01-25-2025, 07:53 PM
OK, time to make a run at our 2025 current cap situation. This is gonna be long and complex and imprecise for a number of reasons. The two big ones are: 1) I am not a cap wizard (so if I mess something up, someone who is more knowledgeable please correct me on my mistake), and 2) The NFL has not yet set an official cap number yet for 2025. It usually does at the December meetings, but did not this year. But my head is getting ready to explode with all the "we cannot afford to sign Tee and extend Chase" posts, so I have to at least make a run at it. Here goes.
VI. Bengals 2025 Salary Cap Breakdown
For the uninitiated, the NFL salary cap consists of several components. First off, there is the matter of setting the cap itself, whereby the NFL sets a number based on the revenue sharing components of the Collective Bargaining Agreement with the players. So a new number cannot be set until all revenues are counted from the previous season. Additionally, the Player's Union can choose to defer some increases in order to flatten out cap increases if there is a big spike. This usually happens the first year of new TV rights deals, and the players often choose to do this so players who are FA's in the one year do not get all of the boost from the new deal, and it is divided up more equitably over several years. In fact, they NFL/Union chose to defer $9 mil form last year, to be split evenly in 2025 and 2026, according to this article, which estimates the 2025 cap to be between $265-$275 million.
https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-teams-don-t-have-official-projection-budgeting-for-2025-salary-cap-in-265m-275m-range#:~:text=Then%2C%20there%20is%20the%20matter,half%20being%20used%20this%20offseason.
Additionally, each team's unused cap space from the prior year rolls over into the new year. This "Rollover cap" is added to whatever number the NFL puts out and then becomes the number each team is eligible to spend for the next season. And while we don't know the exact number for the NFL salary cap yet (Spotrac is using $275 million and OTC $272.5 million at the moment), we do know the amount of Rollover for the Bengals: $5,935,175. So, that leaves us here at the moment:
A. Bengals 2025 Salary Cap Budget = $270,935,175 to $280,935,175
1) NFL Salary Cap = $265-$275 million (OTC at $272.5, Spotrac at $275)
+2) 2024 Rollover Cap = $5,935,175
-----------------------------------------------------------------
3) 2025 Bengals Salary Cap Budget Range = $270,935,175 to $280,935,175 (spotrac), OTC at $278,435,175
But, of course, the budget is only half or the equation, or really, a third. Next comes the obligations. What is already spent? Again, there are multiple parts here, counted differently in the off-season and regular season, and, of course, subject to change. But some stuff is known. The number will be our Dead Money + our contract obligations (top 51 in the off-season, top 53 once the season starts) + the costs for the practice squad and the injured lists in the regular. For that reason, we usually keep a bit of a cushion for when we need to sign more players and will not spend right up the the limit. And, or course, these numbers can change if a contract is restructured, extended, or a player is released. But here is where we appear to be at the moment:
B. Bengals 2025 Salary Cap Obligations = $230,847,768 (OTC), $230,947,768 (spotrac)
1. Money from 2024 & earlier: $357,964 (OTC & spotrac)
+2. Top 51 Contracts for 2025: $230,489,806 (OTC), $230,947,768 (spotrac)
----------------------------------------------------------------
3. 2025 Total Cap Liabilities = $230,847,768
C. Estimated Cap Spac3
1. Top 51 (OTC): $47,587,407
2. Top 51 (spotrac): $49,987,407
Now, both of those numbers probably overstate and understate our cap situations. First, they don't account for practical things like the cushion, the cost of the practice squad and any guys on IR, Chase/Hendrickson extensions, and the top pick(s) who will make more than the guys they bump off the roster. But it also does not account for some guys getting waived who make considerable money (Rankins, Cappa + Hubbard, Moss, Volson, + maybe more like Pratt or Stone or McPherson) or the potential to restructure Burrow to gain $19 mil in space.
Indeed, if one just looks at $47-$49 mil, figures $25 for Tee, say $8 mil for Chase's extension/pro-rated signing bonus, and another $5 for Hendrickson, and suddenly that's $39 mil. Add in a cushion, a 1st round pick and there is precious little left. But do not despair, we will almost certainly cut some big earners. Rankins would nets $8,617,647, Cappa $8 mil, Hubbard $9,511,765, Moss $3,316,176, and Volson $3,575,000 for total of $33,020,586. Throw in a max restructure for Burrow ($19 mil) and all of a sudden, we have nearly $60 mil in actual space again, with Tee, Chase, and Trey locked up. Plus, with some creative contract structuring, Tee's cap hit should be well below $25 mil this year, or whatever his APY is. Jefferson's hit this year is just over $15 mil despite the huge contract he signed last year.
I will go into more detail later. But suffice to say, we can easily retain Tee, extend Chase and Hendrickson with some ample room to manuever.
VI. Bengals 2025 Salary Cap Breakdown
For the uninitiated, the NFL salary cap consists of several components. First off, there is the matter of setting the cap itself, whereby the NFL sets a number based on the revenue sharing components of the Collective Bargaining Agreement with the players. So a new number cannot be set until all revenues are counted from the previous season. Additionally, the Player's Union can choose to defer some increases in order to flatten out cap increases if there is a big spike. This usually happens the first year of new TV rights deals, and the players often choose to do this so players who are FA's in the one year do not get all of the boost from the new deal, and it is divided up more equitably over several years. In fact, they NFL/Union chose to defer $9 mil form last year, to be split evenly in 2025 and 2026, according to this article, which estimates the 2025 cap to be between $265-$275 million.
https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-teams-don-t-have-official-projection-budgeting-for-2025-salary-cap-in-265m-275m-range#:~:text=Then%2C%20there%20is%20the%20matter,half%20being%20used%20this%20offseason.
Additionally, each team's unused cap space from the prior year rolls over into the new year. This "Rollover cap" is added to whatever number the NFL puts out and then becomes the number each team is eligible to spend for the next season. And while we don't know the exact number for the NFL salary cap yet (Spotrac is using $275 million and OTC $272.5 million at the moment), we do know the amount of Rollover for the Bengals: $5,935,175. So, that leaves us here at the moment:
A. Bengals 2025 Salary Cap Budget = $270,935,175 to $280,935,175
1) NFL Salary Cap = $265-$275 million (OTC at $272.5, Spotrac at $275)
+2) 2024 Rollover Cap = $5,935,175
-----------------------------------------------------------------
3) 2025 Bengals Salary Cap Budget Range = $270,935,175 to $280,935,175 (spotrac), OTC at $278,435,175
But, of course, the budget is only half or the equation, or really, a third. Next comes the obligations. What is already spent? Again, there are multiple parts here, counted differently in the off-season and regular season, and, of course, subject to change. But some stuff is known. The number will be our Dead Money + our contract obligations (top 51 in the off-season, top 53 once the season starts) + the costs for the practice squad and the injured lists in the regular. For that reason, we usually keep a bit of a cushion for when we need to sign more players and will not spend right up the the limit. And, or course, these numbers can change if a contract is restructured, extended, or a player is released. But here is where we appear to be at the moment:
B. Bengals 2025 Salary Cap Obligations = $230,847,768 (OTC), $230,947,768 (spotrac)
1. Money from 2024 & earlier: $357,964 (OTC & spotrac)
+2. Top 51 Contracts for 2025: $230,489,806 (OTC), $230,947,768 (spotrac)
----------------------------------------------------------------
3. 2025 Total Cap Liabilities = $230,847,768
C. Estimated Cap Spac3
1. Top 51 (OTC): $47,587,407
2. Top 51 (spotrac): $49,987,407
Now, both of those numbers probably overstate and understate our cap situations. First, they don't account for practical things like the cushion, the cost of the practice squad and any guys on IR, Chase/Hendrickson extensions, and the top pick(s) who will make more than the guys they bump off the roster. But it also does not account for some guys getting waived who make considerable money (Rankins, Cappa + Hubbard, Moss, Volson, + maybe more like Pratt or Stone or McPherson) or the potential to restructure Burrow to gain $19 mil in space.
Indeed, if one just looks at $47-$49 mil, figures $25 for Tee, say $8 mil for Chase's extension/pro-rated signing bonus, and another $5 for Hendrickson, and suddenly that's $39 mil. Add in a cushion, a 1st round pick and there is precious little left. But do not despair, we will almost certainly cut some big earners. Rankins would nets $8,617,647, Cappa $8 mil, Hubbard $9,511,765, Moss $3,316,176, and Volson $3,575,000 for total of $33,020,586. Throw in a max restructure for Burrow ($19 mil) and all of a sudden, we have nearly $60 mil in actual space again, with Tee, Chase, and Trey locked up. Plus, with some creative contract structuring, Tee's cap hit should be well below $25 mil this year, or whatever his APY is. Jefferson's hit this year is just over $15 mil despite the huge contract he signed last year.
I will go into more detail later. But suffice to say, we can easily retain Tee, extend Chase and Hendrickson with some ample room to manuever.
