07-27-2020, 08:54 AM
It might not make much difference in our record this year, but last season we were one of the unluckiest teams in quite some time. Lots of bad teams lose lots of close games. That is why they have bad records, but even bad teams often manage to win a close game. Last year the Bengals lost 6 one-score games and did not win a single one. They were only the third team in the last 30 years to do that. I don't know who the other two teams were because I am just quoting this stat from Footballoutsiders.
Obviously you can't count on luck to improve a teams record, but the truth is that since so many NFL games are decided by one score or less luck does come into play a lot. For example stats have shown that recovering fumbles is based on random chance instead of skill. There is no consistency in fumble recovery stats to show that one team is bette than others. A team that leads the league in percentage of fumble recoveries one year is just as likely to finish last the next year as first.
And based on the statistical rule of "regression to the mean" we are due for some better luck this year.
So can I get a four leaf clover and a "WHO-DEY!"
Obviously you can't count on luck to improve a teams record, but the truth is that since so many NFL games are decided by one score or less luck does come into play a lot. For example stats have shown that recovering fumbles is based on random chance instead of skill. There is no consistency in fumble recovery stats to show that one team is bette than others. A team that leads the league in percentage of fumble recoveries one year is just as likely to finish last the next year as first.
And based on the statistical rule of "regression to the mean" we are due for some better luck this year.
So can I get a four leaf clover and a "WHO-DEY!"
