Yesterday, 07:43 PM
(Yesterday, 07:12 PM)jj22 Wrote: How did they go from ATL getting more from him in a trade then a comp pick to us sending a day 3 pick for him? He's young enough and has shown enough potential to get paid in FA still.
ATL would be foolish to get rid of weapons for their young QB.
Average yearly value of a contract is a major factor for comp pick calculation, and TEs are never going to be up there in that.
The highest paid TE in the league last year (Travis Kelce) was the 130th highest paid player in the NFL, 6 spots behind the 26th highest paid WR in the NFL (Jerry Jeudy).
That means a TE is most likely never going to bring you a 3rd round comp pick. Remember, Jessie Bates was barely a 3rd round comp pick at $16m/yr two years ago and only squeaked in because of being a Pro Bowler and 2nd team All-Pro that year. That means you're probably at best hoping for a 4th round comp pick, and possibly a 5th.
Any comp pick is an extra year old, and it's generally considered that each year in the future reduces the value of a pick by a full round. So lets say the Falcons are expecting a 4th round comp pick for him if he leaves in FA, that would be a 2027 (because he'd leave in the 2026 FA) 4th round comp pick. That'd be roughly the same value as a 2025 6th round comp pick. The comp picks come at the end of a round, so any normal pick of that round is better than a comp pick of that round.
So a 2025 6th round (our 191st overall) pick would actually be worth more than a 2027 4th round comp pick. A 2025 5th rounder (our 152nd overall) would be worth quite a bit more.
- - - - -
(Keep in mind the Falcons are currently at -$6.3m cap space for 2025, so turning him into a 5th round pick and $10m in cap space might be currently more valuable to them than having him play for them. They still have a pretty good WR trio and Bijan Robinson at RB.)
____________________________________________________________
