11-11-2019, 04:19 PM
This is something to ponder with the Bengals likely to have a high pick in 2020 draft.
There are 4-5 top prospects in this draft that are "elite" two QB, DE, and OT, maybe WR. I can show data that supports first round prospect have an average stay in the NFL as a significant contributor compared to rounds 2-7.
There are two schools of thought regarding the draft.
1-Draft more players so that the "hit" rate increases. Analogy, the more bullets the better chance to hit the target.
2-Quality players have more talent and will contribute. Analogy, as a rule, the higher quality of the bullets have more impact and are more effective.
The Bengals may have the number 1 pick in 2020, should they go QB when there are so many holes, especially on defense?
Arguments for each:
DE-Chase Young- rare talent at a position of need. Young can force defenses to plan around him and his pressure could help DB look better.
OT-Thomas-Franchise OT at a position of need. Bengals could be set for 10 years at OT with a Thomas pick.
QB-Tua/Burrow-both look elite but have question marks. Tua has durability concerns and Burrow has performed at high levels for about a year. Nevertheless, both are considered elite by most scouts.
With all things being equal, if a team needs a quality QB versus another player, I think you have to draft that QB if they are considered "elite" or franchise QB. The QB has greater impact at a position of leadership and need. If the Bengals start winning, they will lower their draft position.
With that said, several great QB are found later in the draft like Mahomes, and Brady. The problem is that the Bengals do not have the scouting department or personnel to "hit" on QB later in the draft.
A look at the Bengals drafted QB history under Mike Brown:
1992-Klingler (pick 6)-small school, bust
1995-Walsh (213)-I don't remember him.
1999-Smith (3) bust
2003-Palmer (1) Elite
2004-Bramlet (218) nothing to see here.
2006-McNeal (193) nothing...
2007-Rowe (151) nothing
2011-Dalton (35) Solid but not elite. Did not win a playoff game
2014-McCarron (164) Solid backup. Almost won playoff game. Oh the pain.
2018-Woodside (249) better known as the drunk kid, released.
2019-Finley (104) unknown but looks like a solid backup.
The one "hit" for a QB under Mike Brown was the number 1 pick in 2003 with the aid of Marvin Lewis.
By the way, the 2019 draft under Taylor is eerily similar to the 1992 draft under Shula. Looks like several misses.
Here is something else to consider. Under Mike Brown, several number 1 picks either were injured or did not significantly produce.
1992-Klingler: bust
1993-Copeland: was an average player with 24 sacks for career but that was over 8 years so he only averaged 3 sacks per year.
1994-Wilkinson: considered a 10-year generational type that under-performed and called the organization "racist" before leaving
1995-Carter: injured.
1996-Big Willie: elite
1997-Wilson: a backer that some would say under-performed
1998-Spikes: stud, but left on bad terms.
1999-Smith: bust
2000-Warrick: did not have an impact as some thought.
2001-Justin Smith: stud
2002-Jones: some thought pick was a reach. I remember him playing injured but most would not consider him elite to say the least.
2003-Palmer: elite but left team on bad terms and held out a year until traded.
2004-Perry: injured a head shaking pick for me
2005-Pollack: injured
2006-Joseph: elite but let go by the Bengals...oh the pain.
2007-Leon Hall: great guy and player
2008-Rivers: injured and bust
2009-Smith: solid RT but I would not consider elite for the 6th pick
2010-Gresham: he was picked before Gronk. Gronk was perennial pro.
2011-Green: stud, elite now injured.
2012-Zeitler and Kirkpatrick: Z was solid maybe some would consider an elite guard. Kirkpatrick is terrible.
2013-Eifert: elite but often injured.
2014-Dennard: a nickle-back and injured.
2015-Og: injured and considered a huge bust
2016-WJ3: showed some promise but has struggled with injuries.
2017-Ross: bust, injured but hey, he is still considered a rookie...
2018-Price: bust, injured, bust.
2019-Williams, unknown but injured.
Looking over this list makes me sad.
There are 4-5 top prospects in this draft that are "elite" two QB, DE, and OT, maybe WR. I can show data that supports first round prospect have an average stay in the NFL as a significant contributor compared to rounds 2-7.
There are two schools of thought regarding the draft.
1-Draft more players so that the "hit" rate increases. Analogy, the more bullets the better chance to hit the target.
2-Quality players have more talent and will contribute. Analogy, as a rule, the higher quality of the bullets have more impact and are more effective.
The Bengals may have the number 1 pick in 2020, should they go QB when there are so many holes, especially on defense?
Arguments for each:
DE-Chase Young- rare talent at a position of need. Young can force defenses to plan around him and his pressure could help DB look better.
OT-Thomas-Franchise OT at a position of need. Bengals could be set for 10 years at OT with a Thomas pick.
QB-Tua/Burrow-both look elite but have question marks. Tua has durability concerns and Burrow has performed at high levels for about a year. Nevertheless, both are considered elite by most scouts.
With all things being equal, if a team needs a quality QB versus another player, I think you have to draft that QB if they are considered "elite" or franchise QB. The QB has greater impact at a position of leadership and need. If the Bengals start winning, they will lower their draft position.
With that said, several great QB are found later in the draft like Mahomes, and Brady. The problem is that the Bengals do not have the scouting department or personnel to "hit" on QB later in the draft.
A look at the Bengals drafted QB history under Mike Brown:
1992-Klingler (pick 6)-small school, bust
1995-Walsh (213)-I don't remember him.
1999-Smith (3) bust
2003-Palmer (1) Elite
2004-Bramlet (218) nothing to see here.
2006-McNeal (193) nothing...
2007-Rowe (151) nothing
2011-Dalton (35) Solid but not elite. Did not win a playoff game
2014-McCarron (164) Solid backup. Almost won playoff game. Oh the pain.
2018-Woodside (249) better known as the drunk kid, released.
2019-Finley (104) unknown but looks like a solid backup.
The one "hit" for a QB under Mike Brown was the number 1 pick in 2003 with the aid of Marvin Lewis.
By the way, the 2019 draft under Taylor is eerily similar to the 1992 draft under Shula. Looks like several misses.
Here is something else to consider. Under Mike Brown, several number 1 picks either were injured or did not significantly produce.
1992-Klingler: bust
1993-Copeland: was an average player with 24 sacks for career but that was over 8 years so he only averaged 3 sacks per year.
1994-Wilkinson: considered a 10-year generational type that under-performed and called the organization "racist" before leaving
1995-Carter: injured.
1996-Big Willie: elite
1997-Wilson: a backer that some would say under-performed
1998-Spikes: stud, but left on bad terms.
1999-Smith: bust
2000-Warrick: did not have an impact as some thought.
2001-Justin Smith: stud
2002-Jones: some thought pick was a reach. I remember him playing injured but most would not consider him elite to say the least.
2003-Palmer: elite but left team on bad terms and held out a year until traded.
2004-Perry: injured a head shaking pick for me
2005-Pollack: injured
2006-Joseph: elite but let go by the Bengals...oh the pain.
2007-Leon Hall: great guy and player
2008-Rivers: injured and bust
2009-Smith: solid RT but I would not consider elite for the 6th pick
2010-Gresham: he was picked before Gronk. Gronk was perennial pro.
2011-Green: stud, elite now injured.
2012-Zeitler and Kirkpatrick: Z was solid maybe some would consider an elite guard. Kirkpatrick is terrible.
2013-Eifert: elite but often injured.
2014-Dennard: a nickle-back and injured.
2015-Og: injured and considered a huge bust
2016-WJ3: showed some promise but has struggled with injuries.
2017-Ross: bust, injured but hey, he is still considered a rookie...
2018-Price: bust, injured, bust.
2019-Williams, unknown but injured.
Looking over this list makes me sad.
![[Image: maXCb2f.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/maXCb2f.jpg)
-Paul Brown
“When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less.”
My album "Dragon"
https://www.humbert-lardinois.com/
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