Player Bias

[THE PISTONS]

(08-10-2019, 02:21 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: That is the thing, most that hate on Ross never had any expectations for him in the first place and hated the pick.

Rooting for both these guys big time.



Great post. Price if he plays stellar would improve this team probably more than any other player.

Starts from him on out. Think he will grow into this player, sure hoping he will.

The thing is, IF the Bengals signed some upgrades in free agency...there wouldn't need to be this scrutiny on 1st Round picks. The Bengals model basically needs production from these picks early to win.

Now, we rarely get that Year 1. Sometimes Year 2, etc.

[BengalsRocker]

(08-11-2019, 11:31 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The thing is, IF the Bengals signed some upgrades in free agency...there wouldn't need to be this scrutiny on 1st Round picks. The Bengals model basically needs production from these picks early to win.

Now, we rarely get that Year 1. Sometimes Year 2, etc.

The team puts a lot of stock into hope and magic.

1.  Hope all of those rooks play like starters.

2.  The incompetent vet guys who have sucked for years will magically get better.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-11-2019, 11:31 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The thing is, IF the Bengals signed some upgrades in free agency...there wouldn't need to be this scrutiny on 1st Round picks. The Bengals model basically needs production from these picks early to win.

Now, we rarely get that Year 1. Sometimes Year 2, etc.

Yeah, FA is always holding us back it seems.

This is where I get mad at Mikey boy. Nothing wrong with going out in FA and getting a good proven player at an area of need. As a matter of fact it is what you should be doing. There were all kinds of O-lineman and Linebackers in FA we could of got to improve our weaknesses contrary to what some might say.

(08-11-2019, 01:59 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: The team puts a lot of stock into hope and magic.

1.  Hope all of those rooks play like starters.

2.  The incompetent vet guys who have sucked for years will magically get better.

I have to hope, otherwise i just won't even care. That is just sad.

Hoping these new coaches can get it together. Especially Lou and Tem.

Starting Offense looked good with backups which is encouraging.

But this Defense needs to learn how to tackle. KC I hope will wake them up...

Hope, hope, hope is all we can do.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-11-2019, 03:31 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, FA is always holding us back it seems.

This is where I get mad at Mikey boy. Nothing wrong with going out in FA and getting a good proven player at an area of need. As a matter of fact it is what you should be doing. There were all kinds of O-lineman and Linebackers in FA we could of got to improve our weaknesses contrary to what some might say.



I have to hope, otherwise i just won't even care. That is just sad.

Hoping these new coaches can get it together. Especially Lou and Tem.

Starting Offense looked good with backups which is encouraging.

But this Defense needs to learn how to tackle. KC I hope will wake them up...

Hope, hope, hope is all we can do.

I wasn't able to watch, but I heard the offense looked solid even though they were missing all but one of their starting weapons. Green, Eifert, Mixon, Bernard, and Ross all out.

Not a fan of Dalton missing a wide open Malone deep due to (yet) an(other) underthrown ball though.

[Essex Johnson]

(08-08-2019, 02:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Just happened to notice something when browsing through PFF...

John Ross 2018 - 49.4
Billy Price 2018 - 49.4

Yet when I see most people talk about Billy Price, it's mostly optimism that he's going to develop into a stud.
On the flip side, I see a lot of pessimism on Ross doing the same.

Why are Price and Ross viewed in opposite trajectories when they both had a not-good-overall 2018 season? Why is Price given a pass but Ross is (overly) criticized as being a bust?

Is it because one was picked at 9 while the other was picked at 21?
Is it because one plays a position that doesn't have stats associated with it whereas the other does?
It sure can't be about durability, as both entered their NFL career injured and neither has played 16 games yet in their careers.

The bias is really that you are just referencing one resource.. PFF... and trying to compare different playing positions and different player development stages.. really does not work well.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-12-2019, 10:32 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: The bias is really that you are just referencing one resource.. PFF... and trying to compare different playing positions and different player development stages.. really does not work well.

So what does work well?

[Catmandude123]

(08-11-2019, 11:28 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think it's more than blowing up stats. I doubt that Jerry Rice was injured this much in his 1st 2 years and I doubt that Rice looked as lost out there as Ross does.

I doubt that Rice didn't fight for balls.

There's nothing about Ross that indicates future star. Maybe he's salvageable? But, at some point he's going to need to actually practice to improve.

And Rice had 927 yards as a rookie and 1570 yards in Year 2. Steve Largent had 705 yards and 643 yards in his 1st 2 seasons.

Who his team mates are helps the development. Rice had Montana, with a very talented line and running game, tossing the ball to him. You shouldn't buy Lamborghinis if you live on a gravel road.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-10-2019, 12:51 AM)BengalChris Wrote: What gets old is people blaming Ross' poor play on other people. It is constant dribble. Ultimately, the only one responsible for Ross' performance is Ross himself.

If Ross were a more capable receiver last year, he would have caught more passes. He had plenty of opportunities. It had nothing to do with Marvin Lewis, Andy Dalton or anyone other than John Ross.

In fact, Ross' position coach this year, Bob Bicknell, was his position coach last year. So even if Ross explodes this season all it tells us is that it took him three years to show up.

 

If anything, it's probably safe to say Ross and Dalton don't mesh well with their skill sets. Dalton's always done better with bigger receivers in the shorter to intermediate route range. Ross isn't a big guy who will win 50-50 balls deep, and Dalton can't hit WRs consistently in stride deep down the field.

All I'm saying is let's see if Ross still as unproductive if he's used often in the short to intermediate passing game, as he really felt misused.

[Essex Johnson]

(08-12-2019, 11:11 AM)ochocincos Wrote: So what does work well?

That's the problem they are not very comparable plus you only use one set of data that is rating of different positions 

[*ochocincos*]

(08-13-2019, 12:30 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: That's the problem they are not very comparable plus you only use one set of data that is rating of different positions 

Except a 49.4 rating is considered poor for both positions. And I may have posted just PFF's rating but it's not like PFF is the ONLY source that thought Price and Ross played poorly overall last season.

Regardless, Fred (and some others) made a good distinction.
One (Price) was a rookie and the other (Ross) was in his second year.
Expectations are/were higher for a 2nd year vs a rookie.

While I don't fully agree because I think some players still need more time to develop than just one full season, I can understand that logic.
I think too that people really felt the Bengals could trade back and still get Ross if they wanted him rather than spend the 9th pick. However, with Davis and Williams both going off the board before 9 surprisingly, that likely made them feel like they had to take him at 9 if they wanted him.

[Bengalitis]

Did you see who the Chiefs drafted round 1??? Mecole Hardman. Did you see him play this PS game? The clone replacement of Tyreek Hill, minus the legal mess. Great hands, great feet. If you didn't, check out the game footage.

Meanwhile, year 3. Mr. Aikili Ross is somewhere in the benches holding the clipboard.

[BenZoo2]

(08-13-2019, 10:23 AM)Bengalitis Wrote: Did you see who the Chiefs drafted round 1??? Mecole Hardman. Did you see him play this PS game? The clone replacement of Tyreek Hill, minus the legal mess. Great hands, great feet. If you didn't, check out the game footage.

Meanwhile, year 3. Mr. Aikili Ross is somewhere in the benches holding the clipboard.

Actually I think they traded up in round two to draft him, but your point is well taken


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*ochocincos*]

(08-13-2019, 10:23 AM)Bengalitis Wrote: Did you see who the Chiefs drafted round 1??? Mecole Hardman.  Did you see him play this PS game? The clone replacement of Tyreek Hill, minus the legal mess. Great hands, great feet. If you didn't, check out the game footage.

Meanwhile, year 3. Mr. Aikili Ross is somewhere in the benches holding the clipboard.

Hardman was taken 2nd round (pick 56) in the draft, not 1st round.
And based off his production in college, Hardman's best season was less than half of Ross's (35/543/7 vs 81/1150/17).
Not to mention Hardman isn't quite as fast as Ross.
And both Ross and Hardman were great returners in college.

With that said, Hardman hasn't had the injury problems that Ross has had.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2019, 06:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I was hoping there was some secret site that had that collected that I either didn't know about or don't pay for lol

I've actually taken the time to go read through every Play-by-Play of every game Ross played in last year via Pro Football Reference.
I was able to collect the following information....

John Ross receptions by game:

Week 1 – 1 (3 yds)
Week 2 –  1 (8 yds)
Week 3 – 3 (9 yds, 4 yds, 3 yds)
Week 4 – 2 (39 yds, 13 yds)
Week 7 – 0
Week 9 – 2 (2 yds, 37 yds)
Week 10 – 2 (22 yds, 5 yds)
Week 11 – 3 (17 yds, 2 yds, 12 yds)
Week 12 – 2 (11 yds, 2 yds)
Week 13 – 2 (5 yds, 6 yds)
Week 14 – 1 (6 yds)
Week 15 – 1 (3 yds)
Week 16 – 1 (1 yd)
 
Receptions by distance:
15 or less yards (short) = 17
16+ yards (deep) = 4

Misses by distance:

Short = 17
Deep = 20
 
Total targets by distance:
Short = 34 (50% completion percentage)
Deep = 24 (16.7% completion percentage)

As we can see, Ross had much better success targeted shorter than he did when targeted deeper, although the completion percentage isn't great for "short" targets either.
Given the amount of time it took to collect this data, I don't really want to do the same for the other receivers, but I'd expect Ross led the team in deep targets with 24.

[BengalChris]

(08-14-2019, 12:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I've actually taken the time to go read through every Play-by-Play of every game Ross played in last year via Pro Football Reference.
I was able to collect the following information....

John Ross receptions by game:

Week 1 – 1 (3 yds)
Week 2 –  1 (8 yds)
Week 3 – 3 (9 yds, 4 yds, 3 yds)
Week 4 – 2 (39 yds, 13 yds)
Week 7 – 0
Week 9 – 2 (2 yds, 37 yds)
Week 10 – 2 (22 yds, 5 yds)
Week 11 – 3 (17 yds, 2 yds, 12 yds)
Week 12 – 2 (11 yds, 2 yds)
Week 13 – 2 (5 yds, 6 yds)
Week 14 – 1 (6 yds)
Week 15 – 1 (3 yds)
Week 16 – 1 (1 yd)
 
Receptions by distance:
15 or less yards (short) = 17
16+ yards (deep) = 4

Misses by distance:

Short = 17
Deep = 20
 
Total targets by distance:
Short = 34 (50% completion percentage)
Deep = 24 (20% completion percentage)

As we can see, Ross had much better success targeted shorter than he did when targeted deeper, although the completion percentage isn't great for "short" targets either.
Given the amount of time it took to collect this data, I don't really want to do the same for the other receivers, but I'd expect Ross led the team in deep targets with 24.

In other words, 2018 was an improvement over his 2017 stats, which were 0 catch percentage and 1 fumble in 3 games.

He's still miles from what a top 10 pick should do for the team.

 

[*ochocincos*]

(08-14-2019, 01:36 PM)BengalChris Wrote: In other words, 2018 was an improvement over his 2017 stats, which were 0 catch percentage and 1 fumble in 3 games.

He's still miles from what a top 10 pick should do for the team.

 

What's with the tone?
As you've said, he's improved. Shouldn't the expectation be that he'll continue to improve since he improve the previous year?

[Whatever]

(08-14-2019, 01:36 PM)BengalChris Wrote: In other words, 2018 was an improvement over his 2017 stats, which were 0 catch percentage and 1 fumble in 3 games.

He's still miles from what a top 10 pick should do for the team.

 

Going back to the mothership, I don't think I've ever seen a fan root so hard for one of our players to fail as you do with Ross.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-14-2019, 01:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: Going back to the mothership, I don't think I've ever seen a fan root so hard for one of our players to fail as you do with Ross.

Maybe it's secretly Marvin Lewis himself! 

[Whatever]

(08-14-2019, 02:04 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe it's secretly Marvin Lewis himself! 

Dude acts like Ross kicked in his front door, slapped him down, and had a foursome with his wife, his high school sweetheart, and his hall pass while he was lying on the floor in the fetal position sobbing away.

[BengalChris]

(08-14-2019, 01:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: Going back to the mothership, I don't think I've ever seen a fan root so hard for one of our players to fail as you do with Ross.

I've never rooted for Ross to fail. Repeatedly I've said that I wished he'd get it together and play well.

All I've ever done is point out his stats. And I'm not alone in that.

The Ross is great crowd only put forth excuses and blame to others.