05-08-2022, 08:23 PM
Baltimore
One exec joked that if the Ravens selected a punter in the first round, analysts would probably applaud Baltimore for smartly zigging when the rest of the league was zagging. Without question, the Ravens’ long-term success has earned them the benefit of the doubt. But there is growing doubt from some who have long held the Ravens in high regard.
“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”
There’s some fear the Ravens lowered their odds for success by using early picks for outlier players at less premium positions: 6-foot-4 safety Kyle Hamilton at 14, undersized center Tyler Linderbaum at 25, injured outside linebacker David Ojabo in the second round and, yes, a punter in the fourth, before anyone else drafted one.
“A lot depends on how you view Linderbaum, because it is beauty in the eye of the beholder with him,” an evaluator said. “There is not a great precedent of guys his size being great players in the league. He is very similar size-wise to Garrett Bradbury, who just got his fifth-year option declined. Kyle Hamilton checked every box except for the athletic component.”
If there were large numbers of 6-4 college safeties failing in the NFL year after year, we would know with greater certainty height was a limiting factor. But few safeties that tall exist at any level. Does that mean the hit rate is far lower for them?
“I’m more bullish on Baltimore, but I can see the skepticism,” an exec said. “While I like a lot of the players they picked, the positions they focused on were kind of weird: strong safety, center, nose tackle, punter, two tight ends. Kyle Hamilton fell and probably for a reason. He is a weird shape, tall and slow. Linderbaum was highly rated, but he’s a center. Ojabo, they got a quote-unquote value pick there, but he might not play. Travis Jones, he is a guy that the analytics loved. His measurables were very good. But his tape was not.”
Trading Hollywood Brown, drafting zero receivers and loading up on tight ends could signal Baltimore doubling down on its run-heavy offense rather than trying to unlock a conventional passing game by surrounding Lamar Jackson with upgraded traditional receiving weaponry.
“They just stick so heavily to their board that if someone is higher than a wide receiver, they are definitely going to take that other person, but they might be a little slow in adjusting to positional importance,” an exec said.
Cincinnati The Bengals picked the right year to be terrible (2020) and the right year to suddenly become a Super Bowl team (2021). That allowed them to pick in the top five when Ja’Marr Chase was available in the draft one year ago and at the other end of the round in this draft, where teams tended to see greater value.
“Even if (veteran safety) Jessie Bates signs the (franchise) tender, Daxton Hill is a good add,” an exec said. “You also notice they made two targeted trade-ups, for the corner (Cam Taylor-Britt) in the second round and the other safety (fifth-rounder Tycen Anderson). I see them going from being maybe the least aggressive team in acquiring players to maybe a little bit middle of the pack, targeting their guys and going and doing it.”
Execs who questioned the quality of the offensive linemen Cincinnati added in free agency noted that the Bengals waited until the fourth round before addressing the position with North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson, the last of four tackles taken in a 26-pick span.
“I like their first pick (Hill), and it makes sense they would target him given their defensive coordinator’s history coaching the secondary,” an exec said. “He could play safety, he could play corner, he could play them all and could be a good nickel for them. He is pretty talented. Taylor-Britt can really run and he is tough, he is physical, but he’s a bit of a tweener, and I’m not sure how that goes ultimately.”
One exec joked that if the Ravens selected a punter in the first round, analysts would probably applaud Baltimore for smartly zigging when the rest of the league was zagging. Without question, the Ravens’ long-term success has earned them the benefit of the doubt. But there is growing doubt from some who have long held the Ravens in high regard.
“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”
There’s some fear the Ravens lowered their odds for success by using early picks for outlier players at less premium positions: 6-foot-4 safety Kyle Hamilton at 14, undersized center Tyler Linderbaum at 25, injured outside linebacker David Ojabo in the second round and, yes, a punter in the fourth, before anyone else drafted one.
“A lot depends on how you view Linderbaum, because it is beauty in the eye of the beholder with him,” an evaluator said. “There is not a great precedent of guys his size being great players in the league. He is very similar size-wise to Garrett Bradbury, who just got his fifth-year option declined. Kyle Hamilton checked every box except for the athletic component.”
If there were large numbers of 6-4 college safeties failing in the NFL year after year, we would know with greater certainty height was a limiting factor. But few safeties that tall exist at any level. Does that mean the hit rate is far lower for them?
“I’m more bullish on Baltimore, but I can see the skepticism,” an exec said. “While I like a lot of the players they picked, the positions they focused on were kind of weird: strong safety, center, nose tackle, punter, two tight ends. Kyle Hamilton fell and probably for a reason. He is a weird shape, tall and slow. Linderbaum was highly rated, but he’s a center. Ojabo, they got a quote-unquote value pick there, but he might not play. Travis Jones, he is a guy that the analytics loved. His measurables were very good. But his tape was not.”
Trading Hollywood Brown, drafting zero receivers and loading up on tight ends could signal Baltimore doubling down on its run-heavy offense rather than trying to unlock a conventional passing game by surrounding Lamar Jackson with upgraded traditional receiving weaponry.
“They just stick so heavily to their board that if someone is higher than a wide receiver, they are definitely going to take that other person, but they might be a little slow in adjusting to positional importance,” an exec said.
Cincinnati The Bengals picked the right year to be terrible (2020) and the right year to suddenly become a Super Bowl team (2021). That allowed them to pick in the top five when Ja’Marr Chase was available in the draft one year ago and at the other end of the round in this draft, where teams tended to see greater value.
“Even if (veteran safety) Jessie Bates signs the (franchise) tender, Daxton Hill is a good add,” an exec said. “You also notice they made two targeted trade-ups, for the corner (Cam Taylor-Britt) in the second round and the other safety (fifth-rounder Tycen Anderson). I see them going from being maybe the least aggressive team in acquiring players to maybe a little bit middle of the pack, targeting their guys and going and doing it.”
Execs who questioned the quality of the offensive linemen Cincinnati added in free agency noted that the Bengals waited until the fourth round before addressing the position with North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson, the last of four tackles taken in a 26-pick span.
“I like their first pick (Hill), and it makes sense they would target him given their defensive coordinator’s history coaching the secondary,” an exec said. “He could play safety, he could play corner, he could play them all and could be a good nickel for them. He is pretty talented. Taylor-Britt can really run and he is tough, he is physical, but he’s a bit of a tweener, and I’m not sure how that goes ultimately.”
