The Tee Conundrum

[Bengalbug]

(9 hours ago)ochocincos Wrote: Only 3 were Top 10 picks - Harrison, Nabers, Odunze.
Bowers was 13th, Thomas was next WR taken after Odunze and was 23rd, and the rest came after.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/picks/

Bengals can get an immediate contributor pass catcher in Rd 1-2.
It's not guaranteed they will get a great one, as there are some that have not, but there are plenty that are.

Compare that to the pass rushers who have 4+ sacks so far:
Latu
Verse
Fiske

Out of 15 DL drafted in Rds 1-2.

More likely Bengals will get immediate impact from a WR as a rookie compared to a DL.

I'm not worried about getting 80% of Higgins from a 1st round pick. 800 yards compared to 1000 yards is fine for a decrease, IMO.
The question will be what are you getting for $25+ mill for a DL/SAF with that money compared to having Higgins + defensive draft pick?

Another one:

Drafting a first-round WR is hard, and the hit rate here is historically lower than other positions. There’s a 63 percent chance of drafting a bust or a reach. Think of a reach as a serviceable starter who should’ve been drafted three rounds later, like Tavon Austin (No. 8 in 2013, 21 spots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins) or Mike Williams (No. 7 in 2017).

Your first-round WR typically busts. Out of every three WRs drafted, one has been a bust, like Jalen Reagor, infamously drafted by the Eagles in 2020 at pick No. 21 — one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson.

The odds of landing a superstar are low. Less than one of every five WRs drafted in the first-round hit each criteria. The No. 27 pick in 2013, DeAndre Hopkins, checked every box, as has 2018’s No. 24, D.J. Moore.

The good news? Drafting a WR in the top 10 made teams more likely to at least land a star, like Amari Cooper (No. 4 in 2015).

The bad news? The historical hit rate for a top-10 WR is barely over 50 percent (52.9).

1. First-round WR talent comes in waves. In 2014, two superstars — Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. — were drafted first round, together with a star in Brandin Cooks.

In the following three years, thirteen WRs were drafted in the first round. Over half were top-15 picks. This led to zero superstars, eight of the 13 were busts, and only one, Amari Cooper, became a star.

2. Every first-round WR is fighting the odds, even the top-10 picks. With six players at this position worthy of first-round selection this year, the bust/reach rate of 63 percent makes it likely that three or four of them disappoint.