Trey Hendrickson Update

[*rfaulk34*]

(6 hours ago)Au165 Wrote: I don't have the data handy, I posted it before here, but essentially the decline of pass rushers post 30 is about as sure of a thing as you can bet on outside of HB's. Usually the elite guys will have one more elite year (at some points over the span of that contract not necessarily 1st year) then a mix bag of injuries and awful years, but usually both. I mean look at Dunlap and Atkins just in context of former Bengals, they fell into that trend themselves. It's not just them it's actually almost all of the biggest pass rushers of the last 10 years or so with a couple exceptions. Maybe Trey is that exception, but if he isn't the downside is pretty devastating.  

The reality is the Bengals probably have already gotten the best years out of Trey. They are trying to limit their exposure in the decline and it's not wrong it's just uncomfortable. Us having nothing outside of him doesn't mean he still won't most likely decline quickly in the lifespan of this contract. You can't let one bad situation compound into another, that's just throwing good money after bad. 

I remember the Dunlap/Atkins contract and decline. 

If the Bengals simply hadn't botched the extension in '23, they would most likely be fine now and with a 3 yr extension, they'd have him this year and next, with relatively little loss, minus any kind of injury. 

I don't doubt the 30+ decline with pass rushers, when it takes everyone into account. The elite pass rushers are usually more productive for longer. If you look at the top 20 sack leaders, here's the number of double digit sack seasons they had from age 30 year to retirement. 
7, 6, 3, 7, 4, 3, 5, 5, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5, 3.  All but three had at least 3 seasons of double digit sacks in their 30+ years. The three that didn't were LT, Demarcus Ware and Jared Allen, who retired in their 34, 34 and 33 year seasons, respectively. The rest of them played to their 35-40 year old season. 

Trey just had a double digit sack season in his 30 year old season and i don't think it's out of the question to expect him to have at least 2 more good to great years before you see a noticible dip. 

Knowing the way the Bengals operate, he'll probably go to another team and end up with 40 more sacks before he hangs them up, along with some All Pro honors and maybe a ring, ala Whitworth.