Bringing back a HC after 3 straight losing seasons

[SunsetBengal]

(12-27-2018, 06:27 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In Paul Dehner's latest article, he provides examples of why bringing back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons usually ends up badly -
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/12/27/analysis-coaches-endure-three-straight-losing-seasons-shows-definitive-trend-marvin-lewis-bengals/2422821002/

Taking from Paul's article and using PFR, here's what you normally get when you bring back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons:

Since Marvin was hired, 12 other coaches have had 3 straight losing seasons and survived through the last game.

After the season ended, 7 were fired and 5 were retained.

Of the 5 that were retained, only Sean Payton had a winning record the next season. Of course, Payton was also a different case because he had previously won a SB and multiple playoff games, which factored into the reasoning for keeping him.

The other 4 coaches that were retained after 3 straight losing seasons had a combined record of 14-32 the following year and 3 of them got fired at some point during the season:

Jeff Fisher: 7-9 (He was also brought back the following year, but fired after 13 games)
Dick Jauron: 3-6
Gus Bradley: 2-12
Mike Nolan: 2-5

The numbers are pretty telling, that it's not likely to work out well.