Brandon LaFell IS the Answer at Wide Receiver

[OrangeLacroix]

(03-29-2017, 11:11 AM)Beaker Wrote: As are all #2WRs when the #1 isn't in the lineup.

Wrong

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2017, 10:49 AM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: Brandon Lafell was less efficient When  AJ green was not in the lineup.

Fact

Less efficient than Green?

I don't know exactly what you mean because his production increased when Green was out of the line up.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2017, 11:16 AM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: Wrong

No, right.

That is generally why they are the #2 WR.  They are less efficient than the #1 WR.

[OrangeLacroix]

(03-29-2017, 05:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Less efficient than Green?

I don't know exactly what you mean because his production increased when Green was out of the line up.

Try and keep up, read. 

[OrangeLacroix]

106 targets on the season


In his first 9 games with Aj, he had 46 targets for 391 Yards

LaFell had 60 of this Targets in the last 7 games - all without Green - for 471 yards


8.5 Yards per target with AJ

7.85 Yards per target without AJ

[Housh]

(03-29-2017, 06:36 PM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: 106 targets on the season


In his first 9 games with Aj, he had 46 targets for 391 Yards

LaFell had 60 of this Targets in the last 7 games - all without Green -  for 471 yards


8.5  Yards per target with AJ

7.85 Yards per target without AJ

Not tryna start nothing but when has targets EVER been used in a conversation like this? While targets does support a debate about a WRs importance in an offense, I wouldn't use it to talk about someone's production.

Also what the definition of a target? ANY pass meant to go to them or does the ball have to travel a certain distance before it counts? Do tips matter? How are bad throws factored in?

Think yards per reception would perfectly show what your trying to say

[Shake n Blake]

(03-29-2017, 06:48 PM)Housh Wrote: Not tryna start nothing but when has targets EVER been used in a conversation like this? While targets does support a debate about a WRs importance in an offense, I wouldn't use it to talk about someone's production.

Also what the definition of a target? ANY pass meant to go to them or does the ball have to travel a certain distance before it counts? Do tips matter? How are bad throws factored in?

Think yards per reception would perfectly show what your trying to say

Targets are any pass attempt aimed at that receiver. A catch is obviously the completions. 

[Housh]

(03-29-2017, 08:39 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Targets are any pass attempt aimed at that receiver. A catch is obviously the completions. 

Yeah its a fuzzy stat to use then. Lets say a RB like Gio doesn't get a lot of targets but most of his catches go past 8 yards and hes a first down machine. His low target count would suggest hes a 4th or 5th option. But in reality hes the second option whenever hes on the field.

His YPC would definitely depict his importance to the offense as well as his number of 1st downs

[Beaker]

(03-29-2017, 06:36 PM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: 106 targets on the season


In his first 9 games with Aj, he had 46 targets for 391 Yards

LaFell had 60 of this Targets in the last 7 games - all without Green -  for 471 yards


8.5  Yards per target with AJ

7.85 Yards per target without AJ

You mean with the #1 WR in there, the opposing D is forced to account for both and is stretched farther so the #2 WR gets more yds per target. And when the #1 WR isn't in there, the D can put there best CB...or even a two deep coverage on the #2 and cause him to have less yds per target? Quite the revelation. Also the reason most #2 WRs are usually less efficient without the #1 WR in there.

[Shake n Blake]

(03-29-2017, 10:05 PM)Housh Wrote: Yeah its a fuzzy stat to use then. Lets say a RB like Gio doesn't get a lot of targets but most of his catches go past 8 yards and hes a first down machine. His low target count would suggest hes a 4th or 5th option. But in reality hes the second option whenever hes on the field.

His YPC would definitely depict his importance to the offense as well as his number of 1st downs

Yeah I'm not following this logic at all. If Andy Dalton throws to his receivers in this order...

AJ Green - 150 targets
Tyler Eifert- 110 targets
Brandon LaFell - 100 targets
Tyler Boyd - 80 targets
Gio Bernard - 65 targets

...Gio is indeed the 5th option in the pass game. What he does with the ball is irrelevant to where he is in the pecking order. Fwiw, I know you were just using Gio as an example, but WRs are almost always going to get more 1st downs than RBs.

Now I will say that it's always annoyed me that people look at "catch %" as a tribute or indictment of a receiver. If anything the catch % is more about the QB, as the "catch %" (a misleading term if there ever was one) is just the pass attempts and completions aimed at that receiver. If you take AJ Green and give him an inaccurate QB like Kaepernick, his catch % would suffer dearly. 

Also, catch % does not account for how shallow or deep the routes are. Naturally, shorter routes are completed more often. That's why RB's typically have a catch % north of 80%....while WR's typically sit somewhere around 55%. The term "catch %" should always be used in association with drops.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

Let me tell you about Brandon LaFell: He's the total package of intelligence, athleticism, and competitiveness. He might be one of the best products of The Patriot Way aka the Belichick Way and frankly I was surprised New England didn't re-sign him. Brandon never runs a bad route, he blocks hard when he doesn't get the ball, and if the Bengals don't make him a coach when his playing days are over they're totes cray-cray.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2017, 06:36 PM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: 106 targets on the season


In his first 9 games with Aj, he had 46 targets for 391 Yards

LaFell had 60 of this Targets in the last 7 games - all without Green -  for 471 yards


8.5  Yards per target with AJ

7.85 Yards per target without AJ

So his efficiency dropped when the defense treated him as the #1 WR instead of the #2 WR?

I think everyone agrees with this.  That  is one of the reason Marvin jones was mre effective,  he never had to face the defense as the #1 WR.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2017, 10:49 AM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: Brandon Lafell was less efficient When  AJ green was not in the lineup.

Fact

(03-29-2017, 11:11 AM)Beaker Wrote: As are all #2WRs when the #1 isn't in the lineup.

(03-29-2017, 11:16 AM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: Wrong

So, Orange.  Please show me that list of all the #2 WRs who became more effcient when the #1 WR was out.

Because I don't think you have a clue what you are talking about.

[Housh]

(03-30-2017, 01:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yeah I'm not following this logic at all. If Andy Dalton throws to his receivers in this order...

AJ Green - 150 targets
Tyler Eifert- 110 targets
Brandon LaFell - 100 targets
Tyler Boyd - 80 targets
Gio Bernard - 65 targets

...Gio is indeed the 5th option in the pass game. What he does with the ball is irrelevant to where he is in the pecking order. Fwiw, I know you were just using Gio as an example, but WRs are almost always going to get more 1st downs than RBs.

Now I will say that it's always annoyed me that people look at "catch %" as a tribute or indictment of a receiver. If anything the catch % is more about the QB, as the "catch %" (a misleading term if there ever was one) is just the pass attempts and completions aimed at that receiver. If you take AJ Green and give him an inaccurate QB like Kaepernick, his catch % would suffer dearly. 

Also, catch % does not account for how shallow or deep the routes are. Naturally, shorter routes are completed more often. That's why RB's typically have a catch % north of 80%....while WR's typically sit somewhere around 55%. The term "catch %" should always be used in association with drops.

Ok I get what you were doing then

In my thinking I think that just because a guy is targeted a lot doesn't mean much.  So just because Lafells targets went up and he caught more passes because of his increased targets doesn't mean he played better. It just means he was the guy who basically HAD to increase production because a guy went down. That's why things like 1st downs and YPC appeal to me because that shows you what a guy did mattered.

[OrangeLacroix]

It's a pretty simple concept - Brandon LaFell was not good last year, he was not better in the second half, he just had more balls thrown his way.

After AJ was injured, he was force-fed passes, caught a lower % of his targets and averaged less yards per target.

He had some fluke like 85 yard reception, on a 3 yard slant pass, vs the Texans that additionally grossly inflated his 'value'


To the other posters who can't comprehend a #2 WR becoming more 'efficient' when their #1 goes down, i can't help you there

It happens all the time

[Shake n Blake]

Look...LaFell was on pace for around 700 yards and 7-8 TDs before AJ even went down. That's exactly the type of production we've gotten out of every #2 WR since Housh. Simpson, Sanu, MLJ have never been big producers. I get that people want a WR in the draft and feel it may bring a new dynamic to the offense.

That doesn't require pretending LaFell was horrible last year. The numbers don't back that up. The same dudes saying LaFell had hands of stone and would drop 20 passes still can't admit they were wrong. Is LaFell all that? No, but he's at the very least an average starting #2 WR.

[depthchart]

I think stats like yards per target with AJ or without AJ can be over analyzed.
There are actually numerous Factors that go into a player's production and many of those Factors can change over time.
Competition level, offensive line play, learning curves, health to name a few.
For example, we had a New Offensive Coordinator and Lafell was on a new team last year. Andy Dalton had zero game experience working with Lafell and the schedule was Brutal at the start of last season. As the season progressed Dalton & Lafell likely felt more comfortable with certain routes he ran as a #2. Then AJ goes down and Lafell gets #1 attention garnishing different coverage from the defense and likely running some differing routes as the #1. He and Dalton had to work together in a different new way as the #1. Relearn each other in a different role.
Roll forward to this season and Lafell will get to go back to his #2 role with he and Dalton being more on the same page with certain routes Lafell will run as the #2. The Offensive Coordinator will also have a better feel for how to use Lafell. Light bulbs could go off in Lafell's and Dalton's heads as they become more Comfortable with what each other will be doing on specific plays. They are Evolving at working together so to speak.
With all that said, Lafell is a very safe 800 to 950 yard receiver in a #2 role and has shown that he could be an emergency #1 that could possibly barely crack the 1,000 yard mark maybe if a full time #1. Barely & maybe.
He has been a very good replacement for Sanu & Marvin Jones and can hold down the #2 job this season if they need him to. Especially with he and Dalton Gaining more and more Familiarity with each other.

[Shake n Blake]

To add to what depthchart said, LaFell was also playing through an injury last year, from what I've heard.

[fredtoast]

(04-03-2017, 06:15 PM)OrangeLacroix Wrote: To the other posters who can't comprehend a #2 WR becoming more 'efficient' when their #1 goes down, i can't help you there

It happens all the time

You can't help us because it does not happen.

When a number 2 WR draws more coverage as the #1 WR he becomes less efficient.

You have no clue what you are talking about.

[grampahol]

I think that the pretty simple concept that if the ball isn't thrown anywhere near any given player they don't necessarily catch the ball escapes certain people. How this happens is anyones guess. 
Lafell may or may not have a great season. I hope he has the best season of his career, but I hope the same for every player for the Bengals.  As far as I'm concerned both Lafell and Green could potentially gain 1000 yards each along with Boyde. Will they?  It's doubtful, but they're all pretty darn good players.
Something else that has to be taken into consideration is whether Andy will get enough protection to have the time to get the ball to them which also plays into the equation. With Ogbuehi on Andys blind side whoever is the reciever on that side on any given play may just be lacking in catches and targets. We'll just have to see how it plays out over the season.