Creativity With The Cap = Winning?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-04-2018, 02:40 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: It's an interesting theory and thank you for providing the data, however, I'm skeptical. I think teams will fluctuate dependent on the year and how their contracts are designed.

The Patriots are an interesting example of this:

2012: rank 15
2013: rank 26
2014: rank 20
2015: rank 25
2016: rank 29
2017: rank 4
2018: rank 16


IMO It's not the size (amount) that matters, it's how you use it.

I think longevity is an important piece of this as well. How long will the Eagles and Jaguars be good?

I think the Patriots are a bit of an outlier when all things are considered seeing as how Tom Brady is arguably the best QB in NFL history, but is currently only being paid as the 22nd highest on average ($15m/yr, 1/2 of Matt Ryan's $30m/yr and less than 1/2 of Rodger's $33.5m/yr).


Not everyone can get an all-time great QB who has a obscenely rich supermodel wife, so he feels comfortable taking less. Lol

If they had to pay him like a Manning/Rodgers/Brees during that timeframe, they would be much higher up there.


I think longevity is overrated if you won a SB. I don't think the Eagles will be heartbroken if going all-in and winning a SB in 2017 means they will have a rough year or two in 2019 or 2020.

The Bengals had longevity when they went to the postseason 5 straight years.

1-2 years of greatness > half a decade of mediocrity


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(09-04-2018, 02:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Have to use 2017 salary numbers if you are going to compare 2017 production.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/aav/2017/

Based on AAV playoff teams seemed to be close to randomly distributed.  Only 5 of top 10 teams in AAV made the playoffs.  Only 7 of 12 playoff teams were in the top half of the league in AAV along with the Bengals (16th).  Vikes, Rams, Titans, Saints, and Bills all made playoffs with AAV in the bottom half of the league.

I did use 2017 salary numbers. You are REALLY terrible at reading people's posts before replying, Fred.

Quote:Keep in mind that the 2017 salary cap was set at $167m, and the Super Bowl winning Eagles had an AAV of $201.3m last year. The AFC winning Patriots had an AAV of $191m.

The use of the 2018 Bengals numbers was as a possible predictor of the future of the 2018 Bengals season.

"Only" 5 of the top 10, but 3 of the top 4 in AAV were 3 of the 4 teams in the Conference Championship Games. That's not randomly distributed at all. The best teams last year stuffed in the most talent with their cap management. Sure the Vikings also made the NFC Championship game with the 17th ranked AAV, but lost 38-7 to the #1 AAV team.

Nice job ignoring the bit about 7 (53.8%) of the top 13 making the playoffs. As in only 5 (26.3%) out of the remaining 19 made it.