Internal Free Agency / Extensions

[*ochocincos*]

(01-03-2020, 07:12 PM)I_C_DeadPeople Wrote: Backup RB - dime a dozen far too much money for that roster spot. 

And was someone putting Billings in for $9M per year? Again, way too much

I fully agree, but you have to assume that Bernard was given his extension as a precaution in case Mixon holds out.

Also, I don't know who said Billings for $9 mill a year, but it wasn't me. I'd look to give him $6 mill with a willingness to MAYBE go up to $8 mill depending on what happens with Tupou.

[Okeana]

(01-06-2020, 10:54 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I fully agree, but you have to assume that Bernard was given his extension as a precaution in case Mixon holds out.

Also, I don't know who said Billings for $9 mill a year, but it wasn't me. I'd look to give him $6 mill with a willingness to MAYBE go up to $8 mill depending on what happens with Tupou.

the numbered I picked on players were based on similar positional players both on grade, age, and cross-referencing contracts.  For me, billings it is one of the bigger unknowns on what type of money.  Remember when we invested pretty big contracts on Peko for example and he never once graded as a high as billings and since then the positional spending on even NT/1 tech's has gone up with salary cap so while I would have put him in the 7 mil department, I think he will get a bit more.

Gio is actually an extremely productive and reliable back.  If you look at his career production every year he's consistently above average considering the limited snaps he receives.  I think he's worth every penny he is paid.  It just seems the last two years have been his worst because of a lack of offensive line and coaching consistency. 

.....

on the whole Mixon thing, everyone will have an opinion on the subject but the question is if he's worth the money and u till what point.  Take a look at Mixon's Stats

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3116385/joe-mixon

There are two things I take away from these stats.  First is how underrated he is in the passing game just look at his over 75% completion rate with 3 TD's this year.  The second is how underutilized he is as a player considering his consistency average.  If they just scheme around him more often and work out the Oline issues he could have insane production.

We have him for another year, but I think he can be had at a lower rate if he's signed now, but I am with everyone that if he wants to be among the highest-paid back's your forced to move on.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2020, 11:24 AM)Okeana Wrote: the numbered I picked on players were based on similar positional players both on grade, age, and cross-referencing contracts.  For me, billings it is one of the bigger unknowns on what type of money.  Remember when we invested pretty big contracts on Peko for example and he never once graded as a high as billings and since then the positional spending on even NT/1 tech's has gone up with salary cap so while I would have put him in the 7 mil department, I think he will get a bit more.

Gio is actually an extremely productive and reliable back.  If you look at his career production every year he's consistently above average considering the limited snaps he receives.  I think he's worth every penny he is paid.  It just seems the last two years have been his worst because of a lack of offensive line and coaching consistency. 

.....

on the whole Mixon thing, everyone will have an opinion on the subject but the question is if he's worth the money and u till what point.  Take a look at Mixon's Stats

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3116385/joe-mixon

There are two things I take away from these stats.  First is how underrated he is in the passing game just look at his over 75% completion rate with 3 TD's this year.  The second is how underutilized he is as a player considering his consistency average.  If they just scheme around him more often and work out the Oline issues he could have insane production.

We have him for another year, but I think he can be had at a lower rate if he's signed now, but I am with everyone that if he wants to be among the highest-paid back's your forced to move on.  

Totally understand all your points.

I think people are frustrated with Bernard because they feel he should have played more if he was given that extension.
With that said, if Mixon were to hold out, I'd expect he'd have a (much) higher workload like he had his first few years where he averaged around 1000-1200 yards from scrimmage.

As for Billings, I really like Billings. I'd love for him to stay. But I think the Bengals have a bit more leverage due to Tupou also playing well and Wren being drafted just last year. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bengals do something along the lines of, "Well, this is the offer. Take it or leave it."

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(01-06-2020, 10:54 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I fully agree, but you have to assume that Bernard was given his extension as a precaution in case Mixon holds out.

Also, I don't know who said Billings for $9 mill a year, but it wasn't me. I'd look to give him $6 mill with a willingness to MAYBE go up to $8 mill depending on what happens with Tupou.

Tupou is a RFA.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2020, 01:17 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Tupou is a RFA.

I know that. That's why I said depending on what happens with him.
The team is very likely to keep him, and it will be at a fraction of the cost of Billings.

[Sled21]

I don't see them letting Billings go, he's just now starting to play well.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

Yeah, Tupou is going nowhere; him and Billings are your backup NT and NT, respectively.

I'd sign Billings to something like a 3 year deal, 23 million, 12 guaranteed or whatever is the going rate; solidify the position for the next few seasons, as he's shown to be superb against the run and push the pocket.

It's an unpopular opinion, but I think Wren and Andrew Brown are your backups at UT and Brown can be the swing DE/DT (even though I feel he shouldn't be at DE).

That makes Glasgow the odd man out, but if they were willing to go 10 at the position, he could be retained (but I don't know what you'd do with 3 NTs on the roster, personally).

I think Wren will be a good one, down the line; not as good as Geno, mind you, but perhaps a poor-man's Wilkinson (just a gut feeling; not basing that on anything).

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-01-2020, 08:40 PM)Okeana Wrote: Estimated cap before any extensions/signings (including Trey Hopkins) = $61,068,262


Cuts/Trades


Andy Dalton - 17.7mil - Trade
Cordy Glenn - 9.25mil - Trade
Dre Kirkpatrick - 8.45mil - cut (more if you can secure any trade)


Extensions


Trey Hopkins - 3 yr/ 20.4m  - cap hit 6.8m
Joe Mixon - 3 yr/36m  - 12m yr - 8m signing - 18m guar - cap hit 3.7m 2020 ( rookie contract)  11.3m 2021
WJIII - 4 yr/46m   -  11.5m yr - 8m signing - 23m guar - cap hit 11.9m


(Joe Mixon and WJ3 will play out their rookie contracts with the extension added after next year)   


Sign


AJ Green - 2yr / 22m -  11m yr -  7m signing bonus - 14.5m guar - cap hit 11m
Darqueze Dennard - 3yr / 18.9m - 6.3m yr - 6m bonus - 9.35 guar - cap hit 6.3m
Tyler Eifert - 2 yr / 17m  -  8.5m yr  -  6m bonus -  8.5m guar -  cap hit 8.5m
Andrew Billings - 5 yr / 45m - 9m yr - 12m bonus - 22m guar - cap hit 9m



Cap Before Free Agency/Draft  -  $51,234,929


Estimated Draft Cap (based on 2019 cardinals)  -  17m


Cap After Draft = $34,234,912






..............................................




In Summary, these are the big moves internally I would make moving into the 2020 season.   I do not believe in the Rent to own philosophy of player contracts in terms of franchise tags or single-year deals.  If your going to lock a player in give yourself wiggle room to trade that player towards the end of their contract to find value. 

When it comes to rookie contract extensions my philosophy is that you lock a player in before their last contract year and ultimately save yourself money over time because of positional contract inflation from year to year.  The benefit to the player is that while they won't make top dollar they can receive a bonus in cash a year earlier and it shifts injury concerns from the player to the team.  For Example, WJ3 could possibly make more money with a better performance next year and his 5th-year option, but if his play continues to decline because of the injury or gets injured again he could make significantly less.

I am no NFL contract expert so if something is off or my math is off,  feel free to let me know.

Thanks

I like it Okeana. Looks likely to me as well for the most part, very realistic. Mixon, Billings and of course Dennard are the 
players I think we need to bring back the most. People dog on overpaying a RB but this guy is special and Burrow will 
need as many good playmakers around him as possible. Mixon is as good of a checkdown RB as you can get, just need to
use him more in the passing game.

Billings is just growing into his own and becoming that intimidating force that I thought he would be.

Dennard finally shown up and became his first round status this season.