Yesterday, 04:35 PM
Look, regarding Stone, the simple facts is, we have so many holes that even with lots of cap space and hitting on all our draft picks...we cannot fill them all.
DEFCON 1 Holes: Fix ASAP
1. WR2 (Higgins FA)
2. RG (Cappa crappa)
3. FS (Stone sinking)
4. DE2 (Hubbard hobbled/Murphy missing)
5. DT (Hill FA, Rankins reeking, Jenkins/Jackson struggling)
DEFCON 2 Holes: Mediocre play
1. LG (Volson meh)
2. LB2 (Pratt's problems)
3. TE1 (All injury, other guys one way only)
4. WR3 (Yoshi yikes)
5. SS issues (Bell's bummer, Battle bonehead)
And we have even gotten into depth issues. Or the lack of a CB1. Or the poor tackling that permeates the D. That is just too much to cover via FA & draft.
The point isn't to say we think Stone or Volson or Murphy or Jackson are now all awesome. The point is, is that if some of these guys start proving they can play at an acceptable level (or, God forbid, higher), then our to do list becomes more manageable. Like 1 year back in contention manageable. But if we need starter level players at WR2, DT, NT, DE2, RG, LG, LB2, FS, TE1, WR3, SS, CB3, and PK, plus depth issues, it is just too much.
In a universe where Stone can man FS at an acceptable level, Murphy can give Trey a little help, Jackson gives you ok-ish play at NT, and Volson isn't godawful, we can see a path to fix this. Without a tear down and wasting another year of prime Burrow, Chase, Hendrickson.
Dig if you will the new picture with Stone, Murphy, and Volson at acceptable starter level and Jackson at rotational level:
DEFCON 1 Needs: Glaring holes/killing us
1. WR2 (re-sign Tee)
2. RG (Cappa crappa)
3. DT (Hill FA, Rankins reeks, but Jackson/Jenkins OK)
DEFCON 2 Holes: Mediocre starters
1. DE2 (Hubbard Hobbled, Murphy OK)
2. LG (Volson meh)
3. LB2 (Pratt's problems)
4. TE1 (All injury, no 2 way others)
5. WR3 (Yoshi struggles)
6. SS issues (Bell's bummer, Battle bonehead)
This is more manageable. We have the $$ to sign Tee and a Cappa IOL upgrade. Restructuring Burrow and a strategic cut or three (Cappa & Rankins, maybe Moss, Hubbard, or Pratt) frees up more space.
Restructure Burrow to boost the cap space by $19 mil, up to $81. Chase's extension will only be the signing bonus proration, say $8 mil. Extend Tee, say $22 mil cap hit. Now we are at $51 mil. Take $4 out to pay the PS. $47. Give Rankins' money to Hill. Spend $20 mil (if we have to) on a quality guard to replace Cappa, but the hit is only $12 after you cut him. $35 mil left.
All your DEFCON1 level needs are filled. Tee is back, one guard spot is now a strength, and Hill/Jenkins/Jackson isn't awesome, but you have 3 playable DTs: one DT (Jenkins), one NT (Jackson), and one swing who can play next to either type (Hill).
That $35 has to cover your draft picks (6) and filling out the rest of the roster, which now stands at 43 heading into the draft. 49 assuming your picks get rostered.
Use that $$ to attack these needs in FA. In my view, there isn't really a big fish/high impact DE or DT out there. The FA TE class is abysmal (Gesicki is the best). And spending on WR3 after paying Chase AND Higgins would be idiotic. For a big spend, that leaves LG (Zeitler, Jenkins), SS (Baker, others), and CB1. Or we just go moderate from here out.
For me, I fix what I can fix in FA. The IOL draft is weak, but the FA class is strong. I have already restructured Burrow, extended Chase, signed Higgins, cut Rankins and paid BJ Hill with the savings, and cut Cappa and signed the best RG FA I can (I budget $20 mil with $8 offset).
I go get another FA IOL (LG or C) and make IOL a strength. The D is such a mess that think a complete fix cannot happen in one year. And centerpiece guys in FA are not there. I mostly am gonna fix that in the draft. But I want to make the O fantastic. Good enough to win games/close games like Philly did to Pitt (2 2nd half Pittsburgh possessions Sunday). The rest of FA will be bargain bin hunting on D (SS, DE, DT) and bringing back some of our own if the price is right (Hilton, Gesicki, Ossai, C. Sample, Hudson, ADG, Ford, T. Brown, Herbert). If by some miracle we have enough $$ left to land an impact guy at DB or LB (or can create enough space to do so), then I do that as well. Moss, Hubbard, McPherson, & Pratt would be my savings candidates.
A'd assume $20-$25 mil left to cover re-signing our own and our picks. That assumes a $10-$15 mil LG. Cut Moss to save $3.5, Money Mac gets you $2.5 (draft Zvada), Hubbard saves you $9.6 and Pratt $5.6 if you have to. But I start with Moss & Mac, and I am up to $26-$31 mil again.
Sure, we may not fill EVERY need. We may have to live with a poor TE situation, or no true CB1, or no stud DE actoss from Trey again. But we should have enough $$ to fill at least 1-2 more defcon2 or lower holes in FA (DE2, DT, LB2, SS, slot corner) and most of the others on Day 1/Day2 of the draft or by retaining some of our own (Gesicki, Hilton, etc).
Again, maybe you put the pieces together differently. Let BJ walk, cut Hubbard & Pratt, & go for a big DB fish in FA, or LB1. Who knows?
But my point is, if these guys can come good over the last 1/4 of the year, then it changes what we can do in the draft & FA. Gives us more options & freedom.
If Stone comes good, then FS is not a pressing need anymore. More FA/draft focus on the trenches. If Murphy comes good it is easier to cut Hubbard and use that $$ elsewhere, or keep him and take DE off the board as a huge need, though depth would still be needed. Jackson flashing makes the DT/NT need less acute, particularly if Hill comes back, though some 3T pass rush or direct Reader level guy would always be welcome. But you wouldn't necessarily HAVE to go DT in Rd1.
If Button comes good (seems unlikely now) then WR3 if off the board early in the draft.
We are just pooking for bright spots in the darkness.
DEFCON 1 Holes: Fix ASAP
1. WR2 (Higgins FA)
2. RG (Cappa crappa)
3. FS (Stone sinking)
4. DE2 (Hubbard hobbled/Murphy missing)
5. DT (Hill FA, Rankins reeking, Jenkins/Jackson struggling)
DEFCON 2 Holes: Mediocre play
1. LG (Volson meh)
2. LB2 (Pratt's problems)
3. TE1 (All injury, other guys one way only)
4. WR3 (Yoshi yikes)
5. SS issues (Bell's bummer, Battle bonehead)
And we have even gotten into depth issues. Or the lack of a CB1. Or the poor tackling that permeates the D. That is just too much to cover via FA & draft.
The point isn't to say we think Stone or Volson or Murphy or Jackson are now all awesome. The point is, is that if some of these guys start proving they can play at an acceptable level (or, God forbid, higher), then our to do list becomes more manageable. Like 1 year back in contention manageable. But if we need starter level players at WR2, DT, NT, DE2, RG, LG, LB2, FS, TE1, WR3, SS, CB3, and PK, plus depth issues, it is just too much.
In a universe where Stone can man FS at an acceptable level, Murphy can give Trey a little help, Jackson gives you ok-ish play at NT, and Volson isn't godawful, we can see a path to fix this. Without a tear down and wasting another year of prime Burrow, Chase, Hendrickson.
Dig if you will the new picture with Stone, Murphy, and Volson at acceptable starter level and Jackson at rotational level:
DEFCON 1 Needs: Glaring holes/killing us
1. WR2 (re-sign Tee)
2. RG (Cappa crappa)
3. DT (Hill FA, Rankins reeks, but Jackson/Jenkins OK)
DEFCON 2 Holes: Mediocre starters
1. DE2 (Hubbard Hobbled, Murphy OK)
2. LG (Volson meh)
3. LB2 (Pratt's problems)
4. TE1 (All injury, no 2 way others)
5. WR3 (Yoshi struggles)
6. SS issues (Bell's bummer, Battle bonehead)
This is more manageable. We have the $$ to sign Tee and a Cappa IOL upgrade. Restructuring Burrow and a strategic cut or three (Cappa & Rankins, maybe Moss, Hubbard, or Pratt) frees up more space.
Restructure Burrow to boost the cap space by $19 mil, up to $81. Chase's extension will only be the signing bonus proration, say $8 mil. Extend Tee, say $22 mil cap hit. Now we are at $51 mil. Take $4 out to pay the PS. $47. Give Rankins' money to Hill. Spend $20 mil (if we have to) on a quality guard to replace Cappa, but the hit is only $12 after you cut him. $35 mil left.
All your DEFCON1 level needs are filled. Tee is back, one guard spot is now a strength, and Hill/Jenkins/Jackson isn't awesome, but you have 3 playable DTs: one DT (Jenkins), one NT (Jackson), and one swing who can play next to either type (Hill).
That $35 has to cover your draft picks (6) and filling out the rest of the roster, which now stands at 43 heading into the draft. 49 assuming your picks get rostered.
Use that $$ to attack these needs in FA. In my view, there isn't really a big fish/high impact DE or DT out there. The FA TE class is abysmal (Gesicki is the best). And spending on WR3 after paying Chase AND Higgins would be idiotic. For a big spend, that leaves LG (Zeitler, Jenkins), SS (Baker, others), and CB1. Or we just go moderate from here out.
For me, I fix what I can fix in FA. The IOL draft is weak, but the FA class is strong. I have already restructured Burrow, extended Chase, signed Higgins, cut Rankins and paid BJ Hill with the savings, and cut Cappa and signed the best RG FA I can (I budget $20 mil with $8 offset).
I go get another FA IOL (LG or C) and make IOL a strength. The D is such a mess that think a complete fix cannot happen in one year. And centerpiece guys in FA are not there. I mostly am gonna fix that in the draft. But I want to make the O fantastic. Good enough to win games/close games like Philly did to Pitt (2 2nd half Pittsburgh possessions Sunday). The rest of FA will be bargain bin hunting on D (SS, DE, DT) and bringing back some of our own if the price is right (Hilton, Gesicki, Ossai, C. Sample, Hudson, ADG, Ford, T. Brown, Herbert). If by some miracle we have enough $$ left to land an impact guy at DB or LB (or can create enough space to do so), then I do that as well. Moss, Hubbard, McPherson, & Pratt would be my savings candidates.
A'd assume $20-$25 mil left to cover re-signing our own and our picks. That assumes a $10-$15 mil LG. Cut Moss to save $3.5, Money Mac gets you $2.5 (draft Zvada), Hubbard saves you $9.6 and Pratt $5.6 if you have to. But I start with Moss & Mac, and I am up to $26-$31 mil again.
Sure, we may not fill EVERY need. We may have to live with a poor TE situation, or no true CB1, or no stud DE actoss from Trey again. But we should have enough $$ to fill at least 1-2 more defcon2 or lower holes in FA (DE2, DT, LB2, SS, slot corner) and most of the others on Day 1/Day2 of the draft or by retaining some of our own (Gesicki, Hilton, etc).
Again, maybe you put the pieces together differently. Let BJ walk, cut Hubbard & Pratt, & go for a big DB fish in FA, or LB1. Who knows?
But my point is, if these guys can come good over the last 1/4 of the year, then it changes what we can do in the draft & FA. Gives us more options & freedom.
If Stone comes good, then FS is not a pressing need anymore. More FA/draft focus on the trenches. If Murphy comes good it is easier to cut Hubbard and use that $$ elsewhere, or keep him and take DE off the board as a huge need, though depth would still be needed. Jackson flashing makes the DT/NT need less acute, particularly if Hill comes back, though some 3T pass rush or direct Reader level guy would always be welcome. But you wouldn't necessarily HAVE to go DT in Rd1.
If Button comes good (seems unlikely now) then WR3 if off the board early in the draft.
We are just pooking for bright spots in the darkness.
