Draft History Under Mike Brown

[*psychdoctor*]

This is something to ponder with the Bengals likely to have a high pick in 2020 draft.

There are 4-5 top prospects in this draft that are "elite"  two QB, DE, and OT, maybe WR.  I can show data that supports first round prospect have an average stay in the NFL as a significant contributor compared to rounds 2-7.  

There are two schools of thought regarding the draft.

1-Draft more players so that the "hit" rate increases.  Analogy, the more bullets the better chance to hit the target.  
2-Quality players have more talent and will contribute.  Analogy, as a rule, the higher quality of the bullets have more impact and are more effective.  

The Bengals may have the number 1 pick in 2020, should they go QB when there are so many holes, especially on defense?
Arguments for each:

DE-Chase Young- rare talent at a position of need.  Young can force defenses to plan around him and his pressure could help DB look better.
OT-Thomas-Franchise OT at a position of need.  Bengals could be set for 10 years at OT with a Thomas pick.  
QB-Tua/Burrow-both look elite but have question marks.  Tua has durability concerns and Burrow has performed at high levels for about a year.  Nevertheless, both are considered elite by most scouts.    

With all things being equal, if a team needs a quality QB versus another player, I think you have to draft that QB if they are considered "elite" or franchise QB.  The QB has greater impact at a position of leadership and need.  If the Bengals start winning, they will lower their draft position.

With that said, several great QB are found later in the draft like Mahomes, and Brady.  The problem is that the Bengals do not have the scouting department or personnel to "hit" on QB later in the draft.  

A look at the Bengals drafted QB history under Mike Brown:

1992-Klingler (pick 6)-small school, bust
1995-Walsh (213)-I don't remember him.  
1999-Smith (3) bust
2003-Palmer (1) Elite
2004-Bramlet (218) nothing to see here.
2006-McNeal (193) nothing...
2007-Rowe (151) nothing
2011-Dalton (35) Solid but not elite.  Did not win a playoff game
2014-McCarron (164) Solid backup.  Almost won playoff game.  Oh the pain.
2018-Woodside (249) better known as the drunk kid, released.  
2019-Finley (104) unknown but looks like a solid backup.

The one "hit" for a QB under Mike Brown was the number 1 pick in 2003 with the aid of Marvin Lewis.  

By the way, the 2019 draft under Taylor is eerily similar to the 1992 draft under Shula.  Looks like several misses.  

Here is something else to consider.  Under Mike Brown, several number 1 picks either were injured or did not significantly produce.  
1992-Klingler: bust
1993-Copeland: was an average player with 24 sacks for career but that was over 8 years so he only averaged 3 sacks per year.
1994-Wilkinson: considered a 10-year generational type that under-performed and called the organization "racist" before leaving
1995-Carter: injured.  
1996-Big Willie: elite
1997-Wilson: a backer that some would say under-performed
1998-Spikes: stud, but left on bad terms.
1999-Smith: bust
2000-Warrick: did not have an impact as some thought.
2001-Justin Smith: stud
2002-Jones: some thought pick was a reach.  I remember him playing injured but most would not consider him elite to say the least.
2003-Palmer: elite but left team on bad terms and held out a year until traded.
2004-Perry: injured a head shaking pick for me
2005-Pollack: injured
2006-Joseph: elite but let go by the Bengals...oh the pain.  
2007-Leon Hall: great guy and player
2008-Rivers: injured and bust
2009-Smith: solid RT but I would not consider elite for the 6th pick
2010-Gresham: he was picked before Gronk.  Gronk was perennial pro.
2011-Green: stud, elite now injured.  
2012-Zeitler and Kirkpatrick:  Z was solid maybe some would consider an elite guard.  Kirkpatrick is terrible.  
2013-Eifert: elite but often injured.  
2014-Dennard: a nickle-back and injured.  
2015-Og: injured and considered a huge bust
2016-WJ3: showed some promise but has struggled with injuries.  
2017-Ross: bust, injured but hey, he is still considered a rookie...
2018-Price: bust, injured, bust.
2019-Williams, unknown but injured.  

Looking over this list makes me sad.  

[Catmandude123]

Sooner or later they have to pick another quality first round player who can contribute. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. Until Mike Brown goes off the deep end and gets tired of looking like a bleeping idiot( if he does the other family members will have him committed) things will remain the same.

[*psychdoctor*]

(11-11-2019, 06:45 PM)Catmandude123 Wrote: Sooner or later they have to pick another quality first round player who can contribute. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. Until Mike Brown goes off the deep end and gets tired of looking like a bleeping idiot( if he does the other family members will have him committed) things will remain the same.

I guess what the history teaches us, if there is a franchise number 1 pick QB under mike brown, Bengals have to grab him.  Otherwise, they will likely blow the first pick under his leadership.  It is mind boggling.  

[TKUHL]

(11-11-2019, 04:19 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: This is something to ponder with the Bengals likely to have a high pick in 2020 draft.

There are 4-5 top prospects in this draft that are "elite"  two QB, DE, and OT, maybe WR.  I can show data that supports first round prospect have an average stay in the NFL as a significant contributor compared to rounds 2-7.  

There are two schools of thought regarding the draft.

1-Draft more players so that the "hit" rate increases.  Analogy, the more bullets the better chance to hit the target.  
2-Quality players have more talent and will contribute.  Analogy, as a rule, the higher quality of the bullets have more impact and are more effective.  

The Bengals may have the number 1 pick in 2020, should they go QB when there are so many holes, especially on defense?
Arguments for each:

DE-Chase Young- rare talent at a position of need.  Young can force defenses to plan around him and his pressure could help DB look better.
OT-Thomas-Franchise OT at a position of need.  Bengals could be set for 10 years at OT with a Thomas pick.  
QB-Tua/Burrow-both look elite but have question marks.  Tua has durability concerns and Burrow has performed at high levels for about a year.  Nevertheless, both are considered elite by most scouts.    

With all things being equal, if a team needs a quality QB versus another player, I think you have to draft that QB if they are considered "elite" or franchise QB.  The QB has greater impact at a position of leadership and need.  If the Bengals start winning, they will lower their draft position.

With that said, several great QB are found later in the draft like Mahomes, and Brady.  The problem is that the Bengals do not have the scouting department or personnel to "hit" on QB later in the draft.  

A look at the Bengals drafted QB history under Mike Brown:

1992-Klingler (pick 6)-small school, bust
1995-Walsh (213)-I don't remember him.  
1999-Smith (3) bust
2003-Palmer (1) Elite
2004-Bramlet (218) nothing to see here.
2006-McNeal (193) nothing...
2007-Rowe (151) nothing
2011-Dalton (35) Solid but not elite.  Did not win a playoff game
2014-McCarron (164) Solid backup.  Almost won playoff game.  Oh the pain.
2018-Woodside (249) better known as the drunk kid, released.  
2019-Finley (104) unknown but looks like a solid backup.

The one "hit" for a QB under Mike Brown was the number 1 pick in 2003 with the aid of Marvin Lewis.  

By the way, the 2019 draft under Taylor is eerily similar to the 1992 draft under Shula.  Looks like several misses.  

Here is something else to consider.  Under Mike Brown, several number 1 picks either were injured or did not significantly produce.  
1992-Klingler: bust
1993-Copeland: was an average player with 24 sacks for career but that was over 8 years so he only averaged 3 sacks per year.
1994-Wilkinson: considered a 10-year generational type that under-performed and called the organization "racist" before leaving
1995-Carter: injured.  
1996-Big Willie: elite
1997-Wilson: a backer that some would say under-performed
1998-Spikes: stud, but left on bad terms.
1999-Smith: bust
2000-Warrick: did not have an impact as some thought.
2001-Justin Smith: stud
2002-Jones: some thought pick was a reach.  I remember him playing injured but most would not consider him elite to say the least.
2003-Palmer: elite but left team on bad terms and held out a year until traded.
2004-Perry: injured a head shaking pick for me
2005-Pollack: injured
2006-Joseph: elite but let go by the Bengals...oh the pain.  
2007-Leon Hall: great guy and player
2008-Rivers: injured and bust
2009-Smith: solid RT but I would not consider elite for the 6th pick
2010-Gresham: he was picked before Gronk.  Gronk was perennial pro.
2011-Green: stud, elite now injured.  
2012-Zeitler and Kirkpatrick:  Z was solid maybe some would consider an elite guard.  Kirkpatrick is terrible.  
2013-Eifert: elite but often injured.  
2014-Dennard: a nickle-back and injured.  
2015-Og: injured and considered a huge bust
2016-WJ3: showed some promise but has struggled with injuries.  
2017-Ross: bust, injured but hey, he is still considered a rookie...
2018-Price: bust, injured, bust.
2019-Williams, unknown but injured.  

Looking over this list makes me sad.  

Well that was depressing!

[*psychdoctor*]

(11-17-2019, 04:53 PM)TKUHL Wrote: Well that was depressing!

I guess my summary take of this is the one elite hit under Mike Brown for quarterback was the number one overall pick in Carson Palmer.  I think they have to stay put and draft Joe Burrow.

[shanebo]

But arguably our best draft in recent memory was 2011, when we needed a QB but took overall BPA (AJ) at 4. That would suggest drafting Young or Thomas in 1 and hoping that a QB falls to 2. We generally get in trouble when we reach.

[*psychdoctor*]

(11-18-2019, 02:03 PM)shanebo Wrote: But arguably our best draft in recent memory was 2011, when we needed a QB but took overall BPA (AJ) at 4.  That would suggest drafting Young or Thomas in 1 and hoping that a QB falls to 2.  We generally get in trouble when we reach.

I think with the top pick in round 2, they could get Hurts or maybe Eason.  Now maybe Tua although with his injury history, they should pass.  I could live with Young and Eason, or Young and Hurts.  Either way, Young is the BPA at this point.  I like Thomas but there are some good tackles this draft.  I hope they get Kindley, that guy is a monster.  

[shanebo]

(11-18-2019, 06:12 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I think with the top pick in round 2, they could get Hurts or maybe Eason.  Now maybe Tua although with his injury history, they should pass.  I could live with Young and Eason, or Young and Hurts.  Either way, Young is the BPA at this point.  I like Thomas but there are some good tackles this draft.  I hope they get Kindley, that guy is a monster.  

Agree that this draft is pretty deep on the O-line.  And we have so many needs, we can almost take BPA every round.  My ideal scenario would be Young in the first and wait on a QB until 2 (or later).  Hurts is interesting -- I could see him going late round 1 or dropping to 4-5.

Although the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning toward loading up on O-line and defense and waiting until next year to get a QB.  We really need to surround our new QB with a quality NFL team before we throw him to the wolves.  No rookie QB will make any significant difference next year; hell, we could bring in Rodgers or Brady and he would suck on this team as currently constructed.  In contrast, several backup-level QBs have performed adequately this season on better teams -- Bridgewater, Minshew, Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Tannehill -- that suggests we need to build a team before springing on a QB. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-17-2019, 05:04 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I guess my summary take of this is the one elite hit under Mike Brown for quarterback was the number one overall pick in Carson Palmer.  I think they have to stay put and draft Joe Burrow.

Mike Brown loves him some "bell cow" QB, so if they're sitting there at #1OA, he's taking that QB and damn the torpedoes!

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-18-2019, 02:03 PM)shanebo Wrote: But arguably our best draft in recent memory was 2011, when we needed a QB but took overall BPA (AJ) at 4.  That would suggest drafting Young or Thomas in 1 and hoping that a QB falls to 2.  We generally get in trouble when we reach.

Yeah, but i bet you dollars to donuts that if they had a shot at Cam Newton, that would have been the pick. Knowing they were sitting at 4, they made a calculated risk that the guy they wanted (besides Cam) would be there at the top of 2, so they went with AJ. 

If they have the #1 pick, it's going to be QB. 

[*ochocincos*]

Bengals better hope for the #1 overall pick so they can't have any surprises with teams taking the players they wanted just before their pick (e.g. Ragnow getting swiped two years ago, Risner getting swiped in Rd 2 this past year).

If the Bengals are forced to "scramble," it's been resulting in some head-scratcher reacher picks like Billy Price and Drew Sample.
Wonder why teams seem to know who the Bengals are after but they don't seem to know the other teams' targets (much)?

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-21-2019, 03:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Bengals better hope for the #1 overall pick so they can't have any surprises with teams taking the players they wanted just before their pick (e.g. Ragnow getting swiped two years ago, Risner getting swiped in Rd 2 this past year).

If the Bengals are forced to "scramble," it's been resulting in some head-scratcher reacher picks like Billy Price and Drew Sample.
Wonder why teams seem to know who the Bengals are after but they don't seem to know the other teams' targets (much)?

Yep

That's what I'm afraid of. We screw around and win 3 games or something and drop to the 4th pick or so and they screw it so totally up it's not even funny.

[Catmandude123]

(11-19-2019, 09:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yeah, but i bet you dollars to donuts that if they had a shot at Cam Newton, that would have been the pick. Knowing they were sitting at 4, they made a calculated risk that the guy they wanted (besides Cam) would be there at the top of 2, so they went with AJ. 

If they have the #1 pick, it's going to be QB. 

They will be in the cat birds seat with the #1 pick. Burrows or whoever pulls ahead to be the consensus #1 will give options but the FO has proved to be inept at drafting and communicating with other teams for trades. If they screw up again it will set the team back even farther in the rebuild. I believe that being smart and getting multiple picks would help speed up the process. 

[WhodeyRay]

(11-19-2019, 12:16 PM)shanebo Wrote: Agree that this draft is pretty deep on the O-line.  And we have so many needs, we can almost take BPA every round.  My ideal scenario would be Young in the first and wait on a QB until 2 (or later).  Hurts is interesting -- I could see him going late round 1 or dropping to 4-5.

Although the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning toward loading up on O-line and defense and waiting until next year to get a QB.  We really need to surround our new QB with a quality NFL team before we throw him to the wolves.  No rookie QB will make any significant difference next year; hell, we could bring in Rodgers or Brady and he would suck on this team as currently constructed.  In contrast, several backup-level QBs have performed adequately this season on better teams -- Bridgewater, Minshew, Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Tannehill -- that suggests we need to build a team before springing on a QB. 

This is how you build for success. Good line on both sides. You ruin the even the best of QB's when you put them behind a line like this. One year behind this line and it can ruin what could have been a great qb by maki g him jumpy.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-22-2019, 01:20 AM)WhodeyRay Wrote: You ruin the even the best of QB's when you put them behind a line like this. One year behind this line and it can ruin what could have been a great qb by maki g him jumpy.

False narrative that keeps getting pushed around here. "This" line isn't going to be "this" line next year. On top of that, they're not the line that has given up the most sacks. Right now, they're 29th at 3.6 a game and that's with the 8 sack outlier @Pitt on Monday night. 

Last 6 games they've given up 1,2,2,5,2,5. That's 2.8 per game. 

As bad as "this" line is, they're not a QB killer and as i said before, the line will be different next year.