06-29-2022, 12:53 PM
Readers had so many questions about the Bengals as the offseason program came to a close and training camp sits off on the horizon we split the mailbag into two parts. In the first part, I answered questions about Joe Mixon’s usage, Tee Higgins’ future, breakout players, any potential for Odell Beckham Jr. in stripes and realistic expectations for the offensive line.
Here you are curious about the potential for one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, camp battles, August extension candidates and my dream Super Bowl halftime show.
Thanks for all the questions, everybody.
Let’s go.
What are the chances of the Bengals being a top-five defense and offense this year? — Vincent Lewis
We discussed this on “Hear That Podcast Growlin’” last week, but I wanted to expound upon that conversation here.
The quick answer is that the chances are minuscule. That’s not a shot at the Bengals, their potential or the quality of players on both sides. It’s just history.
I used Football Outsiders DVOA as the metric for judging a top-five ranking.
Only three seasons over the last five years have produced a team ranking in the top five in offense and defense. That’s 160 individual seasons, with three hitting the criteria. That’s 1.9 percent.
This prompted me to expand the criteria to just include an offense and defense in the top quarter of the league. That ended up including 10 more seasons on top of the other three.
Keep in mind four of the 13 seasons landed in the Super Bowl and all produced double-digit wins.
DVOA ranking last five years (O/D top 8)
YEAR TEAM OFF DEF RECORD PLAYOFFS
2020
Tampa Bay
3
5
11-5
SB win
2019
Baltimore
1
5
14-2
Divisional
2017
Minnesota
5
1
11-5
NFCCG
2021
Dallas
6
2
12-5
Wild-card
2021
Rams
8
5
12-5
SB win
2021
San Francisco
5
7
10-7
NFCCG
2020
New Orleans
7
2
12-4
Divisional
2019
New Orleans
4
8
13-3
Wild-card
2019
San Francisco
7
2
13-3
SB loss
2018
New Orleans
4
8
13-3
NFCCG
2017
New Orleans
2
6
11-5
Divisional
2017
Rams
6
7
11-5
Wild-card
2017
Philadelphia
7
5
13-3
SB win
Not only have there only been 13 seasons with offense and defense in the top quarter, but only the 2019 Ravens did it in the AFC. With the AFC being even harder and the Bengals schedule projecting to be among the most difficult, those are some long odds to think they could pull this off.
Watch the offense rise to the top five, however, and that’s the recipe for success that would put the Bengals right back in the mix.
All of this is a long way to warn you to temper expectations, and just because both sides of the ball fail to improve dramatically from where it finished last year doesn’t mean anything has gone wrong.
Center Ted Karras (Katie Stratman / USA Today)
Will the run game or pass game improve more because of the O-line improvements? I think Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow both have a chance to be top five at their positions. — Zachary Popp
This one could probably go either way, but I would lean toward the running game. First off, over the last two seasons, La’el Collins has ranked as one of the best run-blocking offensive linemen in football.
He ranked fifth in run-block grade in 2019 and last year eighth among every offensive lineman. The idea of him plowing the back side of the wide zone with Mixon’s absurd ability to cut back with power coming off his blocks provides a dangerous weapon for the running game.
Alex Cappa and Ted Karras should serve as upgrades there as well, with the entire combination fitting into offensive line coach Frank Pollack’s glass-eating vision for the ground game.
A few advanced stats to ponder when thinking about the potential spurt for Mixon with more consistent run blockers in front of him. The Bengals ranked 31st in the NFL last year in yards before contact per rush (0.86). The league average was 1.49.
The Bengals also ranked fifth in yards after contact per rush (3.14). The average was 2.83.
If Cincinnati could continue to make as many yards after first contact while avoiding so many of the hits in the backfield and other drive-killers that led to such an awful before-contact average, they could plop an extra half yard onto every run.
An offense that has Burrow at quarterback and averages 4.5 yards per carry on the ground will run it up all season long. They become nearly unstoppable.
Finally, the Bengals ranked 26th in the league in percentage of third-down runs that produced a first down (44.2 percent). The league average was 52.8 percent and the Buccaneers led the NFL at 71.4 percent.
Short yardage has been a point of emphasis and analysis this offseason by offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and the coaching staff. Finding ways for those runs to be better even just to a league-average level, which could naturally be the case with more dynamic run blockers up front, could extend 8 percent more drives during the year.
That’s significant.
Meanwhile, the passing offense will improve with better protection. Giving Burrow more time will only allow for him to dissect the intermediate and deep edges more. But he already came off a year when he led the league in yards per attempt and PFF grade. There’s only so much efficiency you can squeeze out of the position. Fewer sacks will go a long way in creating more opportunities, but there is more room for significant improvement in the running game, and the hosses coming to town are built to take advantage.
What, if any, training camp position battles are expected? — Jeff Smith
I’ll rattle off the battle for starting positions in order of importance, as I see them.
1. Left guard: Jackson Carman versus Cordell Volson. Carman holds the edge with a year of experience, but if he can’t live up to expectations of how to be a pro on and off the field, Volson will be there to scoop it up. Volson comes with the reputation for a relentless work ethic and team-centric attitude that will play in Cincinnati. The pads will tell the story come August.
2. Cornerback: Eli Apple versus Cam Taylor-Britt. This one weighs heavily in favor of Apple for the way he played last year and making good impressions on the coaches for the way he responded to the pressure placed upon him this offseason. Taylor-Britt could be great and maybe he takes out Apple by midseason even if he can’t do it in camp, but the Bengals have eyes on him as a cornerback of the future. Just a matter of when the future will start for him.
3. Punter: Kevin Huber versus Drue Chrisman. Will have to work on my stopwatch skills to judge training camp hang time. It’s no secret, the Bengals were hunting punters during the draft but didn’t see the one or two they liked fall far enough down the draft board. Chrisman and Huber are here and this could come down to Chrisman’s ability to be a holder. If he can do that flawlessly, then his younger, stronger leg could be enough to end the illustrious career of the Cincinnati hero, Huber, tied for the most games played in franchise history.
Vonn Bell (Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)
Bengals tend to sign players to extensions around August. Could you see them extending Germaine Pratt or Vonn Bell? — Maan Aboulhosn
Neither is likely. The Bell idea would be interesting strictly because of his role as a leader and quality starter at his position. Also, you wouldn’t be talking about breaking the bank. Perhaps a one- or two-year extension of the current deal that averages $6 million per year.
Two problems work against him. Bell will turn 28 in December. The Bengals are rarely willing to sign up for third-contract years that could flow into the 30s. You could make an argument for Bell as an exception if he were willing to do two years and $12 million added on, but then there’s the other problem. Cincinnati drafted two safeties in April, not just one. In an ideal world for them, Dax Hill and Tycen Anderson are the starters next year at safety. That might not come to fruition, but I imagine the Bengals would at least like to see the two play before making any decisions to keep an older, more expensive player at their position.
As for Pratt, I don’t think they view him as an extension candidate right now. It would behoove both sides for Pratt to put together a fantastic contract year and run his value up. If he can build on the momentum of his performance in the playoffs and take another step, then the Bengals will work on keeping him home.
What past Super Bowl halftime show would you have pulled a Clark Harris/Evan McPherson for? Or what band that hasn’t played the Super Bowl would you do the same? — Sam Gormley
Well, there was one that I would have done if the NFL didn’t screw it up so royally. Outkast should have been the halftime show in Atlanta in 2019. The league instead put Maroon 5 up there, despite being in the center of Southern hip-hop. They put Big Boi on the card late after taking a lot of heat for the decision and he ended up stealing the show rolling out in a Cadillac wearing a giant fur coat.
Outkast holds it down as my favorite concert I’ve ever attended. Seeing them reunite once again would be a thrill I would miss Super Bowl halftime for, without question, and I would have tried to sneak onto the field in Atlanta if the NFL hadn’t botched it.
Here you are curious about the potential for one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, camp battles, August extension candidates and my dream Super Bowl halftime show.
Thanks for all the questions, everybody.
Let’s go.
What are the chances of the Bengals being a top-five defense and offense this year? — Vincent Lewis
We discussed this on “Hear That Podcast Growlin’” last week, but I wanted to expound upon that conversation here.
The quick answer is that the chances are minuscule. That’s not a shot at the Bengals, their potential or the quality of players on both sides. It’s just history.
I used Football Outsiders DVOA as the metric for judging a top-five ranking.
Only three seasons over the last five years have produced a team ranking in the top five in offense and defense. That’s 160 individual seasons, with three hitting the criteria. That’s 1.9 percent.
This prompted me to expand the criteria to just include an offense and defense in the top quarter of the league. That ended up including 10 more seasons on top of the other three.
Keep in mind four of the 13 seasons landed in the Super Bowl and all produced double-digit wins.
DVOA ranking last five years (O/D top 8)
YEAR TEAM OFF DEF RECORD PLAYOFFS
2020
Tampa Bay
3
5
11-5
SB win
2019
Baltimore
1
5
14-2
Divisional
2017
Minnesota
5
1
11-5
NFCCG
2021
Dallas
6
2
12-5
Wild-card
2021
Rams
8
5
12-5
SB win
2021
San Francisco
5
7
10-7
NFCCG
2020
New Orleans
7
2
12-4
Divisional
2019
New Orleans
4
8
13-3
Wild-card
2019
San Francisco
7
2
13-3
SB loss
2018
New Orleans
4
8
13-3
NFCCG
2017
New Orleans
2
6
11-5
Divisional
2017
Rams
6
7
11-5
Wild-card
2017
Philadelphia
7
5
13-3
SB win
Not only have there only been 13 seasons with offense and defense in the top quarter, but only the 2019 Ravens did it in the AFC. With the AFC being even harder and the Bengals schedule projecting to be among the most difficult, those are some long odds to think they could pull this off.
Watch the offense rise to the top five, however, and that’s the recipe for success that would put the Bengals right back in the mix.
All of this is a long way to warn you to temper expectations, and just because both sides of the ball fail to improve dramatically from where it finished last year doesn’t mean anything has gone wrong.
Center Ted Karras (Katie Stratman / USA Today)
Will the run game or pass game improve more because of the O-line improvements? I think Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow both have a chance to be top five at their positions. — Zachary Popp
This one could probably go either way, but I would lean toward the running game. First off, over the last two seasons, La’el Collins has ranked as one of the best run-blocking offensive linemen in football.
He ranked fifth in run-block grade in 2019 and last year eighth among every offensive lineman. The idea of him plowing the back side of the wide zone with Mixon’s absurd ability to cut back with power coming off his blocks provides a dangerous weapon for the running game.
Alex Cappa and Ted Karras should serve as upgrades there as well, with the entire combination fitting into offensive line coach Frank Pollack’s glass-eating vision for the ground game.
A few advanced stats to ponder when thinking about the potential spurt for Mixon with more consistent run blockers in front of him. The Bengals ranked 31st in the NFL last year in yards before contact per rush (0.86). The league average was 1.49.
The Bengals also ranked fifth in yards after contact per rush (3.14). The average was 2.83.
If Cincinnati could continue to make as many yards after first contact while avoiding so many of the hits in the backfield and other drive-killers that led to such an awful before-contact average, they could plop an extra half yard onto every run.
An offense that has Burrow at quarterback and averages 4.5 yards per carry on the ground will run it up all season long. They become nearly unstoppable.
Finally, the Bengals ranked 26th in the league in percentage of third-down runs that produced a first down (44.2 percent). The league average was 52.8 percent and the Buccaneers led the NFL at 71.4 percent.
Short yardage has been a point of emphasis and analysis this offseason by offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and the coaching staff. Finding ways for those runs to be better even just to a league-average level, which could naturally be the case with more dynamic run blockers up front, could extend 8 percent more drives during the year.
That’s significant.
Meanwhile, the passing offense will improve with better protection. Giving Burrow more time will only allow for him to dissect the intermediate and deep edges more. But he already came off a year when he led the league in yards per attempt and PFF grade. There’s only so much efficiency you can squeeze out of the position. Fewer sacks will go a long way in creating more opportunities, but there is more room for significant improvement in the running game, and the hosses coming to town are built to take advantage.
What, if any, training camp position battles are expected? — Jeff Smith
I’ll rattle off the battle for starting positions in order of importance, as I see them.
1. Left guard: Jackson Carman versus Cordell Volson. Carman holds the edge with a year of experience, but if he can’t live up to expectations of how to be a pro on and off the field, Volson will be there to scoop it up. Volson comes with the reputation for a relentless work ethic and team-centric attitude that will play in Cincinnati. The pads will tell the story come August.
2. Cornerback: Eli Apple versus Cam Taylor-Britt. This one weighs heavily in favor of Apple for the way he played last year and making good impressions on the coaches for the way he responded to the pressure placed upon him this offseason. Taylor-Britt could be great and maybe he takes out Apple by midseason even if he can’t do it in camp, but the Bengals have eyes on him as a cornerback of the future. Just a matter of when the future will start for him.
3. Punter: Kevin Huber versus Drue Chrisman. Will have to work on my stopwatch skills to judge training camp hang time. It’s no secret, the Bengals were hunting punters during the draft but didn’t see the one or two they liked fall far enough down the draft board. Chrisman and Huber are here and this could come down to Chrisman’s ability to be a holder. If he can do that flawlessly, then his younger, stronger leg could be enough to end the illustrious career of the Cincinnati hero, Huber, tied for the most games played in franchise history.
Vonn Bell (Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)
Bengals tend to sign players to extensions around August. Could you see them extending Germaine Pratt or Vonn Bell? — Maan Aboulhosn
Neither is likely. The Bell idea would be interesting strictly because of his role as a leader and quality starter at his position. Also, you wouldn’t be talking about breaking the bank. Perhaps a one- or two-year extension of the current deal that averages $6 million per year.
Two problems work against him. Bell will turn 28 in December. The Bengals are rarely willing to sign up for third-contract years that could flow into the 30s. You could make an argument for Bell as an exception if he were willing to do two years and $12 million added on, but then there’s the other problem. Cincinnati drafted two safeties in April, not just one. In an ideal world for them, Dax Hill and Tycen Anderson are the starters next year at safety. That might not come to fruition, but I imagine the Bengals would at least like to see the two play before making any decisions to keep an older, more expensive player at their position.
As for Pratt, I don’t think they view him as an extension candidate right now. It would behoove both sides for Pratt to put together a fantastic contract year and run his value up. If he can build on the momentum of his performance in the playoffs and take another step, then the Bengals will work on keeping him home.
What past Super Bowl halftime show would you have pulled a Clark Harris/Evan McPherson for? Or what band that hasn’t played the Super Bowl would you do the same? — Sam Gormley
Well, there was one that I would have done if the NFL didn’t screw it up so royally. Outkast should have been the halftime show in Atlanta in 2019. The league instead put Maroon 5 up there, despite being in the center of Southern hip-hop. They put Big Boi on the card late after taking a lot of heat for the decision and he ended up stealing the show rolling out in a Cadillac wearing a giant fur coat.
Outkast holds it down as my favorite concert I’ve ever attended. Seeing them reunite once again would be a thrill I would miss Super Bowl halftime for, without question, and I would have tried to sneak onto the field in Atlanta if the NFL hadn’t botched it.
Romo “ so impressed with Zac ...1 of the best in the NFL… they are just fundamentally sound. Taylor the best winning % in the Playoffs of current coaches. Joe Burrow” Zac is the best head coach in the NFL & that gives me a lot of confidence." Taylor led the Bengals to their first playoff win since 1990, ending the longest active drought in the four major North American sports, en and appeared in Super Bowl LVI, the first since 1988.
