Reevaluating the WR market as the regular season comes to a close

[J24]

(12-26-2022, 06:21 PM)Cosmokramer Wrote: I wouldn’t trade him for picks.  No promise they work out at all.  And he’s just too good. Worst case is tag him. But you keep burrow, chase and tee together with Irwin as the 3rd. You will always have the ability to be deadly.

To be frank you're a 100% right on picks we don't know how they will turn out but that's how the game works out. The FO can't keep everyone and gaining a 1st RD pick  + is better than getting nothing in return.

Losing Tee sucks ass but the FO has to Maximize losing him if that makes sense.

[Housh]

Honestly I’d rather have one more year of Tee rather than getting a pick

He’s that good

[Frank Booth]

I know it's risky, and football locker rooms seem to be more fragile than baseball ones, but the Cleveland...Guardians.. will trade their really good players when they have 1 year left on their contract, and then get high end prospects in return. Thats how that team stays successful over time

Would it be a bad idea to trade higgins next season? Im not sure. I immediately think no. But I also cant stand how he misses like 4 games per season give or take

[casear2727]

(12-24-2022, 09:12 PM)Housh Wrote: Coming into 2022-2023 i was of the opinion that should resign all 3 guys but the team is likely looking to just keep 2/3 of our WRs long term.


Tyreke Hill set the WR market signing his 4 year 120 million dollar extension. About 30 million a year. This year Hill’s base salary is 1M but next year it’s 16M then it’s 19, then 21 then the last year of the deal it’s a whopping 44 million dollar base salary. If they cut him before the final year(32 years old) the deal turns into 95M dollar deal. But either way just by putting pen to paper he earned 72 million guaranteed.

These are Hill’s stats year by year since 2020.

2020 87 rec, 1276 yards, 15 TD
2021 111 rec, 1239 yards, 9 TD
2022 (so far) 109 rec, 1529 yards, 7 TD


Also keep in mind Hill isn’t really an off the field issue and isn’t a hothead on the field. Pretty much reports to work, gets it in and goes home. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus. Pretty good agent.



Let’s look at our guys:

Jamar Chase
2021 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD
2022(so far, factor in 4 missed games) 79 rec, 960 yards, 8 TDS.

A popular market value generator i use, estimated Chase’s market value if this were his contract year, at 4 years 100M which would match the new AJ Brown Eagles contract. For context AJ Brown last year in 13 games had 63 rec, 869 yards and 5 TD. Keep in mind Ryan Tannehill is pure trash and the Titans were a running team. His numbers this year are very good. Also keep in mind Chase has been pretty durable, isn’t a hothead and doesn’t have the diva gene. Games have gone where he was barely targeted and he didn’t say anything to the media.  


Tee Higgins
2020 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
2021 74 rec, 1091 yards, 6 TD
2022(so far) 73 rec, 1022 yards, 7 TD

The market value estimator has him valued at around 4 year 95M contract which is approx. 24M per year if he were a FA this year. Keep in mind he’s been sorta injury prone throughout his career and he’s getting these stats, which are #1 WR stats as a number 2. So it’s very probable his agent will say his stats would be better on any other team which i would agree with. Imo Tee could reasonably ask for the same contract Chase gets.

Tyler Boyd
2020 79 rec, 841 yards, 4 TD
2021 67 rec, 828 yards, 5 TD
2022(so far) 53 rec, 711 yards, 5 TD

The website i use that does market value didn’t have an entry for Boyd so i had to get creative. I tried my best to find a good slot WR comparison contract and alot of the better slot guys also take a lot of outside snaps too so it was hard. Boyd really never takes snaps as the outside WR. Even if both chase and Tee are hurt Boyd would stay in the slot which is important. Guys like Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett have the ability to play slot and outside so their contracts reflect that. Not saying Boyd couldn’t put up 100 catches as a teams lone outside WR but he just hasn’t been asked to do that since we got Burrow.

I have to guess Boyd would be able to ask for 3 years 45M which would be around 15M per. This would be more than the one he signed a couple years ago which was for 4 years 43M. Remember at the time of signing that contract he was arguably a top 3 slot WR. With inflation and on a that doesn’t have 2 other WRs i don’t feel like 3 years 45M is crazy. It may be off but it ain’t CRAZY off.







With all 3 guys playing really good and Burrow probably here for life i can only imagine they can maintain these numbers.

So Iv asked if before and I’ll ask again. Based off their play so far which guys do you sign? Prior to this year starting i was in the camp of resigning all 3. I still am. Chase and Tee together would be 200M. If Boyd is only going to be maybe 40M more and you add in Burrow’s possibly 50M a year we’re at approx. 115M dollars per year in base salary for 4 guys.



I read a couple sites and the 2023 salary cap is expected to be 220M. 220-115 is 105M left for the o line and defense IF we indeed signed all 4 of those guys. Trey Hendrickson average salary is 15M, Reader 13M, Hilton 6M, Jessie Bates market value is at around 10M per year right now, Pratt’s estimated market value is around 8M. Logan Wilson will get more than that. Lemme just say 14M per year. We’re at 65M now which leaves us with 40 more million. Jonah, Karras, Cappa and Collins together are about 30M. That leaves 10 million left which is probably about where we’d stop because we love to have rollover cap.


Now obviously you can’t have a team of like 20 dudes so some of these guys are getting walking papers and we will be drafting replacements.


Just a matter of who?

Im not understanding the Year and numbers in this detail?  The annual amounts wont be nearly those numbers due to prorated bonuses and current years still under contract.

Tee and Burrow can both be extended this offseason (2023).  Tee's wont have an impact until 2024, possibly 2025 considering structure.  Burrows wont have a huge impact until 2025, possibly 2026, and if he takes a Mahomes type deal we can easily keep Tee and Chase.

I can tell you Tyler is hoping to as for $20M and says he will play for $17M, both numbers I find too high.

You mention a mix of 2023 and 2024 free agents... are you suggesting we extend the 2024's this offseason?

 2023
Pratt 
Bates 
You did not mention Bell? 

2024
Reader
Hendrickson
Awuzie
Jonah
Wilson

The salary cap in 2024 is projected to be $225M and in 2025 is projected to be $256M.

[BengalsBong]

(12-26-2022, 06:02 PM)motoarch Wrote: We do what we want.




Let boyd go and move Irwin into the line up.

Such a rebel. lol 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Paying WR3 $15 mil a year makes no sense to me if we are tight in ither areas. I mean, I don't want to loose Hendrickson, Reader, Logan Wilson, or even Bell & Pratt because we need to pay Boyd $15 mil..

I'd love it if Burrow takes a bit of a discount, but he could cost $60 mil a year soon (2025). Chase's extension won't kick in until 2026. Tee is up after 2023. The cap shouod be climbing rapidly, but not rapidly enough. The only starters on rookie scale contracts, ATM, are Butrow (2025), Chase (2026), Higgins (2023), J. Williams (2023), Volson (2026), Wilson (2024), and Pratt (2022). All of our other starters are on 2nd contracts & make pretty good money: Hendrickson, Reader, Bates, Mixon, Boyd, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Bell, Awuzie, Cappa, Collins, Karras, Apple, Hurst. If we lise some of those guys because we cannot pay them, we are gonna need drafted players on rookie deals to fill in. Or Joe/Chase/Tee/Boyd to take a bit of a haircut on the next deal to stay together.

I think Burrow & Chase are no-brainer, "whatever it takes to keep them here" decisions. Hendrickson & Reader are close. Next tier for me is Tee and Wilson.

Here is the year all our starters come up for FA, with how much they make in the last year of the deal. I have included Dax Hill & CTB as well. And Perine & Flowers.

2023: Bates ($12.9), Bell ($7.5), Apple ($3.75), Hurst ($3.5), Pratt ($2.8), Perine ($1.8), Flowers ($1.8).

Biggest deserved raise: Pratt
Top priority re-sign: Bell
Money saver: Bates


2024: Reader ($15.7), Mixon ($12.85, $13.1 mil team option for 2024, with $2.75 dead cap), J. Williams ($12.6), Boyd ($10.3), Awuzie ($8.15, $1.5 DC), Higgins ($2.8), L. Wilson ($1.6).

Biggest deserved raises: Higgins, L. Wilson
Top Priority re-sign: Reader
Money saver(s): Mixon (decline option), J. Williams (walk or re-sign for less), Boyd (ditto).


2025: Burrow (IDK what 5th option is), Hendrickson ($17.5), BJ Hill ($10.8, $3.33 dead cap if out in 2024), Collins ($8.66, $1.66 DC), Hilton ($7.45, $1 mil DC), Karras ($7.4, $1.0 DC).

Biggest deserved raise(s): Burrow
Top Priority Re-sign(s): Burrow, Hendrickson
Money savers?: Collins

2026: Chase (IDK what the 5th option is, north of $15 mil would be my guess) Hubbard ($11.6, $2 mil DC), CTB ($1.9),.

Biggest raise: Chase
Top priority: Chase
Miney savers: none

2027: D. Hill (if 5th year option picked up).

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-26-2022, 03:14 PM)pally Wrote: The better player to compare Ja'Marr's future contract to is the one Justin Jefferson will get this off-season.

The biggest obstacle to re-signing Tee is his agent and the agent's willingness to play hardball on signing bonuses and guaranteed money.  2 things the Bengals have been reluctant to meet in other negotiations.  Tee will get WR1 dollars, with a huge signing bonus, and lots of guaranteed money from some team.  The question is if Tee is willing to go to a struggling team and lesser QB to get that money.

This. The idea that Chase is going to get AJ Brown's contract is fantasy, it would mean he wouldn't even be a top-5 paid WR and $5m/yr below the 2nd highest paid. Justin Jefferson is about to reset the top-WR market again, and that's going to raise Chase's number accordingly.

(12-26-2022, 06:21 PM)Cosmokramer Wrote: I wouldn’t trade him for picks.  No promise they work out at all.  And he’s just too good. Worst case is tag him. But you keep burrow, chase and tee together with Irwin as the 3rd. You will always have the ability to be deadly.

Worst case scenario is you tag him and he gets a little banged up and sits it out injured through what he'd normally play through, or makes business decisions on not taking a big hit because there's absolutely no reason for him to put his body on the line without long term guarantees. Or you tag him and he becomes malcontent.

That's all assuming he even reaches the point of being franchise tagged and doesn't do a hold-in this next preseason like all the WRs did this previous offseason/preseason. 

It's a pretty safe bet that Tee isn't going to be happy making $1.8m next year.

You won't always have the ability to be deadly because you won't be able to field a quality roster. You'll have a great QB, 2 great WRs, and then a roster of guys who are cheap enough to keep you under the cap.

(12-26-2022, 06:46 PM)Housh Wrote: Honestly I’d rather have one more year of Tee rather than getting a pick

He’s that good

Only helps you for 1 year, and then you're hamstringing yourself for many. If we were the Titans or Packers and Tee was our only great receiving threat, then yes, you need to keep him no matter what. With Chase we're more the Chiefs who already had a great receiving threat and could afford to trade a second to reload cheaper.

[guyofthetiger]

I'm in the camp of keeping Chase and Higgins. Offer them what it takes IMO.

[motoarch]

(12-26-2022, 07:30 PM)BengalsBong Wrote: Such a rebel. lol 

I'm pretty badass.

[THE PISTONS]

I think Mixon is gone as soon as it's advantageous to do so.

[Ell Prez]

I highly doubt they trade him. Have the Bengals ever done a move like that? Trading a player in his prime to get 1st round picks so they don’t have to pay them? Palmer was a completely different story- he threatened to retire. Tee won’t be doing that.


That said, the nfl is an offense league. You resign Chase and Higgins. That means the likes of Boyd, Mixon, Bates, Pratt, Wilson go.

To make my counter argument, if we let Higgins go and gave that $25M/year to say Pratt, Wilson, 1 more player - it’s arguably easier to replace 1 player in the draft as opposed to needing to hit on 3 players.

That being said, I’d still sign Higgins. (Chase and Burrow are an obvious yes. The team starts there).

[J24]

(12-27-2022, 11:10 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: I highly doubt they trade him. Have the Bengals ever done a move like that? Trading a player in his prime to get 1st round picks so they don’t have to pay them? Palmer was a completely different story- he threatened to retire. Tee won’t be doing that.


That said, the nfl is an offense league. You resign Chase and Higgins. That means the likes of Boyd, Mixon, Bates, Pratt, Wilson go.

To make my counter argument, if we let Higgins go and gave that $25M/year to say Pratt, Wilson, 1 more player - it’s arguably easier to replace 1 player in the draft as opposed to needing to hit on 3 players.

That being said, I’d still sign Higgins. (Chase and Burrow are an obvious yes. The team starts there).

1.) Yes the Bengals have traded a player in his prime for 1st RD pick. They did it with with Big Daddy Wilkerson in 1998. So there is some history of them doing it.

1b.) Even if they hadn't done a move like that before; why would it stop them from doing it now?  They never participated in free agency and now they do. They wouldn't build an indoor facility now they have!   This isn't  the same old Bengals things have changed around here.

 People are underestimating how important the defense has been these past two seasons. That unit has become a special unit since the start of last years playoffs and a key to our success. Losing multiple starters won't be a good thing for the unit.

Joe is an elite QB and  he can elevate the players around him. So I would argue that it would be easier to replace a great offensive player with Burrow  around than it would to replace a great Defensive player.

[Bengalholic]

(12-26-2022, 03:14 PM)pally Wrote: The better player to compare Ja'Marr's future contract to is the one Justin Jefferson will get this off-season.

The biggest obstacle to re-signing Tee is his agent and the agent's willingness to play hardball on signing bonuses and guaranteed money.  2 things the Bengals have been reluctant to meet in other negotiations.  Tee will get WR1 dollars, with a huge signing bonus, and lots of guaranteed money from some team.  The question is if Tee is willing to go to a struggling team and lesser QB to get that money.

Yep...I hate the idea of losing Tee, but I also don't envision any scenario where the Bengals and Mulugheta would ever get close to being in the same ballpark when it comes to negotiations.

[Rotobeast]

(12-27-2022, 10:31 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yep...I hate the idea of losing Tee, but I also don't envision any scenario where the Bengals and Mulugheta would ever get close to being in the same ballpark when it comes to negotiations.

Bingo... unfortunately.
We've been pretty good at evaluating WRs. I'm sure we will draft another to fill in. If not, there's plenty of stop-gap vets out there.

Sent from my SM-S515DL using Tapatalk

[Ell Prez]

(12-27-2022, 09:41 PM)J24 Wrote: 1.) Yes the Bengals have traded a player in his prime for 1st RD pick. They did it with with Big Daddy Wilkerson in 1998. So there is some history of them doing it.

1b.) Even if they hadn't done a move like that before; why would it stop them from doing it now?  They never participated in free agency and now they do. They wouldn't build an indoor facility now they have!   This isn't  the same old Bengals things have changed around here.

 People are underestimating how important the defense has been these past two seasons. That unit has become a special unit since the start of last years playoffs and a key to our success. Losing multiple starters won't be a good thing for the unit.

Joe is an elite QB and  he can elevate the players around him. So I would argue that it would be easier to replace a great offensive player with Burrow  around than it would to replace a great Defensive player.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to trade Tee, but I just don’t see it.

I 100% agree the defense is very important to our success. But I do think it’s easier to replace our LB’s with rookie/cheaper FA LB than to try and replace Tee. Irwin isn’t Tee. Let’s be real.

The reality in all this is we need to win the SB this year. Before JB gets the bag. This is our year and it needs to happen. I believe it will. Bengals vs Eagles in the SB. 27-23 Bengals!!!

[Garrus]

Joe wants to win, and to do that you need a good defense in this league. That means continuing to spend money there. When you have an elite QB like Joe then you shouldn't need two #1 WRs. The smart move is to keep Chase, and then use the draft to fill in any missing WRs to save money. On offense most money will go to the QB and Chase, after that it should be invested in your line. the other WRs and TE can be JAGs. Rest of the pie needs to be given to the defense.

I love Tee and would love for him to stay but he will just cost too much for it to make any sense. That said I would not trade him. Let him walk when his contract runs out and take the comp pick. We might get a 3rd for him at least.

[*Synric*]

(12-28-2022, 01:48 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: I’m not saying it’s impossible to trade Tee, but I just don’t see it.

I 100% agree the defense is very important to our success. But I do think it’s easier to replace our LB’s with rookie/cheaper FA LB than to try and replace Tee. Irwin isn’t Tee. Let’s be real.

The reality in all this is we need to win the SB this year. Before JB gets the bag. This is our year and it needs to happen. I believe it will. Bengals vs Eagles in the SB. 27-23 Bengals!!!

It's actually looking like a great year to put Tee Higgins on the trade block. 

Hearing alot that the WR class won't be as deep as it has been and it's full of shorter fast guys. There are alot less big long boundary WRs and only one that is getting a for sure first round grade. That should really drive up Tees value... the downside is that the Bengals might now have more draft picks but need to replace Tee in a light draft class.

[XenoMorph]

Extend Burrow.. Sign Higgins to 3 year deal. then tag chase if needed... But keep together at least 3 more years.

Let Boyd Walk Get some cap back from Mixon

[J24]

(12-28-2022, 11:10 AM)Synric Wrote: It's actually looking like a great year to put Tee Higgins on the trade block. 

Hearing alot that the WR class won't be as deep as it has been and it's full of shorter fast guys. There are alot less big long boundary WRs and only one that is getting a for sure first round grade. That should really drive up Tees value... the downside is that the Bengals might now have more draft picks but need to replace Tee in a light draft class.

Yeah that's one of my major concerns about this draft class is WR Depth. It would be nice if the Bengals  could maneuver themselves into a top 10 pick and draft the kid from TCU.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-24-2022, 09:12 PM)Housh Wrote: Coming into 2022-2023 i was of the opinion that should resign all 3 guys but the team is likely looking to just keep 2/3 of our WRs long term.


Tyreke Hill set the WR market signing his 4 year 120 million dollar extension. About 30 million a year. This year Hill’s base salary is 1M but next year it’s 16M then it’s 19, then 21 then the last year of the deal it’s a whopping 44 million dollar base salary. If they cut him before the final year(32 years old) the deal turns into 95M dollar deal. But either way just by putting pen to paper he earned 72 million guaranteed.

These are Hill’s stats year by year since 2020.

2020 87 rec, 1276 yards, 15 TD
2021 111 rec, 1239 yards, 9 TD
2022 (so far) 109 rec, 1529 yards, 7 TD


Also keep in mind Hill isn’t really an off the field issue and isn’t a hothead on the field. Pretty much reports to work, gets it in and goes home. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus. Pretty good agent.



Let’s look at our guys:

Jamar Chase
2021 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD
2022(so far, factor in 4 missed games) 79 rec, 960 yards, 8 TDS.

A popular market value generator i use, estimated Chase’s market value if this were his contract year, at 4 years 100M which would match the new AJ Brown Eagles contract. For context AJ Brown last year in 13 games had 63 rec, 869 yards and 5 TD. Keep in mind Ryan Tannehill is pure trash and the Titans were a running team. His numbers this year are very good. Also keep in mind Chase has been pretty durable, isn’t a hothead and doesn’t have the diva gene. Games have gone where he was barely targeted and he didn’t say anything to the media.  


Tee Higgins
2020 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
2021 74 rec, 1091 yards, 6 TD
2022(so far) 73 rec, 1022 yards, 7 TD

The market value estimator has him valued at around 4 year 95M contract which is approx. 24M per year if he were a FA this year. Keep in mind he’s been sorta injury prone throughout his career and he’s getting these stats, which are #1 WR stats as a number 2. So it’s very probable his agent will say his stats would be better on any other team which i would agree with. Imo Tee could reasonably ask for the same contract Chase gets.

Tyler Boyd
2020 79 rec, 841 yards, 4 TD
2021 67 rec, 828 yards, 5 TD
2022(so far) 53 rec, 711 yards, 5 TD

The website i use that does market value didn’t have an entry for Boyd so i had to get creative. I tried my best to find a good slot WR comparison contract and alot of the better slot guys also take a lot of outside snaps too so it was hard. Boyd really never takes snaps as the outside WR. Even if both chase and Tee are hurt Boyd would stay in the slot which is important. Guys like Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett have the ability to play slot and outside so their contracts reflect that. Not saying Boyd couldn’t put up 100 catches as a teams lone outside WR but he just hasn’t been asked to do that since we got Burrow.

I have to guess Boyd would be able to ask for 3 years 45M which would be around 15M per. This would be more than the one he signed a couple years ago which was for 4 years 43M. Remember at the time of signing that contract he was arguably a top 3 slot WR. With inflation and on a that doesn’t have 2 other WRs i don’t feel like 3 years 45M is crazy. It may be off but it ain’t CRAZY off.







With all 3 guys playing really good and Burrow probably here for life i can only imagine they can maintain these numbers.

So Iv asked if before and I’ll ask again. Based off their play so far which guys do you sign? Prior to this year starting i was in the camp of resigning all 3. I still am. Chase and Tee together would be 200M. If Boyd is only going to be maybe 40M more and you add in Burrow’s possibly 50M a year we’re at approx. 115M dollars per year in base salary for 4 guys.



I read a couple sites and the 2023 salary cap is expected to be 220M. 220-115 is 105M left for the o line and defense IF we indeed signed all 4 of those guys. Trey Hendrickson average salary is 15M, Reader 13M, Hilton 6M, Jessie Bates market value is at around 10M per year right now, Pratt’s estimated market value is around 8M. Logan Wilson will get more than that. Lemme just say 14M per year. We’re at 65M now which leaves us with 40 more million. Jonah, Karras, Cappa and Collins together are about 30M. That leaves 10 million left which is probably about where we’d stop because we love to have rollover cap.


Now obviously you can’t have a team of like 20 dudes so some of these guys are getting walking papers and we will be drafting replacements.


Just a matter of who?

Nice thread Housh. I think we will let Boyd walk after his contract is up and he can get some big dough from somebody 
hopefully outside of our Division. Let's pay Tee who is a Bengal fan and will also want to stay more than anyone. Irwin has
shown to be a lot more than the doubters were thinking and we can Draft another Slot WR who are easier to find than the 
beasts on the outside like Ja'Marr and Tee.

(12-24-2022, 09:18 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Probably have to let Tyler walk after next year if Irwin shows he can do it over time. I think if Joe gets an extension this year it doesn’t kick in until 2025.I guess the biggest problem is having enough cash to put away for the guaranteed money. Makes no sense that they have to bank all that.

Like Housh said in his other post, we will have to front load the contracts for the Receivers and backload the contract for Brrr.

Also need to extend Logan Wilson soon who is also playing lights out. Bring Hurst back.