Sell me on turning down trading back a few slots to stay and take YOUR player at #9

[phil413]

I understand you've earned a high pick and want quality, but is it there to the point in this class to where you turn down a nice trade: This is my current mindset.

1. If somehow Thomas, Fournette or J.Allen (with a trained staff saying he checks out) falls I run the card up to the commish. I tried to use realistic examples of top 5 talents that slip for whatever reason.

2. There are a handful of guys that may be worth the pick, but I'd really want the staff on the same page with a plan for these guys. If you're taking one of the stud safeties, I'd want to hear Paul's plan that he'd use a guy like LSU's Allen as a starter and work in 3 safety packages to combat receiving TE's and this pass happy league. I'd actually listen to you sell me on OJ Howard if you think he is a superstar that will extend the D and take pressure off the young OL.

3. More likely, there is a LARGE glut of players that are worth the #9 pick, and rather than take need you may end up with an equal player plus an extra 3rd while you help a team like the Cardinals take Watson over the rival Brownies. I'm looking at some of these mocks thinking "I'd be totally happy with sliding back to 15-17 knowing I'd have Ramczyk, Charleton, Cook or Ross.

Yes you need another team to make a trade, but if that trade pops up....am I being short sighted? I don't know that I see enough on my current likely pick of Barnett or even WR's Davis or Williams to totally pass on a trade down a few spots to land a high 3rd round pick as well. I don't care what they've done in the past with 3rds (this one could give you a free Ethan Pocic or Juju Smith) I just ask how many guys do you have on your board that could slip to 9 that make you run the card up in a hurry? It seems like there are only a few guys in this draft with that thrill factor, and a lot I'd be happy and content with, but elated if I can land that similar talent and an extra quality pick.

[NATI BENGALS]

Couple things..

Steven Jackson and David Decastro. In the years Ive been paying attention we traded back in the first and passed on those two and took players at the same position.

Im all for trading back. But im not a NFL front office guy.

Derek Barnett broke Reggie White's sack record. Consistent excellent production 3 down player. He has the top 10 value. Passing on a guy with elite production at a position of need because we can get some guy who has good size a few picks later sounds like a regrettable move.

Then you have Cam.

Cam Robinson came into the year as the #1 OT. Hell i think he came out of high school as the #1 OT in his class. He won the Outland trophy and remains the #1 OT in this draft class. I am worried as hell about Ogbuehi. You have a blue chip Alabama all world true junior monster with an attitude staring you in the face. Do you really want to trade down and wind up with the one year wonder coming off hip surgery? Worst case scenario you have a mauling guard for the next 5 years. Best case scenario you have one of the top tackles in the league.

Maybe Ogbuehi figures it out. In that case my OL would look like Ogbuehi Cam Boling Andre Fisher. Our power run game up the middle just got crazy. And our athleticism on the edges is top notch.

[Whatever]

There's 5 guys that I'm not moving down unless someone throws a Ricky Williams type deal at me. Garrett, Allen, and Thomas are tremendous talents at an area of obvious need. Hooker has ridiculous ball skills and turnover margin is your #1 stat in who wins and losses games. Ross gives us another desperately needed deep threat and covering him, AJ, and Eifert is a complete nightmare for any team.

Past that, I would be ok with trading down no lower than 15 and only if we got a 2nd out of the deal. There's a significant talent drop off after the top 50 and we won't get a player in the third that's worth moving down for unless Mixon slides that far.

I will also say that that I despise the idea of trading down for OL this year. This year's OL class is so bad, the 1st round guys are 2nd rounders almost any other year. Trading down and going OL in the 1st is basically trading a Top 10 for two seconds or a second and a third, because that's the caliber of OL talent available this year.

[BenZoo2]

If I have identified a player as being a stud or don't trade back. If I think reddick is the next lt or Corey Davis is jerry rice I don't move. If there is a group of say 6 players I see as similar then that's my move down window.


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[Bilbo Saggins]

The Bengals are currently slated to have 11 draft picks in the 2017 draft.  Marvin Lewis is already on record stating that 11 picks are not going to make the team.  In order for it to make sense to trade down from #9, you would have to be sold on a couple of things:

1.  The player selected at #9 will not be substantially better than the players available toward the end of the first.
2.  The Bengals will be able to find trade partners for trading back up into rounds 2-4 so as to not waste many of their 12-13 draft picks on players who will never make the roster.
3.  There is a glut of talent in rounds 2-4 that will make this course of action more worthwhile than taking the player who is deemed to be, at worst, the 9th best player in the draft according to the big board.

So who should they take at 9 instead of trying to load up on talent in rounds 2-4?  I have a big preference for a DE at that spot.  This year's draft seems to coincide too perfectly with a big need for them to ignore DE in the early rounds.  I'd like for them to nab one of the following three at number 9:

1.  Solomon Thomas - Stock has been rising and appears to be a very safe prospect at DE.  Great strength and should offer a steady pass rush to whoever takes him.  Looks to be gone before 9, but anything can happen.
2.  Taco Charlton - The big knock on this guy is that he is a "one year wonder."  I'd argue that his production in previous years really doesn't look too shabby for the amount of snaps that he got, it shows him being a steady contributor.  The light may have come on the past season, which indicates that he should only get better.  His size/athleticism opens the door to a very high ceiling - he's a bit of a "swing hard in case you hit" type of a pick in that regard.  If he's able to learn anything from Dunlap/MJ/Atkins he should be able to use that frame at an NFL caliber level before too long.
3.  Derek Barnett - He's been analyzed to death but at the end of the day he knows how to rack up sacks.  The false starts and lack of amazing measurables are the biggest blights on his record.  No one is going to care about that if he cleans it up and learns how to live in the backfield.

Another poster put it pretty well: three years from now no one is going to care whether somebody was taken at 9 or at the bottom of the 1st.  If you want someone at 17, why aren't you comfortable taking them at 9?  What happens if the next 8 players on the board get taken and you're left without a backup plan?  Just what are you going to do with all of those draft picks if you're looking at a roster that has a limited amount of openings?  

[Jpoore]

If williams is there you take him 1b to aj's 1a. U trade down u better get a haul and imo williams is clear cut bpa. No way you pass on him if the clear cut top de's are gone. Fearless going over the middle, wins every contested jump ball.

[*SHRacerX*]

I look at it as simple math:

Is Derek Barnett > John Ross and Jordan Willis? Or John Ross and Taylor Moton?

I think Ross has the potential to be there at mid-round. He was always a first round talent, but moved up in a lot of people's eyes after the combine. I don't see anyone reaching for him in the top 10. I am not a big fan of Williams. Way too many contested catches against guys that don't have a prayer of playing in the NFL. Against NFL CBs, a lot of those catches might get picked off. He reminds me so much of Treadwell that I am not interested.

Barnett is a great talent and fits this team perfectly. If he is there, I think they will take him. But, I look at our team and think: What makes them better? Barnett improving the pass rush from the RDE spot or a burner that takes the top off the defense AND getting an additional second rounder that could be a guy like Cam Robinson, or Jordan Willis, or Taylor Moton? I don't know. I might go with the latter.

The bottom line is: The Bengals improve either way. They are in a great spot and I am still hopeful that they could trade McCarron for a 2nd rounder that they could package with their 3rd rounder and move back in to the first to get a 5 year contract on a player like Robinson.

In summary, my dream: Slide in Rd 1, get an additional 2nd rounder. Trade AJM and get an additional 2nd rounder. Draft Ross in Rd 1. Trade back in to Rd 1 with a 2nd and our 3rd and get Cam Robinson. With the two remaining 2nd rounders get Pat Elflein and Jordan Willis.

The first two rounds would provide:

Ross, burner WR to take advantage of match-ups opposite AJ Green.
Cam Robinson, who pushes Ced at LT. If Ced wins the job, he becomes our RG of the future. Our biggest weakness now has a backup plan and talent.
Jordan Willis, speed rusher that is strong enough to play every down at RDE.
Pat Elflein, guard prospect that can push Bodine to start, or be his replacement when his contract ends after the season.

[depthchart]

(03-24-2017, 09:37 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I look at it as simple math:  

Is Derek Barnett > John Ross and Jordan Willis?  Or John Ross and Taylor Moton?

I think Ross has the potential to be there at mid-round.  He was always a first round talent, but moved up in a lot of people's eyes after the combine.  I don't see anyone reaching for him in the top 10.  I am not a big fan of Williams.  Way too many contested catches against guys that don't have a prayer of playing in the NFL.  Against NFL CBs, a lot of those catches might get picked off.  He reminds me so much of Treadwell that I am not interested.

Barnett is a great talent and fits this team perfectly.  If he is there, I think they will take him.  But, I look at our team and think:  What makes them better?  Barnett improving the pass rush from the RDE spot or a burner that takes the top off the defense AND getting an additional second rounder that could be a guy like Cam Robinson, or Jordan Willis, or Taylor Moton?  I don't know.  I might go with the latter.

The bottom line is:  The Bengals improve either way.  They are in a great spot and I am still hopeful that they could trade McCarron for a 2nd rounder that they could package with their 3rd rounder and move back in to the first to get a 5 year contract on a player like Robinson.

In summary, my dream:  Slide in Rd 1, get an additional 2nd rounder.  Trade AJM and get an additional 2nd rounder.  Draft Ross in Rd 1.  Trade back in to Rd 1 with a 2nd and our 3rd and get Cam Robinson.  With the two remaining 2nd rounders get Pat Elflein and Jordan Willis.  

The first two rounds would provide:  

Ross, burner WR to take advantage of match-ups opposite AJ Green.
Cam Robinson, who pushes Ced at LT.  If Ced wins the job, he becomes our RG of the future.  Our biggest weakness now has a backup plan and talent.
Jordan Willis, speed rusher that is strong enough to play every down at RDE.
Pat Elflein, guard prospect that can push Bodine to start, or be his replacement when his contract ends after the season.

Good point.
People often forget the second player we would get in a Trade Down.
Barnett will need to be a consistent 10 plus sack guy to justify him as a top 10 pick.
If Barnett is less than that the Trade Down would have likely been a better move for 2 starting caliber players instead of 1.