Homegrown Player Percentage List

[THE PISTONS]

(09-02-2022, 06:03 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The draft is more of a crapshoot than any of the "experts" want to admit.  Even the best teams in the league miss on first round picks, and every year there are players taken in the late rounds (or undrafted) that develop into solid NFL players.

For example, most fans think that a third-round pick should develop into a starter, but from '01-'15 almost half (47.3%) of third round picks started less than 17 games TOTAL in their NFL careers.  Only a little more than a third (37.5%) started more than 34 games for their careers.  So the odds are that you will NOT find a starter in the third round.

Heck the hit rate on 1st Round picks isn't as high as the average fan thinks too. Yet fans are like trade Bates for a pick!

Now I realize cost and potentially losing a player for nothing factors in, but odds of a draft pick turning into a really good player are low.