Is Shemar holding out?

[Essex Johnson]

(Yesterday, 03:25 PM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: If I am not qualified to offer a take because I’m not an NFL GM, then you’re no more qualified to assert that my assessment is incorrect.

Look at the picks our FO has made over the last 15 years, give or take a few. Recent history. Any sort of blind faith in their expertise is sunshine-pumping irrationality.

The problem for most of us, we dont have the time and resources to really do deep dives across all teams in success rate with draft picks.  I found this study that was done over a twenty year period on nfl draft pick success rate, the stats verify that few teams is much success with draft picks over time.   Yes the bengals have had busts and have struggled with draft  but so have other teams even though that we consider a strong franchise, just take a look over past 5 to 10 drafts of the Steelers, it is littered with busts also... Here is a quick summary

only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.