11-01-2021, 05:52 PM
(11-01-2021, 05:43 PM)Au165 Wrote: What's interesting is he is top 5 in INT % but also #1 in TD% (tied with Stafford). Taking that one step further his 8.1% TD percentage is the highest since Mahomes's 2018 MVP year (8.6%), and pretty substantially at that. I think, and this will sound weird, that I am okay with the interceptions as long as he keeps the same TD%, where we get in trouble is when that TD% comes down to around league average and the INT% doesn't drop with it.
One interesting note, after the red zone int last week Burrow said he threw that ball because with our defense he trusts them and is willing to take more chances. It's an interesting thought that I am not opposed to, again because the payoff has come at an equally high rate but it's something to watch as the year goes on.
I believe the highest recent TD% was A-Rod with 9.1% last season. However, that is still a great point and lines up with what I have in my spreadsheet. Despite such a high INT%, I believe he will rate out as a top 5 QB after this week. His EPA per attempt is 11th, I believe, but his total EPA is 8th. All of this despite the interceptions. The rest of his game is good enough that he is offsetting it with an absurd TD%. I think part of my frustration is coming from knowing how well we would be doing IF he cut them down. However, given the circumstances, it isn’t the most awful thing.
I do think he is going to improve in this area as he continues progressing, he didn’t struggle with picks in college or last season. The data might be limited there, but still.
