2017 Reds Season Day by Day Fan Feedback

[CJD]

This feels just like last year where we started 14-19 (not great, but close to .500) but then went on a 3-16 streak to end May at 17-35, effectively ending our season...

[Yojimbo]

Looks like the end of the road for Arroyo (shoulder problems) and with the DA of Mike Wizowski, we might be seeing Reed and Stephenson again until Bailey and a Finnegan get back in the next couple of weeks.

[samhain]

Dick Williams has done a nice job rebuilding this team. Almost all of his trades have ended in the Reds favor, save the Chapman move which wasn't necessarily his fault.

That said, I think it's time for him to start looking at adding non-Feldman/Arroyo caliber starters this offseason. Our young pitchers look to be vastly overrated by Reds fans. None of Garrett, Reed, or Stephenson have looked capable of being a MLB starter in the near future. If he wants to win in 2018 or possibly even 19, it's time to either package some prospects for a TOR arm, or sign one on the open market. The cavalry doesn't look to be arriving from any internal source soon.

[Goalpost]

Reds starters now have an astonishing 6.09 era. As much as the bullpen has improved, does anyone think this team might have been better off with Lorenzen and Iglesias starting. I realize that then the bullpen would suck again, but geez.

[CJD]

(06-19-2017, 10:32 AM)samhain Wrote: Dick Williams has done a nice job rebuilding this team.  Almost all of his trades have ended in the Reds favor, save the Chapman move which wasn't necessarily his fault.

That said, I think it's time for him to start looking at adding non-Feldman/Arroyo caliber starters this offseason.  Our young pitchers look to be vastly overrated by Reds fans.  None of Garrett, Reed, or Stephenson have looked capable of being a MLB starter in the near future.  If he wants to win in 2018 or possibly even 19, it's time to either package some prospects for a TOR arm, or sign one on the open market.  The cavalry doesn't look to be arriving from any internal source soon.

To be fair to Garrett, he's had quite a few good starts. 6 of his 11 starts are quality starts (at least 6 IP, 3ER or less).


It's just when things go bad for him, they go really bad. Which, to an extent, is acceptable for a rookie.

He was dropped to the minors after starting 3-2 and an ERA of 4.25 (bloated by a 3 HR game against Milwaukee when they were raking) with 5 Quality Starts in 6 starts in order to preserve his arm and then came back up and was rusty from the 2 weeks off. 4 bad starts with the 4th ending after an inning due to an apparent injury. But he came back 5 days later and threw his 6th quality start.

We'll see how he pitches tomorrow.

I don't think he is a top of the rotation arm, but I think he fits perfectly into a #2 or #3 role with upside.

I agree that Reed and Stephenson are very discouraging. Stephenson has only one above average pitch and he can't seem to locate it and Reed is just...who even knows what's going on with him. Reed can have some good outings but then just implode in other appearances. His only truly poor performance this year was against Chicago, as they have not given him much of a chance to start.

 I don't think he's a starter though. Something about the first inning just crushes him. In his 11 career starts, he has an ERA in the first inning of 15.55. Granted, his ERA for the rest of the innings is 6.28, but a lot of that may just be the snowball effect of how badly he plays in the first inning. 

If he could learn how to start games already warmed up and ready, he could greatly improve his ability to start games. He has the stuff necessary to be a good starter. I think it's all mental with him.

I am hopeful that Castillo and Mahle have a chance of being future #1 or #2 starters once they get to the Majors. Mahle I am particularly excited about. He seems to be a Bronson Arroyo type technician but with an actual fastball. He's got a lot of potential. I just hope he achieves it.

[Yojimbo]

Should the Reds start selling? I don't think this is our year to compete with the starting pitching, so I'd be looking at dealing the short term vets with any value. My list:

Cozart (quad injury doesn't help)
Feldman (pitching waaaay better than I thought he would)
Adleman (could get a mid tier prospect, maybe)
Suarez? (Could get really good prospects and clear the way for Senzel)
Schebler? (Don't think his value is going to be much higher and he's not the future here, Winker is)

My untouchables list:
Votto
Hamilton
Peraza
Duvall
Garrett
Iglesias
Lorenzen
Finnegan
Gennett

[CJD]

I agree that we should sell at the deadline.

However, what have Peraza and Hamilton done to make it on your untouchable list? If someone offered us a good deal for either of them, I'd cough them up immediately. The potential is high but god they are so incredibly frustrating when not hitting. And with as little power as they have, they are basically entirely reliant on consistently hitting singles to be worth their position in the line up. Considering both of them are hitting around .250, they just aren't cutting it as low power hitters. a .600 OPS is just absolutely dreadful and both of them have been around that number all year (and in their entire careers, really.)

Peraza is still young, so there's still hope for him, but Hamilton is turning 27 in a few months. He will cost a lot of money very soon and it'll be painful paying the price he'll receive for as little production as he provides.

I would love if we could trade Cozart and Feldman for anything of future value.

[Yojimbo]

(06-20-2017, 12:13 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I agree that we should sell at the deadline.

However, what have Peraza and Hamilton done to make it on your untouchable list? If someone offered us a good deal for either of them, I'd cough them up immediately. The potential is high but god they are so incredibly frustrating when not hitting. And with as little power as they have, they are basically entirely reliant on consistently hitting singles to be worth their position in the line up. Considering both of them are hitting around .250, they just aren't cutting it as low power hitters. a .600 OPS is just absolutely dreadful and both of them have been around that number all year (and in their entire careers, really.)

Peraza is still young, so there's still hope for him, but Hamilton is turning 27 in a few months. He will cost a lot of money very soon and it'll be painful paying the price he'll receive for as little production as he provides.

I would love if we could trade Cozart and Feldman for anything of future value.

They are both ascending players with long-term team control. I think Hamilton has shown A LOT of improvement since his rookie year. His defense is the best in the league and his base stealing is too. I don't think he'll ever be a .300 hitter, he just needs to work on taking more walks. As far as Peraza, he's basically a rookie, you need to lower your expectations some.

[CJD]

(06-20-2017, 10:25 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: They are both ascending players with long-term team control. I think Hamilton has shown A LOT of improvement since his rookie year. His defense is the best in the league and his base stealing is too. I don't think he'll ever be a .300 hitter, he just needs to work on taking more walks. As far as Peraza, he's basically a rookie, you need to lower your expectations some.

I'm not the one who put them on an untouchable list . I was just asking what about them makes them, in your eyes, untouchable. Like I said, they both have potential, but we haven't gotten anything out of either nor have we seen either fulfill any portion of that potential.

If another team became enamored with one of them and was offering a premium prospect in exchange, I don't see why we wouldn't do it.

And whether Hamilton has improved or not since his rookie year is debatable. In his rookie year, his line was .250/.292/.355/.647.

This year he is currently at .244/.296/.319/.615

In his rookie year, he struck out 117 times, walked 34 times and had a WAR of 2.6.

This year, he is on pace for 148 strikeouts and 47 walks and has a WAR of 0.1.

His walks have increased, but so have his strike outs.

And he's a flashy defender, but he is the 30th ranked CF in DWAR.

I won't deny that he's fun to watch, but I think the improvement you've seen is mainly due to bias.

[Yojimbo]

(06-20-2017, 10:53 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I'm not the one who put them on an untouchable list . I was just asking what about them makes them, in your eyes, untouchable. Like I said, they both have potential, but we haven't gotten anything out of either nor have we seen either fulfill any portion of that potential.

If another team became enamored with one of them and was offering a premium prospect in exchange, I don't see why we wouldn't do it.

And whether Hamilton has improved or not since his rookie year is debatable. In his rookie year, his line was .250/.292/.355/.647.

This year he is currently at .244/.296/.319/.615

In his rookie year, he struck out 117 times, walked 34 times and had a WAR of 2.6.

This year, he is on pace for 148 strikeouts and 47 walks and has a WAR of 0.1.

His walks have increased, but so have his strike outs.

And he's a flashy defender, but he is the 30th ranked CF in DWAR.

I won't deny that he's fun to watch, but I think the improvement you've seen is mainly due to bias.

Why they are untouchable is because they are young, yes 27 is young in baseball, and the team has cheap control over them for several more years. Hamilton is struggling right now, but his 2nd and third years as a pro were incrementally better than his rookie year. I'd like to see him give up switch hitting and get more days off to prevent injuries. If we had an elite CF prospect waiting in the minors, I'd be more inclined to trade him, but we don't.

I think the team needs to start competing and retaining core players again. The only guys that should be on the trading block are guys that are FA's at the end of this year or are blocking top prospects from moving up from the minors, like Winker and Senzel.

[CJD]

(06-20-2017, 11:53 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Why they are untouchable is because they are young, yes 27 is young in baseball, and the team has cheap control over them for several more years. Hamilton is struggling right now, but his 2nd and third years as a pro were incrementally better than his rookie year. I'd like to see him give up switch hitting and get more days off to prevent injuries. If we had an elite CF prospect waiting in the minors, I'd be more inclined to trade him, but we don't.

I think the team needs to start competing and retaining core players again. The only guys that should be on the trading block are guys that are FA's at the end of this year or are blocking top prospects from moving up from the minors, like Winker and Senzel.

27 is young for a guy like Votto who has the ability to hit the ball. Hamilton is 27 and his entire game is his speed. If you look at the stolen base numbers each year, there are basically no players over 30 in the top 10 for stolen bases. Brandon Phillips did it in 2015 but it's not very common otherwise.

I am all about optimism about our guys. But I just feel like Hamilton has been such a monumental disappointment on just about every level of his career, I would kind of love to see him moved before everyone else realizes how bad he is at swinging a bat.

I keep waiting for that Votto mentorship to kick in but it just hasn't. 

As for his other years...Well...calling them incrementally better than his rookie year is, again, debatable.

He took a step down in BA, OBP, Slugging and WAR in his sophomore year. Not unexpected. Sophomore slumps aren't uncommon. He did improve his base stealing, as he was caught way less (23 CS in rookie year vs 8 in sophomore year)

If we're honest, his only good year was last year in which he hit .260/.321/.343/.664

I know people were optimistic about him because they thought he'd build on those numbers and maybe reach .330 or .340 OBP this year.

He has not.

In fact, even his best year is still below average for a lead off hitter. In 2014, the average OBP for a leadoff hitter was .326. That was down from 2013, in which it was .329. Between 2009 and 2012, the average OBP for a lead off hitter was somewhere between .324 and .347.

So, Hamilton's career year is still below average. His career average is over 20 points below average (.297 career OBP).

And that doesn't even take into account his higher than average strikeout rate. In his career, he's only had one year where his K% was below 20%, 2015 when he was averaging .226.

Every other year, he's been between 20 and 24% K. The average between 2009 and 2014 for lead off hitters was between 15.5% and 17.3%

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/25/8124365/leadoff-hitters-the-book-declining-production

I keep trying to find statistics that would trend towards him improving, but the further I dig, the more damning things I find about him. I actually dislike him more after this discussion than I did before looking into all this haha.

[Yojimbo]

(06-20-2017, 02:01 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: 27 is young for a guy like Votto who has the ability to hit the ball. Hamilton is 27 and his entire game is his speed. If you look at the stolen base numbers each year, there are basically no players over 30 in the top 10 for stolen bases. Brandon Phillips did it in 2015 but it's not very common otherwise.

I am all about optimism about our guys. But I just feel like Hamilton has been such a monumental disappointment on just about every level of his career, I would kind of love to see him moved before everyone else realizes how bad he is at swinging a bat.

I keep waiting for that Votto mentorship to kick in but it just hasn't. 

As for his other years...Well...calling them incrementally better than his rookie year is, again, debatable.

He took a step down in BA, OBP, Slugging and WAR in his sophomore year. Not unexpected. Sophomore slumps aren't uncommon. He did improve his base stealing, as he was caught way less (23 CS in rookie year vs 8 in sophomore year)

If we're honest, his only good year was last year in which he hit .260/.321/.343/.664

I know people were optimistic about him because they thought he'd build on those numbers and maybe reach .330 or .340 OBP this year.

He has not.

In fact, even his best year is still below average for a lead off hitter. In 2014, the average OBP for a leadoff hitter was .326. That was down from 2013, in which it was .329. Between 2009 and 2012, the average OBP for a lead off hitter was somewhere between .324 and .347.

So, Hamilton's career year is still below average. His career average is over 20 points below average (.297 career OBP).

And that doesn't even take into account his higher than average strikeout rate. In his career, he's only had one year where his K% was below 20%, 2015 when he was averaging .226.

Every other year, he's been between 20 and 24% K. The average between 2009 and 2014 for lead off hitters was between 15.5% and 17.3%

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/25/8124365/leadoff-hitters-the-book-declining-production

I keep trying to find statistics that would trend towards him improving, but the further I dig, the more damning things I find about him. I actually dislike him more after this discussion than I did before looking into all this haha.

Where he should be in the batting order is a different debate and I agree he shouldn't be leading off. I'd probably slot him in at 7. I think he has the talent but not the consistency. There are stretches where he hits over .300 for a couple weeks and then he gets dinged up and falls apart. This most recent stretch of futility is coming from a thumb injury.

I think the future at leadoff is Peraza or Winker.

[Yojimbo]

Could our pitching woes be catcher related? I don't know much about the role of a catcher in implementing strategies. I have seen scenarios where pitchers look completely different depending on who their catchers is.

[BFritz21]

(06-21-2017, 12:15 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Could our pitching woes be catcher related? I don't know much about the role of a catcher in implementing strategies. I have seen scenarios where pitchers look completely different depending on who their catchers is.

Baseball is boring but there's no other sports to watch in summer besides for golf and the Reds aren't even good enough to be on regular TV around here.

The burden of living in Cincinnati.

[kevin]

(06-21-2017, 12:15 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Could our pitching woes be catcher related? I don't know much about the role of a catcher in implementing strategies. I have seen scenarios where pitchers look completely different depending on who their catchers is.

our pitching is trade and injury related, which left the cupboard bare. 

Look up D stats and see who has best average on throwing out runners and you may be surprised to see in MLB it is Barnhart.  Barnhart gives Reds D up the middle when Cozart and Hamilton in line-up.  Sparky Anderson demanded D UP THE MIDDLE. ....Now I know Reds are paying Mesoraco a LOT, so he will play a LOT. Sorry about his injury, but so far, he stinks. Again, I'm sure struggling from injury and off a couple years. Pretty rusty. ....Still, Reds are benching one of the best defensive catchers in MLB if you look up the stats and numbers. 

I have to add, there are no Johnny Bench's out there or even a Bo Diaz or Joe Oliver and not one MLB catcher is putting up great D numbers.  This may be the worst era of defensive catchers in my lifetime going back to 1960's.  There are some catchers who can hit a little but even at that, nothing great.  Defensive numbers are just awful.  Hamilton could steal 100 bases on today's catchers, They Stink....Above all else you want D out of catcher and shortstop.  Today's catchers are lousy compared to all the good catchers over the years.  I can't point to one catcher this year and say he is a gold glove with a rifle arm. Not one.  Barnhart numbers say he is best D catcher in MLB in 2017.  Yet he will now mostly ride the bench with high paid Mesoraco back and batting .230 something....I know, I know, he has been injured.....Besides Bench there was Freehan and Grote and Hundley and Fisk and then came Sundberg and decades of top D catchers. Now in 2017, what happened ? Why no great defensive catchers ?

[Yojimbo]

(06-23-2017, 12:05 AM)kevin Wrote: our pitching is trade and injury related, which left the cupboard bare. 

Look up D stats and see who has best average on throwing out runners and you may be surprised to see in MLB it is Barnhart.  Barnhart gives Reds D up the middle when Cozart and Hamilton in line-up.  Sparky Anderson demanded D UP THE MIDDLE. ....Now I know Reds are paying Mesoraco a LOT, so he will play a LOT. Sorry about his injury, but so far, he stinks. Again, I'm sure struggling from injury and off a couple years. Pretty rusty. ....Still, Reds are benching one of the best defensive catchers in MLB if you look up the stats and numbers. 

I have to add, there are no Johnny Bench's out there or even a Bo Diaz or Joe Oliver and not one MLB catcher is putting up great D numbers.  This may be the worst era of defensive catchers in my lifetime going back to 1960's.  There are some catchers who can hit a little but even at that, nothing great.  Defensive numbers are just awful.  Hamilton could steal 100 bases on today's catchers, They Stink....Above all else you want D out of catcher and shortstop.  Today's catchers are lousy compared to all the good catchers over the years.  I can't point to one catcher this year and say he is a gold glove with a rifle arm. Not one.  Barnhart numbers say he is best D catcher in MLB in 2017.  Yet he will now mostly ride the bench with high paid Mesoraco back and batting .230 something....I know, I know, he has been injured.....Besides Bench there was Freehan and Grote and Hundley and Fisk and then came Sundberg and decades of top D catchers.  Now in 2017, what happened ?  Why no great defensive catchers ?

I'm not questioning defense or offensive skills, those are easy to see in a catcher. I'm asking about ability to call a game. Know the hitters tendency and call the right pitches. Know which pitches are working well that day for that particular pitcher. Know when to take a trip to the mound to talk strategy or give the pitcher a breather. That kind of stuff isn't as easy to see for the average fan like myself.

[kevin]

Reds TV announcers tonight saying Reds bullpen is great and Nationals bullpen is bad so Reds should have won, but they lost.....I don't know what Reds announcers are talking about. I don't see Reds bullpen as being all that great. National are in First Place so their bullpen must be better than Reds announcers think....I can tell Reds announcers that it could very well be Dodgers and Nationals in NL Championship unless Rockies get in there. Dodgers and Nationals have so much pitching. Nationals though have Zimmerman, Harper, Murphy and just a ton of hitting. ....So since Dodgers took 6 games from Reds, The Reds announcers better get a grip that Washington might be even better than the Dodgers. ...I'm not one bit surprised Washington came back and won the game with Harper getting the hit and Zimmerman on deck if he didn't. .....Oh, I'm not ruling out the Cubs pitchers getting it together and Cubs hitters in last 3 months of the year. The NL Central is up for grabs to whoever gets hot. World Champ Cubs and Manager Madden may turn it on last 3 months. Still, for pitching so far in 2017, I like Dodgers and Nationals but Nationals also have great hitting. 2017 Nationals could be one of better teams ever in MLB because look at that pitching and hitting. This may be their year. I'm not surprised they beat Reds tonight.

OH NO...I just looked ahead at Reds schedule....After Nationals it is Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Yankees, Marlins and then August. I think most of these teams will have me very, very, very glad it is then time for August and Preseason Football.

[Yojimbo]

Nice debut for Castillo. We might finally have a pitching prospect on that pans out. He needs to limit those walks, but a 100 mph fastball with movement is a rookie pitcher's best friend.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-24-2017, 12:40 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Nice debut for Castillo. We might finally have a pitching prospect on that pans out. He needs to limit those walks, but a 100 mph fastball with movement is a rookie pitcher's best friend.

..

[*bengalfan74*]

So much for H. Bailey's return being any kinda light at the end of the tunnel. He'll either be totally ineffective or be back on the DL very soon.

Either way, at what point do the Reds cut their losses and move on ?