How many TD passes will Dalton throw in his career?

[*ochocincos*]

I saw an interesting article on nfl.com talking about who between Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Manning will come out on top in terms of career TD passes and how many (if any) of them will break into the top 10 (article here: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000502885/article/eli-manning-philip-rivers-or-ben-roethlisberger-most-career-td-passes)

All three of these QBs have been playing for 11 seasons, throwing for 259 (Manning), 252 (Rivers), and 251 TDs (Roethlisberger). They all probably have (at least) three more NFL seasons ahead of them, so they will all likely break 300 passing TDs and crack the top 10.

This got me thinking...what is Dalton at and how high could he feasibly get to by the end of his career?
Currently, Dalton is at 99 TD passes, which after four seasons equates to 24.75 pass TDs per season. That average is higher than all three of the above mentioned QBs, but that average can be hard to sustain throughout the course of one's career.

I looked at the list of the top 250 QBs in NFL history regarding career pass TDs (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_td_career.htm), and nearly every QB in the top 50 has played through at least 11 seasons. If Dalton were to keep up his pace, he would have 272 pass TDs after 11 seasons. Given his overall clean bill of health, he could have a long enough career that he could exceed 300 pass TDs.

Given all of the above, about how many career TDs do you think Dalton will have by the time his career is done?

[Utts]

I say under 200 since he probably won't be a starter after this season.

[Vas Deferens]

(07-22-2015, 01:42 PM)Utts Wrote: I say under 200 since he probably won't be a starter after this season.

Agree.  Might not be this season, but he'll be sunsetted before sniffing 200

[*Nately120*]

(07-22-2015, 01:42 PM)Utts Wrote: I say under 200 since he probably won't be a starter after this season.

So he could throw 100 TDs this year and still stay south of 200.  Now THAT would be interesting!

[XenoMorph]

(07-22-2015, 01:42 PM)Utts Wrote: I say under 200 since he probably won't be a starter after this season.

He will most likely be the starter here in 2016

with multiple healthy recieving options i think his numbers of TDs likely to equal or pass 2013's

[TSwigZ]

I say under 200 bc after this season he'll get a stunt with a team desperate for a QB and that'll fail then he'll be a career back up

[*Nately120*]

(07-22-2015, 01:49 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: He will most likely be the starter here in 2016

with multiple healthy recieving options i think his numbers of TDs likely to equal or pass 2013's

The thing takes some of the luster off the oft-lauded 33 TD season that was 2013 is that Dalton attempted a career-high 586 passes (over 100 more attempts than last season) and threw a career high 20 INTs and while it is entirely possible Dalton becomes more efficient with his passing I have to feel like attempting that many passes in 2015 means our running game or defense went belly-up.

I just don't see Dalton having 500 or so attempts but throwing 30+ TDs.

[XenoMorph]

(07-22-2015, 02:10 PM)Nately120 Wrote: The thing takes some of the luster off the oft-lauded 33 TD season that was 2013 is that Dalton attempted a career-high 586 passes (over 100 more attempts than last season) and threw a career high 20 INTs and while it is entirely possible Dalton becomes more efficient with his passing I have to feel like attempting that many passes in 2015 means our running game or defense went belly-up.

I just don't see Dalton having 500 or so attempts but throwing 30+ TDs.

with J hill i doubt he has 500 passes but who knows they might do more quick short passes to guys like Gio and that count as a pass but was really like 1 yard.

But even with less passes the improved run game should open up the field for WRs a bit. And with Actual Healthy and more starting caliber targets available it should be more successful overall.

But we wont know till january how it all goes. I expect his best statistical season yet. And they should be able to attack the red zone thru the air more often as well if everyone can stay on the field.

That plus if the Defense turns it back around they should get some extra oppertunities

[Johnny Cupcakes]

It really depend on if the Bengals stick with him. If he plays out his entire contract here averaging what he's thrown so far in his career, he should get somewhere around 225.

If the Bengals end up looking elsewhere at QB, he's still going to hang around the NFL and get jobs as a starter. There are a shit ton of QBs who float around for years that are much worse than Andy.

If he becomes a more consistent and better player, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't crack 300. That's 8 more years of averaging 25 per year. I'm just not banking on him being consistent enough to start for 8 more seasons.

[*Nately120*]

(07-22-2015, 02:42 PM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: It really depend on if the Bengals stick with him.  If he plays out his entire contract here averaging what he's thrown so far in his career, he should get somewhere around 225.

If the Bengals end up looking elsewhere at QB, he's still going to hang around the NFL and get jobs as a starter.  There are a shit ton of QBs who float around for years that are much worse than Andy.

If he becomes a more consistent and better player, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't crack 300.  That's 8 more years of averaging 25 per year.  I'm just not banking on him being consistent enough to start for 8 more seasons.

Hey, if Dave Kreig could be in the NFL for 18 seasons so can Dalton!

[GreenCornBengal]

I voted 300 and above, why?

One of Andy's greatest attributes is his durability, which I think plays a key role in this question.

As much as you hate Andy Dalton, he is going to be around for a while. Whether it is here or as a QB somewhere else.

I love when people talk about him like he is a backup

Andy has a long career ahead of him in the NFL.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-22-2015, 01:42 PM)Utts Wrote: I say under 200 since he probably won't be a starter after this season.

81% of the board voted that Dalton ranks between 13-20 among NFL QB's. A QB of that caliber will be starting for quite some time.

If not here, then possibly for the Jets, Texans, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos or some other QB needy team. 

[Utts]

(07-22-2015, 04:22 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 81% of the board voted that Dalton ranks between 13-20 among NFL QB's. A QB of that caliber will be starting for quite some time.

If not here, then possibly for the Jets, Texans, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos or some other QB needy team. 

I don't see it.

[*Nately120*]

(07-22-2015, 04:22 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 81% of the board voted that Dalton ranks between 13-20 among NFL QB's. A QB of that caliber will be starting for quite some time.

If not here, then possibly for the Jets, Texans, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos or some other QB needy team. 

Oh man, Dalton to the Browns would be nothing short of interesting.  AZ might be interesting as it would make Dalton the Timothy B. Schmidt to Carson Palmer's Randy Meisner...and I can't believe I just made THAT reference!

[wolfkaosaun]

(07-22-2015, 04:46 PM)Utts Wrote: I don't see it.

And why don't you see him being a starter any longer in this league?

[Who Dey Time]

(07-22-2015, 04:46 PM)Utts Wrote: I don't see it.

I recommend that you go see the optometrist.

Dalton will be a starting QB for several more years.  Most likely, a good chunk of those years he will be the Bengals starting QB.  It is really time for the Dalton haters to get over this fact and find some other cause to blindly rail against.  

[Shake n Blake]

(07-22-2015, 04:52 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Oh man, Dalton to the Browns would be nothing short of interesting.  AZ might be interesting as it would make Dalton the Timothy B. Schmidt to Carson Palmer's Randy Meisner...and I can't believe I just made THAT reference!

Dalton would be the best QB the Browns have had since Kosar. Of course, that's not saying a whole lot. But still, I'd hate to see the Browns with a legit QB because that's really the only thing keeping them back from competing with the rest of the division.

As for AZ, I'm assuming CP only has a couple years left. If I were the Cards, I'd take a young Dalton over an old CP. They're pretty much equals at this point aside from age.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-22-2015, 04:56 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: And why don't you see him being a starter any longer in this league?

I don't see why anyone would think that. Guys like Fitzpatrick, Hoyer and Bradford find jobs every year because there just aren't enough good starters to go around. Even the biggest Dalton bashers should admit that Dalton is better than those guys. Barring injury or a sudden change, the likelihood of there being 32 better QB's than Dalton is slim to none.

Some of these rookie QB's will bust. Guys like Peyton, Brady and Brees will retire. Dalton will have plenty of suitors if we move on from him.

[CJD]

I think he'll throw about 100 over the next 4 seasons.

Then he'll be relegated to back up duty for the rest of his career.

So 200-224.

If he hits a hot streak for a few years, he may get over 225.

[Bengal Dude]

(07-22-2015, 05:20 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't see why anyone would think that. Guys like Fitzpatrick, Hoyer and Bradford find jobs every year because there just aren't enough good starters to go around. Even the biggest Dalton bashers should admit that Dalton is better than those guys. Barring injury or a sudden change, the likelihood of there being 32 better QB's than Dalton is slim to none.

Some of these rookie QB's will bust. Guys like Peyton, Brady and Brees will retire. Dalton will have plenty of suitors if we move on from him.

Dalton will be in the league for a while. Whether he's with us after this year, I don't know, but I believe he'll get to 200+ TDs. If we move on, then I see Dalton becoming a guy who teams would bring in to hold the spot until they find a franchise QB. Build a great team and then look for your QB. Who knows? If Dalton leaves here, maybe it'll ignite something in him and he'll turn into a franchise QB for someone else.