The regression of Jessie Bates

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-02-2021, 06:01 AM)sonofstat Wrote: I would be MUCH more worried if he had 3 bad seasons then in 7 games in a contract year was suddenly great.

I mean, he did have a pretty bad 2019. 14.5% missed tackle rate, 100.1 QB Rating allowed.

If you put stock in PFF, he had a 61.2 in 2019, and he has a 61.4 in 2021. So this year isn't actually a regression so much as a return to norm and it's 2020 that was the oddity.

So far it's been... Good Year, Bad Year, Great Year, Mediocre Year.

Really not sure what to expect from Bates in the future if you sign him long term which is why all offseason I was against paying him as a Top-3 S. I still think the answer is to franchise tag him for 2022 and see if that sheds any more light on what you have in Bates. There's plenty of value in an above average safety. It's just $9m/yr value rather than $17m/yr value.

Funny thing is I think I would have been fine with $12m/yr this offseason, but he wanted top safety money and now I think $12m/yr is an overpay. Offer him a 4yr/$36m deal in the offseason and if he turns it down, tag him.