12-09-2020, 06:06 PM
(12-09-2020, 10:44 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: This.
People don't seem to realize that there are already around $20m of pay rises due from this year to next year and the cap is set to drop by a similar amount.
It's $40m cap space before we re-sign any of WJIII, Lawson, Green, Alexander, Spain etc. The rookies are going to cost about $12m of this and there is then about $28m to fill a dozen roster spaces.
To be active in the first or second wave of free agency cuts need to be made. Bobby Hart and BJ Finney save $10m. Geno saves a similar amount.
That leaves as your top 6 cap hits: Waynes, Reader, Mixon, Boyd, Burrow, Hopkins.
I didn't like the Mixon, Waynes and Hopkins deals at the time and I like them even less now. It's probably too early to back out of these deals (but not to fire whoever agreed them).
You still need to find a starting DT, DE and CB and upgrade the guard spots with the 2nd and 3rd round picks and around $20m to spend in free agency. I'd be keen on WJIII and Lawson returning if they can fit into that.
This is a pretty accurate break down.
We also need to understand that that $42 million estimate is based on 37 players under contract. Adding another 14 players adds about 9.2M, and that's only if they're minimum salary guys, which of course is not the case. (Maybe that is what you were already trying to say).
And we also need to account for the fact that the first year cap hit for newly signed players is usually less than the AAV (avg annual value) of of most of our signees. People are just throwing around avg salaries as proxies for cap hits, which is flawed. For instance, our 2020 cap hit for each of Waynes and Reader this year was around 10M, but their AAV was well more than that. This is because we gave them lower base salaries in their first year because they were taking home signing bonus money right away, which is actually what most teams do. So even if we get a big ticket item like Thuney, let's say at 13M per year, his cap hit this year won't be that much. (Maybe this is also what you were trying to say).
In fact re-reading your post a little I'm thinking we're saying the same thing. But regardless I see some over-estimation of what we can do throughout this thread.
