03-03-2023, 07:06 PM
I think what they do is not in their own hands, especially with the FAs. And the draft is always a crapshoot. I think the desire is to retain as many FA starters as possible and then draft for depth instead of trying to find a starter at a specific spot. How many we lose and who is kept, at what price, then starts a domino effect on signing outside FAs and how we draft. I will break it down into tiers:
I. Stuff I am sure happens: near 100% certainty.
1. Burrow Extension. Hopefully prior to FA.
2. We keep one of Bates/Bell, but not both.
2. Bates walks. Stings some. But he is the most expensive guy & Hill is here.
3. Bell is back. We cannot lose both starting safeties. $8-10 mil. If, howver, Bates is more accomodating and Bell is not, it could go the other way, as Hill can play in the box. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. We have significant cap space, and if push comes to shove, we pony up for Bell. Even if it is a tag.
4. Perine is back. Should not be too expensive. Need him with Mixon's future cloudy.
II. Stuff I think is very likely to happen.
1. Hurst stays. Hurst should be the priority of our remaining in house guys, as Asiasi is the only TE we have signed. He, Wilcox & Sample add nada as receivers. Yes, it is a deep TE class, but TE2 plays a lot of snaps. I don't want to have to draft/sign 2 TEs. Hurst signing would not prevent us from drafting a TE, but we could wait for day 2 or day 3. Hurst finds a home. $6-$7 mil.
2. We end with 4 TEs on the roster. Hurst, a day 1-2 pick, plus 2 from Asiasi, Sample, Wilcox, or a Day 3 pick. Two who are receiving threats and two who can block. Guys who can do both preferable.
3. Logan Wilson extension. Probably in the summer. Certainly after FA frenzy & the draft.
4. Returning reserves. Perine for $3 mil. Carman, Ossai, ADG, Bailey, & Tycen Anderson are already signed. These are no-brainer keeps. Anderson did not play last year, but we traded UP for him, he is staying.
5. Brandon Wilson is waived. He has a $2 mil salary and $0 dead cap and is coming off a major injury. He led the league in KO returns 3 years ago, but us paying $2 mil for a reserve is rare. In $2022, we had exactly 2 reserves make $2 mil or more: Scharping at $2.54 and Dax Hill at $2.1. Perine was at $1.85 mil, Flowrs at $1.84, Carman $1.7. Tupou at $1.4 next. In 2021 it was zero (though XSF ended up one). Point being, we don't typically pay reserves much. Though going for a SB that may change some. But it would have to be a guy that has starter potential/started before and performed well. Perine qualifies and I have him down for $3 mil. Apple qualifies but it will depend on what else happens. Scharping did as well last year. Brandon does not. And KO returns almost never happen any more. Plus, T. Williams (also a FA) and Evans did fine on KO returns. There is on S spot open, and I think we go with the cheaper Michael Thomas or pick a Day 3 safety (Ward from LSU or Dean from Florida or Brown from Illinois ir someone else).
III. Capology
1. Numbers. We've spent $16 mil in cap space on Bell & Hurst. Dax Hill takes Bates' spot at FS, and CTB takes Apple's starting spot. Assumimg Jonah is healthy but Chido & Collins may not be, but I am penciling them in as "starters" for roster analysis.
We'd have 21/22 starters signed on O/D. With Pratt's spot open, and Chido & LC dinged up. Adomitis & Money Mac are inked. Even though P is open, Chrisman is inked and a new P won't move the needle in terms of cap. 24/25 starters: $175,686,041 in cap hits. Duke said we are spending to the cap. Which + rollover & dead money is around $226.8 mil. A touch over $51 mil with 24 signed. Add in Perine's $3 mil and $7,664,332 for the other 6 no-brainers and we are at $186,351,372 with 31 guys inked. Around $40.4 mil in space.
Our 1st round pick is slated to make $2.4 mil, so down to $38 mil with 32 signed. Every other draft pick makes $1.1 mil or less and every other player we have signed makes $1.214 mil (ADG) or less except for Tupou at $1.57 mil ($150k dead cap). Point being, any cuts from guys below Tupou are not saving much money once you sign a replacement. Even Tupou is only gonna save a couple hundred k. Waivers from this line sown aren't about cap, it's about upgrades. And you can budget them at around $1 mil per salary slot. A touch more. Only Carter ($655k), Smith ($250k), and Tupou ($150k) have dead cap hits over $100k.
2. Argument's sake.
We have 3 more guys who are signed and had guys below them on the depth chart last year: Tupou, Irwin, and Adeniji. For now, lets say they all are back. 3 more guys, $3.57 more in salary. 35 signed. $34.4 mil in space. With Brandon Wilson & Tupou off the board, our 10 remaining signed guys (Carter, Tufele, Morgan, T. Hill, Smith, George, Evans, Gunter, Asiasi, Ben Brown) all make just under $10 mil combined ($9,964,853). And our 6 remaining draft picks (Rounds 2-7) make $5,211,236 combined. Those 16 guys would make $15,176,089, bringing our total to $201,527,461. Roughly $25 mil in space. With a cap significant 51 guys signed. From here on out, we are essentially displacing a guy (cap wise) for every guy we sign, so subtract a touch under a mil from whatever we sign a guy for from here on.
While we have some internals that will probably demand a smidge over a mil (Allen, Taylor, Thomas) it won't be by much. The only ones we have that will are Pratt, Apple, Flowers, and Scharping.
IV. More probable than not.
1. Mixon restructure or waiver.
$25 mil to cover Pratt ($8-$10 mil) and whomever we want to bring back of Apple/Flowers/Scharping is certainly doable. But snug. Figure some dead cap as not everyone under contract is back ($1 mil) and some buffer for regular season injuries & moves ($5 mil) and things are gettingcreal snug.
I am not a contract guy, but signing bonuses on extensions could count this year as well, right? So a little more room.
But if we can save $7 or $10 mil by waiving Mixon, we'd have enogh to comfortablly sign Pratt, one of Apple/Flowers, and Scharping (or a low cost vet OL/DE move). IDK what a restructure would look like, but if it doesn't save at least $5 mil, it ain't worth it.
2. Pratt stays.
With the Mixon move, we now have $21 ($5 mil restructure), $23 mil (pre FA waiver) or $26 mil (post June 1) left AFTER signing Pratt for $10 mil. This is a yes for me.
If Pratt goes, I think we make a more major FA move. Be it a play for a LB (Wagner), or OL or pass rush.
3. EDIT: I think the decision on everyone else (save maybe Apple) is after the draft. None of the rest of our guys will be high demand guys. We may sign a couple early (Allen, Taylor, T. Williams, Wilcox), but they don't change the cap math.
4. We make at least 1 FA move on the OL. Probably mid to small. Scharping back. A tackle. IOL. If we decide to let Apple walk (and re-sign Flowers instead), the move will be bigger.
I. Stuff I am sure happens: near 100% certainty.
1. Burrow Extension. Hopefully prior to FA.
2. We keep one of Bates/Bell, but not both.
2. Bates walks. Stings some. But he is the most expensive guy & Hill is here.
3. Bell is back. We cannot lose both starting safeties. $8-10 mil. If, howver, Bates is more accomodating and Bell is not, it could go the other way, as Hill can play in the box. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. We have significant cap space, and if push comes to shove, we pony up for Bell. Even if it is a tag.
4. Perine is back. Should not be too expensive. Need him with Mixon's future cloudy.
II. Stuff I think is very likely to happen.
1. Hurst stays. Hurst should be the priority of our remaining in house guys, as Asiasi is the only TE we have signed. He, Wilcox & Sample add nada as receivers. Yes, it is a deep TE class, but TE2 plays a lot of snaps. I don't want to have to draft/sign 2 TEs. Hurst signing would not prevent us from drafting a TE, but we could wait for day 2 or day 3. Hurst finds a home. $6-$7 mil.
2. We end with 4 TEs on the roster. Hurst, a day 1-2 pick, plus 2 from Asiasi, Sample, Wilcox, or a Day 3 pick. Two who are receiving threats and two who can block. Guys who can do both preferable.
3. Logan Wilson extension. Probably in the summer. Certainly after FA frenzy & the draft.
4. Returning reserves. Perine for $3 mil. Carman, Ossai, ADG, Bailey, & Tycen Anderson are already signed. These are no-brainer keeps. Anderson did not play last year, but we traded UP for him, he is staying.
5. Brandon Wilson is waived. He has a $2 mil salary and $0 dead cap and is coming off a major injury. He led the league in KO returns 3 years ago, but us paying $2 mil for a reserve is rare. In $2022, we had exactly 2 reserves make $2 mil or more: Scharping at $2.54 and Dax Hill at $2.1. Perine was at $1.85 mil, Flowrs at $1.84, Carman $1.7. Tupou at $1.4 next. In 2021 it was zero (though XSF ended up one). Point being, we don't typically pay reserves much. Though going for a SB that may change some. But it would have to be a guy that has starter potential/started before and performed well. Perine qualifies and I have him down for $3 mil. Apple qualifies but it will depend on what else happens. Scharping did as well last year. Brandon does not. And KO returns almost never happen any more. Plus, T. Williams (also a FA) and Evans did fine on KO returns. There is on S spot open, and I think we go with the cheaper Michael Thomas or pick a Day 3 safety (Ward from LSU or Dean from Florida or Brown from Illinois ir someone else).
III. Capology
1. Numbers. We've spent $16 mil in cap space on Bell & Hurst. Dax Hill takes Bates' spot at FS, and CTB takes Apple's starting spot. Assumimg Jonah is healthy but Chido & Collins may not be, but I am penciling them in as "starters" for roster analysis.
We'd have 21/22 starters signed on O/D. With Pratt's spot open, and Chido & LC dinged up. Adomitis & Money Mac are inked. Even though P is open, Chrisman is inked and a new P won't move the needle in terms of cap. 24/25 starters: $175,686,041 in cap hits. Duke said we are spending to the cap. Which + rollover & dead money is around $226.8 mil. A touch over $51 mil with 24 signed. Add in Perine's $3 mil and $7,664,332 for the other 6 no-brainers and we are at $186,351,372 with 31 guys inked. Around $40.4 mil in space.
Our 1st round pick is slated to make $2.4 mil, so down to $38 mil with 32 signed. Every other draft pick makes $1.1 mil or less and every other player we have signed makes $1.214 mil (ADG) or less except for Tupou at $1.57 mil ($150k dead cap). Point being, any cuts from guys below Tupou are not saving much money once you sign a replacement. Even Tupou is only gonna save a couple hundred k. Waivers from this line sown aren't about cap, it's about upgrades. And you can budget them at around $1 mil per salary slot. A touch more. Only Carter ($655k), Smith ($250k), and Tupou ($150k) have dead cap hits over $100k.
2. Argument's sake.
We have 3 more guys who are signed and had guys below them on the depth chart last year: Tupou, Irwin, and Adeniji. For now, lets say they all are back. 3 more guys, $3.57 more in salary. 35 signed. $34.4 mil in space. With Brandon Wilson & Tupou off the board, our 10 remaining signed guys (Carter, Tufele, Morgan, T. Hill, Smith, George, Evans, Gunter, Asiasi, Ben Brown) all make just under $10 mil combined ($9,964,853). And our 6 remaining draft picks (Rounds 2-7) make $5,211,236 combined. Those 16 guys would make $15,176,089, bringing our total to $201,527,461. Roughly $25 mil in space. With a cap significant 51 guys signed. From here on out, we are essentially displacing a guy (cap wise) for every guy we sign, so subtract a touch under a mil from whatever we sign a guy for from here on.
While we have some internals that will probably demand a smidge over a mil (Allen, Taylor, Thomas) it won't be by much. The only ones we have that will are Pratt, Apple, Flowers, and Scharping.
IV. More probable than not.
1. Mixon restructure or waiver.
$25 mil to cover Pratt ($8-$10 mil) and whomever we want to bring back of Apple/Flowers/Scharping is certainly doable. But snug. Figure some dead cap as not everyone under contract is back ($1 mil) and some buffer for regular season injuries & moves ($5 mil) and things are gettingcreal snug.
I am not a contract guy, but signing bonuses on extensions could count this year as well, right? So a little more room.
But if we can save $7 or $10 mil by waiving Mixon, we'd have enogh to comfortablly sign Pratt, one of Apple/Flowers, and Scharping (or a low cost vet OL/DE move). IDK what a restructure would look like, but if it doesn't save at least $5 mil, it ain't worth it.
2. Pratt stays.
With the Mixon move, we now have $21 ($5 mil restructure), $23 mil (pre FA waiver) or $26 mil (post June 1) left AFTER signing Pratt for $10 mil. This is a yes for me.
If Pratt goes, I think we make a more major FA move. Be it a play for a LB (Wagner), or OL or pass rush.
3. EDIT: I think the decision on everyone else (save maybe Apple) is after the draft. None of the rest of our guys will be high demand guys. We may sign a couple early (Allen, Taylor, T. Williams, Wilcox), but they don't change the cap math.
4. We make at least 1 FA move on the OL. Probably mid to small. Scharping back. A tackle. IOL. If we decide to let Apple walk (and re-sign Flowers instead), the move will be bigger.
