Can We Make A Run With This O-Line

[fredtoast]

(11-19-2021, 11:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Nah, he just sucked outside of his rookie year. 

It was amazing how his production nose dived.  But if you want to talk about "eyeball test" Hill sure looked like a perennial ProBowl/AllPro type playerhis rookie year. He would break tackles and then run away from smaller DBs.

Over the last 9 games of 2014 Hill was just as amazing as Chase was the first seven of this year.  Jeremy averaged over 100 yards per game and 6 per carry.  He had 3 runs of 60+ yards and 5 more over 20.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-20-2021, 02:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: It was amazing how his production nose dived.  But if you want to talk about "eyeball test" Hill sure looked like a perennial ProBowl/AllPro type playerhis rookie year. He would break tackles and then run away from smaller DBs.

Over the last 9 games of 2014 Hill was just as amazing as Chase was the first seven of this year.  Jeremy averaged over 100 yards per game and 6 per carry.  He had 3 runs of 60+ yards and 5 more over 20.

Yep.  He was a large reason there was so much optimism heading in to 2015.  For the first time in a long time, the Bengals had balance on offense.  They could beat you so many ways.  

Here's to hoping Pollack, Callahan, and ZT can find some magic in the 2nd (almost) half and get the run game going.   I actually think is has been pretty solid, but ZT has fallen back to his reliance on the passing game and Burrow is paying the price for it. 

[KillerGoose]

(11-20-2021, 11:43 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Yep.  He was a large reason there was so much optimism heading in to 2015.  For the first time in a long time, the Bengals had balance on offense.  They could beat you so many ways.  

Here's to hoping Pollack, Callahan, and ZT can find some magic in the 2nd (almost) half and get the run game going.   I actually think is has been pretty solid, but ZT has fallen back to his reliance on the passing game and Burrow is paying the price for it. 

I think part of the reason ZT has relied on passing is because the run game has kind of stunk. It is well below average, Mixon has decent numbers because of his volume but he and the line aren't really playing all that well. On the other hand, the passing game has been quite strong by most measures other than EPA. For the run game, here is Cincinnati's ranks...

EPA per rush (23rd)
Yards per carry (22nd)
Success Rate (25th)
Explosive Plays (27th)
TD% (14th)

And for the passing game...

EPA per pass (15th)
Yards per attempt (1st)
Success Rate (9th)
Explosive Plays (5th)
Passer Rating (4th)
TD% (1st)

It makes sense that ZT wants to rely on the pass, it's the only thing working. I'd be a little frustrated if he ran just to run when it isn't working. That doesn't do anything. The main issue is that Burrow has really been playing risky ball, and that works when he is offsetting the turnovers with touchdowns. The problem is when he doesn't hit those touchdowns. The passing game is the only thing that works, and when it isn't working, Cincinnati is B A D. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-20-2021, 12:58 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think part of the reason ZT has relied on passing is because the run game has kind of stunk. It is well below average, Mixon has decent numbers because of his volume but he and the line aren't really playing all that well. On the other hand, the passing game has been quite strong by most measures other than EPA. For the run game, here is Cincinnati's ranks...

EPA per rush (23rd)
Yards per carry (22nd)
Success Rate (25th)
Explosive Plays (27th)
TD% (14th)

And for the passing game...

EPA per pass (15th)
Yards per attempt (1st)
Success Rate (9th)
Explosive Plays (5th)
Passer Rating (4th)
TD% (1st)

It makes sense that ZT wants to rely on the pass, it's the only thing working. I'd be a little frustrated if he ran just to run when it isn't working. That doesn't do anything. The main issue is that Burrow has really been playing risky ball, and that works when he is offsetting the turnovers with touchdowns. The problem is when he doesn't hit those touchdowns. The passing game is the only thing that works, and when it isn't working, Cincinnati is B A D. 

I completely get what you are saying, but the problem is the opposing defenses don't have to respect the run and they are keying on the passing game, and that is getting Burrow hit way too much.  How B A D is Cincinnati without Burrow?

I am not saying they need to be a run-first team, with a higher % on the run, but even 2-3 yard runs early in a game have a way of opening things up and they also pay dividends in the fourth quarter.  

Ask any offensive linemen what he would rather be doing:  run block or pass block.  They will tell you run block every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  It motivates them to DRIVE someone rather than retreat and catch someone.  

Mixon has been one of the highest rated PFF players on the team, especially his running scores.  He is averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  Derrick Henry is averaging 4.3.  The difference is the Titans keep pounding Henry and he eventually breaks one.  It also, as previously mentioned, really wears down opposing defenders.  I know there is about a 20 lb difference between Henry and Mixon, but trust me, if you are a 185 lb DB, and you have to tackle Mixon and then sprint after Higgins or Chase the next play, you are happier when Mixon isn't getting carries.

Burrow has also been lethal out of play-action.  He may love empty, but I think if they want to keep him healthy, running and more play-action is the key.

Two things I hope to see out of this offense this week:   A few more carries for Mixon and more high % targets for Boyd. Grind them down, keep their offense off the field.  

[KillerGoose]

(11-21-2021, 09:38 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I completely get what you are saying, but the problem is the opposing defenses don't have to respect the run and they are keying on the passing game, and that is getting Burrow hit way too much.  How B A D is Cincinnati without Burrow?

I am not saying they need to be a run-first team, with a higher % on the run, but even 2-3 yard runs early in a game have a way of opening things up and they also pay dividends in the fourth quarter.  

Ask any offensive linemen what he would rather be doing:  run block or pass block.  They will tell you run block every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  It motivates them to DRIVE someone rather than retreat and catch someone.  

Mixon has been one of the highest rated PFF players on the team, especially his running scores.  He is averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  Derrick Henry is averaging 4.3.  The difference is the Titans keep pounding Henry and he eventually breaks one.  It also, as previously mentioned, really wears down opposing defenders.  I know there is about a 20 lb difference between Henry and Mixon, but trust me, if you are a 185 lb DB, and you have to tackle Mixon and then sprint after Higgins or Chase the next play, you are happier when Mixon isn't getting carries.

Burrow has also been lethal out of play-action.  He may love empty, but I think if they want to keep him healthy, running and more play-action is the key.

Two things I hope to see out of this offense this week:   A few more carries for Mixon and more high % targets for Boyd. Grind them down, keep their offense off the field.  

Defenses always have to respect the run, if the threat of a run exists. This means if a RB is on the field, they have to respect him. If they don't play their run fits, then all of a sudden you have a no-named RB running wild on you because there are running lanes. This is the whole conversation based around running success and passing success. They don't correlate. For every good passing team that has a good running game, there is a good passing team that has a bad running game. Hell, look no further than Cincinnati for that one. The Rams are another good example. They are independent of each other. 

To your point regarding Henry, I will say that Henry was being a little overrated this season. He wasn't the best RB in the league when he was healthy. His eye-popping numbers simply come from the sheer amount of times he touched the ball. He was on pace for 465 carries this season, comfortably beating the all-time record. Even disregarding the extra game, we has on pace to beat it by 20 carries. The efficiency wasn't there, though, and that is incredibly important. Even weeks 1-6, Chubb and Taylor were playing better football than Henry. The idea that running wears down a defense is conventional logic that doesn't really hold true. I'm going back to 2015 until current for this dataset, but the second quarter is the best rushing quarter by most metrics, followed by third and fourth and finally first. However, the differences are miniscule and not really indicative of anything. Here is the screenshot.



You can see that the numbers are all over the place. The difference between the first and fourth quarter on EPA per play is 0.0002. The first quarter actually has a better rushing success rate than the fourth quarter, and a higher YPC. The fourth quarter has a higher TD percentage than all of them. Nothing really here to say any of these are better than the others aside from the EPA per rush being significantly better in the second than other quarters. 

I do agree that more play-action would be good, and I would love to see Mixon touch the ball more but in the passing game. He is a lethal receiver and is incredibly valuable in that aspect. Plus, he has also struggled with nagging injuries, so it would help take the beating off of him a little bit. 

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2021, 11:43 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: You can see that the numbers are all over the place. The difference between the first and fourth quarter on EPA per play is 0.0002. The first quarter actually has a better rushing success rate than the fourth quarter, and a higher YPC. The fourth quarter has a higher TD percentage than all of them. Nothing really here to say any of these are better than the others aside from the EPA per rush being significantly better in the second than other quarters. 

1.  Fourth quarter numbers are skewed some by teams with a big lead just milking clock.

2.  I agree that running the ball in general does not wear down a defense, but I have watched Titans games and a freak like Henry does seem to take a toll on the defense.  Numbers may not back it up, but Henry is a different type of RB.

[KillerGoose]

(11-21-2021, 11:48 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  Fourth quarter numbers are skewed some by teams with a big lead just milking clock.

2.  I agree that running the ball in general does not wear down a defense, but I have watched Titans games and a freak like Henry does seem to take a toll on the defense.  Numbers may not back it up, but Henry is a different type of RB.

I accounted for this and only brought back data where the game was within 10 points. I checked the data on even tighter scoring margins, and the results were roughly the same. For Henry specifically, his best quarter is the second quarter and it isn't even close. He completely dominates in the second quarter. This is followed by the 4th and third quarter, but again, nowhere near how he performs in the second. Here are the numbers for him, sorted by EPA per rush. This is for games where the score differential is <= 10 points.



Henry does seem to be a back that starts slow and then gets going. There is no doubt that he is better in the third and fourth than he is in the first, but his prime is the second. 

[Emeritus]

(11-08-2021, 12:17 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: that's putting it VERY lightly. An average interior would be a massive improvement

Hopkins is a dumpster fire, and whoever's at RG is also currently bad at the moment

They play much better as a unit with Jackson as the starting RG imo. I really didn't think that he played so bad as to be benched . I'm not sure if hes injured or just buried in the depth chart at this point.

[Whatever]

(11-21-2021, 09:38 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I completely get what you are saying, but the problem is the opposing defenses don't have to respect the run and they are keying on the passing game, and that is getting Burrow hit way too much.  How B A D is Cincinnati without Burrow?

I am not saying they need to be a run-first team, with a higher % on the run, but even 2-3 yard runs early in a game have a way of opening things up and they also pay dividends in the fourth quarter.  

Ask any offensive linemen what he would rather be doing:  run block or pass block.  They will tell you run block every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  It motivates them to DRIVE someone rather than retreat and catch someone.  

Mixon has been one of the highest rated PFF players on the team, especially his running scores.  He is averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  Derrick Henry is averaging 4.3.  The difference is the Titans keep pounding Henry and he eventually breaks one.  It also, as previously mentioned, really wears down opposing defenders.  I know there is about a 20 lb difference between Henry and Mixon, but trust me, if you are a 185 lb DB, and you have to tackle Mixon and then sprint after Higgins or Chase the next play, you are happier when Mixon isn't getting carries.

Burrow has also been lethal out of play-action.  He may love empty, but I think if they want to keep him healthy, running and more play-action is the key.

Two things I hope to see out of this offense this week:   A few more carries for Mixon and more high % targets for Boyd. Grind them down, keep their offense off the field.  

5 of Burrow's 11 interceptions have come on play action.  He's also been sacked on 8 of 73 play action Dropbacks.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(11-19-2021, 09:29 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I was a bit behind on responses to new threads, and I have not read all the other responses yet, but here goes:

They absolutely can.  This offense was trending to put up close to 30 a game before the Cleveland debacle, and while Ward made a great play, most of the wounds were self-inflicted.

I am very curious about sitting Carman for Adeniji.  Maybe his back is acting up again and he was trying to just fight through it, but for a rookie offensive linemen going against some real talent early on, I saw flashes of real power and think (not surprisingly) is his biggest issue was pass blocking but when the Bengals were more run-heavy, he didn't stand out in a negative way.  In fact, at least one game, he was the highest rated linemen.

I remember hearing that Adeniji was being looked at as Center.  We haven't really seem much of Hill, and maybe Adeniji could be an answer there long-term.  The coaches seem to love the guy.  I think Center is kind of a waste of his talents, and would rather see him get a look at RT.  But then I think of the big wildcard in all of this:  D'Ante Smith.  That guy is built as a tackle.  You simply can't teach his length and agility.  If he can get a shot this year at RT, maybe you groom him to replace Reiff there next year.  Although I would love to see Reiff return one more year. 

Spain has been a steal.  He's tough as nails and is our best option at LG.  

Jonas has stayed healthy and is a solid LT.  

There is not a Pro Bowler on the line as it sits, but as long as there isn't a "turd in the punch bowl", then they should be able to operate at al high level.  Right now, Hopkins is a big weakness and Carman started to have issues at RG, in pass protection.  Maybe with the bye week and extra rest, both Hopkins and Adeniji step up and the line has a solid effort against the Raiders.  

Hopkins is this era's Vinnie Rey. A guy that, on almost every other team, would have been cut in their first camp, BUT, since they went to Cincinnati in a neglected position group, they stick around. They improve JUST enough to fend off new competition mainly due to knowing the play book and almost all of the incoming competition are 5th round picks or later. They actually have an NFL career that will get them a pension and NFL retiree benefits. Only in Cincinnati.

Hopkins signed in 2014, played his first game in 2016, which was his only appearance of the year. He was poor to bad as a RG and benefited from 1st round pick Billy Price being almost completely useless as an NFL Center. If Price doesn't suck . . . I highly doubt that Hopkins is still a Bengal. He would have been passed by Christian Westermann or Rod Taylor if he stayed at RG.

(11-19-2021, 10:29 AM)TJ528 Wrote: I'll agree that Pac and Burfect were a large part of why we were in the playoffs in the first place.  However, so was Jeremy Hill.  That fumble basically killed his career because I don't remember him doing shit after Cincinnati. If i remember though, Hill never had an issue with fumbling.  So I have no issue with the play calling.  

As f'ar as the flip of emotions, I'll give that game killed me in 2015 and probably cause me to have a more realistic attitude towards this organization.  However, I also watched the 1989 Super Bowl, where Louis Billups dropped a sure fire INT that would've ended the game.  The ball was in his chest. You couldn't have the ball thrown to you any better and put on a platter.  Next play, John Taylor for the TD.  That was truly heart breaking. 

The Hill fumble was pure stupidity and selfishness. I put that play up there with that moron Brandon Bostick, who was supposed to block for Jordy Nelson on that NFC Championship game onside kick in Seattle, but decided before the kick that he was going to be the one to catch the ball. He said some bullshit after the game like "I saw the ball and tried to make a play" but watch the replay and ask yourself "Is this person focused on trying to block and the ball got in his way? Or is this person looking for the ball so his teammates can all pat him on the back because he made the play that finished off the game?" That's how legendary the Hill fumble is but he is shielded by the fact that Burfict and Pacman lost their minds at the worst time.

Watch Hill's fumble again. There was too much time left to just kneel. If the Bengals get one first down, THEN the game is over. Hill went into multiple defenders WITH ONE SHOULDER LOWERED TO DELIVER A BLOW . . . this left him with only one hand on the ball when holding onto the ball should have been his most important priority.

In my opinion, because I've had team mates that were very very similar to this, but it looked to me that he wanted to plow guys over, have his Marshawn "Beast Mode" moment, and have all of his team mates pat him on the back because HE killed off the game. He wanted the feeling of "I . . . won this playoff game" or the simple joy of telling his friends back home "Did you see me blast those fools to finish off that game?".

Be careful what you wish for.

Billups however, is probably the biggest individual choke moment that I can recall. He didn't have to move. The ball was thrown right to him. But that is typical Bengal fashion. Hold the mighty 49ers to two FGs through three quarters after losing your best defender early on and right after Stanford Jennings gives them the lead late in the 3rd after the game tying FG, the Bengals dropped into their old stand by . . . the infamous prevent defense.

John Taylor 13 yard return to the SF 15 - I was so pumped at this moment. They just took a 7 point lead and had a great ST tackle and then . . .
Pass to Jerry Rice for 31 yards - end of 3rd quarter
Pass to Roger Craig for 40 yards
Billups drops easy interception
Tie game on 14 yard pass to Rice

85 yards on 4 plays in 1:25 of game clock after holding them all game, and Billups could have stopped it.

That's Cincinnati Bengals football right there, sampled by the quick drive TD yesterday by the Raiders. One word synopsis . . . "Frustration".

[fredtoast]

(11-23-2021, 12:36 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Hopkins is this era's Vinnie Rey. A guy that, on almost every other team, would have been cut in their first camp, BUT, since they went to Cincinnati in a neglected position group, they stick around. They improve JUST enough to fend off new competition mainly due to knowing the play book and almost all of the incoming competition are 5th round picks or later. They actually have an NFL career that will get them a pension and NFL retiree benefits. Only in Cincinnati.

So every player on every other team in the league is a star except for guys who play for the Bengals?  Or every othe rteam turns over half of their roster every year?

C'mon, man.

The league is FULL of veterans who are not great but good enough to hold onto their positions for a few years.  Hopkins was never ranked as the worst starting center in the league and there was never a time when half of the starting centers in the league were replaced every year.

[Emeritus]

This unit isn't great and we never thought it would be but consistency is a "MUST" now. The defensive fronts the rest of the way are tough!

https://news.yahoo.com/bengals-bet-young-offensive-linemen-181905005.html

[Housh]

Seeing as our line can’t protect long enough for Burrow to comfortably look for routes down the field no. If we do slide into playoffs i don’t see us beating any of the top AFC teams

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(11-22-2021, 11:14 AM)Whatever Wrote: 5 of Burrow's 11 interceptions have come on play action.  He's also been sacked on 8 of 73 play action Dropbacks.

This!

Until Joe Burrow heals, throws less interceptions, and gets better pass protection up front I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze with respect to the pass. Pushing the ball deep downfield through the air was more effective early in the season but opposing defensive coordinators have figured out the Bengals’ passing attack.

Other than the game against the Ravens the Bengals have been run-first in all big wins this season. I believe that’s the way to go.

[fredtoast]

(12-07-2021, 01:26 AM)Housh Wrote: Seeing as our line can’t protect long enough for Burrow to comfortably look for routes down the field no.

Last I saw Burrow was top ten in time to throw the ball.  And he leads the league in TDs with 30+ air yards.

Our O-line still needs work, but it is not as bad as many people claim.

[Emeritus]

So what do we do now?

[sandwedge]

(01-03-2022, 07:27 PM)Emeritus Wrote:

So what do we do now?

We keep winning.

[LSUfaninTN]

(12-07-2021, 01:26 AM)Housh Wrote: Seeing as our line can’t protect long enough for Burrow to comfortably look for routes down the field no. If we do slide into playoffs i don’t see us beating any of the top AFC teams

OL for you guys is horrible. I honestly wouldn’t mind losing in the first game because yall cannot protect Burrow, as I don’t see yall making it to the super bowl anyway. Need several changes and JB is the franchise. Don’t ruin him.

Yall are now seeing how good Joe is at evading the rush. Not sure if they weren’t letting him run before, but he’s doing a good job of it now. But yall are going to get him killed if this OL play continues.

[SunsetBengal]

Let's not go to snippy little back and forth attacks right now, this is a time to be looking at how the Bengals can get it done, rather than finding ways to assert oneself as somehow "better" than another fan for a previous opinion.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-03-2022, 07:45 PM)LSUfaninTN Wrote: OL for you guys is horrible. I honestly wouldn’t mind losing in the first game because yall cannot protect Burrow, as I don’t see yall making it to the super bowl anyway. Need several changes and JB is the franchise. Don’t ruin him.

Yall are now seeing how good Joe is at evading the rush. Not sure if they weren’t letting him run before, but he’s doing a good job of it now. But yall are going to get him killed if this OL play continues.

"Y'all"?

Anyway, that LSU line wasn't that good either. We all know it needs improvement, but you haven't been around it seems. Peep those oline rankings over the last three seasons, then compare them to this season. Poor Andy Dalton, and Joe last year would've KILLED to have the line play the Bengals have this season. Dalton was sacked eight times one game against Pitt in 2019.