the play that is called Fred.

Don't think Lazor used Ross right between the 20's.

We will see this year if Taylor can use Ross correctly, in short space, on short slants, screens, curls.

Make the Defense respect his short game, then send him deep once they bite.

[Whatever]

(08-09-2019, 04:40 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have posted his average target distance and it proves he was not just used on fly patterns.

For every 30 yard target Ross had on average he would have to have 4 10-yarders to drop his average to 14.

Nobody said he was only used on fly patterns.  Multiple people have stated that he was primarily used on fly patterns and other deep routes between the 20's.

Secondly, your argument is flawed because average yards per Target only takes into account the plays where he is actually thrown the ball.  By your logic, he could run 30 fly patterns a game without being targeted, but if they throw him 1 6 yard slant, he isn't being used primarily on fly patterns.

You also understand that they could Target him on 4 21 yard fly patterns, a slant from the 1 yard line, and a WR screen and his average yards/Target would be 14 while still being primarily used on fly routes, right?

You still haven't explained how he's so effective inside the redzone if he's running the same routes as between the 20's.

[BengalChris]

(08-09-2019, 05:14 PM)ochocincos Wrote: My explanation is that the receiver with the much lower catchable rate is being thrown the ball on much deeper routes than the ones who have a much higher catchable rate.

When the receiver runs the route wrong, how catchable will the ball be????????

Same QBs, remember.

 

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:23 PM)BengalChris Wrote: When the receiver runs the route wrong, how catchable will the ball be????????

Same QBs, remember.

 

How do you know he ran a bunch of wrong routes? How do you know he didn't run the correct route but the ball was under or overthrown? There's evidence of that multiple times in the clip I posted of the Saints game. A deep ball underthrown. A crosser that was thrown too far ahead of Ross.

It's pretty clear Ross and Dalton don't have their timing down and that Dalton struggles with hitting receivers in stride with the deep ball. We've seen the deep ball issues with other receivers with Dalton. The difference is most of the other receivers going deep (like AJ and Marvin Jones) are taller and therefore have better ability to come back to the underthrown ball and high point it. Ross isn't going to out-leap defenders.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Except Green had a catchable rate of 78% and his average target (12.7) was not that much shorter than Ross's (14.0).


BTW even when you look at catch percentage on JUST the catchable targets Ross still sucks (#109 ranking).*






* stat courtesy of ochocinco link 

What you didn't state in that line you posted was the actually catch percentage of catchable targets.
Yes, it's #109 ranking but it's also 65.6%.

65.6% is FAR better than the 36.2% catch percentage that included uncatchable balls.

In comparison, AJ Green's catchable ball rate:
76.7%, or the 85th ranking.

Since AJ is ranked 85th, does that mean he's terrible too?

[*Synric*]

(08-09-2019, 05:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: How do you know he ran a bunch of wrong routes? How do you know he didn't run the correct route but the ball was under or overthrown? There's evidence of that multiple times in the clip I posted of the Saints game. A deep ball underthrown. A crosser that was thrown too far ahead of Ross.

It's pretty clear Ross and Dalton don't have their timing down and that Dalton struggles with hitting receivers in stride with the deep ball. We've seen the deep ball issues with other receivers with Dalton. The difference is most of the other receivers going deep (like AJ and Marvin Jones) are taller and therefore have better ability to come back to the underthrown ball and high point it. Ross isn't going to out-leap defenders.

There were alot of I guess you would called them bad routes by John Ross. You mention overthrown deep balls but a receiver getting tangled up with a corner or pushed off his line can cause those too. Which was John Ross's biggest issue last year.

[NKURyan]

(08-09-2019, 05:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Kind of have to run the play that is called Fred.

Don't think Lazor used Ross right between the 20's.

We will see this year if Taylor can use Ross correctly, in short space, on short slants, screens, curls.

Make the Defense respect his short game, then send him deep once they bite.

For the love of god, run a WR screen for once and give him a chance to do something. This is especially important for a young player who desperately needs to build some confidence. I didn't think this was brain surgery, but Lazor evidently disagreed.

[SunsetBengal]

(08-09-2019, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The 6 inside the ten are included in the 8 inside the 20.  So he had a total of 8 not 14.

I had to look at it twice myself to figure it out.

(08-09-2019, 04:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I already stated that the same wasn't compiled for every single game.
I'm not about to go further justify my stance by doing all that research when you haven't provided a single point to justify yours.
Besides, you're taking the 14 yard average target distance from something I originally posted on this board, so I even did that research for you.

Btw, here's another fun fact:
John Ross only had 55% of his targets as catchable balls.
That was ranked 111th in the NFL last year.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/john-ross/

In comparison, AJ Green had a catchable target rate of 78%. Boyd had 80.5%.

(08-09-2019, 04:55 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You read it wrong.
The inside 10 is included in the inside 20.
The inside 10 was added to show that most of the inside 20 was actually inside 10.
I guess I should have made that more clear.

Thanks guys, I was at work at the time, just taking a break between drawing up Surveys.  But yes, I read it wrong.  I was thinking that since they had inside the 10 listed, that inside the 20 meant from between the 10 and 20 yard lines.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:38 PM)Synric Wrote: There were alot of I guess you would called them bad routes by John Ross. You mention overthrown deep balls but a receiver getting tangled up with a corner or pushed off his line can cause those too. Which was John Ross's biggest issue last year.

Wait wait wait, if a receiver is tangled up with a corner or pushed off the line, that's considered running a bad route?

[*Synric*]

(08-09-2019, 05:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Wait wait wait, if a receiver is tangled up with a corner or pushed off the line, that's considered running a bad route?

Technically yea...That is all apart of the route. Ross has to be more physical in his routes and of course work on his releases against press and off man.Those were all things he had trouble with in college and it showed last year. 

You're also right of course he also needs to develop trust and chemistry with Dalton and others have also mentioned he needs some plays to showcase his skillset too crossers, screens, rubs, slants etc.

[Whatever]

(08-09-2019, 05:23 PM)BengalChris Wrote: When the receiver runs the route wrong, how catchable will the ball be????????

Same QBs, remember.

 

You understand that fly patterns only have about a 25% completion rate in the NFL, right?  If one receiver is sent on a bunch of fly patterns it creates more difficult throws for the QB than quick slants to the slot receiver.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:51 PM)Synric Wrote: Technically yea...That is all apart of the route. Ross has to be more physical in his routes and of course work on his releases against press and off man.Those were all things he had trouble with in college and it showed last year. 

You're also right of course he also needs to develop trust and chemistry with Dalton and others have also mentioned he needs some plays to showcase his skillset too crossers, screens, rubs, slants etc.

Whenever I hear "ran the wrong route," I think they did something they weren't supposed to, like go left instead or right. Or stop instead of go.
I see your example of Ross not being big and physical enough to handle press coverage.
And if someone is at a different point in their route than where the QB thinks they will be, I consider that a timing issue. Not necessarily a "wrong route."

I agree with your assessment that he isn't great handling press coverage but I wouldn't expect a 5'11", 190 lb WR to be great at that.

I think some people expect Ross to be able to do all the things AJ Green can but he's not 6'4", 210 lbs. He's a smaller guy.

Andrew Hawkins was a small but fast guy like Ross (smaller actually), yet Hawkins was used primarily in the short routes and then used his speed to get YAC. I think Ross would thrive best in that situation, but he was being asked to play like a much bigger WR, which wasn't (isn't) fair.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-09-2019, 03:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 14 yards is not very much if you want to claim that all he was used for was fly routes.  A J Green's average was 12.7.  Are you going to claim that all he ran was fly patterns?

For every 30 yard target Ross had that means he had about 4 10-yarders to bring his average down to 14.

And he had well over 58 targets.

14 yards is a lot. AJs was almost 2 yards less and he's their primary deep target. How do you not understand that? If they were running Ross underneath, like they should, his average would be much lower. 

It's basic math.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 05:20 PM)Synric Wrote: Ross ran his share of shorter routes he was just rarely the primary target.

Can you provide some breakdown showing Ross number of snaps by route and/or yards downfield? I am having a hard time finding. I have looked across many sites include pro-football-reference, PFF, ESPN, Player Profiler, etc and cannot find.