03-24-2022, 05:31 PM
(03-24-2022, 03:53 PM)basballguy Wrote: You seem to have put some effort into researching this but I think you're underestimating what RBs are capable of. It's hard to believe 1k attempts would be the drop off when just least season there were 2 active players over 3k attempts.
I don't think anyone is predicting Derrick Henry to decline this season. He's at 1400 or so attempts.
I thought the general consensus is RBs "peak" at 25 or so. I'm inclined to believe Mixon has better odds of having his best ever season (versus beginning a decline in production).
https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/
It isn't age but carries that have more to do with it from what I am finding, though both factor in. To your point about Henry, he was having one of the least efficient seasons of his career up until his injury in 2021. He had eye popping numbers, but he also had eye popping carries (on pace for 460+). Coming off of a broken foot with 1400 carries at age 28, I do think he will continue his decline. The thing is, he is declining from 5+ YPC and a 2k yard season. He will still be a good RB, but I don't think he will be the Henry we are familiar with.
Regarding Mixon, I think he will have a career year as well, but that is primarily because he has been running behind some putrid lines for his whole career. Essentially, I am saying that a younger Mixon would likely feast behind this line. I think Mixon now will still do well, but not as well as some people think he will. He is a talented back, but has struggled with injuries and has some mileage on him. That is factoring into my 4.3-ish guess as far as his YPC goes. The correlation isn't perfect, though, so of course he could outperform my guess. I'm just making some predictions and analyzing the data I have. I could probably stand to have a bigger dataset as well.
Finally, you mentioned the backs with over 3000 carries this past season. Frank Gore last played in 2020, but Peterson did play last season. Both were awful, however. Peterson averaged less than 3 yards per carry, and Gore was only at 3.5. At that average, they were genuinely net negatives for their respective teams.
EDIT - I went back and looked. Age and carries have nearly the exact same correlation to YPC. This makes sense, I guess. A player is likely to have a high amount of carries as he ages.
