Lawson vs. Dunlap

[*SHRacerX*]

To focus on what can be done NOW to improve the team on the field, one glaring opportunity to me is by giving more snaps to Carl Lawson and less to Carlos Dunlap. Lawson seems to be on a mission to prove he is a three-down player. He also looks like he spend the offseason getting even bigger and stronger while Dunlap got a spare tire (that's impressive given that he is 6'7").

I don't have the PFF access, other than what is free, but Lawson has been making more plays than anyone on the defensive line. He currently has 3 sacks, and a forced fumble. He is averaging around 56% of the snaps on defense. His PFF rating in 2020 is 74.7.

Carlos Dunlap has zero sacks or forced fumbles, and played a whopping 82% of the snaps against Philly. His PFF rating in 2020 is 49.6.

Despite my dig at Dunlap's body, I know he has been a perennial slow starter (more conditioning questions?) and I think it would actually help Dunlap if he lost some snaps to Lawson. Not only is Lawson tearing it up, but Dunlap might be more effective with more rest. And teams throw with the most efficiency (typically) on first down, and many teams throw on first down so not having your best pass rusher out there on first down is just stupid (at least our coaches are consistent). Lawson has also shown he is serious about being a three down player and has done very well against the run.

Thoughts?

[Sled21]

I know several of the big runs Philly ripped off were because Dunlap tried to go around the tackle and got pushed too deep in the backfield, opening up the run lane he is supposed to be shutting down. People talk about Geno, but Carlos is not showing much this year.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(09-30-2020, 09:32 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: To focus on what can be done NOW to improve the team on the field, one glaring opportunity to me is by giving more snaps to Carl Lawson and less to Carlos Dunlap. Lawson seems to be on a mission to prove he is a three-down player. He also looks like he spend the offseason getting even bigger and stronger while Dunlap got a spare tire (that's impressive given that he is 6'7").

I don't have the PFF access, other than what is free, but Lawson has been making more plays than anyone on the defensive line. He currently has 3 sacks, and a forced fumble. He is averaging around 56% of the snaps on defense. His PFF rating in 2020 is 74.7.

Carlos Dunlap has zero sacks or forced fumbles, and played a whopping 82% of the snaps against Philly. His PFF rating in 2020 is 49.6.

Despite my dig at Dunlap's body, I know he has been a perennial slow starter (more conditioning questions?) and I think it would actually help Dunlap if he lost some snaps to Lawson. Not only is Lawson tearing it up, but Dunlap might be more effective with more rest. And teams throw with the most efficiency (typically) on first down, and many teams throw on first down so not having your best pass rusher out there on first down is just stupid (at least our coaches are consistent). Lawson has also shown he is serious about being a three down player and has done very well against the run.

Thoughts?

2 TFL in the Philly game, a PD, led the team with 9 tackles, would've had a sack if not for being dragged back on Wentz's TD run.

I'd say he played remarkably-well and since the penalty wasn't called and there was no sack, he would've been dinged egregiously on the PFF side (further proof how much they've fallen).

He didn't have a great week 2 (and he barely played, for whatever reason) but he had a very good game on Sunday.

I expect an even better game this weekend.

(09-30-2020, 10:11 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I know several of the big runs Philly ripped off were because Dunlap tried to go around the tackle and got pushed too deep in the backfield, opening up the run lane he is supposed to be shutting down. People talk about Geno, but Carlos is not showing much this year.

I didn't see what you saw at all; wanna bet that the above you're mentioning happened only once the entire game?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Dunlap has a serious chance at being a cap cut in the offseason.

Next year is the final year of his deal, he'll be 32, and have a cap hit of $13.5m vs only $2.25m in dead money if he's cut.

If they could put that savings directly towards a TOP tier FA OL (Thurney, Linsley, Stanley, or Bakhtiari) then I would be fine with that. Then spend a 3rd on a DE in the draft.

[Au165]

I would love to move forward with Hubbard and Lawson as the guys, but I just can't trust Lawson to stay healthy. If you wanted to get really bold you could move Dunlap and roll with Lawson fulltime but I don't see the organization doing that. I know a cousing of Dunlaps though who actually thoguht they were going to move him last year from what he had heard so take that for what it's worth.

[Yojimbo]

Is Lawson in a contract year?

[Wes Mantooth]

Carlos Dunlap is by far the most overrated player on the team, and has been for years. (Followed closely by Joe Mixon.)

***Note: Please know that overrated does not mean bad. It means overrated.

I'm all for giving Carl Lawson as much work as we can, as he may actually have a future here. And we really need to start considering how we want to build this team out. His contract is up after the season, so the more we can see of him the better.

Carlos Dunlap on the other hand is an obvious cap casualty. There is no way this team can justify paying him 13 mil next season. The only other hope would be that he blows up mid season, where he rattles off his typical 2 or 3 game stretch of actually playing to hsi contract worth, and you can ship him off to some injury/covid ridden team, in desperate need, for a late round pick.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-30-2020, 10:36 AM)Au165 Wrote: I would love to move forward with Hubbard and Lawson as the guys, but I just can't trust Lawson to stay healthy. If you wanted to get really bold you could move Dunlap and roll with Lawson fulltime but I don't see the organization doing that. I know a cousing of Dunlaps though who actually thoguht they were going to move him last year from what he had heard so take that for what it's worth.

Which is 100% a reasonable thought. That said, I still think you still need to add a DE in the draft regardless if Lawson does stays healthy and you do re-sign him.

(09-30-2020, 10:45 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Is Lawson in a contract year?

Yes

So it remains to be seen if some team in the offseason ignores his health red flags and wants to overpay him in FA to play 80% of the defensive snaps.

I do want Lawson back, but only if he's being paid like talented (but heath-wise unreliable) role player backup he is.

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-30-2020, 10:50 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Carlos Dunlap is by far the most overrated player on the team, and has been for years. (Followed closely by Joe Mixon.)

***Note: Please know that overrated does not mean bad. It means overrated.

I'm all for giving Carl Lawson as much work as we can, as he may actually have a future here.  And we really need to start considering how we want to build this team out.  His contract is up after the season, so the more we can see of him the better.

Carlos Dunlap on the other hand is an obvious cap casualty.  There is no way this team can justify paying him 13 mil next season.  The only other hope would be that he blows up mid season, where he rattles off his typical 2 or 3 game stretch of actually playing to hsi contract worth, and you can ship him off to some injury/covid ridden team, in desperate need, for a late round pick.

I guess we need more overrated guys on the defense.  If the rest of the defense played like Lawson Sunday, it would certainly not have ended in a tie.  

[*ochocincos*]

(09-30-2020, 10:17 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: 2 TFL in the Philly game, a PD, led the team with 9 tackles, would've had a sack if not for being dragged back on Wentz's TD run.

I'd say he played remarkably-well and since the penalty wasn't called and there was no sack, he would've been dinged egregiously on the PFF side (further proof how much they've fallen).

He didn't have a great week 2 (and he barely played, for whatever reason) but he had a very good game on Sunday.

I expect an even better game this weekend.


I didn't see what you saw at all; wanna bet that the above you're mentioning happened only once the entire game?

You know, Dunlap has gotten quite a lot of PDs over the years.
This is just my opinion, but I think I'm getting less impressed with a PD by a DL nowadays than I used to be.
I think the reason is because a PD is essentially the same as a missed or dropped throw.
It stops the clock, no negative yardage.
While a PD is obviously better than a completion, a sack or FF is obviously better.
I wish Dunlap would focus more (or improve on) getting to the passer vs trying to block passes.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(09-30-2020, 10:59 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You know, Dunlap has gotten quite a lot of PDs over the years.
This is just my opinion, but I think I'm getting less impressed with a PD by a DL nowadays than I used to be.
I think the reason is because a PD is essentially the same as a missed or dropped throw.
It stops the clock, no negative yardage.
While a PD is obviously better than a completion, a sack or FF is obviously better.
I wish Dunlap would focus more (or improve on) getting to the passer vs trying to block passes.

Of course, it's all contextual, but that play was a quick pass by Wentz, IIRC; I don't think he would've been able to get to the QB in the time it took to make the throw.

[Au165]

(09-30-2020, 10:59 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You know, Dunlap has gotten quite a lot of PDs over the years.
This is just my opinion, but I think I'm getting less impressed with a PD by a DL nowadays than I used to be.
I think the reason is because a PD is essentially the same as a missed or dropped throw.
It stops the clock, no negative yardage.
While a PD is obviously better than a completion, a sack or FF is obviously better.
I wish Dunlap would focus more (or improve on) getting to the passer vs trying to block passes.

Batting down balls at the line of scrimmage is a huge deal. You don't know what that ball would have been had it not been batted down, maybe it is a touchdown maybe it is a drop but you know it won't be anything because it was batted down. J.J. Watt gets a ton of praise for this but Dunlap isn't far behind Watt in this skill (or in batted balls career-wise), and it is a skill often taught but rarely done as well as Dunlap does it. The idea isn't to stop rushing, the idea is that if you can't get home then you watch the QB and time your jump to match his release.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-30-2020, 11:48 AM)Au165 Wrote: Batting down balls at the line of scrimmage is a huge deal. You don't know what that ball would have been had it not been batted down, maybe it is a touchdown maybe it is a drop but you know it won't be anything because it was batted down. J.J. Watt gets a ton of praise for this but Dunlap isn't far behind Watt in this skill (or in batted balls career-wise), and it is a skill often taught but rarely done as well as Dunlap does it. The idea isn't to stop rushing, the idea is that if you can't get home then you watch the QB and time your jump to match his release.

You don't need to try to explain that to me, I fully am aware of it.
You hit basically on the bolded point I was making - Dunlap needs to "get home" more.

Edit - You mention JJ Watt with batted passes. He actually has fewer than Dunlap (55 v 59). However, Watt has 16.5 more sacks than Dunlap in 36 fewer games played.

[Au165]

(09-30-2020, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You don't need to try to explain that to me, I fully am aware of it.
You hit basically on the bolded point I was making - Dunlap needs to "get home" more.

Edit - You mention JJ Watt with batted passes. He actually has fewer than Dunlap (55 v 59). However, Watt has 16.5 more sacks than Dunlap in 36 fewer games played.

One is not related to the other, he could not get home and then not bat balls I guess. Your first post made it seem as if his inability to get home was tied to his skill of batting balls in your mind but in reality they aren't related in any way. If he could just magically get better at winning pass-rushing reps he would have cost a lot more lol.

Yea, I was using a per game stat for his batted balls to keep it a fair comparison since he had played more games. Either way, no one is saying he is JJ Watt just that one guy gets a ton of praise for doing it (JJ SWATT) versus another guy who it appears is being criticized for it.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-30-2020, 11:58 AM)Au165 Wrote: One is not related to the other, he could not get home and then not bat balls I guess. Your first post made it seem as if his inability to get home was tied to his skill of batting balls in your mind but in reality they aren't related in any way. If he could just magically get better at winning pass-rushing reps he would have cost a lot more lol.

Yea, I was using a per game stat for his batted balls to keep it a fair comparison since he had played more games. Either way, no one is saying he is JJ Watt just that one guy gets a ton of praise for doing it (JJ SWATT) versus another guy who it appears is being criticized for it.

I just want the Bengals' top DE to get more sacks and cause more turnovers.
I feel like with him only having double-digit sacks once in his career, he's "settled" for jumping up and getting PDs.

[CJD]

The big free agents in the 2021 off season are:
William Jackson III
Carl Lawson
Kevin Huber
AJ Green
Randy Bullock
Brandon Wilson
Mackensie Alexander
Clark Harris
Alex Erickson
LeShaun Sims
Josh Bynes
Shawn Williams

The above order is the priority for re-signing them, in my opinion. Lawson has always been our wild card on the defensive line. Showing true game changing ability when he's healthy, but often incapable of being healthy. I would give him a 3 year deal with high value but low guarantees and see how he performs in the next year or 2. I don't know if he'd go for that, but that'd be my starting point.

WJIII is my top priority because our CB group is already really thin and WJIII has shown legitimate shutdown capability in the past and, without looking at the numbers, my eyes tell me he has performed well in the first three games of this year. He's remained relatively healthy since he rookie year and I would welcome him back with a 4 year contract easy.

Huber will likely be an easy re-sign but a critical one, as he's one of the best punters in the league even though he's pretty old.
I list Green as 4th but, honestly, unless he improves over the course of the year he will continue to fall down the list.

Three of the remaining priority free agents are via 1 year contracts that have, so far, worked out relatively well (well enough to justify re-signing, in my opinion) with Alexander, Bynes and Sims (Bynes is the lowest of the three because we do have a young group of high potential linebackers, so I understand if he loses his starting role by the end of the year and is no longer needed next year, but I still think his leadership will help the young guys).

And then there's Bullock, who we could re-sign and probably should, Wilson, who is the best returner in the league, Erickson, who's a solid punt returner and spot play WR, Harris, who is our long snapper (why fix what isn't broken) and then Williams who...we probably don't need. He has been replaced by Bell and I don't think they're using him much in a reserve role so we could afford to lose him, I think. But he's still a good player so he belongs on the list.

All of our other free agents are pretty much not required. Guys like John Ross, Cethan Carter, Alex Redmond, Torry McTyer, Mike Thomas, Greg Mabin and Jordan Evans can all go with little or no consequence.

[lone bengal]

Far as the future of the DE position I only see Hubbard as a building block moving forward. Dunlap is obviously older. I wouldn’t overpay for Lawson due to his injury history and the fact that he isn’t a 3 down player because he’s not great against the run. I could also see a 3-4 team paying more for Lawson. Corner back is a more important position, Jackson III and Alexander are both free agents next season. Outside of giving up some big plays to Odell Beckham, Jackson III has been pretty good, still on the fence about resigning him. Gonna be a tough offseason with are offensive line needs and having no established corners on the roster besides Waynes.

[Sled21]

(09-30-2020, 10:17 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I didn't see what you saw at all; wanna bet that the above you're mentioning happened only once the entire game?

Naw, no bet because you would lose. The reason I say you would lose is because the first time I noticed it was when the announcer mentioned it and pointed it out, and then I started watching for it. Happened at least a couple more times after that.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(09-30-2020, 01:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Naw, no bet because you would lose. The reason I say you would lose is because the first time I noticed it was when the announcer mentioned it and pointed it out, and then I started watching for it. Happened at least a couple more times after that.

I don't want to bet lol, it's just a figure of speech :p

Again, if it happened multiple times, could very well be because there were uncalled holds or other shenanigans; watch Wentz's TD, it's beyond blatant.

[fredtoast]

(09-30-2020, 10:50 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Carlos Dunlap is by far the most overrated player on the team, and has been for years. 

Dunlap has been one of the top DEs in the entire league over the last decade

Rank among DE's 2010-2019

PDs...………..1st
QB hits...…..2nd
TDs...………..3rd
Total tckls….4th
Sacks...……..6th
FF...………….7th
FR...………....8th