Can We Make A Run With This O-Line

[KillerGoose]

(11-21-2021, 11:48 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  Fourth quarter numbers are skewed some by teams with a big lead just milking clock.

2.  I agree that running the ball in general does not wear down a defense, but I have watched Titans games and a freak like Henry does seem to take a toll on the defense.  Numbers may not back it up, but Henry is a different type of RB.

I accounted for this and only brought back data where the game was within 10 points. I checked the data on even tighter scoring margins, and the results were roughly the same. For Henry specifically, his best quarter is the second quarter and it isn't even close. He completely dominates in the second quarter. This is followed by the 4th and third quarter, but again, nowhere near how he performs in the second. Here are the numbers for him, sorted by EPA per rush. This is for games where the score differential is <= 10 points.



Henry does seem to be a back that starts slow and then gets going. There is no doubt that he is better in the third and fourth than he is in the first, but his prime is the second.