The Tee Conundrum

[Bengalbug]

(8 hours ago)ochocincos Wrote: Only 3 were Top 10 picks - Harrison, Nabers, Odunze.
Bowers was 13th, Thomas was next WR taken after Odunze and was 23rd, and the rest came after.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/picks/

Bengals can get an immediate contributor pass catcher in Rd 1-2.
It's not guaranteed they will get a great one, as there are some that have not, but there are plenty that are.

Compare that to the pass rushers who have 4+ sacks so far:
Latu
Verse
Fiske

Out of 15 DL drafted in Rds 1-2.

More likely Bengals will get immediate impact from a WR as a rookie compared to a DL.

I'm not worried about getting 80% of Higgins from a 1st round pick. 800 yards compared to 1000 yards is fine for a decrease, IMO.
The question will be what are you getting for $25+ mill for a DL/SAF with that money compared to having Higgins + defensive draft pick?

Receivers have the highest bust rate for 1st round picks dating back to 2000. Every year people talk about the immediate production that they provide. It’s a fallacy, more often than not, and is the biggest gamble there is.

Article 1:

Round One Wide Receivers

The gold mine. The king of kings. If you’re drafting a receiver for fantasy football or your NFL team, it’s likely the first round ones hit at a higher rate. This shouldn’t be surprising, but the data does back up the age old adage that draft capital matters. First round wide receivers hit rate was about 50 percent in the data, with 20 out of 43 hitting.

Refining this to receivers taken top ten, the hit rate was nine out of 14. Injuries to Kevin White, a head-scratching pick of John Ross and a cheeseburger addiction for Sammy Watkins even skew the data to an even more positive light. This leaves a hit rate for the rest of the round as fairly close to round two (37 versus 38 percent) but still higher.

Article 2:

With that in mind, ESPN's Adam Schefter shared an interesting bit of data on social media, compiled by ESPN producer Paul Hembekides. He looked at first-round picks at every position between 2000-19 to determine a success rate -- or hit rate -- at each position to get an idea of what the surest and riskiest bets are for teams looking to nail their top pick.

According to the research, first-round quarterbacks hit at a rate of 46 percent, with 26 being hits and 30 being misses.

An interesting aspect in a year like this with so many high-profile wide receiver prospects can be found at the shockingly low hit rate at that position. Wide receivers were the riskiest of the first-round positions with a hit rate of just 27 percent -- 21 hits and 56 misses.