12-30-2022, 10:54 PM
(12-24-2022, 09:12 PM)Housh Wrote: Coming into 2022-2023 i was of the opinion that should resign all 3 guys but the team is likely looking to just keep 2/3 of our WRs long term.
Tyreke Hill set the WR market signing his 4 year 120 million dollar extension. About 30 million a year. This year Hill’s base salary is 1M but next year it’s 16M then it’s 19, then 21 then the last year of the deal it’s a whopping 44 million dollar base salary. If they cut him before the final year(32 years old) the deal turns into 95M dollar deal. But either way just by putting pen to paper he earned 72 million guaranteed.
These are Hill’s stats year by year since 2020.
2020 87 rec, 1276 yards, 15 TD
2021 111 rec, 1239 yards, 9 TD
2022 (so far) 109 rec, 1529 yards, 7 TD
Also keep in mind Hill isn’t really an off the field issue and isn’t a hothead on the field. Pretty much reports to work, gets it in and goes home. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus. Pretty good agent.
Let’s look at our guys:
Jamar Chase
2021 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD
2022(so far, factor in 4 missed games) 79 rec, 960 yards, 8 TDS.
A popular market value generator i use, estimated Chase’s market value if this were his contract year, at 4 years 100M which would match the new AJ Brown Eagles contract. For context AJ Brown last year in 13 games had 63 rec, 869 yards and 5 TD. Keep in mind Ryan Tannehill is pure trash and the Titans were a running team. His numbers this year are very good. Also keep in mind Chase has been pretty durable, isn’t a hothead and doesn’t have the diva gene. Games have gone where he was barely targeted and he didn’t say anything to the media.
Tee Higgins
2020 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
2021 74 rec, 1091 yards, 6 TD
2022(so far) 73 rec, 1022 yards, 7 TD
The market value estimator has him valued at around 4 year 95M contract which is approx. 24M per year if he were a FA this year. Keep in mind he’s been sorta injury prone throughout his career and he’s getting these stats, which are #1 WR stats as a number 2. So it’s very probable his agent will say his stats would be better on any other team which i would agree with. Imo Tee could reasonably ask for the same contract Chase gets.
Tyler Boyd
2020 79 rec, 841 yards, 4 TD
2021 67 rec, 828 yards, 5 TD
2022(so far) 53 rec, 711 yards, 5 TD
The website i use that does market value didn’t have an entry for Boyd so i had to get creative. I tried my best to find a good slot WR comparison contract and alot of the better slot guys also take a lot of outside snaps too so it was hard. Boyd really never takes snaps as the outside WR. Even if both chase and Tee are hurt Boyd would stay in the slot which is important. Guys like Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett have the ability to play slot and outside so their contracts reflect that. Not saying Boyd couldn’t put up 100 catches as a teams lone outside WR but he just hasn’t been asked to do that since we got Burrow.
I have to guess Boyd would be able to ask for 3 years 45M which would be around 15M per. This would be more than the one he signed a couple years ago which was for 4 years 43M. Remember at the time of signing that contract he was arguably a top 3 slot WR. With inflation and on a that doesn’t have 2 other WRs i don’t feel like 3 years 45M is crazy. It may be off but it ain’t CRAZY off.
With all 3 guys playing really good and Burrow probably here for life i can only imagine they can maintain these numbers.
So Iv asked if before and I’ll ask again. Based off their play so far which guys do you sign? Prior to this year starting i was in the camp of resigning all 3. I still am. Chase and Tee together would be 200M. If Boyd is only going to be maybe 40M more and you add in Burrow’s possibly 50M a year we’re at approx. 115M dollars per year in base salary for 4 guys.
I read a couple sites and the 2023 salary cap is expected to be 220M. 220-115 is 105M left for the o line and defense IF we indeed signed all 4 of those guys. Trey Hendrickson average salary is 15M, Reader 13M, Hilton 6M, Jessie Bates market value is at around 10M per year right now, Pratt’s estimated market value is around 8M. Logan Wilson will get more than that. Lemme just say 14M per year. We’re at 65M now which leaves us with 40 more million. Jonah, Karras, Cappa and Collins together are about 30M. That leaves 10 million left which is probably about where we’d stop because we love to have rollover cap.
Now obviously you can’t have a team of like 20 dudes so some of these guys are getting walking papers and we will be drafting replacements.
Just a matter of who?
Nice thread Housh. I think we will let Boyd walk after his contract is up and he can get some big dough from somebody
hopefully outside of our Division. Let's pay Tee who is a Bengal fan and will also want to stay more than anyone. Irwin has
shown to be a lot more than the doubters were thinking and we can Draft another Slot WR who are easier to find than the
beasts on the outside like Ja'Marr and Tee.
(12-24-2022, 09:18 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Probably have to let Tyler walk after next year if Irwin shows he can do it over time. I think if Joe gets an extension this year it doesn’t kick in until 2025.I guess the biggest problem is having enough cash to put away for the guaranteed money. Makes no sense that they have to bank all that.
Like Housh said in his other post, we will have to front load the contracts for the Receivers and backload the contract for Brrr.
Also need to extend Logan Wilson soon who is also playing lights out. Bring Hurst back.
